Life Cycle Cost analysis for manage the uncertainty in the taking decision process for a project. This study includes in the financial analysis outcomes for unavailability and number expected of failures (RAM and Risk Analysis) All the variables have been treated as probabilistic. Finally the NPV model is a forecast expressed in probabilistic manner.

1. Technical Economic Evaluation of the Configuration Options for the Loading
Crude System of the Distiller Unit N (DU-N)
By: Luis Daniel Khalil Bittar, CMRP
February, 2013
ABSTRACT
The demand for business and the dynamics of the current economy motivate industries
to produce efficient and optimal, minimizing costs, encouraging investments and
maximizing the safety, environmental protection, quality of products and social
benefits, that is to say, maximizing the reliability of its assets and productive processes.
This decision-making process must take into account a series of random variables that
affect the outcome of the assessment; this is needed to manage the uncertainty
associated with these variables to the results of the economic evaluation. The mentioned
variables are of costs, of information of flaw, of information of repair, of times, between
others. They should be treated as probabilistic to enable generate results needed to
present a forecast of the life cycle cost of a project. This evaluation allows us to know
the profitability of each of the options that can take a project, considering the variables
mentioned along its life cycle. In this sense, a forecast of the probable net present values
(VPN) you can get for each option of the project, with the target to recommend the
option that offers major profitability. In this case, they are presented the draft of the
configuration options of the charging system for DU-N, which are three, as it is with
two steam turbines as driving element, steam turbine for a pump and electric motor for
the other pump or AC electric motor for both pumps to the loading system. The result is
a major factor in profitability for the option to install two electric motors for the system
under evaluation. Similarly, the lower Life Cycle Cost is for this option. In this sense it
is concluded that the best option is to install two (2) electric motors as drivers for the
pumps in the loading crude system of the DU-N.
Key Words: Technical-economic evaluation, Options, Systems, Life Cycle Costing.