Mekong Forum on Water, Food and Energy. 2012. Stuart Orr's keynote presentation.

1. Dams on the
Mekong River:
Lost fish protein
and the
implications for
land and water
resources
Hanoi, 2012
Stuart Orr, WWF International

2. Research on protein displacement
• Co-authors: Jamie Pittock (ANU), Ashok
Chapagain (WWF), David Dumaresq (ANU)
• Sources of data:
– Dams and impact on fish from Strategic
Environmental Assessment
– Food produced and imported from FAOStat.
• Conservative assumptions, e.g. no population
growth, no loss to inundation, no dietary change
• Use of WF/LF vs. CBA

3. Two scenarios for Mekong basin dams
1. Replacement of 340,000
tonnes (16% reduction) of lost
fish protein due to the
proposed 11 main stem dams
2. Replacement of the net loss in
fish protein (-23.4 to -37.8%)
as a result of all 88 dams
proposed for development by
2030 (taking into account 10%
reservoir fisheries gains)

4. Volume and portion of changes in fish
resources in the Mekong basin (ICEM 2010)
Changes in fish catch Change in wild freshwater Change in fish
forecast for 2030 fish catch (tonnes) resources (%)
Scenario 1: Losses due to -340,000 -16
the 11 main stem dams
Losses due to the impact of 77 -210,000 to -540,000 -10 to -26
proposed basin dams
Total losses in capture -550,000 to -880,000 -26 to -42
fisheries
10% gain from reservoir +55,000 to +88,000 +2.6 to +4.2
fisheries
Scenario 2: Net losses in -495,000 to -792,000 -23.4 to -37.8
fish resources

5. Four options to replace lost protein
1. Import protein
2. Expand aquaculture production
3. Expand livestock production (this study)
4. Expand protein-rich crop production
15 November, 2012 - 5

6. Each option involves resources
and trade-offs
• Cost of food increases - impacts on the poor
• Land and water resource scenarios
• Costs of inputs of production - fertiliser, animal
feed
• Greenhouse gas emissions
• Institutional and infrastructure issues
• Access, equity, costs, financial investments
• Purchasing power
15 November, 2012 - 6

7. Conversion factors for equivalent calorie and
protein value of meat and dairy products.
(FAO 2001)
Products Energy Kcal/100g Protein g/100g
Beef and buffalo 77 11.3
meat
Eggs primary 139 10.7
Milk 61 3.3
Pig meat 220 13.4
Poultry meat 185 17.1
Sheep and goat meat 263 13.5
Fish 69 11

8. Livestock protein consumption by nation
(FAO 2005, 2008)
Quantity '000 t/yr
Livestock and milk
products Production Import Export “Food”
Beef and buffalo meat 70 0.2 0.0 70
Eggs primary 17 0.0 0.0 16
Cambodia
Milk 23 59.5 0.0 81
Pig meat 131 0.1 0.0 132
Poultry meat 26 0.0 0.0 26
Sheep and goat meat 0 0.0 0.0 0
Total 266 59.9 0.0 325

9. Water footprint changes for livestock
Country Baseline WF Scenario 1 Scenario 2
Mm3/yr % increase % increase
Cambodia 1,666 29 - 64 42 - 150
Laos 793 12 - 24 18 - 56
Thailand 16,896 3-3 4-8
Viet Nam 12,514 2-4 3-9
Total 31,869 4-7 6 - 17
15 November, 2012 - 9

10. Land (pasture) footprint changes
Country Baseline Scenario 1 Scenario 2
pasture % increase % increase
land (2005)
km2
Cambodia 15,000 25 - 55 36 - 129
Laos 8,780 9 - 19 14 - 43
Thailand 8,000 3 4-8
Viet Nam 6,420 1-3 2-6
Total* 38,200 13 - 27 19 - 63
Pasture increase of 7,080 km2 to 24,188 km2
15 November, 2012 - 10

11. Historical agricultural land use change
Land area Cambodia Laos Thailand Vietnam Total
Agricultural
lands (km2) 53,070 18,790 201,670 95,370 369,007
Pastures
15,000 8,780 8,000 6,420 38,200
(km2)
Agricultural
land area
annual growth -0.1 1.0 -0.6 2.7 n/a
rate 1980-
1990 (%) 15 November, 2012 - 11

12. Food prices and poverty (ADB 2008)
Country Population % in Vulnerability Vulnerability to
(million) poverty to 10% 10% increase
increase in in food prices
food prices (people)
(%)
Cambodia 14.5 35 4.4 610,000
Laos 6.8 31 5.1 280,000
Thailand 65.9 10 0 0
Viet Nam 87.0 15 2.4 1,980,000
Total 174.2 2,870,000
15 November, 2012 - 12

13. (1) Conclusions: to replace lost fish
• Water requirements for livestock protein
production increase from 6% to 17% but is
considerably higher in Cambodia and Laos
• Inundation of 1,350 km2 by the 11 main stem
dams
• Not all protein is equal
• Additional pasture land required to replace fish
protein with domestic livestock ranges from
7,080 to 24,188 km2 (13% to 63%)
15 November, 2012 - 13

14. (2) Conclusions: socio-economic
• Significant economic, social and environmental
impacts
• Import / export and water opportunity costs
• Increased imports of livestock feedstock &
protein (soy cake from 19,895 km2 now)
• Higher protein prices may impact the poor
• Cambodia followed by Laos will be the biggest
losers in terms of food insecurity
15 November, 2012 - 14

15. Thank you www.panda.org