EURAS-CLIMPACT
Impact of Climate Change and Related Glacier Hazards and
Mitigation Strategies in the European Alps, Swedis...
• Objectives
• Area of Investigation & Project Data
• Climatological Results
• Glacio-Geological Results
• Stakeholders & ...
Objectives & Scope of Project
• Expeditions Tien Shan, Kirgistan: (2009) 2011, 2012
• Expeditions Central Alps, Austria: 2011, 2012
• Presentations at E...
Areas of Investigation
www.rockspace.se/climpact
DYURGEROV & MAIER, 2005
Objectives & Scope of Project
Objectives & Scope of Project
General temperature trend on the
territory of the Kirgistan for the
entire period of instrumental
observations 1885-2005
(...
Trend Air Temperature 1960-2000
Multiyear air temperature: + 0,015°C/year
Increase summer air temperature
Decrease winter air temperature
Precipitation ± ...
Outer ranges: mild, temperate climate, July MAT = 17°C; 700 mm prec.; ELA at 3600-3800 m
Inner ranges: more severe, contin...
Objectives & Scope of Project
The EURAS-CLIMPACT-project aimed at the empirical modelling of glacier
development from clim...
• GERM (Glacier Evolution Runoff Model)
is a glacio-hydrological model to
calculate runoff from highly glacierized
catchme...
Climatological Data
Additionally, to the station data above climate data from the Central Asia Database (CAD
http://www.sc...
Mass Balance & Runoff
Future Mass Balance
Future cumulative annual mass balance until 2050 for scenarios A1B, A2 and B1
Goldbergkees (GOK), Aust...
Tien Shan Glaciers
Golubine Glacier
Karabatkak
Glacier
Inylchek
Glacier
Location of Southern and Northern Inylchek Glacier...
2005
Lake Merzbacher 1 & 2
Lower Lake Merzbacher
Peremitschka
Frontal SIG: Stagnation 1900 - 2005
Position of Southern
Inylchek Glacier basically
has not changed during
the last 100 ye...
2005
Remote Sensing Analysis
Change Detection
- Oblique photos from historical
expeditions
- Aerial stereo photos (UdSSR)
- Topographic maps
- Keyhole ...
Change Detection
Upper Lake Merzbacher
Change Detection Upper Lake Merzbacher (1943-2011)
2 km
UTM 410000
Upper Lake Merzbacher
- Staircase terraces Inylchek Valley: Neotectonic vs. sedimentary origin
- Subsurface geology in Northern Inylchek Valley ...
• Geological setting
• Geomorphological inventory
• Youger fluvial terraces
• Older kame terraces
Inylchek-Expedition 2011
Glacio-Geological Results
Glacio-Geological Results
Glacio-Geological Results
Global Change Observatory (GCO)
GCO
670.00 – 2,500.000 Ωm
Inylchek-Expedition 2009
Subsurface Geology
Inylchek-Expedition 2009
Subsurface Geology
Inylchek-Expedition 2009
Subsurface Geology
6.00 – 30.000 Ωm
Inylchek-Expedition 2009
Subsurface Geology
Inylchek-Expedition 2009
Subsurface Geology
Inylchek-Expedition 2009
Subsurface Geology
Inylchek-Expedition 2009
- The ERT-measurements allowed for distinguishing subsurface hard rock, soft
rock, and ice, respe...
GCO
Inylchek-Expedition 2011
Glaci-lacustrine deposits between Lower and Upper Lake Merzbacher
Inylchek-Expedition 2011
HÄUSLER 2012Sedimentary microstructures at the base of a debris flow diamicton:
laminated silt & clay with disharmonic fol...
Inylchek-Expedition 2011
The sedimentological profile reveals
lake deposits overlain by basal
moraine (a-b).
This moraine ...
Inylchek-Expedition 2011
The sedimentological investigation of lake sediments of the Peremitschka (A-B) and
on top of the ...
Glacier Fluctuations
1) From process analysis of the Southern Inylchek Glacier (SIG) we conclude:
- Positive mass balance ...
Glacio-Geological Results: Austria
Mapping the geology of moraines and mass movements, and dating geologic events by cosmo...
Glacio-Geological Results: Austria
Glacio-Geological Results: Austria
Glacio-Geological Results: Austria
Stakeholders & Mitigation Strategies
Two weeks before our workshop an outburst of glacier lake Tez Tor in Ala Archa National
Park south of Bishkek occurred. Th...
Askar Kutanov (CAREN)
Bolot Moldobekov (CAIAG)
Michal Černý (Geomin)
Stefan Reisenhofer (ZAMG)
Stefan Reisenhofer & Anton Neureiter
Martin Hölzle (Fribourg)
Kanayim Teshebaeva (CAIAG)
Diethard Leber (UNIVIE)
Rahima Adieva (Bishkek)
Helicopter Excursion
Field Work
HÄUSLER & LEBER (University of Vienna):
Bishkek-Workshop 2012: Manual for field mapping of geohazards
Manual for geohazard...
HÄUSLER & LEBER (University of Vienna):
Bishkek-Workshop 2012: Manual for field mapping of geohazards
Manual for geohazard...
HÄUSLER & LEBER (University of Vienna):
Bishkek-Workshop 2012: Manual for field mapping of geohazards
Manual for geohazard...
Glacio-Geological Results: Sweden
Mass balance diagram of Storglaciären
Glacio-Geological Results: Sweden
Stakeholder
Geoforschungszentrum Potsdam (Dr. Jörn Lauterjung)
Geomin, Ilhava, Czech Republic (Dr. Michal Cerny)
Kyrgyz Na...
New Paper on Gottfried Merzbacher
20.3.1907
Résumé of EURAS-CLIMPACT
Impact of climate change and related glacier hazards and mitigation
strategies in the European Al...
Stakeholder
Austrian Ministry of Science & Research
(37.590/0001-II/4/2010)
Acknowledgements
We thank you for your attention!
EURAS-CLIMPACT
Impact of Climate Change and Related Glacier Hazards and Mitigation
Strate...
EURAS-CLIMPACT- Impact of climate change and related glacier hazards and mitigation strategies in the European Alps, Swedi...
EURAS-CLIMPACT- Impact of climate change and related glacier hazards and mitigation strategies in the European Alps, Swedi...
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EURAS-CLIMPACT- Impact of climate change and related glacier hazards and mitigation strategies in the European Alps, Swedish Lapland and the Tien Shan Mountains, Central Asia

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Presentació per part de Hermann Haeusler (Departament de Geociències Ambientals, Universitat de Viena, Àustria) en el marc de l’acte de clausura del projecte europeu CIRCLE 2 MOUNTain co-organitzat per l'Oficina Catalana del Canvi Climàtic durant els dies 26 i 27 de setembre de 2013.

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EURAS-CLIMPACT- Impact of climate change and related glacier hazards and mitigation strategies in the European Alps, Swedish Lapland and the Tien Shan Mountains, Central Asia

  1. 1. EURAS-CLIMPACT Impact of Climate Change and Related Glacier Hazards and Mitigation Strategies in the European Alps, Swedish Lapland and the Tien Shan Mountains, Central Asia *Hermann Häusler (hermann.haeusler@univie.ac.at), Diethard Leber, Alexander Kopecny, Matthias Bichler & Martin Reindl **Wolfgang Schöner, Stefan Reisenhofer & Anton Neureiter ***Gerhard Bax *Department of Environmental Geosciences, Faculty of Earth Sciences, Geography & Astronomy University of Vienna, Austria **Central Agency of Meteorology and Geodynamics (Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik, ZAMG), Vienna, Austria ***Blekinge Institute of Technology, Karlshamn, Sweden Barcelona, Thursday 26 of September, 2013 09.30 – 10.15
  2. 2. • Objectives • Area of Investigation & Project Data • Climatological Results • Glacio-Geological Results • Stakeholders & Mitigation Strategies • Honouring Gottfried Merzbacher • Résumé Content
  3. 3. Objectives & Scope of Project
  4. 4. • Expeditions Tien Shan, Kirgistan: (2009) 2011, 2012 • Expeditions Central Alps, Austria: 2011, 2012 • Presentations at EGU, Vienna: 2011, 2012, 2013 • Presentations at CIRCLE 2: 2011-Chambery, 2012-Innsbruck, 2013-Barcelona • Bishkek Workshop: 13-17.8.2012 • Presentations at Paro/Bhutan 6.12.2012; Almaty, Kazachstan 13.12.2012; Austrian Geological Society, Vienna, 24.4.2013; Institute of Geography, University of Vienna, 28.5.2013 Time Table (2011-2013)
  5. 5. Areas of Investigation www.rockspace.se/climpact
  6. 6. DYURGEROV & MAIER, 2005 Objectives & Scope of Project
  7. 7. Objectives & Scope of Project
  8. 8. General temperature trend on the territory of the Kirgistan for the entire period of instrumental observations 1885-2005 (centigrade; Kuzmichenok, 2003; Davletkeldiev and Takenov, 2009). 39 meteorological stations 1972 Objectives & Scope of Project
  9. 9. Trend Air Temperature 1960-2000
  10. 10. Multiyear air temperature: + 0,015°C/year Increase summer air temperature Decrease winter air temperature Precipitation ± same at all altitudes (decrease at higher altitudes) Trend Air Temperature 1960-2000
  11. 11. Outer ranges: mild, temperate climate, July MAT = 17°C; 700 mm prec.; ELA at 3600-3800 m Inner ranges: more severe, continental climate. West Terskey Ala Tau: July MAT = 7-8°C; ELA at 4000 m Inner ranges: Khokshaal Tau: ELA at 4400-4600 m Glacier Catalogue UdSSR (1968-1982)
  12. 12. Objectives & Scope of Project The EURAS-CLIMPACT-project aimed at the empirical modelling of glacier development from climate data for high alpine glaciers during the last fifty years. The project linked climate modelling (reanalysis data & statistical downscaling) with glacier modelling using hydrometeorological and remote sensing data (time series analysis) & DEM data (ERDAS & ARC/GIS). The study presents the combination of long-term reanalysis data (National Centre for Environmental Prediction – NCEP) and future scenario data (European Centre Hamburg Model - ECHAM5) to drive a spatial glacio-hydrological mass balance model (GERM – glacier evolution runoff model) in order to assess the impacts of future climate change on glaciers in Austria and Kirgistan. The evaluation and downscaling of global climate models in Central Asia contributes to a better understanding of the potential of these models to describe present climate and future climate under IPCC scenarios.
  13. 13. • GERM (Glacier Evolution Runoff Model) is a glacio-hydrological model to calculate runoff from highly glacierized catchments. • The climatic input data are daily temperature and daily precipitation. • 3D glacier surface geometry is based on DEM. • GERM is run on a 25 m grid in daily time-steps. The system model includes components for: Glacier surface mass balance (accumulation and ablation) Evaporation Runoff routing Changes in glacier surface topography and glacier retreat Glacier Modelling
  14. 14. Climatological Data Additionally, to the station data above climate data from the Central Asia Database (CAD http://www.sci.uidaho.edu/cae/data/) was used for trend analysis.
  15. 15. Mass Balance & Runoff
  16. 16. Future Mass Balance Future cumulative annual mass balance until 2050 for scenarios A1B, A2 and B1 Goldbergkees (GOK), Austria Golubina (GOL), Kirgistan
  17. 17. Tien Shan Glaciers Golubine Glacier Karabatkak Glacier Inylchek Glacier Location of Southern and Northern Inylchek Glacier in the east of the central Tien Shan (base map courtesy of Kuzmichenok, 2002).
  18. 18. 2005 Lake Merzbacher 1 & 2
  19. 19. Lower Lake Merzbacher
  20. 20. Peremitschka
  21. 21. Frontal SIG: Stagnation 1900 - 2005 Position of Southern Inylchek Glacier basically has not changed during the last 100 years Yearly fluctuation of of bended Southern Inylchek Glacier is only possible due to flow of its front (ice- dam) when Lower Lake Merzbacher is filled 1903 2005
  22. 22. 2005 Remote Sensing Analysis
  23. 23. Change Detection - Oblique photos from historical expeditions - Aerial stereo photos (UdSSR) - Topographic maps - Keyhole satellite mission - SPOT satellite system - JERS-1 satellite (VNIR) - IRS-satellite - Landsat TM, ETM+, OLI/TIRS (8) - ASTER - Quickbird, Google Earth - Rapid Eye - DEM – Topo/SRTM - ESRI Imagery Basemap
  24. 24. Change Detection Upper Lake Merzbacher
  25. 25. Change Detection Upper Lake Merzbacher (1943-2011) 2 km UTM 410000 Upper Lake Merzbacher
  26. 26. - Staircase terraces Inylchek Valley: Neotectonic vs. sedimentary origin - Subsurface geology in Northern Inylchek Valley and at confluence (GCO) - Paleogeographic development of Northern Inylchek Valley since LGM - Recent surge cycle and paleo surge cycle of Northern Inylchek Glacier Inylchek-Expeditions 2009-2011 Landsat 7 ETM+ of the Inylchek Glacier acquired August 2006; pan-sharpened; bands 1, 4, 7; ground resolution; Häusler et al. (2011). GCO
  27. 27. • Geological setting • Geomorphological inventory • Youger fluvial terraces • Older kame terraces Inylchek-Expedition 2011
  28. 28. Glacio-Geological Results
  29. 29. Glacio-Geological Results
  30. 30. Glacio-Geological Results
  31. 31. Global Change Observatory (GCO) GCO
  32. 32. 670.00 – 2,500.000 Ωm Inylchek-Expedition 2009 Subsurface Geology
  33. 33. Inylchek-Expedition 2009 Subsurface Geology
  34. 34. Inylchek-Expedition 2009 Subsurface Geology
  35. 35. 6.00 – 30.000 Ωm Inylchek-Expedition 2009 Subsurface Geology
  36. 36. Inylchek-Expedition 2009 Subsurface Geology
  37. 37. Inylchek-Expedition 2009 Subsurface Geology
  38. 38. Inylchek-Expedition 2009 - The ERT-measurements allowed for distinguishing subsurface hard rock, soft rock, and ice, respectively dead ice. - In the Northern Inylchek Valley the ERT-profiles were interpreted as glacio- geological profiles resulting from retreating Northern Inylchek Glacier (Häusler et al., in preparation).
  39. 39. GCO Inylchek-Expedition 2011
  40. 40. Glaci-lacustrine deposits between Lower and Upper Lake Merzbacher Inylchek-Expedition 2011
  41. 41. HÄUSLER 2012Sedimentary microstructures at the base of a debris flow diamicton: laminated silt & clay with disharmonic folds. Inylchek-Expedition 2011
  42. 42. Inylchek-Expedition 2011 The sedimentological profile reveals lake deposits overlain by basal moraine (a-b). This moraine was deposited by a glacier, which piled up frontal moraines (in brown) bordering the Peremitschka. This glacier therefore advanced after a very big lake (deposits c-d) existed in the Northern Inylchek Valley (Häusler et al., in preparation).
  43. 43. Inylchek-Expedition 2011 The sedimentological investigation of lake sediments of the Peremitschka (A-B) and on top of the surged Northern Inylchek Glacier (C) allow for reconstruction of a big paleolake, existing before the Northern Inylchek Glacier piled up the moraine walls, separating the Peremitschka from Upper Lake Merzbacher (Häusler et al., in preparation). Paleolake with length of at minimum 10.000 m (Original distance A-C)
  44. 44. Glacier Fluctuations 1) From process analysis of the Southern Inylchek Glacier (SIG) we conclude: - Positive mass balance of Southern Inylchek Glacier (stable front since 1900) is caused by both ice flow from the accumulation at 5000-7000 m altitude and buoyancing of ice-dam and advance of bended glacier opposite GCO, as soon as Lower Lake Merzbacher is filled. - Regular advance of bended Southern Inylchek Glacier is depending on an external factor, namely the daming of Lower Lake Merzbacher during summer until the water is released through an englacial pipe system. 2) From process analysis of the Northern Inylchek Glacier (NIG) we conclude: - In recent times the Northern Inylchek Glacier underwent a surge cycle. Positive mass balance was also caused by both ice flow from the accumulation area, and interaction of glacier front with Upper Lake Merzbacher. Once the glacier front buoyanced, the friction at glacier base was drastically reduced, and the glacier rapidly advanced (surged). - We term this rapid advancing process as special type of glacier surge, namely the „Northern Inylchek“ type of glacier surge. The entire recent surge cycle lasted for at least 100 years. SIG NIG
  45. 45. Glacio-Geological Results: Austria Mapping the geology of moraines and mass movements, and dating geologic events by cosmogenic nuclides. (Mathias Bichler, Martin Reindl, Hermann Häusler, Jürgen Reitner, Susan Ivy-Ochs, 2011- 2013) Dynamics of a Younger-Dryas Glacier System in the Sonnblick Region (Austrian Central Alps) framed by Bølling-Allerød and Preboreal Landslides Durchgangwald Landslide
  46. 46. Glacio-Geological Results: Austria
  47. 47. Glacio-Geological Results: Austria
  48. 48. Glacio-Geological Results: Austria
  49. 49. Stakeholders & Mitigation Strategies
  50. 50. Two weeks before our workshop an outburst of glacier lake Tez Tor in Ala Archa National Park south of Bishkek occurred. The Kyrgyz Ministry of Emergency Situations informed the local population in time. Bishkek Workshop 13-17 August, 2012
  51. 51. Askar Kutanov (CAREN)
  52. 52. Bolot Moldobekov (CAIAG)
  53. 53. Michal Černý (Geomin)
  54. 54. Stefan Reisenhofer (ZAMG)
  55. 55. Stefan Reisenhofer & Anton Neureiter
  56. 56. Martin Hölzle (Fribourg)
  57. 57. Kanayim Teshebaeva (CAIAG)
  58. 58. Diethard Leber (UNIVIE)
  59. 59. Rahima Adieva (Bishkek)
  60. 60. Helicopter Excursion
  61. 61. Field Work
  62. 62. HÄUSLER & LEBER (University of Vienna): Bishkek-Workshop 2012: Manual for field mapping of geohazards Manual for geohazard-mapping
  63. 63. HÄUSLER & LEBER (University of Vienna): Bishkek-Workshop 2012: Manual for field mapping of geohazards Manual for geohazard-mapping
  64. 64. HÄUSLER & LEBER (University of Vienna): Bishkek-Workshop 2012: Manual for field mapping of geohazards Manual for geohazard-mapping
  65. 65. Glacio-Geological Results: Sweden
  66. 66. Mass balance diagram of Storglaciären Glacio-Geological Results: Sweden
  67. 67. Stakeholder Geoforschungszentrum Potsdam (Dr. Jörn Lauterjung) Geomin, Ilhava, Czech Republic (Dr. Michal Cerny) Kyrgyz National University, Bishkek (Dr. Murataly Duishinakunov) Kyrgyz-Russian-Slavic University, Bishkek (Department of Meteorology, Ecology & Environment Protection: Dr. Inna Brusenskaja) Ministry of Emergency Situations, Bishkek Ministry of Natural Resources, Bishkek (Dr. Sergei Erokhin) National Academy of Sciences, Bishkek (Central Asian Research and Education Network; Dr. Askar Kutanov) National Information Center, Bishkek (Almaz Bakenov) Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow (Department of Gegraphy, Dr. Bulat Mavlyudov) State Agency of Hydrometeorology, Bishkek (Itibaev Sagyndykovich)
  68. 68. New Paper on Gottfried Merzbacher 20.3.1907
  69. 69. Résumé of EURAS-CLIMPACT Impact of climate change and related glacier hazards and mitigation strategies in the European Alps and in the Tien Shan Mountains, Central Asia - Modelling the climate–glacier behaviour in the Austrian Alps and in the Tien Shan for 1950-2010 & calculation of future scenarios until 2050 based on climatological data, reanalysis data (NCEP), future scenario data (ECHAM5), remote sensing data & DEM data. - Detailed field investigations on glacier change in the Northern and Central Tien Shan (Kirgistan), and in the Central Austrian Alps. - Risk assessment of glacier lake outburst floods, of glacier surges, of mass movements following glacier retreat as well as neotectonic processes in the Northern and Central Tien Shan, and design of mitigation strategies in the Kyrgyz Republic. - Strong stakeholder involvement in the Kyrgyz Republic as well as in the Central Austrian Alps.
  70. 70. Stakeholder
  71. 71. Austrian Ministry of Science & Research (37.590/0001-II/4/2010) Acknowledgements
  72. 72. We thank you for your attention! EURAS-CLIMPACT Impact of Climate Change and Related Glacier Hazards and Mitigation Strategies in the European Alps, Swedish Lapland and the Tien Shan Mountains, Central Asia

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