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Heartland_Energy_Presentation

  1. 1. IS Wind Energy Based on Real Science? John Droz, jr. Physicist & Environmental Advocate Heartland: 7th ICCC 5/22/12 (rev 5/19/12) © john droz, jr.
  2. 2. Make SURE to View This Presentation in the FULL SCREEN Mode! Click the “FULL” icon in the lower right hand corner.
  3. 3. Do NOT click on the Triangle below to run this presentation! Instead, use your keyboard arrow keys to navigate. This will allow you to proceed at your own pace.
  4. 4. Our Energy Policies — from Lobbyists or Science This is a presentation given at the Heartland Conference, May 22, 2012. This is an abbreviated (20 minute) discussion about various key aspects of the US electricity grid, and the electrical power source choices we have. This is a complicated matter, so I have tried to strike a balance between being too technical and too simplified. The FULL version of this part is EnergyPresentation.Info. The underlying message is that our energy decisions should be made on the basis of sound SCIENCE — not on what lobbyists say. Hopefully you have already been to my website: “WindPowerFacts.Info” which has other useful supporting information. My expectation is that after legislators get more informed — and do some Critical Thinking — that they will be in a much better position to execute informed cost-beneficial energy and environmental policies. In my live presentation there is commentary that accompanies each slide, and this is not included here. Since I don’t have the space to include all of those, I identified the slides where the remarks were most important, and added them after those slides. [These “elaborated on” slides are identified with an asterisk in the upper right hand corner. On a few other slides I added short comments between the {...} brackets directly on the slides.] Feel free to use this material to make a presentation to your own representatives. In any case after you go through this, I will be glad to personally respond to any emails you send me: “aaprjohn@northnet.org”. References and credits are on the two slides just before the end. Please see my brief “resume,” the copyright notice, disclaimer, contact information: all at the end of EnergyPresentation.Info. [Note that I will indicate updates on the material by a revision letter on the first slide.] If you like what you see, please pass it on to other open-minded people, plus your federal, state and local representatives. — ENJOY! john droz, jr. © john droz, jr.
  5. 5. © john droz, jr.
  6. 6. There are two things that are more difficult than making a public speech: climbing a wall which is leaning toward you, and kissing a girl who is leaning away from you. — Winston Churchill © john droz, jr.
  7. 7. A Lot More About What You’ll See Today, is Online at: EnergyPresentation.Info © john droz, jr.
  8. 8. An Historical Perspective...
  9. 9. © john droz, jr.
  10. 10. The basic objective of any con. © john droz, jr.
  11. 11. © john droz, jr.
  12. 12. How were snake oil salesmen able to take advantage of good people? 1 - By telling them what they wanted to hear, and 2 - by counting on the fact that few people take the time to properly check things out! © john droz, jr.
  13. 13. We look back and say how could these people be so gullible? But is it any different today? © john droz, jr.
  14. 14. Yes — It’s Worse! © john droz, jr.
  15. 15. There is no penalty for making unscientific claims. © john droz, jr.
  16. 16. We’ve come full circle.
  17. 17. The solution to almost any con is simple: 1 - don’t believe everything you hear from sales people, and 2 - thoroughly check things out! © john droz, jr.
  18. 18. In short, my position is that — 1) we do have environmental and energy issues, and 2) these matters should be solved scientifically. © john droz, jr.
  19. 19. It’s Lobbyists vs Science —and Science is Losing
  20. 20. What Is Critical Thinking? A thorough, open-minded, logical effort to examine a claim, in the light of all applicable evidence. One of the key ingredients of true science — and critical thinking — is SKEPTICISM © john droz, jr.
  21. 21. Some Relevant Carl Sagan Quotes To Ponder — 1 - We live in a society exquisitely dependent on science and technology, in which hardly anyone knows anything about science and technology. 2 - We have arranged things so that almost no one understands science and technology. This is a prescription for disaster. We might get away with it for awhile, but sooner or later this combustible mixture of ignorance and power is going to blow up in our faces. 3 - I am often amazed at how much more capability and enthusiasm for science there is among elementary school youngsters than among college students. 4 - Skeptical scrutiny is the means by which deep thoughts can be separated from deep nonsense.
  22. 22. My Three Hats Here: #1 - Physicist #2 - Economist #3 - Environmentalist © john droz, jr.
  23. 23. Twelve Turbines in a Rural Community © john droz, jr.
  24. 24. Wind Power Fails to Deliver the Goods By this I mean that: 1) wind energy is not a technically sound solution to provide us power, or to meaningfully reduce global warming, and 2) wind energy is not an economically viable source of energy on its own, and 3) wind energy is not environmentally responsible. © john droz, jr.
  25. 25. The Soundbite: Wind Energy = High Cost, Low Benefits © john droz, jr.
  26. 26. Science is a PROCESS that Works Like This: When a new idea is proposed as a potential solution to a problem, it is up to the advocates to PROVE its efficacy (not the other way around). © john droz, jr.
  27. 27. The Process of doing a Scientific assessment — involves a: 1) comprehensive, 2) objective, 3) transparent, and 4) empirical based analysis. In the case of Wind Energy, this has never been done! © john droz, jr.
  28. 28. Sound Scientific Solutions is the Umbrella position that covers ALL important concerns: TECHNICAL ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENTAL (e.g. reliability, (e.g. taxpayer cost, (e.g. CO2 savings, dispatchability, ratepayer costs, noise, flicker, transmission, agricultural impact, birds & bats, other Grid property values, other health effects, limitations) net jobs, etc.) raw material extraction and processing, etc.) © john droz, jr.
  29. 29. How Does Wind Energy Fare in these Three Key Areas?
  30. 30. Sound Scientific Solutions A Teensie ∫ Part 1: Technical Tidbit
  31. 31. There is NO SUCH THING as wind energy by itself! © john droz, jr.
  32. 32. Wind Energy MUST HAVE a fast-responding, augmenting source of power available 24/7/365. NO other conventional source of electricity has this requirement! © john droz, jr.
  33. 33. For a variety of technical and economic reasons, this fast-responding, augmenting source of power is usually gas. © john droz, jr.
  34. 34. Read what a Utility Company says: “Integrating the variable capacity of wind energy undermines the time- tested, science driven technology plan required of all utilities. And that just isn’t right.” © john droz, jr.
  35. 35. An even more disturbing assessment from a utility executive... When National Grid’s CEO was challenged about integrating wind energy, he said: “Families would have to get used to only using power when it was available, rather than constantly.” © john droz, jr.
  36. 36. So, ALL statements about the consequences of this wind project (calculations of cost, impact on air quality, etc.) MUST address the WIND + GAS Package. © john droz, jr.
  37. 37. The wind industry’s omission of these (and other) technical realities is a misrepresentation of the situation.
  38. 38. Sound Scientific Solutions Eying Part 2: Environmental Effects
  39. 39. Some citizens say that they support wind projects because they are “Green.” © john droz, jr.
  40. 40. Is Wind Energy Really Green? Let’s take a quick look at just one part of a turbine... © john droz, jr.
  41. 41. Many Wind Turbines use 2000± Pounds of Rare Earth Elements per rated MW. So what? © john droz, jr.
  42. 42. The processing of Rare Earth Elements involves dozens of steps, of caustic chemical baths, or blast furnace separations. Each of these results in a waste stream of severely polluted air, water, and residue. © john droz, jr.
  43. 43. Read for Yourself... © john droz, jr.
  44. 44. The processing of the Rare Earth Elements, for just one 300 MW wind project... 1) destroys 60,000± square meters of vegetation, 2) generates 18,000,000± cubic meters of highly toxic air pollution, 3) pollutes 86,000,000± gallons of wastewater (making it poisonous), 4) produces 1,800,000,000± pounds of contaminated tailing sands, & 5) results in 300,000± pounds of radioactive waste. © john droz, jr.
  45. 45. Yes, that’s right: processing the REEs used by just one 300 MW wind project’s turbines result in 300,000± pounds of radioactive waste! © john droz, jr.
  46. 46. Remember, the REE environmental impact is just ONE component of these turbines. There are other adverse environmental consequences as well. © john droz, jr.
  47. 47. LIKE THIS © john droz, jr.
  48. 48. So, is Wind Energy Really Green? An objective look says NO! © john droz, jr.
  49. 49. After carefully looking into just this ONE turbine component, reconsider the following marketing claims: 1 - Is Wind Energy really “renewable”? 2 - Is Wind Energy really “sustainable”? 3 - Does Wind Energy really give us energy “independence”? The inescapable answer is NO! © john droz, jr.
  50. 50. As time goes on, more environmentalists are speaking out — “Industrial wind projects don’t work. They produce a trickle of electricity at a vast cost to the consumer. They desecrate the landscape and make people’s lives a misery. And they don’t even cut carbon emissions. They are literally a waste of space…” Struan Stevenson: Chairman of the European Parliament’s Climate Change, Biodiversity & Sustainable Development Intergroup (11/11/11) © john droz, jr.
  51. 51. Sound Scientific Solutions Energy Part 3: Economics Explained
  52. 52. What Wind Energy Is Really All About © john droz, jr.
  53. 53. © john droz, jr.
  54. 54. © john droz, jr.
  55. 55. E-V-E-R-Y-T-H-I-N-G about the economics here is problematic!
  56. 56. Does wind energy provide economical electricity ? NO, not compared to conventional sources. Look at the real economics from three perspectives — a) Total Costs = higher than conventional sources. b) Ratepayer Costs = higher than conventional sources. c) Taxpayer Subsidies = higher than all conventional sources, combined! © john droz, jr.
  57. 57. Financial Comparison “a” Total Costs (Capital + Operation + Fuel + Transmission)
  58. 58. Power Sources Total Costs Capital Operation Fuel Transmission {Wind costs here do NOT take into account any costs: for backup generation, OR for extra transmission lines needed, OR for other ancillary requirements, OR for decommissioning.} Nuclear Geothermal Gas w CCS Coal w CSS Onshore Wind Offshore Wind EIA — Estimated Levelized Cost of New Generation Resources, 2016 © john droz, jr.
  59. 59. Financial Comparison “b” Utility Ratepayer Costs
  60. 60. © john droz, jr.
  61. 61. More real world evidence from NC utility experts, about the real cost of wind energy: onshore = 2-3 times more offshore = 4-5 times more © john droz, jr.
  62. 62. What’s the Correlation with Higher Wind Energy Usage and Residential Electricity Rates? 40 35 Denmark Bad Renewables % ¢/KWH (2007 Data) 30 Germany 25 20 Spain 15 US 10 Canada 5 © john droz, jr.
  63. 63. Now that you know that, is this an honest claim? © john droz, jr.
  64. 64. Financial Comparison “c” Taxpayer Costs
  65. 65. $4,981 M Annual Federal TAXPAYER Subsidies of Electrical Energy Sources: Totals 2010 US Energy Information Administration Subsidy Report: July 2011 [Direct + Tax + R&D +Electricity Support] Note that the total 2010 subsidies for wind energy exceed the totals for all the other conventional sources COMBINED! $1,189 M $2,234 M $654 M $215 M $4,981 M Coal Nuclear Nat Gas Hydro Wind © john droz, jr.
  66. 66. Now that you know that, is this an honest claim? © john droz, jr.
  67. 67. But what about regional economics?
  68. 68. To begin with, all “enticements” are with your own money! Remember What Your Dad Said: There’s No Free Lunch! © john droz, jr.
  69. 69. © john droz, jr.
  70. 70. To ACCURATELY know regional economics, we need to get valid answers to four questions: 1) Exactly how much of the jobs and economic claims are guaranteed? 2) Specifically how much of the guaranteed jobs and economic benefits will go to local citizens? 3) What are the NET jobs and economic benefits to the region? 4) Are there other resulting benefits or liabilities from such a project? © john droz, jr.
  71. 71. Question #1: Exactly how much of the developer’s job and economic claims are guaranteed? Answer: None.
  72. 72. Question #2: Specifically how much of the guaranteed jobs and economic benefits will go to local citizens? Answer: We have no idea. Most initial jobs will be to imported specialists.
  73. 73. Question #3: What are the NET jobs and economic benefits to the region? Answer: There will be NET job and economic losses. See next slides!
  74. 74. Here is a comprehensive study about how wind development affects Tourism... © john droz, jr.
  75. 75. Here are the study’s conclusions about how wind development affects Tourism... © john droz, jr.
  76. 76. One likely consequence is that a few of the farmers who have leases, will scale back their operation, or stop farming entirely. Here is one of many examples where this is exactly what happened. © john droz, jr.
  77. 77. Here is a scientific study about local weather impact from wind development... © john droz, jr.
  78. 78. Here is a government study about one financial impact from wind development... © john droz, jr.
  79. 79. Here are their conclusions of the crop loss due to killed bats to Pamlico County... © john droz, jr.
  80. 80. What are the Economic Conclusions for Offshore? © john droz, jr.
  81. 81. The Jobs Conclusions of Independent Experts: © john droz, jr.
  82. 82. The Economics Conclusions of Independent Experts: © john droz, jr.
  83. 83. A Different Independent Study Concludes the Same: © john droz, jr.
  84. 84. Is There Independent Correlation of These Conclusions? © john droz, jr.
  85. 85. Typical Wind Development Impact: Net Annual Job Loss Net Annual Economic Loss
  86. 86. Question #4: Are there other benefits or liabilities resulting from such a project? Answer: Yes, there are other substantial liabilities. For example, the many millions of dollars being given to this developer (e.g. through tax credits): a) increase our country’s indebtedness, and b) is money borrowed from China. Are either of these in our interest to support? © john droz, jr.
  87. 87. Net Financial Assessment © john droz, jr.
  88. 88. This is the point where we are now. Making the wrong choice will cost us for 20+ years. © john droz, jr.
  89. 89. The United States can be a National Leader in: 1) Eighteenth century ideas like horse transportation and wind energy (buggy whip manufacturing, blacksmith and windmill jobs) OR 2) State-of-the art, Scientifically Sound energy solutions (like geothermal energy or Small Modular Reactors) © john droz, jr.
  90. 90. The Wind Project Developer has ONE Objective: to squeeze the County & the Leaseholders for EVERYTHING they can get out of them.
  91. 91. The Wind Project Developer has ONE Objective: to squeeze the County & the Leaseholders for EVERYTHING they can get out of them.
  92. 92. We can chose the path thru the dark green forest. After all, the marketeers assured us that it would be an easy shortcut to get some “found money.” © john droz, jr.
  93. 93. The salesmen promised us that the trip will be pleasant and successful. Any animals along the way will be our friend! © john droz, jr.
  94. 94. Of course there were no guarantees. Once we go down this path, we are on our own. © john droz, jr.
  95. 95. Don’t Take The Bait © john droz, jr.
  96. 96. Don’t Take The Bait © john droz, jr.
  97. 97. For more info see: WindPowerFacts.Info Thank You! © john droz, jr.
  98. 98. Some References (for main data, quotes, etc.) — Slide 1: Philip Epp painting - Wild Horses (www.philepp.com/Paintings/paintings.html) Slide 6: Winsten Churchill quote (www.brainyquote.com/quotes/authors/w/winston_churchill.html) Slide 15: Pinnochio (savevestas.wordpress.com/2009/10/25/new-vestas-campaign-postcard-take-and-distribute/ed_miliband-sw-1-2/) Slide 20: Critical Thinking - several sources, e.g. (www.criticalthinking.org/about/mission.cfm) Slide 21: Carl Sagan quotes (www.brainyquote.com/quotes/authors/c/carl_sagan.html) Slide 26: Scientific Methodology - several sources, e.g. (teacher.pas.rochester.edu/phy_labs/appendixe/appendixe.html) Slide 41: Rare Earth elements in a Turbine (www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page72102?oid=83419&sn=Detail) Slide 42: China Environmental Issues with REEs (tinyurl.com/4u2xjst) Slide 44: Impacts of REEs - several sources, e.g. (fmso.leavenworth.army.mil/documents/rareearth.pdf) Slide 44: Impacts of REEs - several sources, e.g. (www.vetiver.org/ICV4pdfs/BA09.pdf) Slide 44: Impacts of REEs - several sources, e.g. (www.sdcleanwateralliance.org/RareEarthElements.html) Slide 46: Wind Turbine Fire (epaw.org/multimedia.php?lang=en&article=a7) Slide 47: Wind Turbine with Birds (sfist.com/2010/12/07/altamont_pass_to_get_less-deadly_wi.php) Slide 50: Struan speech (www.struanstevenson.com/media/speech/national_follies/) Slide 58: Power Sources Total Cost (www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/electricity_generation.html) Slide 62: IEA 2007 World Energy Statistics (tinyurl.com/bwx9pl) + data sent from IEA Slide 65: Federal Subsidies - EIA 2010 Report (www.eia.gov/analysis/requests/subsidy/) Slide 65: State Wind Energy Subsidies, etc. (www.energypulse.net/centers/article/article_display.cfm?a_id=1837) Slide 69: “He Has Your Wallet” (www.floppingaces.net/wp-content/uploads/he-has-your-wallet.jpg) Slides 74 & 75: Scottish Tourism Study (scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2008/03/07113554/0) Slide 77: Turbine Effects on Local Meteorology (www.atmos.illinois.edu/~sbroy/publ/jweia2011.pdf) Slides 78 & 79: Agricultural Effects of Turbine Bat Deaths (www.fort.usgs.gov/Products/Publications/23069a/23069a.pdf) Slides 80, 81 & 82: Assessment 1 of NJ Offshore Wind project (www.state.nj.us/rpa/docs/FACWReport%20v14%20(PUBLIC%20VERSION).pdf) Slides 83: Assessment 2 of NJ Offshore Wind project (www.njspotlight.com/assets/12/0228/1839) Slide 86: Statue of Liberty w Sickle (nocureforthat.wordpress.com/2010/06/02/hedges-this-country-needs-a-few-good-communists/) Slide 92: Little Red Riding Hood drawing (osw.deviantart.com/art/Little-Red-Riding-Hood-81798342) Slide 93 & 94: Little Red Riding Hood photos (www.shlominissim.com/inner_gallery.asp?id=271#UploadedFiles/Galleries/5_271_main.jpg) Other unattributed observations are the result of private research. © john droz, jr.
  99. 99. John Droz, jr. is a physicist and has been an environmental activist for over 25 years. He has been a leading individual on four NY statewide issues (electrical energy, water extraction, water quality, and property taxes) and is currently working on NC issues (like electrical energy and sea level rise). He received undergraduate degrees in physics and mathematics from Boston College, and a graduate degree in physics from Syracuse University. He has been a participating member of several environmental organizations (like the Adirondack Council, Adirondack Wild, Protect, and Sierra Club). [The science oriented views expressed in this presentation may not necessarily reflect the political agenda of these organizations.] Due to his love of nature, he has a Summer lakefront cottage in the Adirondacks (NY). These areas of interest and expertise (science & environmentalism) have merged with his focus on energy matters, especially wind energy. John’s basic position is that we should be taking aggressive measures to solve our energy and pollution issues, but should not be wasting time and money on illusionary solutions — which are primarily promoted by those with vested financial interests in them. This slide presentation is copyrighted and is for personal use only. Any reproduction, quoting, referencing, or other use of this material is prohibited without the author’s express written consent. Such consent will usually be granted for the purpose of putting on an educational community presentation. All information is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed. If errors are noted, please email John the scientific evidence of same and a correction will be made. For questions, comments or permission to use any material in this presentation, please email John at: aaprjohn@northnet.org © john droz, jr.

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