Wind Augmenting

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A short summary about how much augmenting does wind energy need. PL

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Wind Augmenting

  1. 1. How Much AugmentingDoes Wind Energy Require? © john droz, jr.
  2. 2. MW Monday Tuesday WednesdayThis is a Simplified Electricity Demand graph (which must be exactly matched by the Supply graph).© john droz, jr.
  3. 3. MW Wind GasHydroNuclear Coal Monday Tuesday Wednesday This shows each source supplying us with 20% of our total electricity needed. © john droz, jr.
  4. 4. MW Wind GasHydroNuclear Coal Monday Tuesday Wednesday Wind, though, is unlike any of the others, and in reality is like this. © john droz, jr.
  5. 5. MW Wind GasHydroNuclear Coal Monday Tuesday WednesdaySo something has to augment those variations, and typically it’s additional gas. © john droz, jr.
  6. 6. MW Wind GasHydroNuclear Coal Monday Tuesday Wednesday To properly balance wind, the extra gas supply must approximately equal the wind supply. © john droz, jr.
  7. 7. This is a Simplified Electrical Supply graph (which must exactly match the Demand graph). 3000MW of Electricity 2000 1000 0 Monday Tuesday Wednesday © john droz, jr.
  8. 8. The Supply graph actually has four elements. Let’s briefly look at each one. 3000 Demand Safety Margin Peak Load Load FollowingMW of Electricity 2000 Base Load 1000 0 Monday Tuesday Wednesday © john droz, jr.
  9. 9. This is the “Base Load” Supply part. 3000MW of Electricity 2000 Base Load 1000 Can Wind Energy Supply “Base Load” Power? NO. 0 Monday Tuesday Wednesday Base Load: what is needed 24/7 (about 50% of the total) [This is a predictable underlying demand that is quite consistent throughout the year.] — Base Load Supply is typically Nuclear or Coal facilities. — © john droz, jr.
  10. 10. This is Base Load, with “Load Following” Supply added. 3000 Load Following MW of Electricity 2000 Base Load 1000 Can Wind Energy Supply “Load Following” Power? NO. 0 Monday Tuesday Wednesday Load Following: normal usage daily changes[These are fairly predictable 24 hour cyclic changes, with higher demand before & after work.] — Load Following Supply is typically Gas or Hydro facilities. — © john droz, jr.
  11. 11. This is Base Load + Load Following, with “Peak Load” Supply added. 3000 Peak Load Load FollowingMW of Electricity 2000 Base Load 1000 Can Wind Energy Supply “Peak Load” Power? NO. 0 Monday Tuesday Wednesday Peak Load: unusual surges [These may be due to a heat wave where a lot of air conditioners are used at 5 PM.] — Peak Load Supply is typically Gas facilities. — © john droz, jr.
  12. 12. This is Base Load + Load Following + Peak Load, with 15% Demand Safety Margin added. 3000 Demand Safety Margin Peak Load Load Following MW of Electricity 2000 Base Load 1000 0 Monday Tuesday Wednesday The supply sources that are providing the Demand Safety Margin (which can also be called backup supply). Their primary reason for existence is to be able to instantaneously provide for any additional demand. © john droz, jr.
  13. 13. This is Base Load + Load Following + Peak Load + Backup, with Wind Energy added. 3000 Wind Energy Demand Safety Margin Peak Load Load Following MW of Electricity 2000 Base Load 1000 0 Monday Tuesday Wednesday For lower amounts of wind penetration (<5%) it may appear like no additional wind backup is needed. However, wind is actually stealing from the Demand Safety Margin. This puts sections of the Grid at greater risk for brownouts and blackouts.The only proper solution is to match wind supply with an additional augmenting source.droz, jr. © john
  14. 14. Conclusions:1 - For any amount of wind penetration, there needs to be a quick responding source(usually gas) assigned to augment its variability.2 - The amount of this augmenting source is typically 90+% of the wind’s faceplate value.The actual percentage can be calculated by subtracting the true wind facility capacity valuefrom 100%.3 - For low penetrations (<5%), in some cases a new augmenting source is not built, andwind variations are absorbed by the Demand Safety Margin. This is poor grid policy as itincreases safety risks for all users. It may be done for economical reasons (not having themoney to build the augmenting source), or for political reasons (so as not to show some ofthe extra grid costs necessitated by wind energy).4 - In ALL cases the levelized cost of wind should be calculated with it being paired with afull time augmenting supply. This also applies to other comparisons with conventionalsources, like calculating the amount of CO2 saved.
  15. 15. For more information on wind energy, see EnergyPresentation.Info
  16. 16. On JobsThe US has lost most of its jobs to other countries primarily due to economics: low cost labor.Our businesses have one major economic benefit left to counter more job loss: low cost electricity. Why would we agree to an RPS and voluntarily give this up???
  17. 17. More On JobsThere is nothing — no program, no hobby, no vice, no crime — that does not“create jobs.” For example, tsunamis, computer viruses and shootingconvenience store clerks all “create jobs.” So since that claim applies to all it is an argument in favor of none.Instead of providing evidence of the merits of an enterprise, a jobs claim isa de facto admission that one has a specious case.
  18. 18. Even More On JobsWe could eliminate all forms of welfare and food stamps, and offer theunemployed full-time minimum wage jobs pedaling stationary bicycleshooked up to electric generators.This would solve our: 1) energy independence, 2) energy diversity, 3) fossilfuel reduction, 4) poverty, 5) obesity, and 6) budget problems all at once!
  19. 19. Peer Review1 - "Peer Review" is applicable in one primary situation: when a scientist is proposing a new hypothesis.2 - "Peer Review" is simply the opinions of selected other qualified scientists about a proposed hypothesis.3 - Even if all these selected other scientists agree with the hypothesis, that does not constitute scientific proof that the hypothesis is accurate.
  20. 20. Peer Review"The mistake, of course, is to think that peer review is any more than acrude means of discovering the acceptability — not the validity — of a newfinding. Editors and scientists alike insist on the pivotal importance of peerreview. We portray peer review to the public as a quasi-sacred process thathelps to make science our most objective truth teller.But we know that the system of peer review is biased, unjust, incomplete,unaccountable, easily fixed, often insulting, usually ignorant, occasionallyfoolish, and frequently wrong." — Richard Horton, editor of the British medical journal The Lancet
  21. 21. Scientific Process is an assessment that is:1) Comprehensive, 2) Independent, 3) Transparent, 4) Empirical Technical, Objective Real World Economic & All Data Available Environmental
  22. 22. Sound Scientific Solutions is the Umbrella position that covers ALL important concerns:TECHNICAL ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENTAL(e.g. reliability, (e.g. taxpayer cost, (e.g. CO2 savings,dispatchability, ratepayer costs, noise, flicker, transmission, agricultural impact, birds & bats, other Grid property values, other health effects, limitations) net jobs, etc.) raw material extraction and processing, etc.)

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