1. Predicting Massmovement Processes induced in Periglazial Areas
-
Study from central Switzeland
D. Tobler, P. Mani, N. Hählen
Foro International Glaciares, Huaraz
July 1th – 4th, 2013

2. 1. Introduction
2. Concept
3. Methods
4. Results
5. Conclusions
Content

3. Guttannen, Central
Switzerland - Bernese
Oberland
1. Introduction

4. 1. Introduction

5. 1. Introduction

6. 1. Introduction - Events

7. 1. Introduction - Events

8. H.R. Keusen, Geotest AG
October 2011

9. H.R. Keusen, Geotest AG
October 2011

10. H.R. Keusen, Geotest AG
October 2011

11. H.R. Keusen, Geotest AG velocity: ~ 15 m/s
October 2011

12. H.R. Keusen, Geotest AG
October 2011

13. H.R. Keusen, Geotest AG
October 2011

14. H.R. Keusen, Geotest AG
October 2011

15. H.R. Keusen, Geotest AG
October 2011

16. H.R. Keusen, Geotest AG
October 2011

17. H.R. Keusen, Geotest AG
October 2011

18. H.R. Keusen, Geotest AG
October 2011

19. H.R. Keusen, Geotest AG
October 2011

20. H.R. Keusen, Geotest AG
October 2011

21. H.R. Keusen, Geotest AG
October 2011

22. 2. Concept – Process Chain

23. 2. Concept – Process Chain

24. 2. Concept – Process Chain
Hählen (2012)

25. Rockfall
Ritzlihorn
Debris-Fan
Precipitation Temperature
Melting Permafrost
Aare River
Snow - Avalanches
2. Concept – Process Chain

26. 2. Concept – Process Chain

27. 3. Methods – Climate
Linsbauer et al. (in prep)
ΔT[°C]
+ 2.9 °C (2060)
+ 1.7 °C (2028)
Temperatur
Grimsel Hospiz
1980-
2009
2035 2060 2060
(M3)
JJA 9.6 +1.6 +2.9 +4.2
SON 3.7 +1.0 +2.0 +3.0
# days T > 15 °C 5 14 27 34
Periode T > 15°C 2 5 6 10
CH2011 (2011)

28. 3. Methods – Glacier Retreat
16.11.2012
2013
2035
retreat
2060
retreat

29. Szenario 2060
3. Methods – Glacier Retreat
Szenario 2060Szenario 2060
Paul and Linsbauer (2012)

30. 3. Methods – Permafrost
Böckli (2012)
Nötzli et al. (2012)
Time
RelativeRate/Amount
Erosion Rate Amount of Sediment

31. 3. Methods – Permafrost

32. 3. Methods – Process Models
PROCESS MODELS
SLIDISP+
Liener (2000)
Riner (2009)
Tobler et al. (2011)
ROFMOD 3D
Tobler and Pfeifer (2011)
Scheuner and McArdell (2007)
RAMMS
Debris Flow

33. 4. Results - Rockfall
Deposition
volume
[m3]

34. 4. Results - Landslides

35. 4. Results – Debris Flow
Rotlaui Channel

36. 4. Results – Debris Flow
Spreitgraben

37. - Where are the critical sections along
the mountain pass road?
- Rough estimation of the amount of
bedload depostion possible ?
- Definition of possible protection
measures ?
5. Conclusions / Outlook

38. 5. Conclusions / Outlook
+ 150’000 m3
+ 1.5 mio m3
+ 2.0 mio m3

39. Key to Success
- Profound knowledge of ongoing processes and process chains
- Courage to break down complicated systems to basic steps
- Knowing existing uncertainties
5. Conclusions / Outlook

40. 5. Conclusions / Outlook

41. Thank You