Election – once again harper! Oh were it so – simpson - JOKE – doomsday not a vote-getter!KIDS – ADULT CONVERSATION - If they can’t we can.SCIENCE – TROUBLETECHNOLOGY- WAY OUTPOLICY – KNOW HOW TO DO ITAssumptions: - all false: - have time, not capable, bankrupt us, be easy-no price.We don’t have time, we are capable, it won’t bankrupt us, but it will be very difficult.Opening 2: Fossil fuel party has been a very good one.
Known since early 1800’s, Fourier, confirmed by John TyndallGet negative for a bit. Need to know what we’re up against. ADULT
2 degrees gone – 650 ppm, excess of 4; DESCRIBE CURVEPine beetle, australiapakistanrussia - PIXEL NOT A PICTURE. This is catastropheScientific uncertainty – end of century nowNon-linear, feedbacks. NOT AN OVEN, CANNOT CONTROL THE TEMPERATURENOT LOCKED IN LOWERING RISK PROBABILITY OF CATASTROPHIC CCWhat do we do? – fast as we can What’s at stake? – everythingUnderstand Science - ENDGAME..
Know Technology – its possible.
Know politics, financial markets, economics – you know it will be hard.This will create opportunity.We know the policy tools, where capital is, create opportunity not destroy it.
Not negotiable that we respond to challenge, and take advantage of opportunity.
DENIERS: EASY to believe. Empirical fact now. James McCarthy – 5/1000 - Young guns.REX – beaudelaire Q107 – richardsimmons.AGNOSTIC – pilot/earth, post card from GodLOMBORG – 1.Systemic. 2. Not A or B. 3. but smart policy moves private capital.Nordhaus oven (2.6 degrees) 1. Not an oven 2. Model - discount rate – richer in future. 3. bridge vs factoryAristotelian ethics – All three – no action. morally and economically repugnant.
25% GDP REDUCTION, BUT SMALL COSTS TO ADDRESS.CRITICISM OF STERN IS BASED ON DISCOUNT RATE
Responding slowly not an option - Hole in roof that destroys entire factory.
When we ask this question, we see why efficiency is so important.
DEFEND ROLE OF POLICYGEA is an economic issue, not about green electrons.Example of China – our role – next-generation technologies, but need a market to startLike training wheelsAuto, Internet, Aerospace.
Risk: near certainty of a catastrophic event.Pascal - Value of very small chance of infinite loss? Infinite.Financial Crisis – risk builds in systemNONLINEAR ECONOMIC MODELSINSURANCE HAS NO ACTUARIAL TABLESGrowth – high-carbon growth is impossible - now contains paradox.
JAPAN, GERMANY – have steel industriesOur advantage: have yet to put in capital infrastructure to lower gdp/energy
Billion Tonne Paper = 30% of US fuel.
We see why efficiencies are so important – on fuel side and electrical side.
Continental – really leverage wind, build reliability at systemic level.Regional – two-way streets; energy units are like network packets – can be associated with carbon content.Demand Response – Christmas card factory.
Financial CrisisConservative – now contains paradox.
We know what the policy tools look like, just as we know what the technology looks like.
It is not government writing cheques, it’s shaping markets, shaping movements of private capital.Markets are not a tiger, they’re an ipod.
Not much – generates economic activity that needs to happen sooner or later …WHY NOT MOVING?? Single industry –fossil fuel – not to save themselves, but to save the TROUBLE of changing.Making a fatal, selfish mistake.Standing on shoulders of giantsOur turn to take the baton
Baton, standing on shoulders of giants
Watermelons / Never co-op’d like this beforeAds on Q107Don’t get fired todayBankers decide
The market is not a tiger or a tree, it’s like an ipodIt is not government writing cheques, it’s shaping markets, shaping movements of private capital.
The LowCarbonEconomy…is Necessary & Urgent “climate change … could alter the way we live in the most fundamental way … It is life itself that we battle to preserve.“ Margaret Thatcher, to the UN General Assembly, 1989.
The LowCarbonEconomy…is Necessary & Urgent “Business-as-usual commits us to 2 degrees of warming by 2021.“ Best-case scenarios now lead to 4 degrees plus … Which is global chaos.
The LowCarbonEconomy…Will be Difficult ... But also opportunity “The nation that leads the world in creating a new clean energyeconomy will be the nation that leads the 21st century global economy.“ Barak Obama, 2009
Efficiency Buildings – Low Hanging Fruit Energy Technology Reductions Geo-exchange 40 % Solar Thermal 7.5 % of capital unlocksSolar PV (ONLY SUBSIDY) 15% Power-pipetm 7.5% LED Lighting/switching 5% Reduction TOTAL 75% AT A PROFIT