Perumusan S P         Scenario Planning d l                 i Pl    i dalam rangka                                      k ...
Dadang Solihin’s Profile               Dadang holds a MA degree (                     g                 g   (Economics), U...
Materi   Perencanaan   Sistem P    Si t    Perencanaan P b                        Pembangunan N i                       ...
Perencanaan    dadang-solihin.blogspot.com   4
Perencanaan• Suatu proses untuk menentukan tindakan masa  depan yang tepat, melalui urutan pilihan, dengan  memperhitungka...
Fungsi/Fungsi/Manfaat Perencanaan   Sebagai penuntun arah   Minimalisasi K tid k    Mi i li    i Ketidakpastian         ...
Syarat PerencanaanHarus memiliki, mengetahui, dan memperhitungkan:1. Tujuan akhir yang dikehendaki.2. Sasaran-sasaran dan ...
Kegagalan Perencanaan1. Penyusunan perencanaan tidak tepat, mungkin karena:       informasinya kurang lengkap,       met...
Kegagalan Perencanaan          g g3. perencanaan mengikuti paradigma yang ternyata tidak sesuai   dengan k di i d perkemba...
Sistem Perencanaan yang Berhasil•    Sistem perencanaan yang mendorong     berkembangnya mekanisme pasar dan peran serta  ...
Perencanaan yang Ideal                     y gInteractive Planning•   Partisipatif: masyarakat yang akan memperoleh manfaa...
Sistem PerencanaanPembangunan Nasional (SPPN)            dadang-solihin.blogspot.com   12
Apa itu SPPN?                   pSPPN adalah satu kesatuan tata cara  perencanaan pembangunan untuk menghasilkan rencana...
Tujuan SPPN                jMendukung koordinasi antar-pelaku pembangunan.Menjamin terciptanya integrasi, sinkronisasi, da...
Proses PerencanaanPendekatan Politik:Pemilihan Presiden/Kepala DP ilih P id /K           l Daerah menghasilkan            ...
Tahapan Perencanaan           p1.1 Penyusunan Rencana     Rancangan Rencana Pembangunan Nasional / Daerah     Rancangan ...
Scenario Planning       dadang-solihin.blogspot.com   17
Apa itu Scenario Planning?• “An internally consistent view of what the future might   An  turn out to be” (Michael Porter,...
Apa itu Scenario Planning?• Scenario Planning is a model that can be used to  explore and learn the future in which a corp...
Apa itu Scenario Planning?•   The scenario planning method works by understanding the    nature and impact of the most unc...
Apa itu Scenario Planning?• Scenario planning is the combination of scenario  analysis for strategic purposes and strategi...
Perbedaan antara         Scenario, Forecast,         Scenario Forecast dan Visions       Scenario               Forecast  ...
Dimensi                                Focus: newScenario PlS     i Planning             i                   business     ...
Karakteristik Traditional Planning dan              Scenario Pl              S       i Planning                           ...
Steps in Scenario Planning1. Identify people who will contribute a wide range of perspectives.2. Comprehensive interviews/...
Tahapan Membuat Skenario1.   Decide driving forces (istilah lain : drivers / drivers for change)2.   Find key uncertaintie...
Some Traps to Avoid1.1 Treating scenarios as forecasts.                           forecasts2. Constructing scenarios based...
Level of Strategic Thinking                                                   Paradigm                      Within paradig...
Level of Integration                                   g  Level ofintegration                                             ...
Models for Scenario Project                                         Participation        Organization                Exper...
Scenarios and Uncertainties                       Uncertainty A                Scenario 1           Scenario 2Uncertainty ...
Contoh: Daily Newspapers                 Strong demand for digital information                   Wait and             Cybe...
Contoh: Scenario Indonesia 2010              Plot Scenario & Buat Narasinya                  Authoritarian                ...
On the Edge•   Authoritarian government system with a pro-growth                                                pro growth...
Padding a Leaky Boat•   Combines a democratic government system with a    pro-growth economic orientation.•   Indonesia be...
Into the Crocodile Pit•   Combines an authoritarian government with a pro   pro-    fair distribution economic orientation...
Slow but Steady•   Combines a democratic government with pro fair                                                pro-fair ...
Contoh:China Scenarios to 2025         dadang-solihin.blogspot.com   38
Regional Ties•   Regional Ties describes how China continues on the    path of reform despite an international environment...
Unfulfilled Promise•   Unfulfilled Promise describes a China where the desire    for economic development is not supported...
New Silk Road•   New Silk Road describes the flourishing economic and    cultural rise of China, a feat achieved despite t...
Contoh:India Scenarios to 2025        dadang-solihin.blogspot.com   42
Bolly World•   “Bollywood” is the name given to the highly successful    Indian film industry famous for its masala movies...
Pahale I di                            P h l India•   “Pahale India” means “India First” and this is reflected    in the s...
Atakta Bharat•   “Atakta Bharat” describes an India “getting stuck without     Atakta Bharat                          gett...
ContohPandangan dari Jawa Barat: Skenario Indonesia         2010 (Bandung, 2 Januari 2000)                          Ekonom...
Diagram Pohon Skenario Indonesia             2010            Tinggi              Skenario 1: Zamrud                       ...
Zamrud Berserakan• Indonesia terpecah, pelanggaran hak asasi manusia  sering terjadi.• Peranan masyarakat rendah, setelah ...
Riak Tangis di Nusa Damai•   Adanya ketidaksabaran masyarakat dan pemerintah Indonesia    setelah menyaksikan bahwa pengam...
Kawah B                  K   h Bergolak                             l k•   Keadaan Indonesia yang tak pernah reda sejak ru...
Fajar Menyingsing Kabut Mulai Tersibak          Menyingsing,•   Masyarakat dan pemerintah konsisten dan sabar untuk    mem...
Contoh: Indonesia 2025                              Visi Indonesia 20251   Indonesia    Menjadi bangsa yang unggul dengan ...
Daftar PustakaEisy, Muhammad Ridlo (2000) Pertemuan Puncak - Dialog Regional Jawa Eisy,       Barat Menyusun Skenario Indo...
Terima Kasih    dadang-solihin.blogspot.com   54
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Perumusan Skenario Planning dalam rangka Memperkuat Sistem Perencanaan Pembangunan dan Kinerja Organisasi dengan Pendekatan Sistemik

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Scenario planning is the combination of scenario analysis for strategic purposes and strategic planning based on the outcome of the scenario phase

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Perumusan Skenario Planning dalam rangka Memperkuat Sistem Perencanaan Pembangunan dan Kinerja Organisasi dengan Pendekatan Sistemik

  1. 1. Perumusan S P Scenario Planning d l i Pl i dalam rangka k Memperkuat Sistem PerencanaanPembangunan dan Kinerja Organisasi dP b d Ki j O i i dengan Pendekatan Sistemik Drs. H. Dadang Solihin, MA Seminar Forum SANKRIMenerawang Pembangunan Wilayah di Masa Depan dengan Scenario Planning Samarinda, 26 November 2007
  2. 2. Dadang Solihin’s Profile Dadang holds a MA degree ( g g (Economics), University of ) y Colorado, USA. His previous post is Head, Center for Research Data and Information at DPD Secretariat General as well as Deputy Director for Information of Spatial Planning and Land Use Management at Indonesian National Development Planning Agency (Bappenas). Beside working as Assistant Professor at Graduate School of Asia- Asia Pacific Studies, Waseda University, Tokyo, Japan, he also active as Associate Professor at University of Darma Persada, Jakarta, Indonesia. He got various training around the globe included Advanced International globe, Training Programme of Information Technology Management, at Karlstad City, Sweden (2005); the Training Seminar on Land Use and Management, Taiwan (2004); Developing Multimedia Applications for Managers Kuala Managers, Lumpur, Malaysia (2003); Applied Policy Development Training, Vancouver, Canada (2002); Local Government Administration Training Course, Hiroshima, Japan ( 00 ); a d Regional Development a d Planning Training os a, Japa (2001); and eg o a e e op e and a g a g Course, Sapporo, Japan (1999). He published more than five books regarding local autonomous. You can reach Dadang Solihin by email at dadangsol@yahoo.com or by his mobile at +62812 932 2202 dadang-solihin.blogspot.com 2
  3. 3. Materi Perencanaan Sistem P Si t Perencanaan P b Pembangunan N i Nasional l (SPPN) Scenario Planning g Contoh Scenario Planning – Indonesia 2010 – China 2025 – India 2025 – Indonesia 2025 dadang-solihin.blogspot.com 3
  4. 4. Perencanaan dadang-solihin.blogspot.com 4
  5. 5. Perencanaan• Suatu proses untuk menentukan tindakan masa depan yang tepat, melalui urutan pilihan, dengan memperhitungkan sumber d hit k b daya yang t tersedia. di• Proses pengambilan keputusan dari sejumlah pilihan untuk mencapai suatu tujuan yang dikehendaki. dadang-solihin.blogspot.com 5
  6. 6. Fungsi/Fungsi/Manfaat Perencanaan Sebagai penuntun arah Minimalisasi K tid k Mi i li i Ketidakpastian ti Minimalisasi inefisiensi sumber daya Penetapan SStandar dalam Pengawasan Kualitas dadang-solihin.blogspot.com 6
  7. 7. Syarat PerencanaanHarus memiliki, mengetahui, dan memperhitungkan:1. Tujuan akhir yang dikehendaki.2. Sasaran-sasaran dan prioritas untuk mewujudkannya (yang mencerminkan pemilihan d i b b i k ilih dari berbagai alternatif). i lt tif)3. Jangka waktu mencapai sasaran-sasaran tersebut.4. Masalah masalah4 Masalah-masalah yang dihadapi dihadapi.5. Modal atau sumber daya yang akan digunakan serta pengalokasiannya.6. kebijakan-kebijakan t k6 k bij k k bij k untuk melaksanakannya. l k k7. Orang, organisasi, atau badan pelaksananya.8.8 Mekanisme pemantauan evaluasi dan pengawasan pemantauan, evaluasi, pelaksanaannya. dadang-solihin.blogspot.com 7
  8. 8. Kegagalan Perencanaan1. Penyusunan perencanaan tidak tepat, mungkin karena:  informasinya kurang lengkap,  metodologinya belum dikuasai,  perencanaannya tidak realistis sehingga tidak mungkin pernah bisa terlaksana  pengaruh politis terlalu besar sehingga pertimbangan- pertimbangan teknis perencanaan diabaikan diabaikan.2. Perencanaannya mungkin baik, tetapi pelaksanaannya tidak seperti seharusnya.  kegagalan terjadi karena tidak berkaitnya perencanaan dengan pelaksanaannya.  aparat pelaksana tidak siap atau tidak kompeten,  masyarakat tidak punya kesempatan berpartisipasi sehingga tidak mendukungnya. dadang-solihin.blogspot.com 8
  9. 9. Kegagalan Perencanaan g g3. perencanaan mengikuti paradigma yang ternyata tidak sesuai dengan k di i d perkembangan serta tid k d d kondisi dan k b t tidak dapat mengatasi t t i masalah mendasar negara berkembang.  Misalnya, orientasi semata-mata pada pertumbuhan yang menyebabkan makin melebarnya kesenjangan kesenjangan.  Dengan demikian, yang keliru bukan semata-mata perencanaannya, tetapi falsafah atau konsep di balik perencanaan itu.4. karena perencanaan diartikan sebagai pengaturan total kehidupan manusia sampai yang paling kecil sekalipun.  P Perencanaan di sini tid k memberikan k i i tidak b ik kesempatan t berkembangnya prakarsa individu dan pengembangan kapasitas serta potensi masyarakat secara penuh.  Sistem ini bertentangan dengan hukum penawaran dan permintaan karena pemerintah mengatur semuanya.  Perencanaan seperti inilah yang disebut sebagai sistem perencanaan terpusat (centrally planned system). dadang-solihin.blogspot.com 9
  10. 10. Sistem Perencanaan yang Berhasil• Sistem perencanaan yang mendorong berkembangnya mekanisme pasar dan peran serta masyarakat. masyarakat• Dalam sistem ini perencanaan dilakukan dengan menentukan sasaran-sasaran secara garis besar, g , baik di bidang sosial maupun ekonomi, dan pelaku utamanya adalah masyarakat dan usaha swasta. dadang-solihin.blogspot.com 10
  11. 11. Perencanaan yang Ideal y gInteractive Planning• Partisipatif: masyarakat yang akan memperoleh manfaat dari p perencanaan harus turut serta dalam p prosesnya. y• Kesinambungan: perencanaan tidak hanya berhenti pada satu tahap; tetapi harus berlanjut sehingga menjamin adanya kemajuan terus-menerus dalam kesejahteraan, dan jangan sampai t j di k i terjadi kemunduran. d• Holistik: masalah dalam perencanaan dan pelaksanaannya tidak dapat hanya dilihat dari satu sisi (atau sektor) tetapi harus dilihat dari berbagai aspek, dan dalam keutuhan konsep secara aspek keseluruhan.• Mengandung sistem yang dapat berkembang (a learning and adaptive system).• Terbuka dan demokratis (a pluralistic social setting). dadang-solihin.blogspot.com 11
  12. 12. Sistem PerencanaanPembangunan Nasional (SPPN) dadang-solihin.blogspot.com 12
  13. 13. Apa itu SPPN? pSPPN adalah satu kesatuan tata cara perencanaan pembangunan untuk menghasilkan rencana- rencana pembangunan dalam jangka panjang, jangka panjang menengah, dan tahunan yang dilaksanakan oleh unsur y g penyelenggara negara dan masyarakat di tingkat pusat dan daerah. dadang-solihin.blogspot.com 13
  14. 14. Tujuan SPPN jMendukung koordinasi antar-pelaku pembangunan.Menjamin terciptanya integrasi, sinkronisasi, dansinergi baik antar-Daerah, antar-ruang, antar-waktu,antar-fungsi pemerintah maupun antara Pusat danDaerah.Menjamin keterkaitan dan konsistensi antaraperencanaan, penganggaran, pelaksanaan, danpengawasanpengawasan.Mengoptimalkan partisipasi masyarakat.Menjamin tercapainya penggunaan sumber dayasecara efisien, efektif, berkeadilan, danberkelanjutan. dadang-solihin.blogspot.com 14
  15. 15. Proses PerencanaanPendekatan Politik:Pemilihan Presiden/Kepala DP ilih P id /K l Daerah menghasilkan h h ilkrencana pembangunan hasil proses politik (public choicetheory of planning), khususnya penjabaran Visi dan Misidalam RPJM/D RPJM/D.Proses Teknokratik:Menggunakan metode dan kerangka berpikir ilmiah olehlembaga atau satuan kerja yang secara fungsionalbertugas untuk itu.Partisipatif:Dilaksanakan dengan melibatkan seluruh stakeholders,antara lain melalui Musrenbang.Proses top-down dan bottom-up:Dilaksanakan menurut jenjang pemerintahan. dadang-solihin.blogspot.com 15
  16. 16. Tahapan Perencanaan p1.1 Penyusunan Rencana  Rancangan Rencana Pembangunan Nasional / Daerah  Rancangan Rencana Kerja Dep / Lembaga SKPD  Musyawarah Perencanaan Pembangunan  Rancangan Akhir Rencana Pembangunan2.2 Penetapan Rencana  RPJP Nas dgn UU dan RPJP Daerah dgn Perda  RPJM dengan Keputusan Presiden / Kepala Daerah  RKP / RKPD dengan Kep. Presiden / Kepala Daerah3. Pengendalian Pelaksanaan Rencana4. Evaluasi Kinerja dadang-solihin.blogspot.com 16
  17. 17. Scenario Planning dadang-solihin.blogspot.com 17
  18. 18. Apa itu Scenario Planning?• “An internally consistent view of what the future might An turn out to be” (Michael Porter, 1985).• “A tool [for] ordering one’s perceptions about [ ] g p p alternative future environments in which one’s decision might be played out right” (Peter Schwartz, 1991). 1991)• “That part of strategic planning which relates to the tools and technologies for managing the uncertainties g g g of the future” (Gill Ringland, 1998).• “A disciplined method for imaging possible futures in which organizational d i i hi h i ti l decisions may b played out” be l d t” (Paul Shoemaker, 1995). dadang-solihin.blogspot.com 18
  19. 19. Apa itu Scenario Planning?• Scenario Planning is a model that can be used to explore and learn the future in which a corporate strategy is formed.• It works by describing a small number of scenarios, b k b d ibi ll b f i by creating stories how the future may unfold, and how this may affect an issue that confronts the corporation.• Scenarios are carefully crafted stories about the future embodying a wide variety of ideas and integrating them in a way that is communicable and useful. y• Scenarios help us to link uncertainties about the future to the decisions that we must make today (Royal Dutch Shell) Shell). dadang-solihin.blogspot.com 19
  20. 20. Apa itu Scenario Planning?• The scenario planning method works by understanding the nature and impact of the most uncertain and important driving forces affecting the future.• It is a group process which encourages knowledge exchange and development of mutual deeper understanding of central issues that are important to the future of your business.• The goal is to create and craft a number of diverging stories by extrapolating uncertain and heavily influencing driving forces. p g y g g• The stories, plus the processes to create them, have a dual aim: – to increase the knowledge of the business environment and g – to widen both the receivers and participants perception of possible future events.• The method is most widely used as a strategic management y g g tool, but it is also used for enabling group discussion about a common future. dadang-solihin.blogspot.com 20
  21. 21. Apa itu Scenario Planning?• Scenario planning is the combination of scenario analysis for strategic purposes and strategic planning based on the outcome of the scenario phase (Lindgren, 2003) SCENARIO generation Strategic PLANNING Time dadang-solihin.blogspot.com 21
  22. 22. Perbedaan antara Scenario, Forecast, Scenario Forecast dan Visions Scenario Forecast VisionsPossible, plausible Probable futures Desired futurefuturesUncertainty based Based on certain Value based relationsIllustrate risks Hide risk Hide riskQualitative or Quantitative Usually qualitativequantitativeNeeded to know what Needed to dare to Energizing g gwe decide decideRarely used Daily used Relatively often usedStrong in medium to Strong in short-term short term Function as triggerslong-term perspective perspective and low for voluntary changeand medium to high degree of uncertaintyuncertainties dadang-solihin.blogspot.com 22
  23. 23. Dimensi Focus: newScenario PlS i Planning i business Business New development/ thinking/ Concept Innovation Paradigm development shift Purpose: Purpose: Strategy/ Scenario Scenario prerequisite action planning planning learning for change Strategy Risk- development/ consciousness/ Evaluation Organizational g Need for development renewal Focus: old business dadang-solihin.blogspot.com 23
  24. 24. Karakteristik Traditional Planning dan Scenario Pl S i Planning i Traditional Planning g Scenario Planning g Partial, “Everything else being Overall, “Nothing else beingPerspective equal” equal” Quantitative, objective Quantitative objective, known Qualitative, Qualitative not necessarilyVariables quantitative, subjective, known or hiddenRelationships Statistical, stable structures Dynamic, emerging structures The past explains the present The future is the raison d’etre ofExplanation the presentPicture of futurePi ff Simple d Si l and certain t i Multiple d M lti l and uncertain t i Determinist and quantitative Intention analysis, qualitative andMethod models (economic, stochastic models (cross-impact mathematical) and systems analysis)Attitude to the Passive or adaptive (the future Active and creative (the future is will be) created)future dadang-solihin.blogspot.com 24
  25. 25. Steps in Scenario Planning1. Identify people who will contribute a wide range of perspectives.2. Comprehensive interviews/workshop about how participants see big shifts coming in society, economics, politics, g g y, ,p , technology, etc.3. Group (cluster) these views into connected patterns.4. Group draws a list of p p priorities ( (the best ideas). )5. Create rough pictures of the future, based on these priorities. Stories and rough scenarios.6. Add further detail to get impact scenarios. Determine in what g p way each scenario will affect the corporation.7. Identify early warning signals. Things that are indicative for a particular scenario to unfold.8. The scenarios are monitored, evaluated and reviewed. dadang-solihin.blogspot.com 25
  26. 26. Tahapan Membuat Skenario1. Decide driving forces (istilah lain : drivers / drivers for change)2. Find key uncertainties : drivers yang paling important & unpredictable.3.3 Group linked drivers into a viable framework (kalau bisa reduce to yang bisa, terpenting/strategic drivers)4. Draft Scenarios (plot menjadi 2-4 scenarios, lalu buat narasinya)5. Strategize (lihat strategic challenges, susun strategic Options & identify early warning signs untuk each scenario) Driving Strategic Strategic Strategic Forces Drivers Challenges OptionsFaktor-faktor yang Driving Forces Berbagai arah Action Plan yangdapat memicu yang paling ketidakpastian perlu disusun untukperubahan (Sosial, berpengaruh Strategic mewujudkan VisiDemografi, Ekonomi, terhadap masa Drivers yang sekaligus meresponTekno, Politik,T k P litik depan organisasi/ d i i/ dapat d t Strategic ChallengesLingkungan, Values) negara. Contoh: menghambat/ human capital, menciptakan trade openness, peluang dalam governance mewujudkan Visi dadang-solihin.blogspot.com 26
  27. 27. Some Traps to Avoid1.1 Treating scenarios as forecasts. forecasts2. Constructing scenarios based on too simplistic a difference. Such as optimistic and pessimistic.3.3 Failing to make the scenario global enough in scope scope.4. Failing to focus the scenarios in areas of potential impact on the enterprise.5.5 Treating scenarios as an informational or instructional tool rather than for participative learning and/or strategy formation.6. Not having an adequate process for engaging management teams in the scenario planning p p g process.7. Failing to put enough imaginative stimulus into the scenario design.8. Not using an experienced facilitator. g p dadang-solihin.blogspot.com 27
  28. 28. Level of Strategic Thinking Paradigm Within paradigm challenging strategies strategiesStrategic thinking - Strategy as - Scenarios as a strong prolongation or source of higher-level modification of the strategic thinking and past planning Future trapStrategic thinking Mindless action - Scenarios as science weak - Tactical and action or intellectual exercise planning with no connection to strategic action Futures focus weak Futures focus strong dadang-solihin.blogspot.com 28
  29. 29. Level of Integration g Level ofintegration Future integration Integrates long-term perspectives with mid- term strategies and short-term actions Strategy integration Integrates different businesses and products in search for strategic leverage Process integration Integrates operational procedures in search for efficient processes Time horizon dadang-solihin.blogspot.com 29
  30. 30. Models for Scenario Project Participation Organization Expert model model model Alone With a group in In training/The planner the th organization i ti instructing the i t ti thworks organization The planner The planner The plannerControl controls the takes part in and stays outside the process leads the process process Is presented by p y Is owned and Is owned by the yThe Result the planner presented by the organization group The planner The planner The planner completes the maintains a passesRelationship assignment relationship with responsibility to the group the group dadang-solihin.blogspot.com 30
  31. 31. Scenarios and Uncertainties Uncertainty A Scenario 1 Scenario 2Uncertainty B Scenario 3 Scenario 4 dadang-solihin.blogspot.com 31
  32. 32. Contoh: Daily Newspapers Strong demand for digital information Wait and Cyberworld y see 2010Newspapers Newspapersconservative IT-active Business as High-tech usual p production Weak demand for digital information dadang-solihin.blogspot.com 32
  33. 33. Contoh: Scenario Indonesia 2010 Plot Scenario & Buat Narasinya Authoritarian A th it i government t Pro-fairPro-growth distribution economic economicorientation orientation i t ti Democratic government dadang-solihin.blogspot.com 33
  34. 34. On the Edge• Authoritarian government system with a pro-growth pro growth economic orientation.• Separatist movements cause Indonesia to disintegrate. Conflicts between the regions and the g g centre spread to become inter-religious and inter- ethnic conflicts, labor conflicts, and anti-Chinese violence.• Anarchy i A h increases. Ci il di b di Civil disobedience grows. Education and religion are used to enforce ideological uniformity.• Economic growth occurs through big capital and high technology.• After Aceh and Papua, Riau secedes from Indonesia. Indonesia dadang-solihin.blogspot.com 34
  35. 35. Padding a Leaky Boat• Combines a democratic government system with a pro-growth economic orientation.• Indonesia become democratic, with a free press and the rule of law.• Regional autonomy works. Economic problems are overcome through growth both through growth, foreign investment and using domestic assets. dadang-solihin.blogspot.com 35
  36. 36. Into the Crocodile Pit• Combines an authoritarian government with a pro pro- fair distribution economic orientation.• Indonesia becomes more authoritarian due to economic isolation. To keep up popular subsidies, the government over-exploits natural resources.• Factories close, as resources grow scarce. close scarce Forced agriculture is brought backs, as in colonial times.• Dissidents Di id t are k t dkept down b t by terror. N ti Nationalist li t soldiers join populist forces to launch a coup d’etat. dadang-solihin.blogspot.com 36
  37. 37. Slow but Steady• Combines a democratic government with pro fair pro-fair distribution economic orientation.• Successful regional autonomy and decentralization saves Indonesia from destruction• Democracy survives the end of the New Order.• Foreign investors return as does international return, credibility.• Violence recedes. Justice becomes the basis for resolving conflict.• Economic growth is low profile, but fait distribution reaches the regions regions. dadang-solihin.blogspot.com 37
  38. 38. Contoh:China Scenarios to 2025 dadang-solihin.blogspot.com 38
  39. 39. Regional Ties• Regional Ties describes how China continues on the path of reform despite an international environment h f f d i i i l i that becomes increasingly difficult. Chinese leadership and vision facilitate the forging of regional ties that help overcome historical enmities and restore prosperity in Asia.• The scenario is written as a Government White Paper, reflecting on 20 years of progress in China, a medium g y p g , often used by the Chinese government to communicate to the public-at-large on a major issue, to lay out its policy or to reflect on the past. dadang-solihin.blogspot.com 39
  40. 40. Unfulfilled Promise• Unfulfilled Promise describes a China where the desire for economic development is not supported by the necessary structural reforms. The name reflects the general sentiment among the Chinese people that the promise made to them in terms of inclusive economic development has been largely unfulfilled.• The story is told as an article in a Western online journal and reviews China’s development over the China s period 2006-2025. dadang-solihin.blogspot.com 40
  41. 41. New Silk Road• New Silk Road describes the flourishing economic and cultural rise of China, a feat achieved despite the presence of substantial internal obstacles The obstacles. scenario reflects China’s peaceful geopolitical integration and its sizeable role in the exchange of goods, services goods services, investments and ideas In this way it ideas. recreates the original Silk Road.• The scenario is told using the Online Encyclopaedia of the World and provides a factual account of what China has achieved over a 20-year period. dadang-solihin.blogspot.com 41
  42. 42. Contoh:India Scenarios to 2025 dadang-solihin.blogspot.com 42
  43. 43. Bolly World• “Bollywood” is the name given to the highly successful Indian film industry famous for its masala movies— industry, movies melodramatic extravaganzas with spectacular song and dance numbers. The title “Bolly World” reflects a future in which India’s leaders are so dazzled by the immediate gains t be made i i t i to b d in international markets th t th f il t ti l k t that they fail to implement much needed domestic reforms.• The scenario is told as a conversation overheard on a plane flying from Delhi to Dubai in 2025 A chartered 2025. accountant tells his traveling companion why he thinks India is no longer experiencing international success and is facing so many p g y problems. As he p puts it, the situation “is j , just like Bollywood itself—once you get behind all the glitter and the razzmatazz, you realize—the whole thing is just an illusion.” dadang-solihin.blogspot.com 43
  44. 44. Pahale I di P h l India• “Pahale India” means “India First” and this is reflected in the scenario in at least three ways: 1. people from across India put the needs of their community and country first; 2. 2 India emerges as a global economic leader; and 3. India’s dynamic internal developments make it a source of inspiration for the rest of the world.• This story is told by a successful Indian business woman at the 40th India Economic Summit in 2025. Her keynote speech explores the reasons for India’s remarkable success. k bl dadang-solihin.blogspot.com 44
  45. 45. Atakta Bharat• “Atakta Bharat” describes an India “getting stuck without Atakta Bharat getting direction” reflecting the lack of unified action and absence of effective leadership that, in this scenario, create a continuous and cumulative source of problems for India.• The scenario is told as the transcript of a speech given at the monthly forum of the Hyderabad GM Crop Collective. The collective—a collaboration between the Hyderabad Farmers, Farmers Seed Developers and Rural Workers Cooperatives—is an example of one of the more positive responses made by some Indians to the multitude of troubles facing India. g• The speech itself also draws attention to the importance of self-organization and self-help. Entitled “India’s last 20 years: Why we must help ourselves”, it explores how initial well i t ti ll intentioned attempts at reform in India failed—because d tt t t f i I di f il d b of corruption, inadequate planning and insufficient political will. The speaker raises a number of what he calls “if onlys” to describe how India’s future could have been very India s different. dadang-solihin.blogspot.com 45
  46. 46. ContohPandangan dari Jawa Barat: Skenario Indonesia 2010 (Bandung, 2 Januari 2000) Ekonomi Low Govern L Skenario 4 Skenario 2 Fajar Riak Tangis nment Interve Menyingsing, Menyingsing di Nusa Kabut Mulai Damai Tersibak ention Tertutup Terbuka Skenario 1 High Governme Intervention Skenario 3 Zamrud ent Kawah Berserakan Bergolak dadang-solihin.blogspot.com 46
  47. 47. Diagram Pohon Skenario Indonesia 2010 Tinggi Skenario 1: Zamrud Berserakan Tertutup Skenario 2: Riak Rendah Tangis di Nusa Damai Tinggi Ti i Skenario 3: Kawah Bergolak Terbuka Skenario 4: F j Sk i 4 Fajar Rendah Menyingsing, Kabut Mulai Tersibak dadang-solihin.blogspot.com 47
  48. 48. Zamrud Berserakan• Indonesia terpecah, pelanggaran hak asasi manusia sering terjadi.• Peranan masyarakat rendah, setelah terjadinya kudeta yang mengubah keadaan masyarakat terbuka menjadi masyarakat tertutup. j y p• Untuk bertahan hidup, pemerintah melakukan intervensi ekonomi yang sangat tinggi.• Kelaparan terjadi di mana mana Pada saat yang mana-mana. sama Indonesia dikucilkan oleh masyarakat dunia. dadang-solihin.blogspot.com 48
  49. 49. Riak Tangis di Nusa Damai• Adanya ketidaksabaran masyarakat dan pemerintah Indonesia setelah menyaksikan bahwa pengambilan keputusan dan kompromi dalam masyarakat terbuka terlalu banyak memakan waktu dan energi, yang disertai dengan perdebatan sengit dan bising. P d h l masalah yang dih d i I d bi i Padahal l h dihadapi Indonesia sangat b t i t berat dan memerlukan penanganan yang cepat.• Maka diambillah pilihan untuk membatasi keterbukaan masyarakat, masyarakat sehingga pengambilan keputusan bisa lebih cepat dan kerja bisa lebih efisien.• Di bidang ekonomi, pemerintah hanya sedikit melakukan intervensi, intervensi sehingga pertumbuhan berlangsung cepat Namun cepat. karena kebijakan negara memprioritaskan ekonomi, dan untuk itu hak-hak rakyat banyak dikorbankan.• Pada akhirnya, masyarakat dunia tidak bisa mentoleransi lagi y , y g terhadap Indonesia, dan kampanye pemboikotan terhadap produk Indonesia dilancarkan di seluruh dunia. dadang-solihin.blogspot.com 49
  50. 50. Kawah B K h Bergolak l k• Keadaan Indonesia yang tak pernah reda sejak runtuhnya Orde Baru.• Masyarakat terbuka merangsang perdebatan tidak ada hentinya di kalangan masyarakat.• Waktu dan energi hanya digunakan untuk berdebat dan mengatasi pergolakan politik Padahal tekanan kemiskinan politik. akibat krisis ekonomi perlu mendapat penyelesaian segera.• Untuk mengatasi masalah kemiskinan ini sesegera mungkin, maka pemerintah melakukan intervensi yang tinggi demi menyelamatkan masyarakat miskin, akibatnya pengurasan sumber daya alam tak terkendali sama sekali.• Indonesia bagaikan kawah yang bergolak. Setiap waktu bisa meletus dan memporakporandakan Indonesia. l d k d k I d i dadang-solihin.blogspot.com 50
  51. 51. Fajar Menyingsing Kabut Mulai Tersibak Menyingsing,• Masyarakat dan pemerintah konsisten dan sabar untuk membangun masyarakat terbuka, yang mendorong makin kuatnya peranan masyarakat dan makin berkurangnya kekuasaan pemerintah.• Ketidaksabaran memang terus menggoda dan korban benar- benar berjatuhan. Berkali-kali masyarakat dan pemerintah tergoda untuk mengurangi keterbukaan masyarakat, tapi niat itu dikalahkan dengan ketakutan makin terancamnya kemanusiaan dan Indonesia.• Di bidang ekonomi, pemerintah mengurangi intervensinya, kecuali beras beras.• Konflik-konflik horisontal yang terjadi di awal pemerintahan Gus Dur membuat orang makin takut terhadap perpecahan. Jika Indonesia pecah, maka nusantara akan kembali seperti p , p sebelum dijajah Belanda.• Perang antar negara baru tak akan terelakkan. Ketakutan perang antar negara -pecahan Indonesia- inilah yang menjadikan masyarakat tetap menjaga k j dik k tt t j kesatuan Indonesia. t I d i dadang-solihin.blogspot.com 51
  52. 52. Contoh: Indonesia 2025 Visi Indonesia 20251 Indonesia Menjadi bangsa yang unggul dengan tetap mempertahankan jati diri dan identitas nasional di lingkungan g g g global p pada tahun 20252 Pemerintah Menempatkan Indonesia sebagai negara yang mempunyai standar hidup dan daya saing di Nusantara Jaya atas rata-rata dunia di tahun 2025 Bangsa dan negara yang unggul dan menjadi pemain utama di lingkungan global Kebijakan K bij k Sengsara Nasional Bangsa dan negara yang Skenario 3 tetap miskin dan tertatih- tatih di era globalisasi Skenario 2 Prahara Bangsa dan negara yang Skenario 1 gagal dan terjungkal di tahun 2025 2025 dadang-solihin.blogspot.com 52
  53. 53. Daftar PustakaEisy, Muhammad Ridlo (2000) Pertemuan Puncak - Dialog Regional Jawa Eisy, Barat Menyusun Skenario Indonesia Masa Depan Pandangan dari Jawa Barat : Skenario Indonesia 2010, http://www.geocities.com/ind2010/serta.htmLINGREN, M tLINGREN Mats and Hans Bandhold, 2003 “S dH B dh ld 2003, “Scenario Pl i Planning, th Li k i the Link between Future and Strategy”, New York: Palgrave MacMillanHermana, Budi (2007) “Peran BI Menuju Indonesia 2025: Prahara, Sengsara, Sengsara atau Nusantara Jaya?”, Universitas Gunadarma Jaya?RINGLAND, Gill, 2006.Scenario Planning, West Sussex: John Willey & Sons LtdUU 25/2004 tentang Sistem Perencanaan Pembangunan Nasional“What is Scenario Planning?”, http://www.12manage.com/ methods_scenario_planning.htmlWorld Economic Forum (2006) World Scenario Series China and the Series, World: Scenarios to 2025, www.weforum.orgWorld Economic Forum (2006) World Scenario Series, India and the World: Scenarios to 2025, www.weforum.org dadang-solihin.blogspot.com 53
  54. 54. Terima Kasih dadang-solihin.blogspot.com 54

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