KIT – University of the State of Baden-Wuerttemberg and
National Research Center of the Helmholtz Association
Institute fo...
Institute for Nuclear and Energy Technologies
Institute for Industrial Production
2 02.07.2013
Outline
1. Introduction
2. ...
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Institute for Industrial Production
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Characteristics of Power Ou...
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Institute for Industrial Production
4 02.07.2013
The Load Reduction Problem
...
Institute for Nuclear and Energy Technologies
Institute for Industrial Production
5 02.07.2013
The Load Reduction Problem
...
Institute for Nuclear and Energy Technologies
Institute for Industrial Production
6 02.07.2013
The Load Reduction Problem
...
Institute for Nuclear and Energy Technologies
Institute for Industrial Production
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The Load Reduction Problem
...
Institute for Nuclear and Energy Technologies
Institute for Industrial Production
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The Load Reduction Problem
...
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The Load Reduction Problem
...
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Analytical selection of criteria and ...
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Hierarchical
Criteria
Fram...
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Vulnerability Analysis
Mün...
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Vulnerability Analysis
Mün...
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Perform the sensitivity
analysis
Weig...
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Use Case
Münzberg, Th.; Mü...
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Use Case
Münzberg, Th.; Mü...
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Conclusion
The assessment of supply r...
Institute for Nuclear and Energy Technologies
Institute for Industrial Production
18 Münzberg, Th.; Müller, T.; Möhrle, S....
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An Integrated Multi-Criteria Approach on Vulnerability Analysis in the Context of Load Reduction

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Presentation of Thomas Münzberg, Tim Müller, Stella Möhrle, Tina Comes and Frank Schultmann on the topic "An Integrated Multi-Criteria Approach on Vulnerability Analysis in the Context of Load Reduction" at ISCRAM2013

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An Integrated Multi-Criteria Approach on Vulnerability Analysis in the Context of Load Reduction

  1. 1. KIT – University of the State of Baden-Wuerttemberg and National Research Center of the Helmholtz Association Institute for Nuclear and Energy Technologies Institute for Industrial Production www.kit.edu Thomas Münzberg, Tim Müller, Stella Möhrle, Tina Comes, Frank Schultmann An Integrated Multi-Criteria Approach on Vulnerability Analysis in the Context of Load Reduction
  2. 2. Institute for Nuclear and Energy Technologies Institute for Industrial Production 2 02.07.2013 Outline 1. Introduction 2. The Load Reduction Problem 3. Developing a Vulnerability Assessment 4. Use Case 5. Conclusion Münzberg, Th.; Müller, T.; Möhrle, S.; Comes, T; Schultmann, F. ISCRAM 2013, Baden-Baden
  3. 3. Institute for Nuclear and Energy Technologies Institute for Industrial Production 3 02.07.2013 Characteristics of Power Outages InductiveViewDeductiveView Münzberg, Th.; Müller, T.; Möhrle, S.; Comes, T; Schultmann, F. ISCRAM 2013, Baden-Baden Infrastructure Damage Network Instability
  4. 4. Institute for Nuclear and Energy Technologies Institute for Industrial Production 4 02.07.2013 The Load Reduction Problem TransmissionCode 2007: Network and System Rules of the German Transmission System Operators Network Instability Stage Frequency Actions of power grid operators 1 49.8 Hz Alerting of staff and scheduling of the power station capacity not yet activated, according to the Transmission System Operator’s directions, shedding of pumps. 2 49.0 Hz Instantaneous load shedding of 10 - 15 % of the system load. 3 48.7 Hz Instantaneous load shedding of further 10 - 15 % of the system load. 4 48.4 Hz Instantaneous load shedding of further 15 - 20 % of the system load. 5 47.5 Hz Disconnection of all generating facilities from the network Drop in Frequency 5-Stage Plan to control a drop in frequency (TransmissionCode, DistributionCode) Münzberg, Th.; Müller, T.; Möhrle, S.; Comes, T; Schultmann, F. ISCRAM 2013, Baden-Baden
  5. 5. Institute for Nuclear and Energy Technologies Institute for Industrial Production 5 02.07.2013 The Load Reduction Problem Network Instability Drop in Frequency Transmission Grid Distribution Network A B C D E Münzberg, Th.; Müller, T.; Möhrle, S.; Comes, T; Schultmann, F. ISCRAM 2013, Baden-Baden 5-Stage Plan to control a drop in frequency (TransmissionCode, DistributionCode)
  6. 6. Institute for Nuclear and Energy Technologies Institute for Industrial Production 6 02.07.2013 The Load Reduction Problem A B C D E Network Instability Drop in Frequency Example 1 Load shedding by decoupling the supply regions B and D Example 2 Load shedding by decoupling the supply regions A and E Münzberg, Th.; Müller, T.; Möhrle, S.; Comes, T; Schultmann, F. ISCRAM 2013, Baden-Baden 5-Stage Plan to control a drop in frequency (TransmissionCode, DistributionCode) Distribution Network Transmission Grid
  7. 7. Institute for Nuclear and Energy Technologies Institute for Industrial Production 7 02.07.2013 The Load Reduction Problem Network Instability Drop in Frequency Example 1 Load shedding by decoupling the supply regions B and D Affected critical infrastructures and population: Example 2 Load shedding by decoupling the supply regions A and E Affected critical infrastructures and population: Transmission Grid A B C D E Münzberg, Th.; Müller, T.; Möhrle, S.; Comes, T; Schultmann, F. ISCRAM 2013, Baden-Baden 5-Stage Plan to control a drop in frequency (TransmissionCode, DistributionCode) Distribution Network
  8. 8. Institute for Nuclear and Energy Technologies Institute for Industrial Production 8 02.07.2013 The Load Reduction Problem Network Instability Drop in Frequency The Risk of Load Reduction R = H * E * V Risk = Hazard x Exposure x Vulnerability The hazard H is the probability of outage of a specific severity. The exposure E describes the Critical Infrastructures at risk in the potential affected supply region. The vulnerability V is the condition of physical, social and economic factors increasing the susceptibility of the functioning of a SR to power outages. Münzberg, Th.; Müller, T.; Möhrle, S.; Comes, T; Schultmann, F. ISCRAM 2013, Baden-Baden 5-Stage Plan to control a drop in frequency (TransmissionCode, DistributionCode) Example 1 Load shedding by decoupling the supply regions B and D Affected critical infrastructures and population: Example 2 Load shedding by decoupling the supply regions A and E Affected critical infrastructures and population:
  9. 9. Institute for Nuclear and Energy Technologies Institute for Industrial Production 9 02.07.2013 The Load Reduction Problem What are the levels of vulnerability in the supply regions? What kind of critical infrastructures are affected by decoupling selected supply regions? Which supply region should be chosen to be decoupled? How does the vulnerabiltity change when decision maker‘s preferences change regarding single critical infrastructures? Münzberg, Th.; Müller, T.; Möhrle, S.; Comes, T; Schultmann, F. ISCRAM 2013, Baden-Baden Challenges within the Load Reduction Problem Avoiding and minimizung the effects of power outages to an affected area Control a drop in frequency by load reducing Needs to support decisions Developing a clear and well- structured framework to assess socio-economic vulnerabilities Faciliating the integration of all involved stakeholders to the decision making process Assessing and ranking the levels of vulnerabilities of supply regions against power outages 1 2 3 4
  10. 10. Institute for Nuclear and Energy Technologies Institute for Industrial Production 10 Analytical selection of criteria and attributes to assess the vulnerability of the SRs to power outages Developing a Vulnerability Assessment The general procedure of assessing vulnerability of Supply Regions (SR) based on a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA): 1 Definition of a hierarchical criteria framework Definition of the normalization functions Integration of the weighting factors Aggregation to prioritize SRs Visualization of results Sensitivity analysis concerning changing weights and attribute values accompanied by an update of the criteria framework 2 3 4 5 6 7 Münzberg, Th.; Müller, T.; Möhrle, S.; Comes, T; Schultmann, F. ISCRAM 2013, Baden-Baden 02.07.2013
  11. 11. Institute for Nuclear and Energy Technologies Institute for Industrial Production 11 02.07.2013 Hierarchical Criteria Framework Vulnerability Supply Region SR A SR B SR C Supply Regions (SR) SR A Critical Infrastructure Sectors and Branches SR B SR C Criteria Alternatives Weights Data Collection Collaborative Partnerships Münzberg, Th.; Müller, T.; Möhrle, S.; Comes, T; Schultmann, F. ISCRAM 2013, Baden-Baden 1 … … Developing a Vulnerability Assessment 0
  12. 12. Institute for Nuclear and Energy Technologies Institute for Industrial Production 12 02.07.2013 Vulnerability Analysis Münzberg, Th.; Müller, T., Möhrle, S., Comes, T; Schultmann, F. ISCRAM 2013, Baden-Baden Hierarchical Criteria Framework
  13. 13. Institute for Nuclear and Energy Technologies Institute for Industrial Production 13 02.07.2013 Vulnerability Analysis Münzberg, Th.; Müller, T., Möhrle, S., Comes, T; Schultmann, F. ISCRAM 2013, Baden-Baden Hierarchical Criteria Framework
  14. 14. Institute for Nuclear and Energy Technologies Institute for Industrial Production 14 Perform the sensitivity analysis Weight the criteria and attributes in a collaborative way Collect data by using the established collaborative partnerships of Local Emergency Management Authorities, CI providers and other stakeholders on the local level 02.07.2013 Applying the framework to support critical infrastructure protection in collaborative partnerships: Use Case Align the hierarchical criteria framework to the local circumstances Münzberg, Th.; Müller, T.; Möhrle, S.; Comes, T; Schultmann, F. ISCRAM 2013, Baden-Baden
  15. 15. Institute for Nuclear and Energy Technologies Institute for Industrial Production 15 02.07.2013 Use Case Münzberg, Th.; Müller, T.; Möhrle, S.; Comes, T; Schultmann, F. ISCRAM 2013, Baden-Baden aggregated criteria of ‘Hospitals’, ‘Social Facility’, ‘Chemical Industry’, ‘Economy Point of Interest’ ‘Security Point of Interest’ Hospitals Social Facilities Chemical Industry Economy Points of Interest Security Points of Interest Aggregated Criteria:
  16. 16. Institute for Nuclear and Energy Technologies Institute for Industrial Production 16 02.07.2013 Use Case Münzberg, Th.; Müller, T.; Möhrle, S.; Comes, T; Schultmann, F. ISCRAM 2013, Baden-Baden aggregated criteria of ‘Hospitals’, ‘Social Facility’, ‘Chemical Industry’, ‘Economy Point of Interest’ ‘Security Point of Interest’ Hospitals Social Facilities Chemical Industry Economy Points of Interest Security Points of Interest Aggregated Criteria:
  17. 17. Institute for Nuclear and Energy Technologies Institute for Industrial Production 17 Conclusion The assessment of supply region‘s vulnerabilities is essential for emergency management and the collaborative preparedness against power outages. The vulnerability of supply region can be assessed by an integrated multi-criteria approach taking economic, social and physical impacts into account. The approach enhances understanding the consequences of power outages. The display of levels supply region‘s vulnerabilities can be used for vulnerability- triggered load reduction in disaster risk management. Data collection as well as the criteria weighting process need collaboration between EMA, CI providers and stakeholders. This supports inter-organizational partnerships for CI protection. Future Research Directions Analysing uncertainties (e.g. indicator selection and standardization) Consideration of dynamic aspects resulting from (1) time limited resilience capacities and (2) propagation of consequences by interconnected infrastructures 02.07.2013 Münzberg, Th.; Müller, T.; Möhrle, S.; Comes, T; Schultmann, F. ISCRAM 2013, Baden-Baden
  18. 18. Institute for Nuclear and Energy Technologies Institute for Industrial Production 18 Münzberg, Th.; Müller, T.; Möhrle, S.; Comes, T; Schultmann, F. ISCRAM 2013, Baden-Baden 02.07.2013 Thank you for your attention! Thomas Münzberg M.Sc. thomas.muenzberg@kit.edu Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) Institute f. Nuclear and Energy Techn. (IKET) Institute f. Industrial Production (IIP) We would like to thank CEDIM as well as the Mannheim Municipal Fire Department as representatives of the city of Mannheim for supporting this work. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

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