Introduced by Oliver

Human Nature Human Nature

Global Financial Crisis

3 Burning Issues Globalisation Technological Change

Social Networks

Environmental Change

The Scenario Quest Process Social Change

Impact of generational change Generational Change

The Scenario Quest Process Introduced by Oliver

Scenario Learning Collective Reflexive Experiential Systemic

Collective

Reflexive

Experiential

Systemic

Learning to be Strategic STEP 3 Scenario Logics STEP 2 Learning to Generate Scenarios INSPECT Environmental Influences Critical Uncertainties Scenario Narratives Scenario Learning Logic Plausible Scenarios Strategy Testing Strategic Designs Strategic Challenges Question Design 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 STEP 1 Learning to Identify and Focus Issues Framing Question Key Factor Analysis Issues Identification

… . represented by the Scenario QUEST™ Foresight Methodology

… . represented by the Scenario QUEST™ Foresight Methodology

Scenario Practice Learn about the key issues we face Identify the influences changing our world Create alternative futures relevant to the issues and responding to the influences Identify the strategic implications of these futures Create adaptive and generative strategies for today

Learn about the key issues we face

Identify the influences changing our world

Create alternative futures relevant to the issues and responding to the influences

Identify the strategic implications of these futures

Create adaptive and generative strategies for today

The Public Library Framing Questions What professional skills & attitudes will public library staff in NSW be demonstrating in 2030 in order to be successful in the alternative futures in which they might operate? Where will the leadership and funding that drives this success come from?

What professional skills & attitudes will public library staff in NSW be demonstrating in 2030 in order to be successful in the alternative futures in which they might operate?

Where will the leadership and funding that drives this success come from?

THE EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT OUR ‘SYSTEM OF INTEREST’ OURSELVES

NSW Public Libraries Public Libraries as an Organisational System

Environment NSPECT NSW Public Libraries

NSW Public Libraries NATURAL SOCIAL POLITICAL ECONOMIC CULTURAL TECHNOLOGICAL The Environment as a set of Interacting Influences

NATURAL SOCIAL POLITICAL ECONOMIC CULTURAL TECHNOLOGICAL

Four Draft Scenarios Introduced by Richard

Scenario 1 Overview Overview Mood: survivalist Present day link: going backwards Physical books: valued Libraries: re-discovered Silent Spring Shock Influences climate change resource shortages drift away from digital technology rejected/restrained Consequent Scenario slower and more sustainable re-balancing, switching things off shift to local living renaissance of physical books need for safe community spaces

Overview

Mood: survivalist

Present day link: going backwards

Physical books: valued

Libraries: re-discovered

Shock Influences

climate change

resource shortages

drift away from digital

technology rejected/restrained

Consequent Scenario

slower and more sustainable

re-balancing, switching things off

shift to local living

renaissance of physical books

need for safe community spaces

Scenario 2 Overview Overview Mood: harmonious Present day link: long boom Physical books: declining Libraries: third spaces Rise of the Creative Class Shock Influences high rate of technology change shift to digital living declining attention spans too much information underlying anxiety Consequent Scenario expansion of library services urban/rural divide format instability library polarisation

Overview

Mood: harmonious

Present day link: long boom

Physical books: declining

Libraries: third spaces

Shock Influences

high rate of technology change

shift to digital living

declining attention spans

too much information

underlying anxiety

Consequent Scenario

expansion of library services

urban/rural divide

format instability

library polarisation

Scenario 3 Overview Overview Mood: bewilderment Present day link: acceleration Physical books: leisure use Libraries: silver lining Future Shock Shock Influences resource shortages price spikes information overload generational divides Consequent Scenario shortages of everything internet brownouts anxiety & uncertainty media mayhem

Overview

Mood: bewilderment

Present day link: acceleration

Physical books: leisure use

Libraries: silver lining

Shock Influences

resource shortages

price spikes

information overload

generational divides

Consequent Scenario

shortages of everything

internet brownouts

anxiety & uncertainty

media mayhem

Scenario 4 Overview Overview Mood: ambivalent Present day link: digitalisation Physical books: dying Libraries: low use Being Digital Shock Influences digitalisation & virtualisation ubiquitous connectivity e-government Consequent Scenario fast paced rise of the BRICs GRIN technologies e-everything convenience rules!

Overview

Mood: ambivalent

Present day link: digitalisation

Physical books: dying

Libraries: low use

Shock Influences

digitalisation & virtualisation

ubiquitous connectivity

e-government

Consequent Scenario

fast paced

rise of the BRICs

GRIN technologies

e-everything

convenience rules!

The Strategic Domains Introduced by Oliver

2 The Strategic Domains

Professional Development Resourcing Leadership & Influence Resources Branding & Identity Community engagement The Strategic Domains Governance & Regulation

Strategic Implications Introduced by Richard

Strategies within a Strategic Domain Strategy A Strategy B Strategy D Strategy C Strategy E Strategy F

Strategic Options Introduced by Oliver

Strategies by Domain Across the Scenarios Strategy A No Brainer Strategy B Risky Strategy D Keep Safe Strategy C No Brainer Strategy E Risky Strategy F Risky

Challenges for Today Introduced by Richard and Oliver

8 Transformations 3 What should our high level prioritised objectives look like for the Plan period? Allan Tweet! “ I wonder what we should be doing now….? ”

The Last Word Everyone!