Tom Rand - Kick the Fossil Fuel Habit


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  • Election – once again harper! Oh were it so – simpson - JOKE – doomsday not a vote-getter!KIDS – ADULT CONVERSATION - If they can’t we can.SCIENCE – TROUBLETECHNOLOGY- WAY OUTPOLICY – KNOW HOW TO DO ITAssumptions: - all false: - have time, not capable, bankrupt us, be easy-no price.We don’t have time, we are capable, it won’t bankrupt us, but it will be very difficult.Opening 2: Fossil fuel party has been a very good one.
  • Known since early 1800’s, Fourier, confirmed by John TyndallGet negative for a bit. Need to know what we’re up against. ADULT
  • 2 degrees gone – 650 ppm, excess of 4; DESCRIBE CURVEPine beetle, australiapakistanrussia - PIXEL NOT A PICTURE. This is catastropheScientific uncertainty – end of century nowNon-linear, feedbacks. NOT AN OVEN, CANNOT CONTROL THE TEMPERATURENOT LOCKED IN LOWERING RISK PROBABILITY OF CATASTROPHIC CCWhat do we do? – fast as we can What’s at stake? – everythingUnderstand Science - ENDGAME..
  • Know Technology – its possible.
  • Know politics, financial markets, economics – you know it will be hard.This will create opportunity.We know the policy tools, where capital is, create opportunity not destroy it.
  • Not negotiable that we respond to challenge, and take advantage of opportunity.
  • DENIERS: EASY to believe. Empirical fact now. James McCarthy – 5/1000 - Young guns.REX – beaudelaire Q107 – richardsimmons.AGNOSTIC – pilot/earth, post card from GodLOMBORG – 1.Systemic. 2. Not A or B. 3. but smart policy moves private capital.Nordhaus oven (2.6 degrees) 1. Not an oven 2. Model - discount rate – richer in future. 3. bridge vs factoryAristotelian ethics – All three – no action. morally and economically repugnant.
  • Responding slowly not an option - Hole in roof that destroys entire factory.
  • When we ask this question, we see why efficiency is so important.
  • DEFEND ROLE OF POLICYGEA is an economic issue, not about green electrons.Example of China – our role – next-generation technologies, but need a market to startLike training wheelsAuto, Internet, Aerospace.
  • Risk: near certainty of a catastrophic event.Pascal - Value of very small chance of infinite loss? Infinite.Financial Crisis – risk builds in systemNONLINEAR ECONOMIC MODELSINSURANCE HAS NO ACTUARIAL TABLESGrowth – high-carbon growth is impossible - now contains paradox.
  • JAPAN, GERMANY – have steel industriesOur advantage: have yet to put in capital infrastructure to lower gdp/energy
  • Billion Tonne Paper = 30% of US fuel.
  • We see why efficiencies are so important – on fuel side and electrical side.
  • Continental – really leverage wind, build reliability at systemic level.Regional – two-way streets; energy units are like network packets – can be associated with carbon content.Demand Response – Christmas card factory.
  • Financial CrisisConservative – now contains paradox.
  • We know what the policy tools look like, just as we know what the technology looks like.
  • It is not government writing cheques, it’s shaping markets, shaping movements of private capital.Markets are not a tiger, they’re an ipod.
  • Not much – generates economic activity that needs to happen sooner or later …WHY NOT MOVING?? Single industry –fossil fuel – not to save themselves, but to save the TROUBLE of changing.Making a fatal, selfish mistake.Standing on shoulders of giantsOur turn to take the baton
  • Baton, standing on shoulders of giants
  • Watermelons / Never co-op’d like this beforeAds on Q107Don’t get fired todayBankers decide
  • The market is not a tiger or a tree, it’s like an ipodIt is not government writing cheques, it’s shaping markets, shaping movements of private capital.
  • Tom Rand - Kick the Fossil Fuel Habit

    1. 1. Kick the Fossil Fuel Habit Necessity, Possibility & Difficulty. Edu Cleantech Lead Advisor, MaRS Discovery Tom Rand District P.Eng., Ph.D. Entrepreneur and Investor Author, Kick the Fossil Fuel Habit Economic PossibilitiesEconomic Developers Association of Canada Peterborough, October 3rd, 2011 © 2001 Eco Ten Publishing
    2. 2. The LowCarbonEconomy…is Necessary & Urgent “climate change … could alter the way we live in the most fundamental way … It is life itself that we battle to preserve.“ Margaret Thatcher, to the UN General Assembly, 1989.
    3. 3. The LowCarbonEconomy…is Necessary & Urgent “Business-as-usual commits us to 2 degrees of warming by 2021.“ Best-case scenarios now lead to 4 degrees plus … Which is global chaos.
    4. 4. The LowCarbonEconomy…is Possible
    5. 5. The LowCarbonEconomy…Will be Difficult ... But also opportunity “The nation that leads the world in creating a new clean energyeconomy will be the nation that leads the 21st century global economy.“ Barak Obama, 2009
    6. 6. Necessity: Climate ChangeEconomic, Moral, Existential Opportunity
    7. 7. Necessity: Climate ChangeThe “Skeptics” AGNOSTIC/SCOFFER DENIERS DELAY S “Conspiracy” Margaret Bjorn Wente Lomborg Michael Wiliam “Junk” Economides Nordhaus
    8. 8. Necessity: Climate Change GET ON WITH IT ! Sir Nicholas Stern AGNOSTIC/SCOFFER DENIERS DELAY S “Conspiracy” Margaret Bjorn Wente Lomborg Michael Wiliam “Junk” Economides Nordhaus
    9. 9. Necessity:Pace of Cleantech Adoption
    10. 10. Possibility:Successful companies …Commodity-based supply chains.Scalable, simple manufacturing processes.Low technical risk; financeable.Leverage existing infrastructure.
    11. 11. Difficulty: Scale & Speed Infrastructure Scale: Displace Fossil Fuels What do Commercial Scale: you get for Economic Viability Lab to Prototype: $1 Trillion Technical Viability
    12. 12. Cleantech Economics: Market Push vs Market Pull Technology POLICY: Green Energy Act SDTC, etc.MaRS, Venture Capital, Entrepreneurs
    13. 13. Lowering Risk:Smart Policy Risk = Probability (High) * Consequences (Severe) Create Global Opportunities Ensure Long-Term Growth
    14. 14. Necessity:Lower carbon emissions EFFICIENCY CLEAN ENERGY More GDP ($) More Energy - - Less Energy Less Carbon
    15. 15. Clean Energy
    16. 16. Kick It: BioFuels “There’s just not enough fresh water and arable land to produce enough biofuels to replace the petroleum” Dennis Bushnell, chief scientist, NASA Langley Research
    17. 17. Upper limit:Replace approx 1/3 of oil supply.
    18. 18. Efficiency: 20,000 miles of high-speed track and trains, and enough transit to offset 7.5 billion car trips.
    19. 19. Efficiency:Buildings – Low Hanging Fruit
    20. 20. Efficiency:Buildings – Low Hanging Fruit
    21. 21. EfficiencyBuildings – Low Hanging Fruit
    22. 22. Efficiency Buildings – Low Hanging Fruit Energy Technology Reductions Geo-exchange 40 % Solar Thermal 7.5 % of capital unlocksSolar PV (ONLY SUBSIDY) 15% Power-pipetm 7.5% LED Lighting/switching 5% Reduction TOTAL 75% AT A PROFIT
    23. 23. Efficiency
    24. 24. EfficiencyEconomic Competitiveness Increasing Wealth * Canada * US Energy / $ China * Japan, Germany Developed India Developing Efficiency ($ / Energy)
    25. 25. Efficiency Reduce G7 energy use by half… and have $500 billion left over.
    26. 26. Energy production equal in cost to the Tar Sands… and … Replace half US coal-based electrical production.
    27. 27. Replace 20% of US electrical production.
    28. 28. Replace 2/3 of US coal power.
    29. 29. Develop global potential tidal power …equivalent to US electrical production.
    30. 30. Continental – Grid- Balancing, Relia bility. Regional – Distributed Production. Storage Local – Demand Responsewww.kickthefossilfuelhabit.c 34 November 17, 2011
    31. 31. WindWind,Tidal, WindHydro Biomass Wind Hydro Geothermal Tidal Wind Wind Solar Biomass Solar
    32. 32. Lowering Risk:Smart Policy Risk = Probability (High) * Consequences (Severe) Create Global Opportunities Ensure Long-Term Growth
    33. 33. Lowering Risk:Smart Policy
    34. 34. Lowering Risk:Smart Policy shapes markets
    35. 35. Policy: Green BondsShifting Financial Resources - Capital Savings/Money Markets High Risk High Rates Government backing
    36. 36. Policy: Tax & DividendShifting Financial Resources - Spending High CO2 Dividend Spend Low CO2 Tax
    37. 37. Cost:High or Low? Worst case estimates : It will take 1-3 years longer …. To double global average income. By 2050.
    38. 38. Thank you Tom Rand P.Eng., Ph.D.
    39. 39. Kick it: Minimal Storage Peak Shifting Power Power Store this energy Release this Energy Time
    40. 40. Difficulty: Hard Truths www.kickthefossilfuelhabit.c 44 November 17, 2011
    41. 41. Lowering Risk:Smart Policy shapes markets Control Technology/Science Creates Market Environment Shape/Create Clean Control Market Technology Environment
    42. 42. Enough salt-water irrigationand processing capacity to:Replace half of the world’s oil supply.
    43. 43. Kick It: EfficiencyTransport 20,000 miles of high-speed track and trains, and enough transit to offset 7.5 billion car trips.
    44. 44. Clean Energy