17 March Daily technical trader


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17 March Daily technical trader

  1. 1. Page 1 of 2 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: QE INDEX AND KEY STOCKS TO CONSIDER QE Index: Short-Term – Downmove The QE Index extended its losses for the fourth consecutive session and ended on a lower note. The index witnessed a gap-down opening and breached its important support of 11,338.41 after registering an intraday high of 11,388.39, as the bears once again overpowered the bulls. We believe the index may continue to drift lower and test 11,300.0, as long as it trades below 11,338.41. However, a close above this level may bring bulls back in action. Qatari Investors Group: Short-Term – Upmove QIGD cleared the resistance of QR52.40 and managed to close above after failing in the last two attempts. With volumes also picking up on the rise, we believe the stock may now approach toward QR54.0. A move above this level may spark additional buying interest and push the stock to test QR56.20. Meanwhile, both indicators are providing bullish signals, indicating a possibility of a short-term rally. However, a dip below QR52.40 may halt its upmove. Al Rayan Islamic Index: Short-Term – Neutral The QERI Index continued its upmove for the second consecutive day and tagged a new all-time high of 3,464.89, but later trimmed its gains to close at 3,441.64. This action reveals that the index may be due for a consolidation or decline as there was exhaustion on the part of buyers at higher price. The index has an immediate support at 3,432.26. Any dip below this level may pull the index further down. However, the index may resume its rally if it closes above 3,464.89. Nakilat: Short-Term – Downmove QGTS failed to move above the resistance of QR21.44 and declined yesterday. The stock has been trading along the descending trendline over the past few days and is in a declining mode. We believe until the stock trades below this resistance, the upmove seems to be in jeopardy. With both the indicators moving down, QGTS could drift lower to test the 55-day moving average followed by QR20.90. However, a close above QR21.44 may attract buyers. Industries Qatar: Short-Term – Bounce Back IQCD tested the support of QR175.0 and rebounded for the second consecutive day yesterday. We believe the continued respect of its support at QR175.0 is likely to signal an upmove and the stock may head toward its immediate resistance of QR178.30. Meanwhile, the RSI has stalled from its declining mode, indicating a possibility of a further rise. However, a dip below the QR175.0 level may result in bearish implications and a pullback toward the QR173.0 level. Doha Bank: Short-Term – Downmove DHBK has been experiencing selling pressure over the past few days and is in a declining mode. We believe the stock may continue to weaken further and retrace toward its immediate support of QR56.20. The current trend implies further correction with both the RSI and the MACD in a downtrend mode, showing no immediate trend reversal signs. However, if the stock manages to climb above the QR57.40 level, it may provide some relief.
  2. 2. Contacts Saugata Sarkar Ahmed M. Shehada Keith Whitney Sahbi Kasraoui QNB Financial Services SPC Head of Research Head of Trading Head of Sales Manager - HNWI Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666 Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6535 Tel: (+974) 4476 6533 Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 PO Box 24025 saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa ahmed.shehada@qnbfs.com.qa keith.whitney@qnbfs.com.qa sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange; QNB is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. While this publication has been prepared with the utmost degree of care by our analysts, QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS. Page 2 of 2 *These stocks are today’s suggested ideas Overall Methodology: The charts and descriptions on Page 1 provide an indicative view of the future direction of the equities mentioned. The table on page 2 has been provided to denote historical movements in certain stocks. The historical trend analysis uses 21- and 55- day SMAs for indicating short-term and long-term trends, respectively. Based on these SMAs, the historical direction of the trend is denoted as UP, DOWN or FLAT. Selection of Key Stocks of the Day: Key stocks’ selection is based on our analysis of 19 members of the QE Index (excludes QNBK QD). Analysis includes identifying trends (short-term as well as long-term), patterns and support/resistance levels. Trend Direction: The methods used to determine trend direction are subjective in nature. We use 21-day SMA and 55-day SMA, absolute price movements, price movements relative to SMAs and accurately drawn trend lines and chart patterns to determine the short- and long-term trends. Investment Horizon: The definition of short term and long term depends upon investors’ preferences and their investment objectives. As a rule of thumb, the time horizon for traders/short-term trend is 1-3 weeks while it is 1-3 months for investors/long-term trend. Combining Technical and Fundamental Analysis: Investors can combine technical analysis (TA) with fundamental analysis (FA) to maximize their investment returns. While the “True Value” of stocks could be estimated by FA, the entry and exit timings could be fine tuned using technical analysis to benefit from short-term movements in stock prices. Trading Tactics: The trend direction should be analyzed based on the time-horizon of your investments. In general, investors attempt selling close to resistance levels during a downtrend and attempt buying close to support levels during uptrend. Definitions: 1> Simple Moving Average (SMA): A SMA is the average of the closing price of a security for a given period. 2> RSI (Relative Strength Index): A technical momentum indicator that ranges from 0 to 100 and compares the stock’s recent price movements by evaluating recent gains and losses. Stocks with RSI above 70 could be considered overbought and below 30 could be considered oversold. If the RSI falls below 70, it is a bearish signal. On the other hand, if the RSI rises above 30 it is considered bullish. We use a RSI of 14 days. 3> MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD denotes the relationship between two moving averages, which is used to spot changes in strength, direction, momentum and duration of a stock price trend. The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-day EMA. A nine-day EMA of the MACD, called the signal line, is also plotted on top of the MACD, functioning as a trigger for buy/sell signals. The MACD line above the signal line provides a positive signal and vice versa. Name (Ticker) Last Close Trend Support Resistance Short Term Long Term First Second First Second Qatar Exchange Index (QE Index) 11,331.05 DOWN UP 11,300.00 11,250.00 11,400.00 11,484.45 Al Rayan Islamic Index (QERI Index) 3,441.64 UP UP 3,432.26 3,409.71 3,458.51 3,470.00 Banks and Financial Services Banks and Masraf Al Rayan (MARK QD) 38.15 DOWN UP 38.00 36.55 39.10 40.00 Commercial Bank of Qatar (CBQK QD) 75.50 FLAT UP 75.30 74.00 76.40 77.00 Doha Bank (DHBK QD)* 57.00 DOWN DOWN 56.20 55.20 58.20 60.00 Qatar Islamic Bank (QIBK QD) 72.70 DOWN DOWN 70.50 69.50 75.00 76.00 Qatar International Islamic Bank (QIIK QD) 71.00 DOWN UP 70.30 69.40 71.50 72.80 Qatar Insurance (QATI QD) 62.20 DOWN UP 60.96 58.20 64.00 66.90 National Leasing Holding Co. (NLCS QD) 28.15 DOWN DOWN 28.00 27.52 29.15 29.95 Consumer Goods and Services Consumer G Widam Food Co. (WDAM QD) 42.00 DOWN DOWN 41.90 39.50 44.50 45.90 Al Meera Consumer Goods Co. (MERS) 160.50 UP UP 159.00 154.90 164.00 165.00 Industrials Industries Qatar (IQCD QD)* 176.00 DOWN DOWN 175.00 173.00 180.00 182.50 Qatar Electricity & Water Co. (QEWS QD) 170.10 DOWN UP 168.00 165.36 170.91 174.36 Gulf International Services (GISS QD) 71.70 UP UP 70.44 67.68 73.44 75.20 Qatari Investors Group (QIGD QD)* 53.20 UP DOWN 52.40 49.75 54.00 56.20 Real Estate Barwa Real Estate Co. (BRES QD) 35.75 UP UP 34.80 34.20 36.30 37.00 United Development Co. (UDCD QD) 22.00 DOWN DOWN 22.00 21.70 22.20 22.50 Telecom Ooredoo (ORDS QD) 139.00 DOWN DOWN 138.50 136.00 139.90 141.00 Vodafone Qatar (VFQS QD) 12.10 DOWN UP 12.09 11.90 12.25 12.40 Transportat Nakilat (QGTS QD)* 21.27 DOWN UP 20.90 20.50 21.83 22.19 Milaha (QNNS QD) 92.20 DOWN UP 91.30 90.00 93.00 95.10