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1. Scenario planning for success –
the art of the long view
Jonathon Hagger
Gareth Houghting
2. • to discuss the use of scenarios,
• to describe three scenario tools,
• to apply those tools to a scenario,
• to develop an understanding of scenarios
The purpose of this presentation is -
3. Meet the minds behind scenarios
Curry Hammond Schwartz
Schwartz P., The art of the long view
Hammond A., Which world? Scenarios for the 21st century
Curry A., Acting on the future
4. “While the future is uncertain and much of it is beyond
our control, we can control many aspects of it.
We choose our future: we create it by what we do or
fail to do.”
Wendy Schultz, “Defining Futures Fluency”
http://www.infinitefutures.com/essays/ff/ChFiveView.pdf
5. Jeremy Bentham on scenario planning for crucial
choices in uncertain times
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=endscreen&v=tzlnB_MszyM&NR=1
6. What are Scenarios ?
“A tool for ordering one’s perceptions about alternative
future environments in which one’s decision might be
played out right” (Schwartz, 1991)
11. What are Scenarios?
“That part of strategic planning which relates to the
tools and technologies for managing the uncertainties
of the future”
(Ringland, 1998)
17. We propose that
“Scenarios allow better preparation for the future,
through enabling the effective consideration of
uncertainties through challenging individuals’
assumptions, values and beliefs.
As we strategize today, we prepare for tomorrow.”
Hagger & Houghting 2013
18. Articulate and isolate key decisions
Conduct in-depth research
Look closely at the driving forces
Rehearse the implications
Schwartz’s methodology
19. Scenarios are used by
Shell Oil
http://www.shell.com/global/future-energy/scenarios.html
Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
http://ccs.mit.edu/21c/21CWP001.html#3
AutoNation
http://www.forbes.com/2009/08/03/scenario-planning-advice-leadership-managing-planning.html
Oracle
http://docs.oracle.com/cd/E18727_01/doc.121/e12277/T515640T515644.htm
20. Demystifying Scenario Terminology
Plain English Schwartz Hammond
Status quo Official Future Market World
Change for the
worse
Depression Fortress World
Change for the
better
Transformative Transformed World
21. Curry vs Schwartz!
Some similarities with Schwartz but a number of
significant differences
Focuses on defining the “system under scrutiny”
leading to the eventual decision
Less focus on planning, more consideration on causal
or systems approaches
Wide engagement with employees and stakeholders is
vital giving greater depth in decision making
25. Now its your turn
You own a business that manufactures small arms.
You will split into three groups, and each compile a
future scenario. We will then discuss the long term
viability of the company in each possible future world.
Report back what you find
26.
27.
28. “Scenarios allow better preparation for the future,
through enabling the effective consideration of
uncertainties through challenging individuals’
assumptions, values and beliefs.
As we strategize today, we prepare for tomorrow.”
Hagger & Houghting 2013
34. The importance of scenario planning to sustained
success
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KhoXFVQsIxw
35. More resources
Introduction to Scenario Planning Video
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yVgxZnRT54E
Scenario Thinking
http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Main_Page
Andrew Currys blog
http://thenextwavefutures.wordpress.com/
36. Schwartz, P. (1996). The art of the long view: Planning for the
future in an uncertain world. New York: Currency Doubleday.
Pp. xii-xvi & 3-28.
Hammond, A. (1998). Which world? Scenarios for the 21st
century: Global destinies, regional choices. Washington, DC:
Island Press. (13-25).
Curry, A. (2007). Acting on the future. In B. Sharpe & K, van
der Heijden (Eds). Scenarios for success: Turning insight into
action. Chichester, England: John Wiley. (pp. 339-371).
References
Editor's Notes
Perhaps add,Review papers by Hammond .. … …Discuss problems/contradictions to Scenario planning (Lindgren P297)
We will be using the writings of Schwartz, Hammond and Curry to guide us in preparing some scenarios, and to strategize for each scenario, or possible future.
The USAF started using scenarios after WW2, the Air Force tried to imagine what opponents might do. In the 60’s, Scenarios were refined for business use. Today it is used by some of the world’s largest businesses and government institutions. Some individuals also use scenarios to personal personal decisions.
“An internally consistent view of what the future might turn out to be” (Porter, 1985)
Not sure about this one. We will have to word it carefully, scenarios are not about predicting the future, or creating vision, or a preferred future.
“A disciplined method for imaging possible futures in which organizational decisions may be played out” (Shoemaker, 1995)
I LOVE THE QUOTE!!! That’s some genius right there!!!
Articulate and isolate key decisionsWhat factors are most relevant to your situation?Consider the timing - 5 years, 10 years and beyondConduct in-depth researchLook in unusual places for possible trends
Hammonds 3 frameworks for looking at the world:Market world. A world in which current patterns continueFortress world. Reflects fundamental, but undesirable social change. (Widening gap between rich & poor. Poverty, crime etc)Transformed world.Reflects fundamental and desirable social changeAccording to Schwatrz three types of scenario or worlds normally arise –1) Official Future. When mainstream assumptions turn out to be correct;2) Depression. A tool for thinking about surviving in hard times;3) Transformative Economy.Quality of life, not quality of goods would be emphasized.
Has similarities with the drivers led, process based approach of Schwartz, but has significant differences that give space for greater interpretive reflection.The initial scenarios question is not about the ‘decision’ that is to be made, but instead it acts to define the “system under scrutiny” that will contain the eventual decision. So Curry’s view is not so focussed on planning, but on causal or systems approaches.Curry believes workshops should be attended by people from across the organisation and/or the stakeholder network, so they are likely to have a broad range of views, and not just decision makers.He believes this difference represents a clear contrast in how change occurs in organisations.
Time is limited, so choose a few drivers.
Which Drivers will have the most impact on the system under scrutiny? (Positive or Negative impact) NB to discus these at beginning of session…
I LOVE THE QUOTE!!! That’s some genius right there!!!
Does this make sense as a stand alone quote? Does it need referencing or is there another quote that is of more value?
“A disciplined method for imaging possible futures in which organizational decisions may be played out” (Shoemaker, 1995)