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'Scenarios - Curry, Hammond, Schwartz …

'Scenarios - Curry, Hammond, Schwartz

Waikato MBA Class May 2013

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  • Perhaps add,Review papers by Hammond .. … …Discuss problems/contradictions to Scenario planning (Lindgren P297)
  • We will be using the writings of Schwartz, Hammond and Curry to guide us in preparing some scenarios, and to strategize for each scenario, or possible future.
  • The USAF started using scenarios after WW2, the Air Force tried to imagine what opponents might do. In the 60’s, Scenarios were refined for business use. Today it is used by some of the world’s largest businesses and government institutions. Some individuals also use scenarios to personal personal decisions.
  • “An internally consistent view of what the future might turn out to be” (Porter, 1985)
  • Not sure about this one. We will have to word it carefully, scenarios are not about predicting the future, or creating vision, or a preferred future.
  • “A disciplined method for imaging possible futures in which organizational decisions may be played out” (Shoemaker, 1995)
  • I LOVE THE QUOTE!!! That’s some genius right there!!!
  • Articulate and isolate key decisionsWhat factors are most relevant to your situation?Consider the timing - 5 years, 10 years and beyondConduct in-depth researchLook in unusual places for possible trends
  • Hammonds 3 frameworks for looking at the world:Market world. A world in which current patterns continueFortress world. Reflects fundamental, but undesirable social change. (Widening gap between rich & poor. Poverty, crime etc)Transformed world.Reflects fundamental and desirable social changeAccording to Schwatrz three types of scenario or worlds normally arise –1) Official Future. When mainstream assumptions turn out to be correct;2) Depression. A tool for thinking about surviving in hard times;3) Transformative Economy.Quality of life, not quality of goods would be emphasized.
  • Has similarities with the drivers led, process based approach of Schwartz, but has significant differences that give space for greater interpretive reflection.The initial scenarios question is not about the ‘decision’ that is to be made, but instead it acts to define the “system under scrutiny” that will contain the eventual decision. So Curry’s view is not so focussed on planning, but on causal or systems approaches.Curry believes workshops should be attended by people from across the organisation and/or the stakeholder network, so they are likely to have a broad range of views, and not just decision makers.He believes this difference represents a clear contrast in how change occurs in organisations.
  • Time is limited, so choose a few drivers.
  • Which Drivers will have the most impact on the system under scrutiny? (Positive or Negative impact) NB to discus these at beginning of session…
  • I LOVE THE QUOTE!!! That’s some genius right there!!!
  • Does this make sense as a stand alone quote? Does it need referencing or is there another quote that is of more value?
  • “A disciplined method for imaging possible futures in which organizational decisions may be played out” (Shoemaker, 1995)

Transcript

  • 1. Scenario planning for success –the art of the long viewJonathon HaggerGareth Houghting
  • 2. • to discuss the use of scenarios,• to describe three scenario tools,• to apply those tools to a scenario,• to develop an understanding of scenariosThe purpose of this presentation is -
  • 3. Meet the minds behind scenariosCurry Hammond SchwartzSchwartz P., The art of the long viewHammond A., Which world? Scenarios for the 21st centuryCurry A., Acting on the future
  • 4. “While the future is uncertain and much of it is beyondour control, we can control many aspects of it.We choose our future: we create it by what we do orfail to do.”Wendy Schultz, “Defining Futures Fluency”http://www.infinitefutures.com/essays/ff/ChFiveView.pdf
  • 5. Jeremy Bentham on scenario planning for crucialchoices in uncertain timeshttp://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=endscreen&v=tzlnB_MszyM&NR=1
  • 6. What are Scenarios ?“A tool for ordering one’s perceptions about alternativefuture environments in which one’s decision might beplayed out right” (Schwartz, 1991)
  • 7. Scenarios are about -
  • 8. Writing a story,
  • 9. Articulating pathways,
  • 10. Creating a vision.
  • 11. What are Scenarios?“That part of strategic planning which relates to thetools and technologies for managing the uncertaintiesof the future”(Ringland, 1998)
  • 12. Scenarios are not about
  • 13. Predicting the future,
  • 14. Choosing a preferred or desired future,
  • 15. Extrapolating the present.
  • 16. Scenarios ARE about making better decisions witha desired future in mind.
  • 17. We propose that“Scenarios allow better preparation for the future,through enabling the effective consideration ofuncertainties through challenging individuals’assumptions, values and beliefs.As we strategize today, we prepare for tomorrow.”Hagger & Houghting 2013
  • 18. Articulate and isolate key decisionsConduct in-depth researchLook closely at the driving forcesRehearse the implicationsSchwartz’s methodology
  • 19. Scenarios are used byShell Oilhttp://www.shell.com/global/future-energy/scenarios.htmlMassachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)http://ccs.mit.edu/21c/21CWP001.html#3AutoNationhttp://www.forbes.com/2009/08/03/scenario-planning-advice-leadership-managing-planning.htmlOraclehttp://docs.oracle.com/cd/E18727_01/doc.121/e12277/T515640T515644.htm
  • 20. Demystifying Scenario TerminologyPlain English Schwartz HammondStatus quo Official Future Market WorldChange for theworseDepression Fortress WorldChange for thebetterTransformative Transformed World
  • 21. Curry vs Schwartz!Some similarities with Schwartz but a number ofsignificant differencesFocuses on defining the “system under scrutiny”leading to the eventual decisionLess focus on planning, more consideration on causalor systems approachesWide engagement with employees and stakeholders isvital giving greater depth in decision making
  • 22. Typical scenarios process (Curry)© HenleyCentreHeadlightVisionScanningUnderstanding landscapeStrategizingVisioning,priorities&futureplanningApprox50driversident-ifiedAxesDevelop-mentDraftScenariosdevelopedAn iterative processScenariotesting20driversprioritisedandtested
  • 23. © HenleyCentreHeadlightVisionActions that are neededwhatever the scenario(Imperatives)Involves assessing actions against capabilities andcompetencies, identifying opportunities and reviewingrisksDrivers ofchangeScenariosStrategicimplicationsIdeas forfuturestrategy &actionActions needed to reacha preferred future outcome(Preferences)From scenarios to strategy
  • 24. Limitations of scenario planninghttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N7b0cLn-wHU
  • 25. Now its your turnYou own a business that manufactures small arms.You will split into three groups, and each compile afuture scenario. We will then discuss the long termviability of the company in each possible future world.Report back what you find
  • 26. “Scenarios allow better preparation for the future,through enabling the effective consideration ofuncertainties through challenging individuals’assumptions, values and beliefs.As we strategize today, we prepare for tomorrow.”Hagger & Houghting 2013
  • 27. So HOW DO we use scenarios?
  • 28. Create plays,
  • 29. Recognise the signs,
  • 30. Plan ahead
  • 31. In closingScenarios are“…tools and technologies for managing theuncertainties of the future”(Ringland, 1998)
  • 32. The importance of scenario planning to sustainedsuccesshttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KhoXFVQsIxw
  • 33. More resourcesIntroduction to Scenario Planning Videohttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yVgxZnRT54EScenario Thinkinghttp://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Main_PageAndrew Currys bloghttp://thenextwavefutures.wordpress.com/
  • 34. Schwartz, P. (1996). The art of the long view: Planning for thefuture in an uncertain world. New York: Currency Doubleday.Pp. xii-xvi & 3-28.Hammond, A. (1998). Which world? Scenarios for the 21stcentury: Global destinies, regional choices. Washington, DC:Island Press. (13-25).Curry, A. (2007). Acting on the future. In B. Sharpe & K, vander Heijden (Eds). Scenarios for success: Turning insight intoaction. Chichester, England: John Wiley. (pp. 339-371).References