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The Arab Spring
 

The Arab Spring

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    The Arab Spring The Arab Spring Presentation Transcript

    • MBA ADVANCE 2010-2011
      Business English Oral Project: Simone Nastasi
    • TABLE OF CONTENTS
      DEFINITION OF ARAB SPRING
      ANALYSIS OF SELECTED COUNTRIES
      - Policy
      - Economic
      CONCLUSION (WHAT COMES NEXT ?)
    • WHAT’S THE ARAB SPRING?
      A revolutionary wave of demonstrations and protests that have been taking place in the Arab world since 18 December of 2010.
    • COUNTRIES INVOLVED
      Mauritania, West Sahara, Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia,Libya, Egypt, Sudan, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Oman, Yemen.
    • COUNTRIES ANALYZED
      Tunisia (Revolution)
      Egypt (Revolution)
      Libya (Ongoing war)
    • TUNISIAWhat’s happened?
      Uprisings started on december 2010.
      CAUSES:
      High unemployment, food price inflation, corruption, lack of freedom of speech, poor living conditions.
      EFFECTS:
      Ouster of president Ben Ali
      Election to a costitutional assembly
    • ECONOMIC IMPACT OF REVOLUTION(TUNISIA)
      Tourists arrivals down of 40% in April
      Higher food prices
      Declining of consumer confidence
      Industrial production down 11%
      GDP growth expected of 1% in 2011 less than 3,5% over the last year
    • GDP per Capita TUNISIA
    • EGYPT What’s happened?
      Uprisings started on 25 January 2011
      CAUSES :
      High unemployment,food inflaction, corruption,electoral fraud,low minimun wages,State emergency law
      POLITICAL EFFECTS:
      Overthrow of Mubarak’s regime
    • ECONOMIC IMPACT OF REVOLUTION (EGYPT)
      Tourists arrival down of 80% in April
      Industrial production down of 24%
      Inflation rate at 12%
      Food price up by over 20%
      GDP growth expected of 1% less 5% than over the last year
    • GDP EGYPT
    • LIBYAWhat’s happened ?
      • Uprisingsstarted on February 2011
      • CAUSES:
      • High unemployment (30%), censorship and tight controlof information
      • Inequalitiesbetweenethnicgroups
      EFFECTS :
      • Civil war ongoing
      • UnitedNation Security CouncilResolution 1973
      • Embargo on trade and armssalesbyEuropeanCouncil
      • Militaryinterventionof the Coalition (OdisseyDawn)
    • EthnicalMap (LIBYA)
    • WHY A WAR IN LYBIA?
      To exclude Chinese interests in North Africa (geopolitical standpoint)
      To control oil production (trade standpoint)
      To eliminate Muammar Ghadafi (historical standpoint)
      To implement the democracy (political standpoint)
    • CHINESE INDUSTRIAL ZONES
    • ECONOMIC FREEDOM IN LIBYA
    • ECONOMIC IMPACT IN OIL PRICE (table 1)(Crude Oil – Monthly price ) *source indexmundi.com
    • WORLD IMPACT OF OIL PRICE SHOCK
    • OIL RESERVE IN AFRICA
    • Wheredoes go the libyan oil?
    • ECONOMIC IMPACTS AROUND THE WORLD
      Paralysis of Libyan Sovereign Funds’ investment in EU and USA countries
      Hikes of oil price (table 1)
      Hikes of global food prices (table 2)
      Loss of investment in Italy
    • ECONOMIC IMPACT IN WHEAT PRICE (table 2)(Wheat – monthly price)*source indexmundi.com
    • ECONOMIC IMPACT IN MAINZ PRICE (table 3)*source indexmundi.com
    • OIL IMPORTATIONS FROM LIBYA
    • WHAT ABOUT ITALY ?
    • WHAT THE WAR’S IMPACTS ON ITALY?
      Termination of Treaty of Friendship signed in 2008
      Termination of trade relations
      Decrease in oil supply
      Withdrawal of shares by Lybian Sovereign Fund in Italian companies
    • ITALY DEPENDS FROM LYBIA OIL
    • LYBIAN SHARES IN ITALIAN COMPANIES
    • WHAT COMES NEXT ?
      Political uncertainity
      Geopolitical instability (Anarchy)
      Islamization
      Shortage in the oil’ supply
      Hikes of oil’s price
      Who will rule the country?
    • THANKS FOR YOUR ATTENTION