Presentation by Alex Stimpson (Cedefop) on the occasion of the EESC LMO conference of 6 February 2012 in Roskilde, Denmark

1. From education to working life:
the labour market outcomes of VET
Session 3: How can VET ease the transition from
education to work, and meet labour market needs
Alex Stimpson, Cedefop
EESC Labour Market Observatory conference
6 February 2012
Roskilde, Denmark

2. The Labour Market Outcomes of VET 2
VET is key to meeting labour market needs
Labour demand by qualification (LF 15-64) in EU-27+
250
Millions
50% of all jobs will
require medium level
qualifications in 2020 200 High
23 % 28 %
qualification 31 %
150
Demand for more
highly qualified workers Medium
100 48 %
implies structural 49 % qualification 50 %
changes and a need to
diversify VET provision 50
at the higher level 29 % Low
23 %
19 %
0
qualification
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Source: Cedefop (IER estimates based on E3ME, EDMOD and BALMOD).
Notes: EU27+ refers to the 27 EU Member States plus Norway and Switzerland
06/02/2012 Alex Stimpson

3. The Labour Market Outcomes of VET 3
How many young VET graduates are there in the EU?
Most young adults (25-34 years old) with medium level
educational attainment have VET backgrounds (EU, 2009)
48% of all young people
had a medium level
qualification in 2009
And 72% of those
were in VET
Equivalent to over
23 million
25-34 year olds
Source: Cedefop calculations based on Eurostat, EULFS 2009 Ad Hoc Module.
06/02/2012 Alex Stimpson

4. The Labour Market Outcomes of VET 4
Large country differences reflect systems, choice and
attractiveness
VET system intensity and type (%, 25-34 year old graduates)
Source: Cedefop calculations based on Eurostat, EULFS 2009 Ad Hoc Module. Excludes countries where VET type was not reported.
06/02/2012 Alex Stimpson

5. The Labour Market Outcomes of VET 5
Typical pathways for young people in Europe
General upper- VET upper-secondary
secondary graduates graduates tend to go straight
tend to continue studying to the labour market
Pathways for 18-24 year olds with medium level education in EU27 in 2009 (ISCED 3 and 4)
Note: many young people may study and work at the same time but, following the ILO definition of employment, are primarily recorded as working above.
06/02/2012 Alex Stimpson

6. The Labour Market Outcomes of VET 6
Positive labour market outcomes for VET graduates
Young VET graduates are more likely to be engaged in the
labour market
At the medium level:
young VET graduates
are more likely to be
employed…
…and less likely to be
unemployed than young
adults from the general
stream
Source: Cedefop calculations based on Eurostat, EULFS 2009 Ad Hoc Module. Data: EU27, 2009, excludes current students.
06/02/2012 Alex Stimpson

7. The Labour Market Outcomes of VET 7
Employment premium to VET in most EU countries in 2009
Difference in employment rates for 25-34 year olds with VET and general
medium level education (% points)
Source: Cedefop calculations based on Eurostat, EULFS 2009 Ad Hoc Module. Excludes current students.
06/02/2012 Alex Stimpson

8. The Labour Market Outcomes of VET 8
Young VET graduates move slightly more quickly into jobs
Length of time between leaving formal education and
starting the first job (of over 3 months, 25-29 year olds)
Source: Cedefop calculations based on Eurostat, EULFS 2009 Ad Hoc Module. Data: EU27 excluding DE, 2009.
06/02/2012 Alex Stimpson

9. The Labour Market Outcomes of VET 9
Young VET graduates more likely to find a suitable job match
Duration of the first job (of over 3 months, 25-29 year olds)
Source: Cedefop calculations based on Eurostat, EULFS 2009 Ad Hoc Module. Data: EU27 excluding DE, 2009.
06/02/2012 Alex Stimpson

10. The Labour Market Outcomes of VET 10
Young general graduates more likely to spend prolonged
periods unemployed
Cumulative duration of unemployment after leaving formal
education for the last time (25-29 year olds)
Source: Cedefop calculations based on Eurostat, EULFS 2009 Ad Hoc Module. Data: EU27 excluding DE, 2009.
06/02/2012 Alex Stimpson

11. The Labour Market Outcomes of VET 11
Meeting labour market needs: VET is loyal to its design
Occupations for medium level graduates (EU27+, employed 15-34 year olds)
Source: Cedefop calculations based on Eurostat, EULFS 2009 Ad Hoc Module. Excludes NO.
06/02/2012 Alex Stimpson

12. The Labour Market Outcomes of VET 12
But replacement and re-training will be necessary over time
Future job opportunities: net change and replacement demand by 2020
(EU27+, 15-64 years)
Source: Cedefop (IER estimates based on E3ME, EDMOD and BALMOD).
Notes: EU27+ refers to the 27 EU Member States plus Norway and Switzerland
06/02/2012 Alex Stimpson

13. The Labour Market Outcomes of VET 13
Thank you for your
attention
Publication forthcoming in 2012
www.cedefop.europa.eu
alex.stimpson@cedefop.europa.eu
06/02/2012 Alex Stimpson