Foundations for a Future Orientation

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Presents the theoretical foundations for a future orientation and describes one technique--the Futures Wheel--for helping others develop that orientation.

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Foundations for a Future Orientation

  1. 1. Foundations for Strategic Foresight Overview
  2. 2. Foundations for Strategic Foresight Overview
  3. 3. Foundations for Strategic Foresight Overview
  4. 4. Foundations for Strategic Foresight Overview
  5. 5. Foundations for Strategic Foresight “Acting while there is still a choice.” –Bertrand de Jouvenal
  6. 6. Foundations for Strategic Foresight “Planning from the future back to the present” –Marsh, McAllum & Purcell
  7. 7. Foundations for Strategic Foresight “Internal and external factors or trends that will impact the institution.” –McFarland & Moore, 2003
  8. 8. Foundations for Strategic Foresight Identifying Driving Forces S T E E P ocial echnological nvironmental conomic olitical
  9. 9. Foundations for Strategic Foresight Scenario: “The description of a possible future and the corresponding path to it.” ‒ Michel Godet
  10. 10. Foundations for Strategic Foresight Get them to question their
  11. 11. Foundations for Strategic Foresight Our Assumptions Encase us … in the Past.
  12. 12. Assumption #1: It’s impossible.
  13. 13. I’m too busy.
  14. 14. Foundations for Strategic Foresight It’s irrelevant. Assumption # 3:
  15. 15. Foundations for Strategic Foresight Is it like a Hollywood movie?
  16. 16. Foundations for Strategic Foresight Or more like an interactive video game?
  17. 17. Foundations for Strategic Foresight
  18. 18. “Has God put us here as contrarians, to languish in discontent until the world ends? Or has God placed us at the very heart and soul of civilization to bring forth an entirely different future, one that has never before been possible, through the power of Christ's Cross and Resurrection?” –Christian Futurist, Jay Gary, 2003
  19. 19. “The constructive forces that can keep afloat in the turbulent waters of globalization are those whose gaze is fixed firmly on the future rather than the past; those forces, in other words, that regard opening themselves up to the future as a core element in their identity and not as a threat.” –Athanasios N. Papathanasiou, 2004
  20. 20. Foundations for Strategic Foresight “The only useful knowledge we have relates to the future.” – Bertrand de Jouvenel
  21. 21. The choices we make and the attitudes with which we approach life affect the path.
  22. 22. Foundations for Strategic Foresight • Not predictions • Qualitative research • No more than 4 • Used to multiply options
  23. 23. Foundations for Strategic Foresight
  24. 24. Foundations for Strategic Foresight A tool that projects cause and effect relationships between a driving force and the changes that could ripple out from it.
  25. 25. Foundations for Strategic Foresight Participants discuss with their group the driving forces listed in a “Driving Forces” handout. After reading each description, they choose one driving force that their group wants to explore.
  26. 26. Foundations for Strategic Foresight Participants draw a circle in the middle of their poster. The wheel begins with this circle where they write their group's selected driving force.
  27. 27. Foundations for Strategic Foresight Participants are encouraged to think about the consequences that might flow from that driving force. What will likely be the effects of this driving force?
  28. 28. Foundations for Strategic Foresight Participants select one first- order effect for brainstorming. What is likely to happen as a result? Continue this process until all three first-order effects have two second-order effects.
  29. 29. Foundations for Strategic Foresight Repeat the procedure to get two third-order effects for each second-order effect. When the participants are done, their diagram should have 22 circles.
  30. 30. Foundations for Strategic Foresight
  31. 31. Foundations for Strategic Foresight
  32. 32. Foundations for Strategic Foresight Participants are encouraged to discuss with their group any conclusions or overall lessons learned. They should jot these down so they can share them with the larger group.
  33. 33. Foundations for Strategic Foresight
  34. 34. Foundations for Strategic Foresight • Organize and synthesize
  35. 35. Foundations for Strategic Foresight • Organize and synthesize • Uncover the layers of change
  36. 36. Foundations for Strategic Foresight • Organize and synthesize • Uncover the layers of change • Explore consequences
  37. 37. Foundations for Strategic Foresight • Organize and synthesize • Uncover the layers of change • Explore consequences • Generate creative ideas
  38. 38. Foundations for Strategic Foresight • Organize and synthesize • Uncover the layers of change • Explore consequences • Generate creative ideas • Anticipate unforeseen consequences
  39. 39. Foundations for Strategic Foresight • Organize and synthesize • Uncover the layers of change • Explore consequences • Generate creative ideas • Anticipate unforeseen consequences • Test ideas before implementation
  40. 40. Foundations for Strategic Foresight • Organize and synthesize • Uncover the layers of change • Explore consequences • Generate creative ideas • Anticipate unforeseen consequences • Test ideas before implementation • Create scenarios everyone can understand
  41. 41. Foundations for Strategic Foresight “Would that they were wise, that they understood this, that they would discern their future!” – Deuteronomy 32:29
  42. 42. Foundations for Strategic Foresight For more information, please contact . . . Dr. Greg Waddell Email: DrGregWaddell@LeadStrategic.com Blog: http://www.LeadStrategic.com/ Twtter: @DrGregWaddell FB: DrGregWaddell
  43. 43. Third Order Effects How to Do a Futures Wheel OTHER FORECASTING TOOLS • Environmental scanning • Scenario analysis • Cross-impact matrices • Delphic surveys • Strategic Planning • Modeling • QUEST • Simulation • Brainstorming • Historical analogy Second Order Effects First Order Effects WAR DISASTERS COUPS MEDICAL DISCOVERIE S Include some wild cards Go 10, 20, or 30 years out Dr. Gregory S. Waddell greg@envoycm.org www.SpiritOfOrganization.com Use colored markers to indicate serious threats and promising opportunities Adapted from Coates, J. (2004). How to do a futures study. Washington, DC: Joseph Coates Consulting Futurist, Inc.
  44. 44. Foundations for Strategic Foresight Works Cited Dahle, K. (2003). “55 Key Works: A Guide to Futures Literature.” In R. A. Slaughter (Ed.), Knowledge Base of Futures Studies CD-ROM (Vol. 1,). Queensland, Australia: Foresight International. de Jouvenel, B. (1972). “On the nature of the future.” In A. Toffler (Ed.), The Futurists (pp. 277-83). NY: Random House. Marsh, N., McAllum, M., & Purcell, D. (2002). “Why Strategic Foresight?” In The Power of Standing in the Future. Victoria, Australia: Crown Content. McFarland, D., & Moore, J. (2003). Stakeholder's Conference on Strategic Planning. Arkansas State University. Accessed October 16, 2005 from http://asunews.astate.edu/Oct%2020%202003%20Stakeholders%20Conf.htm Michel Godet Cited in Dahle, K. (2003). “55 Key Works: A Guide to Futures Literature.” In R. A. Slaughter (Ed.), Knowledge Base of Futures Studies CD-ROM (Vol. 1,). Queensland, Australia: Foresight International. Papathanasiou, A. N. (2004). “Anchored in the future, Globalization and church consciousness: An orthodox perspective.” The Ecumenical Review, 56(2), 226-233.

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