MBA ADVANCE 2010-2011 Business English Oral Project: Simone Nastasi
TABLE OF CONTENTS DEFINITION OF ARAB SPRING ANALYSIS OF SELECTED COUNTRIES - Policy - Economic CONCLUSION (WHAT COMES NEXT ?)
WHAT’S THE ARAB SPRING? A revolutionary wave of demonstrations and protests that have been taking place in the Arab world since 18 December of 2010.
COUNTRIES INVOLVED Mauritania, West Sahara, Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia,Libya, Egypt, Sudan, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Oman, Yemen.
COUNTRIES ANALYZED Tunisia (Revolution) Egypt (Revolution) Libya (Ongoing war)
TUNISIAWhat’s happened? Uprisings started on december 2010. CAUSES: High unemployment, food price inflation, corruption, lack of freedom of speech, poor living conditions. EFFECTS: Ouster of president Ben Ali Election to a costitutional assembly
ECONOMIC IMPACT OF REVOLUTION(TUNISIA) Tourists arrivals down of 40% in April Higher food prices Declining of consumer confidence Industrial production down 11% GDP growth expected of 1% in 2011 less than 3,5% over the last year
GDP per Capita TUNISIA
EGYPT What’s happened? Uprisings started on 25 January 2011 CAUSES : High unemployment,food inflaction, corruption,electoral fraud,low minimun wages,State emergency law POLITICAL EFFECTS: Overthrow of Mubarak’s regime
ECONOMIC IMPACT OF REVOLUTION (EGYPT) Tourists arrival down of 80% in April Industrial production down of 24% Inflation rate at 12% Food price up by over 20% GDP growth expected of 1% less 5% than over the last year
LIBYAWhat’s happened ?
Uprisingsstarted on February 2011
High unemployment (30%), censorship and tight controlof information
Civil war ongoing
UnitedNation Security CouncilResolution 1973
Embargo on trade and armssalesbyEuropeanCouncil
Militaryinterventionof the Coalition (OdisseyDawn)
WHY A WAR IN LYBIA? To exclude Chinese interests in North Africa (geopolitical standpoint) To control oil production (trade standpoint) To eliminate Muammar Ghadafi (historical standpoint) To implement the democracy (political standpoint)
ECONOMIC IMPACT IN MAINZ PRICE (table 3)*source indexmundi.com
OIL IMPORTATIONS FROM LIBYA
WHAT ABOUT ITALY ?
WHAT THE WAR’S IMPACTS ON ITALY? Termination of Treaty of Friendship signed in 2008 Termination of trade relations Decrease in oil supply Withdrawal of shares by Lybian Sovereign Fund in Italian companies
ITALY DEPENDS FROM LYBIA OIL
LYBIAN SHARES IN ITALIAN COMPANIES
WHAT COMES NEXT ? Political uncertainity Geopolitical instability (Anarchy) Islamization Shortage in the oil’ supply Hikes of oil’s price Who will rule the country?