Scenarios To Strategy

Introduced by Oliver

Human Nature Human Nature

Global Financial Crisis

3 Burning Issues Globalisation Technological Change

Social Networks

Environmental Change

The Scenario Quest Process Social Change

Impact of generational change Generational Change

The Scenario Quest Process Introduced by Oliver

Scenario Learning
Collective
Reflexive
Experiential
Systemic

Learning to be Strategic STEP 3 Scenario Logics STEP 2 Learning to Generate Scenarios INSPECT Environmental Influences Critical Uncertainties Scenario Narratives Scenario Learning Logic Plausible Scenarios Strategy Testing Strategic Designs Strategic Challenges Question Design 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 STEP 1 Learning to Identify and Focus Issues Framing Question Key Factor Analysis Issues Identification

… . represented by the Scenario QUEST™ Foresight Methodology

Scenario Practice
Learn about the key issues we face
Identify the influences changing our world
Create alternative futures relevant to the issues and responding to the influences
Identify the strategic implications of these futures
Create adaptive and generative strategies for today

The Public Library Framing Questions
What professional skills & attitudes will public library staff in NSW be demonstrating in 2030 in order to be successful in the alternative futures in which they might operate?
Where will the leadership and funding that drives this success come from?

THE EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT OUR ‘SYSTEM OF INTEREST’ OURSELVES

NSW Public Libraries Public Libraries as an Organisational System

Environment NSPECT NSW Public Libraries

NSW Public Libraries NATURAL SOCIAL POLITICAL ECONOMIC CULTURAL TECHNOLOGICAL The Environment as a set of Interacting Influences

NATURAL SOCIAL POLITICAL ECONOMIC CULTURAL TECHNOLOGICAL

Four Draft Scenarios Introduced by Richard

Scenario 1 Overview
Overview
Mood: survivalist
Present day link: going backwards
Physical books: valued
Libraries: re-discovered
Silent Spring
Shock Influences
climate change
resource shortages
drift away from digital
technology rejected/restrained
Consequent Scenario
slower and more sustainable
re-balancing, switching things off
shift to local living
renaissance of physical books
need for safe community spaces

Scenario 2 Overview
Overview
Mood: harmonious
Present day link: long boom
Physical books: declining
Libraries: third spaces
Rise of the Creative Class
Shock Influences
high rate of technology change
shift to digital living
declining attention spans
too much information
underlying anxiety
Consequent Scenario
expansion of library services
urban/rural divide
format instability
library polarisation

Scenario 3 Overview
Overview
Mood: bewilderment
Present day link: acceleration
Physical books: leisure use
Libraries: silver lining
Future Shock
Shock Influences
resource shortages
price spikes
information overload
generational divides
Consequent Scenario
shortages of everything
internet brownouts
anxiety & uncertainty
media mayhem

Scenario 4 Overview
Overview
Mood: ambivalent
Present day link: digitalisation
Physical books: dying
Libraries: low use
Being Digital
Shock Influences
digitalisation & virtualisation
ubiquitous connectivity
e-government
Consequent Scenario
fast paced
rise of the BRICs
GRIN technologies
e-everything
convenience rules!

The Strategic Domains Introduced by Oliver

2 The Strategic Domains

Professional Development Resourcing Leadership & Influence Resources Branding & Identity Community engagement The Strategic Domains Governance & Regulation

Strategic Implications Introduced by Richard

Strategies within a Strategic Domain Strategy A Strategy B Strategy D Strategy C Strategy E Strategy F

Strategic Options Introduced by Oliver

Strategies by Domain Across the Scenarios Strategy A No Brainer Strategy B Risky Strategy D Keep Safe Strategy C No Brainer Strategy E Risky Strategy F Risky

Challenges for Today Introduced by Richard and Oliver

8 Transformations 3 What should our high level prioritised objectives look like for the Plan period? Allan Tweet! “ I wonder what we should be doing now….? ”

The Last Word Everyone!

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Scenarios To Strategy

by PublicLibraryServices on Jul 28, 2009

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Scenarios To Strategy — Presentation Transcript