Mostly Convenient Truths From A Technology Optimist
1. … mostly convenient truths Vinod Khosla Khosla Ventures Nov 2007 from a technology optimist
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7. Renewable Energy USA! Source: NREL, USDA, NRCS, EIA West, SouthWest have solar… Texas has wind & solar … Southeast has biomass! Rockies have geothermal! Midwest has corn/wheat belt!
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10. Hybrids or Ethanol? Ethanol is a far cheaper and more scalable solution! Hybrid Carbon reduction 20-30% Cost $5000 Scalability Battery breakthrough Impact to automakers High Oil reduction 20-30% Corn Ethanol 20-30% $50 Cellulosic Breakthrough Low 90%
17. Lanza Mascoma Verenium Range Coskata Altra Cilion Hawaii Bio Ethos Tools Solar Natural Gas Mechanical Efficiency Electrical Efficiency Cellulosic Future Fuels Plastics Water Materials Nanostellar Codon Praj Quos NanoH2o Draths Segetis Soladigm Calera Stion Ausra Infinia Coal Efficiency Oil PAX Streamline Living Homes Transonic Kaai GIV Seeo Altarock Great Point Energy Corn/ Sugar Fuels Wind Building Materials Geothermal LS9 Gevo Amyris Kior Khosla Ventures Renewable Portfolio
42. Potential of Synthetic Biology Synthetic Biology Recombinant Small Molecule Bio-Synthetic Pathway Gene 4 Gene 2 Gene 1 Gene 3 Gene 1 Artimisinin Source of genes Custom-Built Microbe Fermentation Diesel Synthetic Biology = Fermentation Diesel X Anti-Malarial
43. Hydrocarbon Biosynthesis: Nature’s Energy Storage Designer Hydrocarbons Metabolic modeling + Synthetic biology Renewable Feedstock LS9 Designer Biofuels & Chemicals X X X X X X X X >90% Energetic Yield From Feedstock Hydrocarbons
50. Coal: Ready for Updating… Source: TXU Corp presentation
51. Standard and Poor’s Assessment Source: “Which Power Generation Technologies Will Take The Lead In Response to Carbon Controls?”, S&P Viewpoint, May 11, 2007 CCS or CO 2 Credits? Status Quo *S&P notes that there are disadvantages with wind that are not explicitly modeled - high transmission costs (because wind has limited availability), low capacity factors (30-35%), and unpredictability (leading to a greater need for backup/reserve power) Tech Risk/Price Risk / Power Quality Coal (PC) Gas – CCCT Eastern IGCC Wind Nuclear Ausra KV Est Altarock KV Est Capital Cost ($/kW) 2,438 700 2,795 1,700 4,000 3,000 4,000 Power Cost (cents/kWh) 5.8 6.8 6.8 7.1* 8.9 7-11 5-10 Power Cost W/CCS (cents/kWh) 12.0 9.6 10.2 7.1* 8.9 7-11 5-10 Power Cost w/CO 2 Credits ( $30 per ton) 7.9 7.7 8.7 7.1* 9.1 7-11 5-10 KV Assessment *** **** ** * *** ***** *****
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56. Wind Doesn’t Match Utility Demand Source: http://www.uwasa.fi/itt/teti/sahko/NEPF/vasa_nordiskvind.ppt Wind Random vs. Load Lots of power at 2am Lots of Daily Variability (30%+) Utilities want to buy power when customers need it Not when the wind blows or the sun shines! Stored power is key to increasing value of wind kwh
57. Nuclear Plants Are Expensive! Koomey, Jonathan, and Nate Hultman. 2007. “A Reactor-Level Analysis of Busbar Costs for US nuclear plants,” 1970-2005, forthcoming in Energy Policy Source: Jim Harding Solar Thermal
58. Untrustworthy Predictions: Natural Gas AEO projected natural gas prices versus actual wellhead prices Source: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory 2006
59. US Electric Power: Coal Is Back Source: www.eia.doe.gov and www.oilnergy.com Natural Gas Price “ As natural-gas supplies and prices have become a problem, the power industry is shifting to coal in a big way, with plans to build more than 100 coal-fired power plants in coming years at a potential cost of more than $100 billion” As Utilities Seek More Coal, Railroads Struggle to Deliver “ Wall Street Journal - March 15, 2006
63. Projections Are Lower Than Reality Source: Projections – Black and Veatch, UCS, NyTimes, Other news sources Type Install Date Capital Cost ($/kW) – 2006$ B&V Projected - New Coal (SC) 2010 2,180 B&V Projected - Coal - IGCC 2010 2,840 Big Stone II, South Dakota (Otter) - PC Construction 2008 $2,168 Kansas (Westar) PC Cancelled $2,333 Springfield, IL PC $2,500 Everglades, FL (FPL Glades) SCPC Cancelled $2,900 Cliffside (Duke Energy) PC Approved 2007 $3,000 West Virginia (AEP) IGCC 2012 $3,500+ Mesaba (Excelsior) IGCC Review on hold $3,593 FutureGen 2012 $6,000+
64. IGCC Capital Costs: 1996 to 2007 Capital Costs Have Doubled in 3 Years! Source: Emerging Energy Research
65. IGCC Cancellations - 2007 Investors and Utilities Are Beginning to Recognize Risk! Source: Emerging Energy Research Developer US State Status Reason for Stalling NRG Connecticut Cancelled Could not meet RFP timeline for delivery TECO Florida Cancelled State carbon policy uncertainty, rising costs Tondu Corp Texas Cancelled Rising costs, limited technology guarantees Bowie Power Arizona Cancelled Delayed local planning process, environmental opposition Buffalo Energy Partners Wyoming Cancelled Transmission constraints, rising costs, limited availability technology guarantees and unsuccessful bid for funding Mesaba Minnesota On Hold Increased costs have caused regulators to force renegotiation of costs Madison Power Illinois On Hold Construction of nearby SC coal plant has hindered demand and tied up transmission and coal transport infrastructure Tenaska, ERORA Illinois On Hold Local opposition to IGCC without carbon capture hampering regulatory proceedings NRG New York On Hold Must find cost reductions to maintain state-awarded financial support
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73. *Projected development assuming states achieve annual renewable energy targets. **If achieved, IA, IL, and ME goals would support an additional 4,400 MW by 2020. HI CA NV IA & WI NJ CT & RI MA ME MN AZ & NM NY TX New renewable energy supported: - 46,270 MW by 2020** Equivalent to: - 17.7 million less cars MD CO & MT PA DC & DE WA Renewable Energy from State Standards* BIG MARKET: BIG CARROT
76. Scalability : Land For All Electricity Carlo Rubbia, SolarPACES2006 earthobservatory.nasa.gov All Worldwide Electricity
77. USA… Looking Good Source: Creating a U.S. Market for Solar Energy, by Rhone Resch, President of the Solar Energy Industries Association. Germany: 57% world PV US: 7% world PV
78. Area requirements to power the USA (150 km) 2 of Nevada covered with 15% efficient solar cells could provide the USA with electricity Source: J.A. Turner, Science 285 1999, p. 687. ½ as much land with 30% efficient turbines
91. Geothermal Potential Source: Matthew Clyne, Black Mountain Technology, MIT Geothermal Potential in the United States 10¢ kW/hr 1,251 GW 12¢ kW/hr 7,188 GW
103. Hieroglyphic Writings… A specimen of an Egyptian language writing ca. 530 B.C. ca. 2000 A.D. A version of graphic representation of “ Top 12 DOE platform chemicals from glucose” letters syllables words poems
104. Enabling Renewable Value Chains for Sustainable Chemical Industry Renewable Feedstocks (crops & forestry) Industrial Bioproducts New Industrial Bioproducts Triglycerides (vegetable oils) Soybean, Linseed, Corn, Canola Carbohydrates Starch Sucrose Cellulose/Wood Bioplastics Specialty polymers Polymer additives Performance Surfactants Adhesives Coalescent Solvents Other Biodiesel Compound set A Compound set B Fuel ethanol Compound C Other Products Technologies: Synergy of Renewable Feedstocks
113. DuPont Sorona http://www.azom.com/images/dn_photo_swim229x275.jpg DuPont Sorona http://www.dupont.com/corp/news/daily/images/dn_photo_sorona270x270.jpg DuPont Sonona http://www.jobwerx.com/images/DuPont_sorona_apparel.jpg DuPont Sorona polymer; part of polymer is 1,3-propanediol from fermentation
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