ADAPT Water, Climate, Food and Environment under Climate Change MEKONG BASIN IN SOUTHEAST ASIAWorkshop 16-17 June 2003

1. ADAPT
Water, Climate, Food and Environment under
Climate Change
MEKONG BASIN IN SOUTHEAST ASIA
Workshop 16-17 June 2003
Jun-03

2. Contents
1. Main projected changes in climate in 2100
2. Effects of these changes on hydrology, environment, food
and industry
3. Brief description of adaptation strategies
4. Evaluation of strategies
5. SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, threats)
Jun-03

3. Mekong River
Sub-basins
Area
Sub-basin
Raster 0.5 degree (km2)
Mun 60,912
Chi 55,985
Chi-Mun 4,175
Lancang 225,562
Nam Ou 30,708
Nam Ngum 8,886
Mekong 1 156,509
Mekong 2 20,558
Sekong 28,601
Srepok 48,318
Mekong 3 27,701
Tonlesap 86,594
China Delta 40,492
Total 795,000
Myanmar Vietnam
Lao
PDR
ThailandMEKONG
BASIN
Cambodia
Climate station
with long records
Jun-03

4. 1. Main projected changes
in climate in 2100
Jun-03

5. Precipitation
Precipitation
(mm/month)
600
500
400
A2 300
200
100
0
1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051 2061 2071 2081 2091
Year
Precipitation
(mm/month)
600
500
400
B2 300
200
100
0
1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051 2061 2071 2081 2091
Year
Jun-03

6. Mean temperature
Mean temperature
(oC)
35
30
25
A2 20
15
1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051 2061 2071 2081 2091
Year
Mean temperature
(oC)
35
30
B2 25
20
15
1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051 2061 2071 2081 2091
Year
Jun-03

7. Max temperature
Maximum
temperature (oC)
45
40
A2 35
30
25
20
1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051 2061 2071 2081 2091
Year
Maximum
temperature (oC)
45
40
B2 35
30
25
20
1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051 2061 2071 2081 2091
Year
Jun-03

8. Minimum
Min temperature
temperature (oC)
30
25
20
A2 15
10
5
1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051 2061 2071 2081 2091
Year
Minimum
temperature (oC)
30
25
B2
20
15
10
5
1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051 2061 2071 2081 2091
Year
Jun-03

9. Radiation
Solar radiation
(w/m2)
300
250
A2
200
150
100
1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051 2061 2071 2081 2091
Year
Solar radiation
(w/m2)
300
250
B2 200
150
100
1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051 2061 2071 2081 2091
Year
Jun-03

10. Relative humidity
Relative humidity
95 (%)
90
85
80
75
A2 70
65
60
55
50
45
1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051 2061 2071 2081 2091
Year
Relative humidity
(%)
95
85
75
B2 65
55
45
1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051 2061 2071 2081 2091
Year
Jun-03

11. Wind speed (m/s)
Wind speed
4.0
3.5
3.0
A2 2.5
2.0
1.5
1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051 2061 2071 2081 2091
Year
Wind speed (m/s)
4.0
3.5
B2 3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051 2061 2071 2081 2091
Year
Jun-03

12. 2. Effects of CC on hydrology,
environment, food and industry
Jun-03

13. Mekong River
Sub-basins
Area
Sub-basin
Raster 0.5 degree (km2)
Mun 60,912
Chi 55,985
Chi-Mun 4,175
Lancang 225,562
Nam Ou 30,708
Nam Ngum 8,886
Mekong 1 156,509
Mekong 2 20,558
Sekong 28,601
Srepok 48,318
Mekong 3 27,701
Tonlesap 86,594
China Delta 40,492
Total 795,000
Myanmar Vietnam
Lao
PDR
ThailandMEKONG
BASIN
Cambodia
Climate station
with long records
Jun-03

14. Hydrology
(only CC)
Monthly Q - A2 - Mekong 3 Q (m3/s) Monthly Q - A2 - Delta
Q (m3/s)
70,000
70,000
60,000 60,000
50,000 50,000
40,000 40,000
30,000 30,000
20,000 20,000
10,000 10,000
0
0
1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051 2061 2071 2081 2091
1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051 2061 2071 2081 2091
Month Month
Q (m3/s) Monthly Q - B2 - Mekong 3 Q (m3/s) Monthly Q - B2 - Delta
70,000 70,000
60,000 60,000
50,000 50,000
40,000 40,000
30,000 30,000
20,000 20,000
10,000 10,000
0 0
1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051 2061 2071 2081 2091 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051 2061 2071 2081 2091
Month Month
Jun-03

15. Food demand: increased with population
Population Food demand
Sub-basin Growth rate Population (106) Food demand (mil t)
2000 (106) 2000 (mil t)
2000-25 2025-75 2025 2075 2025 2075
Scenario A2
China 9.6 2.9 1.2 0.9 12.9 20.2 3.9 6.1
Myanmar 0.9 0.3 1.1 0.8 1.2 1.8 0.4 0.5
Laos 4.9 1.5 2 1.5 8.0 16.9 2.4 5.1
Thailand 23.1 6.9 1.2 0.9 31.1 48.7 9.3 14.6
Cambodia 9.8 2.9 1.6 1.6 14.6 32.2 4.4 9.7
Vietnam 16.9 5.1 1.6 1.2 25.1 45.6 7.5 13.7
Total 65.2 19.6 93.0 165.5 27.9 49.7
Ratio to 2000 1.4 2.5 1.4 2.5
Scenario B2
China 9.6 2.9 0.9 0.6 12.0 16.2 3.6 4.9
Myanmar 0.9 0.3 0.8 0.5 1.1 1.4 0.3 0.4
Laos 4.9 1.5 1.5 1 7.1 11.7 2.1 3.5
Thailand 23.1 6.9 0.9 0.6 28.9 39.0 8.7 11.7
Cambodia 9.8 2.9 1.6 1.1 14.6 25.2 4.4 7.6
Vietnam 16.9 5.1 1.2 0.8 22.8 33.9 6.8 10.2
Total 65.2 19.6 86.5 127.4 25.9 38.2
Jun-03 to 2000
Ratio 1.3 2.0 1.3 2.0

16. Food: increase production
Rice yield (t/ha) from SWAP (Peter Droogers)
2010-39 2070-99
Yield Ratio to Ratio to
Scenario / Period 1961-90 Yield 61-90 Yield 61-90
Baseline A2 4.9 5.6 1.1 6.8 1.4
No irrigation A2 4.9 5.6 1.1 6.4 1.3
Short season 4.8 5.8 1.2 6.5 1.4
Baseline B2 5.0 4.9 1.0 5.4 1.1
No irrigation B2 5.0 4.9 1.0 5.1 1.0
Short season B2 5.0 5.0 1.0 5.4 1.1
Jun-03

17. Environment: higher flood, deeper salinity intrusion
Monthly discharge (m3/s) % change Daily discharge (m3/s) % change
Sub-basin Mekong 3 Delta Mekng 3 Delta Mekong 3 Delta Mekng 3 Delta
Max 61_90 40,995 45,681 54,829 51,161
Min 61_90 560 1,857
Ave 61_90 12,894 15,459
Scenario A2
Max 10_39 46,635 45,091 14 -1 57,387 50,294 5 -2
Min 10_39 574 1,726 2 -7
Ave 10_39 12,940 15,399 0 0
Max 70_99 57,659 54,269 41 19 74,055 66,439 35 30
Min 70_99 424 1,370 -24 -26
Ave 70_99 15,147 17,698 17 14
Scenario B2
Max 10_39 45,163 45,271 10 -1 54,016 50,188 -1 -2
Min 10_39 592 1,588 6 -15
Ave 10_39 12,973 15,397 1 0
Max 70_99 55,168 53,181 35 16 62,118 58,696 13 15
Min 70_99 466 1,311 -17 -29
Ave 70_99 13,672 16,140 6 4
Jun-03

18. Hydropower: higher potential
Monthly discharge (m3/s) % change Daily discharge (m3/s) % change
Sub-basin Mekong 3 Delta Mekng 3 Delta Mekong 3 Delta Mekng 3 Delta
Ave 61_90 12,894 15,459
Scenario A2
Ave 10_39 12,940 15,399 0 0
Ave 70_99 15,147 17,698 17 14
Scenario B2
Ave 10_39
12,973 15,397 1 0
Ave 70_99 13,672 16,140 6 4
Jun-03

19. 3. A brief description of adaptation
strategies
Jun-03

20. Scenarios
No. Scenario Objective Agriculture Reforestation
development
1 Baseline Current trend Developed for Current
without CC food
2 CC-NoAgri Effects of CC Current Current
3 CC-Agri Effects of CC & Developed for Current
agriculture food
4 CC-AgriFor Effects of CC, Developed for Reforestation of
agriculture & food all shrub land
forestry (17.7%) by
mixed forest
Jun-03

21. Scenario Baseline
No CC – with Agri. development
Monthly discharge Daily discharge
(m3/s) % change (m3/s) % change
Sub-basin Mekong 3 Delta Mekng 3 Delta Mekong 3 Delta Mekng 3 Delta
Max 61_90 40,995 45,681 54,829 51,161
Min 61_90 560 1,857
Ave 61_90 12,894 15,459
Max 10_39 41,214 46,047 1 1 55,111 51,559 1 1
Min 10_39 560 1,817 0 -2
Ave 10_39 12,787 15,257 -1 -1
Max 70_99 41,031 45,861 0 0 54,932 51,359 0 0
Min 70_99 560 1,811 0 -2
Ave 70_99 12,725 15,167 -1 -2
Jun-03

22. Scenario CC-NoAgri: higher flood, deeper salinity intrusion
Monthly discharge (m3/s) % change Daily discharge (m3/s) % change
Sub-basin Mekong 3 Delta Mekng 3 Delta Mekong 3 Delta Mekng 3 Delta
Max 61_90 40,995 45,681 54,829 51,161
Min 61_90 560 1,857
Ave 61_90 12,894 15,459
Scenario A2
Max 10_39 46,635 45,091 14 -1 57,387 50,294 5 -2
Min 10_39 574 1,726 2 -7
Ave 10_39 12,940 15,399 0 0
Max 70_99 57,659 54,269 41 19 74,055 66,439 35 30
Min 70_99 424 1,370 -24 -26
Ave 70_99 15,147 17,698 17 14
Scenario B2
Max 10_39 45,163 45,271 10 -1 54,016 50,188 -1 -2
Min 10_39 592 1,588 6 -15
Ave 10_39 12,973 15,397 1 0
Max 70_99 55,168 53,181 35 16 62,118 58,696 13 15
Min 70_99 466 1,311 -17 -29
Ave 70_99 13,672 16,140 6 4
Jun-03

23. Scenario CC-Agri: higher flood, deeper salinity intrusion
Monthly discharge (m3/s) % change Daily discharge (m3/s) % change
Sub-basin Mekong 3 Delta Mekng 3 Delta Mekong 3 Delta Mekng 3 Delta
Max 61_90 40,995 45,681 54,829 51,161
Min 61_90 560 1,857
Ave 61_90 12,894 15,459
Scenario A2
Max 10_39 46,646 45,446 14 -1 57,629 50,533 5 -1
Min 10_39 574 1,726 2 -7
Ave 10_39 12,843 15,230 0 -1
Max 70_99 57,723 54,497 41 19 74,178 66,648 35 30
Min 70_99 424 1,370 -24 -26
Ave 70_99 14,967 17,439 16 13
Scenario B2
Max 10_39 45,504 45,264 11 -1 53,979 50,165 -2 -2
Min 10_39 592 1,484 6 -20
Ave 10_39 12,884 15,245 0 -1
Max 70_99 55,106 53,138 34 16 62,070 58,655 13 15
Min 70_99 466 1,305 -17 -30
Ave 70_99 13,512 15,902 5 3
Jun-03

24. Scenario CC-AgriFor: less severe flood
Monthly discharge (m3/s) % change Daily discharge (m3/s) % change
Mekong Mekong
Sub-basin Mekong 3 Delta 3 Delta Mekong 3 Delta 3 Delta
Max 61_90 40,995 45,681 54,829 51,161
Min 61_90 560 1,857
Ave 61_90 12,894 15,459
Scenario A2
Max 10_39 42,376 43,190 3 -5 57,410 49,928 5 -2
Min 10_39 508 1,634 -9 -12
Ave 10_39 11,905 14,119 -8 -9
Max 70_99 53,370 52,770 30 16 71,874 64,245 31 26
Min 70_99 412 1,356 -26 -27
Ave 70_99 13,809 16,103 7 4
Scenario B2
Max 10_39 44,536 41,725 9 -9 53,068 48,221 -3 -6
Min 10_39 533 1,423 -5 -23
Ave 10_39 11,942 14,132 -7 -9
Max 70_99 54,967 52,735 34 15 66,124 59,099 21 16
Min 70_99 394 1,149 -30 -38
Jun-03

25. 3. Evaluation of strategies
Jun-03

26. A2 indicator analysis
Good A2 no
Stable adaptation A2 future adaptation
Decrease Environm.t Food Industry Mixed
very bad
Mea- Cur-
Indi Sured rent 2010 2070 2010 2070 2010 2070 2010 2070 2010 2070
cator Indicator in 2000 -39 -99 -39 -99 -39 -99 -39 -99 -39 -99
# affected people by flood number 18.6 27.5 53.6 26.6 52.2 27.5 53.6 26.6 52.2
Fisheries +++/---
ha upstream forest number
ha floodplain forest number
ha wetlands number
Envi
ron Lateral freedom number
Ment
Longitudinal freedom number
Fertilizer +++/---
BOD +++/---
NaCl (salinity intrusion) +++/--- -- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
PCB +++/---
tons of rice per year number 19.4 22.2 25.4 33.5 66.7
tons of maize per year number 2.1 2.4 2.8 3.4 6.8
tons of river fish
Food
caught per year number
average farm income US$ 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.7 3.4
variation in farm income US$ 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.4
# dams number
Indus
hydropower MW
try
Jun-03 # days unnavigable number

27. B2 indicator analysis
A2 no
Good adaptation A2 future adaptation
Stable
Decrease Environm.t Food Industry Mixed
very bad
Mea- Cur-
Indi Sured rent 2010 2070 2010 2070 2010 2070 2010 2070 2010 2070
cator Indicator in 2000 -39 -99 -39 -99 -39 -99 -39 -99 -39 -99
# affected people by flood number 18.6 25.9 40.8 24.7 39.1 25.9 40.8 24.7 39.1
Fisheries +++/---
ha upstream forest number
ha floodplain forest number
ha wetlands number
Envi
ron Lateral freedom number
ment
Longitudinal freedom number
Fertilizer +++/---
BOD +++/---
NaCl (salinity intrusion) +++/--- -- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
PCB +++/---
tons of rice per year number 19.4 19.0 19.8 25.2 38.7
tons of maize per year number 2.1 2.4 2.4 3.2 4.6
tons of river fish
Food
caught per year number
average farm income US$ 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.3 2.1
variation in farm income US$ 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
# dams number
Indus
hydropower MW
try
Jun-03 # days unnavigable number

28. 5. SWOT (strengths, weaknesses,
opportunities, threats)
Jun-03

29. Scenarios
Strengths Weaknesses Opportunities Threats
Large & long Improve water
basin: resource Unequal seasonal
Water is unequal development for distribution: high
plentiful distribution in food, flood in rainy
(total volume space & time, environment & season & low flow
& per capita) data problem industry in dry season
Six riparian
countries:
management Collaboration in Difficult in sharing
CC provides & data research & resources due to
more water problem development political problem
Jun-03

30. SLURP: Changes in water resources
Higher flood and more drought in A2, 2010-39
Need more analysis in extremes by sub-basin
Jun-03

31. THANK YOU FOR YOUR
ATTENTION
Jun-03