NC Isaak Walton

DoesWind EnergyMake Sense? John Droz, jr. Physicist & Environmental Advocate Izaak Walton 2/28/12 (rev 5/18/12)

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Our Energy Policies — from Lobbyists or ScienceThis is a presentation given at a NC Isaak Walton League meeting February 28, 2012.This is an abbreviated (20 minute) discussion about various key aspects of the US electricity grid, and the electrical power source choices wehave. This is a complicated matter, so I have tried to strike a balance between being too technical and too simplified. The FULL version ofthis part is EnergyPresentation.Info.The underlying message is that our energy decisions should be made on the basis of sound SCIENCE — not on what lobbyists say.Hopefully you have already been to my website: “WindPowerFacts.Info” which has other useful supporting information.My expectation is that after legislators get more informed — and do some Critical Thinking — that they will be in a much better position toexecute informed cost-beneficial energy and environmental policies.In my live presentation there is commentary that accompanies each slide, and this is not included here.Feel free to use this material to make a presentation to your own representatives. In any case after you go through this, I will be glad topersonally respond to any emails you send me: “aaprjohn@northnet.org”.Please see References and credits ,my brief “resume,” the copyright notice, disclaimer, contact information: all at the end ofEnergyPresentation.Info. [Note that I will indicate updates on the material by a revision date on the first slide.] If you like what you see,please pass it on to other open-minded people, plus your federal, state and local representatives. — ENJOY! john droz, jr. © john droz, jr.

A Lot More About What You’ll See Tonight, is Online at:EnergyPresentation.Info

There are two things that are more difficult than making a public speech:climbing a wall which is leaning toward you, andkissing a girl who is leaning away from you. — Winston Churchill

Key Izaak Walton Positions — 1) The League was formed in 1922 to save outdoor America for future generations. 2) America needs smart solutions that are good for the environment and the economy at the same time, & 3) to conserve, maintain, protect, and restore the soil, forest, water, and other natural resources of the United States and other lands.

Is Promotion of Wind EnergyConsistent with those 3 Positions?

The basic objectiveof any con.

How were snake oil salesmen able to take advantage of good people?1 - By telling them what they wanted to hear, and2 - by counting on the fact that few people take the time to properly check things out!

We look back and say how could these people be so gullible?But is it any different today?

Yes —It’s Worse!

There isno penaltyfor makingunscientific claims.

We’ve comefull circle.

The solution to almost any con is simple:1 - don’t believe everything you hear from sales people, and2 - thoroughly check things out!

In short, my position is that — 1) we do have environmental and energy issues, and 2) these matters should be solved scientifically.

It’s Lobbyists vs Science—and Science is Losing

What Is Critical Thinking?A thorough, open-minded, logical effort to examine a claim, in the light of applicable evidence. One of the key ingredients of true science — and critical thinking — is SKEPTICISM

Some Relevant Carl Sagan Quotes To Ponder —1 - Skeptical scrutiny is the means by which deep thoughts can be separated from deep nonsense.2 - We live in a society exquisitely dependent on science and technology, in which hardly anyone knows anything about science and technology.3 - I am often amazed at how much more capability and enthusiasm for science there is among elementary school youngsters than among college students.4 - We have arranged things so that almost no one understands science and technology. This is a prescription for disaster. We might get away with it for awhile, but sooner or later this combustible mixture of ignorance and power is going to blow up in our faces.

My Three Hats Here:#1 - Physicist#2 - Economist#3 - Environmentalist

Twelve Turbines in a Rural Community © john droz, jr.

Wind Power Fails to Deliver the GoodsBy this I mean that:1) wind energy is not a technically sound solution to provide us power, or to meaningfully reduce global warming, and2) wind energy is not an economically viable source of energy on its own, and3) wind energy is not environmentally responsible.

The Soundbite:Wind Energy = High Cost, Low Benefits

Science is a PROCESS that Works Like This:When a new idea is proposed as a potential solution to a problem,it is up to the advocates to PROVE its efficacy (not the other way around).

The Process is called the Scientific Method — which involves a: 1) comprehensive, 2) objective, 3) transparent, and 4) empirical based analysis. In the case of Wind Energy, this has never been done!

Sound Scientific Solutions is the Umbrella position that covers ALL important concerns:TECHNICAL ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENTAL(e.g. reliability, (e.g. taxpayer cost, (e.g. CO2 savings,dispatchability, ratepayer costs, noise, flicker, transmission, agricultural impact, birds & bats, other Grid property values, other health effects, limitations) net jobs, etc.) raw material extraction and processing, etc.)

Part 1:A Teensie Technical Tidbit

There is NO SUCH THINGas wind energy by itself!

Wind Energy MUST HAVE a fast-responding, augmentingsource of power available 24/7/365. NO other conventional source of electricity has this requirement!

For a variety oftechnical and economic reasons,this fast-responding, augmenting source of power is usually gas.

So, ALL statements about theconsequences of this wind project (calculations of cost, impact on air quality, etc.) MUST address the WIND + GAS Package.

The developer’s “Fact Sheet” does NOT do this —which is a serious misrepresentation.

Part 2:Eying Environmental Effects

Some citizens say that they supportsimilar wind projects because they are “Green.”

Is Wind Energy Really Green? Let’s take a quick look at just one part of a turbine...

Many WindTurbines use2000± Poundsof Rare Earth Elementsper rated MW. So what?

The processing ofRare Earth Elements involves dozens of steps, of caustic chemical baths,or blast furnace separations. Each of these results in a waste stream of severely polluted air, water, and residue.

Read for Yourself...

The processing of the Rare Earth Elements,for the 150 MW of Bay River Wind turbines will...1) destroy 30,000± square meters of vegetation,2) generate 9,000,000± cubic meters of highly toxic air pollution,3) pollute 43,000,000± gallons of wastewater (making it poisonous),4) produce 900,000,000± pounds of contaminated tailing sands, &5) result in 150,000± pounds of radioactive waste.

Yes, that’s right: processing the REEs used by the Bay River Wind turbinesresults in 150,000± pounds of radioactive waste!

Remember, the REEenvironmental impactis just ONE component of these turbines. There are otheradverse environmental consequences as well.

LIKE THIS

Now that you know that, is this an honest claim?

So, is Wind Energy Really Green? An objective look says NO!

After carefully looking into just this ONE turbine component, reconsider the following marketing claims:1 - Is Wind Energy really “renewable”?2 - Is Wind Energy really “sustainable”?3 - Does Wind Energy really give us energy “independence”? The inescapable answer is NO!

As time goes on, more environmentalists are speaking out — “Industrial wind projects don’t work. They produce a trickle of electricity at a vast cost to the consumer. They desecrate the landscape and make people’s lives a misery. And they don’t even cut carbon emissions. They are literally a waste of space…” Struan Stevenson: Chairman of the European Parliament’s Climate Change, Biodiversity & Sustainable Development Intergroup (11/11/11)

Part 3:Economics Explained

What Wind Energy Is Really All About

E-V-E-R-Y-T-H-I-N-Gabout the economics here is problematic!

Does wind energy provide economical electricity ?NO, not compared to conventional sources.Look at the real economics from three perspectives — a) Total Costs = higher than conventional sources. b) Ratepayer Costs = higher than conventional sources. c) Taxpayer Subsidies = higher than all conventional sources, combined!

Power Sources Total Costs Capital Operation Fuel Transmission {Wind costs do NOT take into account any costs: for backup generation, OR for extra transmission lines needed, OR for other ancillary requirements, OR for decommissioning.} Nuclear Geothermal Gas w CCS Coal w CSS Onshore Wind Offshore Wind EIA — Estimated Levelized Cost of New Generation Resources, 2016Note: this does not show the true cost of wind, which is wind plus a conventional source. john droz, jr. ©

What’s the Correlation with Higher Wind Energy Usage and Residential Electricity Rates?4035 Denmark Bad Renewables % ¢/KWH (2007 Data)30 Germany2520 Spain15 US10 Canada 5

$4,981 MAnnual Federal TAXPAYER Subsidies of Electrical Energy Sources: Totals 2010 US Energy Information Administration Subsidy Report: July 2011 [Direct + Tax + R&D +Electricity Support] Note that the total 2010 subsidies for wind energy exceed the totals for all the other conventional sources COMBINED! $1,189 M $2,234 M $654 M $215 M $4,981 M Coal Nuclear Nat Gas Hydro Wind

But what about local economics?

To begin with,all “enticements” are with your own money! Remember What Your Dad Said: There’s No Free Lunch!

To ACCURATELY know local economics,we need to get valid answers to four questions:1) Exactly how much of the jobs and economic claims are guaranteed?2) Specifically how much of the guaranteed jobs and economic benefits will go to North Carolina citizens?3) What are the NET jobs and economic benefits to North Carolina?4) Are there other resulting benefits or liabilities from such a project?

Question #1:Exactly how much of the developer’s job and economic claims are guaranteed?Answer: None.

Question #2:Specifically how much of the guaranteed jobs and economic benefits will go toNorth Carolina citizens?Answer: We have no idea. Most initial jobs will be to imported specialists.

Question #3:What are the NET jobs and economic benefits to North Carolina?Answer: There will be job and economic losses. See next slides!

Local Job Impact

One likely consequence is that a few of the farmers who have leases, will scale back their operation, orstop farming entirely. Here is one of many examples where this is exactly what happened elsewhere.

Here are the latest Pamlico County Tourism Jobs data...

Here is a comprehensive study about how wind development affects Tourism...

Here are the study’s conclusions about how wind development affects Tourism...

Are Their Job Claims Honest? Comparing to two nearby competitors,the Bay River job claims are about double the reality.

Pamlico County Annual Job Impact Due To Bay River WindIn other words, after a more honest jobs figure is used, there may well be a net jobs loss.

Local Economic Consequences

Here are the latest Pamlico County Tourism Income data...

Here is a government study about one financial impact from wind development...

Here are their conclusions of the crop loss due to killed bats to Pamlico County...

This doesn’t take into account things like more human health problems due to an increase of mosquitoes — where there is already enough of a problem that it is identified on the county’s web page...

Here is a scientific study about local weather impact from wind development...

Pamlico County Annual Economic Impact Due To Bay RiverThis does NOT include additional financial losses due to: = a $70 million — Tax reductions from nearby property devaluations, — Health effects from turbines, loss over the — Health effects from insect proliferation, 20 yr project life — Higher cost of electricity, etc.

Pamlico County Bay River Wind Impact Net Annual Job Loss = 1±Net Annual Economic Loss = $3.5± Million

Question #4:Are there other resulting benefits or liabilitiesfrom such a project?Answer:Yes, there are other substantial liabilities. Forexample, the many millions of dollars beinggiven to this developer (e.g. through tax credits): a) increase our country’s indebtedness, and b) is money borrowed from China. Are either of these in our interest to support?

Net Economic Assessment

Two puzzling statements here: 1 ”Enormousenvironmental benefits” and 2 “very low cost”.

More Puzzling Assertions(from the Izaak Walton “Fact Sheet”) 3 4 5

This is the point where we are now.Making the wrong choice will cost us for 20+ years.

The Wind Project Developer has ONE Objective: to squeeze the County & the Leaseholders for EVERYTHING they can get out of them.

We can chose the path thru thedark green forest. After all, the marketeers assured us that it would bean easy shortcut to get some“found money.”

The salesmenpromised us that the trip will be pleasant and successful. Any animals along the waywill be our friend!

Of course there were no guarantees.Once we go downthis path, we are on our own.

Don’t Take The Bait

NC Isaak Walton

by John Droz

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