This document discusses Korean reunification and public opinion on the topic. It presents data from opinion polls showing South Koreans have become more supportive of reunification in recent years. It estimates the large economic gains that could result from reunification, with South Korea experiencing 11% annual GDP growth and North Korea seeing over 20 times income growth within 10 years. However, it also acknowledges the substantial costs of reunification, estimating $1.4-1.8 trillion would be required over 20 years. The document argues these costs could be minimized through separate economic systems initially and decreased military spending, while the economic benefits of reunification could be substantial in the long run.

1. Tongil Daebak
The Road to One Korea
Prosperity in Peace
Dr. Chan-min Shinn

2. Opinion Poll 2014. 2. 3. (Chosun-Ilbo)
Reunification yields benefits for me.
I get no benefit from reunification.
Gains from reunification will be greater.
Cost of Reunification will be greater.
Reunification will be good for the country.
Reunification is not necessarily desirable.
30.9%
66.3%
57.2%
39.4%
31.8%
48.6%

3. 2015, A Dramatic Change in Public Sentiment
아산정책연구원 ( 아시아경제, 조선일보, 2015. 1. 6. )
• Reasons for Reunification
- Homogeniety (one nation, separate families) 40.8%
- From economic perspectives (growth) 37.7%
• Reunification, necessary 82.6%
In their 20’s 39.2% ⇒ 71.8%
40’s 57% ⇒ 81.7%, Over 60’s 58.3% ⇒ 91.9%

4. Reunification Costs & Required Funds
1. Crisis Management Expenses, including food supplies,
clothing and medicine, the kind of supplies that will be
required immediately after reunification.
2. Systemic Unification Expenses, including costs
associated with politics, administration and the military,
education and culture, social infrastructure and so on.
3. Physical Capital Investment, required to gradually
reduce the income gap between the North and South.

5. Estimates for Required Funds
Data : Bank of Korea, Major Economic Indicators, December 2016
Year of Income
Adjustment
2026 ~
2035
2031 ~
2040
2036 ~
2045
Unit: US$Billion
(Based on 2015
Constant Price)
1,396
1,585
1,798
Rate Compared to
South Korean GDP
6.4%
6.4%
6.4%

6. Gains from Reunification(⇒“Daebak”)
대박 !
• At the point in time of Unification:
No More Expenses due to Division
• 10 year period after Reunification: (Daebak!)
(South Korea) 11% Economic Growth every year
In case of starting from US$32,000 per capita, a decade later GDP per capita
more than US$62,000 in Unified Korea
(North Korea) More than 20 times of income
as compared w/ that of the beginning year
• Thereafter: Continuing Economic Growth
⇒ Prosperity in Peace…

7. Korean Reunification, Daebak!
Gains from Reunification During the 10 year period
- South Korea
11% Economic Growth every year
1. Buy Korean Products Policy 5.6% of GDP
2. Trend Growth Rate 3%
3. Increase in Productivity from Released Military Duty 2.4%
(* Natural resources of NK, Open path through continent,
Economies of scale, …, etc. Not Included.)
__________________________________________________________________
11%
- Northern Region of Unified Korea
10 years after, More than 20 times increase in per capita GDP

8. Estimated GDP per capita of G7 countries
10 yrs after Korean Reunification
Country G7, GDP per capita
(parenthesis: Estimate in the
year of Korean Reunification)
Population(1,000)
<CIA Factbook
Estimates 2014 >
USA $73,139 ($60,000) 318,892
GB 56,199 (49,000) 63,743
Germany 52,452 (48,000) 80,997
France 49,955 (41,000) 66,259
Japan 47,457 (38,000) 127,103
China < 7,855(2015) > 1,355,693
Korea
unified
* $62,021 (32,000) 73,892

9. Minimizing Costs & Accommodating
1. Two Separate Economic Groups for the
10 year period after Political Reunification
2. Buy Korean Products Policy
3. Decrease in military expenditures for the
10 year period
4. Monetary Compensation to the Owners
of Land in the North
- Keeping State Ownership of Real Estate
5. Direct Financing
1) Borrowing from international institutions
& Issuing bonds in the int’l financial mkts.
2)Taxes

10. Conservatives & progressives
<Solution>
• Conservatives : National securities, management for keeping
division,
human rights (No unification at best)
+ Set the final goal at Reunification itself
• Progressives : Peaceful unification (emphasizing peace not
unification)
+ Set the final goal at Reunification itself
- Approaching to the sentiment of North Korean
people -
Two different groups emerges each other and both parties
can keep the same goal & become one entity toward
Reunification itself

11. Reunification, Daebak!
(What next?)
Reunification: Possible only by the
hands of the people in the North
- Along the stream of public sentiment,
Deprogramming
(Nonmilitary SOC,
Possible penetrations of microwaves,
Cooperation of scientific areas…)

12. Three Steps for Korean Reunification
1. SK, National Consensus centered around
“Tongil Daebak”
2. Residents in NK
- Understanding the gist of “Tongil Daebak”
⇒ Win the hearts and minds of NK residents
(SOC investment in the North
w/ seperating the economy from politics)
3. NK residents themselves choose the system
- Free Democracy & Market Economy -

13. Facts & Truths
in Various Issues
1. “Puh-joogi” 6. Absorption impossible
2. Reciprocity 7. Abrupt unification,
3. Nuclear Weapons “simply not the solution”
8. China & Super Powers
4. Peaceful Coexistence 9. Human Rights in NK
5. Anti-Communism 10. Refugees from the North
& National Securities 11. Trust processes