Tom Rand - Kick the Fossil Fuel Habit

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  • Election – once again harper! Oh were it so – simpson - JOKE – doomsday not a vote-getter!KIDS – ADULT CONVERSATION - If they can’t we can.SCIENCE – TROUBLETECHNOLOGY- WAY OUTPOLICY – KNOW HOW TO DO ITAssumptions: - all false: - have time, not capable, bankrupt us, be easy-no price.We don’t have time, we are capable, it won’t bankrupt us, but it will be very difficult.Opening 2: Fossil fuel party has been a very good one.
  • Known since early 1800’s, Fourier, confirmed by John TyndallGet negative for a bit. Need to know what we’re up against. ADULT
  • 2 degrees gone – 650 ppm, excess of 4; DESCRIBE CURVEPine beetle, australiapakistanrussia - PIXEL NOT A PICTURE. This is catastropheScientific uncertainty – end of century nowNon-linear, feedbacks. NOT AN OVEN, CANNOT CONTROL THE TEMPERATURENOT LOCKED IN LOWERING RISK PROBABILITY OF CATASTROPHIC CCWhat do we do? – fast as we can What’s at stake? – everythingUnderstand Science - ENDGAME..
  • Know Technology – its possible.
  • Know politics, financial markets, economics – you know it will be hard.This will create opportunity.We know the policy tools, where capital is, create opportunity not destroy it.
  • Not negotiable that we respond to challenge, and take advantage of opportunity.
  • DENIERS: EASY to believe. Empirical fact now. James McCarthy – 5/1000 - Young guns.REX – beaudelaire Q107 – richardsimmons.AGNOSTIC – pilot/earth, post card from GodLOMBORG – 1.Systemic. 2. Not A or B. 3. but smart policy moves private capital.Nordhaus oven (2.6 degrees) 1. Not an oven 2. Model - discount rate – richer in future. 3. bridge vs factoryAristotelian ethics – All three – no action. morally and economically repugnant.
  • 25% GDP REDUCTION, BUT SMALL COSTS TO ADDRESS.CRITICISM OF STERN IS BASED ON DISCOUNT RATE
  • Responding slowly not an option - Hole in roof that destroys entire factory.
  • When we ask this question, we see why efficiency is so important.
  • DEFEND ROLE OF POLICYGEA is an economic issue, not about green electrons.Example of China – our role – next-generation technologies, but need a market to startLike training wheelsAuto, Internet, Aerospace.
  • Risk: near certainty of a catastrophic event.Pascal - Value of very small chance of infinite loss? Infinite.Financial Crisis – risk builds in systemNONLINEAR ECONOMIC MODELSINSURANCE HAS NO ACTUARIAL TABLESGrowth – high-carbon growth is impossible - now contains paradox.
  • JAPAN, GERMANY – have steel industriesOur advantage: have yet to put in capital infrastructure to lower gdp/energy
  • Billion Tonne Paper = 30% of US fuel.
  • We see why efficiencies are so important – on fuel side and electrical side.
  • Continental – really leverage wind, build reliability at systemic level.Regional – two-way streets; energy units are like network packets – can be associated with carbon content.Demand Response – Christmas card factory.
  • Financial CrisisConservative – now contains paradox.
  • We know what the policy tools look like, just as we know what the technology looks like.
  • It is not government writing cheques, it’s shaping markets, shaping movements of private capital.Markets are not a tiger, they’re an ipod.
  • Not much – generates economic activity that needs to happen sooner or later …WHY NOT MOVING?? Single industry –fossil fuel – not to save themselves, but to save the TROUBLE of changing.Making a fatal, selfish mistake.Standing on shoulders of giantsOur turn to take the baton
  • Baton, standing on shoulders of giants
  • Watermelons / Never co-op’d like this beforeAds on Q107Don’t get fired todayBankers decide
  • The market is not a tiger or a tree, it’s like an ipodIt is not government writing cheques, it’s shaping markets, shaping movements of private capital.
  • Tom Rand - Kick the Fossil Fuel Habit

    1. 1. Kick the Fossil Fuel Habit Necessity, Possibility & Difficulty. Edu Cleantech Lead Advisor, MaRS Discovery Tom Rand District P.Eng., Ph.D. Entrepreneur and Investor Author, Kick the Fossil Fuel Habit www.tomrand.net Economic PossibilitiesEconomic Developers Association of Canada Peterborough, October 3rd, 2011 © 2001 Eco Ten Publishing
    2. 2. The LowCarbonEconomy…is Necessary & Urgent “climate change … could alter the way we live in the most fundamental way … It is life itself that we battle to preserve.“ Margaret Thatcher, to the UN General Assembly, 1989.
    3. 3. The LowCarbonEconomy…is Necessary & Urgent “Business-as-usual commits us to 2 degrees of warming by 2021.“ Best-case scenarios now lead to 4 degrees plus … Which is global chaos.
    4. 4. The LowCarbonEconomy…is Possible
    5. 5. The LowCarbonEconomy…Will be Difficult ... But also opportunity “The nation that leads the world in creating a new clean energyeconomy will be the nation that leads the 21st century global economy.“ Barak Obama, 2009
    6. 6. Necessity: Climate ChangeEconomic, Moral, Existential Opportunity
    7. 7. Necessity: Climate ChangeThe “Skeptics” AGNOSTIC/SCOFFER DENIERS DELAY S “Conspiracy” Margaret Bjorn Wente Lomborg Michael Wiliam “Junk” Economides Nordhaus
    8. 8. Necessity: Climate Change GET ON WITH IT ! Sir Nicholas Stern AGNOSTIC/SCOFFER DENIERS DELAY S “Conspiracy” Margaret Bjorn Wente Lomborg Michael Wiliam “Junk” Economides Nordhaus
    9. 9. Necessity:Pace of Cleantech Adoption
    10. 10. Possibility:Successful companies …Commodity-based supply chains.Scalable, simple manufacturing processes.Low technical risk; financeable.Leverage existing infrastructure.
    11. 11. Difficulty: Scale & Speed Infrastructure Scale: Displace Fossil Fuels What do Commercial Scale: you get for Economic Viability Lab to Prototype: $1 Trillion Technical Viability
    12. 12. Cleantech Economics: Market Push vs Market Pull Technology POLICY: Green Energy Act SDTC, etc.MaRS, Venture Capital, Entrepreneurs
    13. 13. Lowering Risk:Smart Policy Risk = Probability (High) * Consequences (Severe) Create Global Opportunities Ensure Long-Term Growth
    14. 14. Necessity:Lower carbon emissions EFFICIENCY CLEAN ENERGY More GDP ($) More Energy - - Less Energy Less Carbon
    15. 15. Clean Energy
    16. 16. Kick It: BioFuels “There’s just not enough fresh water and arable land to produce enough biofuels to replace the petroleum” Dennis Bushnell, chief scientist, NASA Langley Research
    17. 17. Upper limit:Replace approx 1/3 of oil supply.
    18. 18. Efficiency: 20,000 miles of high-speed track and trains, and enough transit to offset 7.5 billion car trips.
    19. 19. Efficiency:Buildings – Low Hanging Fruit
    20. 20. Efficiency:Buildings – Low Hanging Fruit
    21. 21. EfficiencyBuildings – Low Hanging Fruit
    22. 22. Efficiency Buildings – Low Hanging Fruit Energy Technology Reductions Geo-exchange 40 % Solar Thermal 7.5 % of capital unlocksSolar PV (ONLY SUBSIDY) 15% Power-pipetm 7.5% LED Lighting/switching 5% Reduction TOTAL 75% AT A PROFIT
    23. 23. Efficiency
    24. 24. EfficiencyEconomic Competitiveness Increasing Wealth * Canada * US Energy / $ China * Japan, Germany Developed India Developing Efficiency ($ / Energy)
    25. 25. Efficiency Reduce G7 energy use by half… and have $500 billion left over.
    26. 26. Energy production equal in cost to the Tar Sands… and … Replace half US coal-based electrical production.
    27. 27. Replace 20% of US electrical production.
    28. 28. Replace 2/3 of US coal power.
    29. 29. Develop global potential tidal power …equivalent to US electrical production.
    30. 30. Continental – Grid- Balancing, Relia bility. Regional – Distributed Production. Storage Local – Demand Responsewww.kickthefossilfuelhabit.c 34 November 17, 2011
    31. 31. WindWind,Tidal, WindHydro Biomass Wind Hydro Geothermal Tidal Wind Wind Solar Biomass Solar
    32. 32. Lowering Risk:Smart Policy Risk = Probability (High) * Consequences (Severe) Create Global Opportunities Ensure Long-Term Growth
    33. 33. Lowering Risk:Smart Policy
    34. 34. Lowering Risk:Smart Policy shapes markets
    35. 35. Policy: Green BondsShifting Financial Resources - Capital Savings/Money Markets High Risk High Rates Government backing
    36. 36. Policy: Tax & DividendShifting Financial Resources - Spending High CO2 Dividend Spend Low CO2 Tax
    37. 37. Cost:High or Low? Worst case estimates : It will take 1-3 years longer …. To double global average income. By 2050.
    38. 38. Thank you Tom Rand P.Eng., Ph.D. www.tomrand.net
    39. 39. Kick it: Minimal Storage Peak Shifting Power Power Store this energy Release this Energy Time
    40. 40. Difficulty: Hard Truths www.kickthefossilfuelhabit.c 44 November 17, 2011
    41. 41. Lowering Risk:Smart Policy shapes markets Control Technology/Science Creates Market Environment Shape/Create Clean Control Market Technology Environment
    42. 42. Enough salt-water irrigationand processing capacity to:Replace half of the world’s oil supply.
    43. 43. Kick It: EfficiencyTransport 20,000 miles of high-speed track and trains, and enough transit to offset 7.5 billion car trips.
    44. 44. Clean Energy

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