Serlie, A., Mol, S.T. (2014, October). What will personnel selection look like in 2030? Presentation at the 9th Dutch Flemish Meeting on Personnel Selection and Recruitment.

1. What will personnel
selection look like in 2030?
Towards a research agenda
Alec Serlie & Stefan Mol

2. Some upcoming personnel selection
challenges…
 Changing labour supply and demand and anticipated effects on base rate,
Selection ratio’s and utility of personnel selection
 Demographics and Educational level
 Aging population
 Labour mobility
 Robotization
 Changing nature of job analysis and potential for disaggregation of jobs
 Changing data sources available to personnel psychologists

3. 50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
110%
120%
DEMOGRAPHIC PRESSURE
2013 2040 2060 2080

4. Unemployment rates Europe 2013
27.5
26.2
17.6
17.0
16.1
14.3
13.3 13.0
12.4 12.1 12.0
11.0
10.5 10.3 10.3 9.9
8.9 8.5 8.3 8.2
7.7 7.6 7.2 7.0 6.7 6.5
5.9 5.5 5.4 5.0
4.5
3.5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30

5. Educational level: tertiary education
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2002 2013

7. Robotisation

8. Virtual Agents (psychologists)
8

10. Data Sources:
Social Media

11. Social Network Statistics

12. Personnel Selection Consequences in 2030
Employers Employees Researchers
What the same
What different
Selection Ratio
Validity

13. Labour Market Challenges for the coming Era
 Demographics
 Aging Population
 Educational Level
 Social Media
 Flex-security
 Robotisation
 Labour Mobility / Virtual Teams

14. Flex-security:
Self-employed workers / Travailleurs indépendants
Definition:
Self-employed workers are persons who are the sole owners, or joint owners, of the
unincorporated enterprises in which they work, excluding those unincorporated
enterprises that are classified as quasi-corporations.
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2004 2009 2013 average