Dams on the Mekong River: Lost Fish Protein and the Implications for Land and Water Resources
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Dams on the Mekong River: Lost Fish Protein and the Implications for Land and Water Resources

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Mekong Forum on Water, Food and Energy. 2012. Stuart Orr's keynote presentation.

Mekong Forum on Water, Food and Energy. 2012. Stuart Orr's keynote presentation.

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Dams on the Mekong River: Lost Fish Protein and the Implications for Land and Water Resources Dams on the Mekong River: Lost Fish Protein and the Implications for Land and Water Resources Presentation Transcript

  • Dams on theMekong River:Lost fish proteinand theimplications forland and waterresourcesHanoi, 2012Stuart Orr, WWF International
  • Research on protein displacement• Co-authors: Jamie Pittock (ANU), Ashok Chapagain (WWF), David Dumaresq (ANU)• Sources of data: – Dams and impact on fish from Strategic Environmental Assessment – Food produced and imported from FAOStat.• Conservative assumptions, e.g. no population growth, no loss to inundation, no dietary change• Use of WF/LF vs. CBA
  • Two scenarios for Mekong basin dams1. Replacement of 340,000 tonnes (16% reduction) of lost fish protein due to the proposed 11 main stem dams2. Replacement of the net loss in fish protein (-23.4 to -37.8%) as a result of all 88 dams proposed for development by 2030 (taking into account 10% reservoir fisheries gains)
  • Volume and portion of changes in fish resources in the Mekong basin (ICEM 2010)Changes in fish catch Change in wild freshwater Change in fishforecast for 2030 fish catch (tonnes) resources (%)Scenario 1: Losses due to -340,000 -16the 11 main stem damsLosses due to the impact of 77 -210,000 to -540,000 -10 to -26proposed basin damsTotal losses in capture -550,000 to -880,000 -26 to -42fisheries10% gain from reservoir +55,000 to +88,000 +2.6 to +4.2fisheriesScenario 2: Net losses in -495,000 to -792,000 -23.4 to -37.8fish resources
  • Four options to replace lost protein1. Import protein2. Expand aquaculture production3. Expand livestock production (this study)4. Expand protein-rich crop production 15 November, 2012 - 5
  • Each option involves resources and trade-offs• Cost of food increases - impacts on the poor• Land and water resource scenarios• Costs of inputs of production - fertiliser, animal feed• Greenhouse gas emissions• Institutional and infrastructure issues• Access, equity, costs, financial investments• Purchasing power 15 November, 2012 - 6
  • Conversion factors for equivalent calorie and protein value of meat and dairy products. (FAO 2001)Products Energy Kcal/100g Protein g/100gBeef and buffalo 77 11.3meatEggs primary 139 10.7Milk 61 3.3Pig meat 220 13.4Poultry meat 185 17.1Sheep and goat meat 263 13.5Fish 69 11
  • Livestock protein consumption by nation (FAO 2005, 2008) Quantity 000 t/yr Livestock and milk products Production Import Export “Food” Beef and buffalo meat 70 0.2 0.0 70 Eggs primary 17 0.0 0.0 16Cambodia Milk 23 59.5 0.0 81 Pig meat 131 0.1 0.0 132 Poultry meat 26 0.0 0.0 26 Sheep and goat meat 0 0.0 0.0 0 Total 266 59.9 0.0 325
  • Water footprint changes for livestock Country Baseline WF Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Mm3/yr % increase % increaseCambodia 1,666 29 - 64 42 - 150Laos 793 12 - 24 18 - 56Thailand 16,896 3-3 4-8Viet Nam 12,514 2-4 3-9Total 31,869 4-7 6 - 17 15 November, 2012 - 9
  • Land (pasture) footprint changes Country Baseline Scenario 1 Scenario 2 pasture % increase % increase land (2005) km2Cambodia 15,000 25 - 55 36 - 129Laos 8,780 9 - 19 14 - 43Thailand 8,000 3 4-8Viet Nam 6,420 1-3 2-6Total* 38,200 13 - 27 19 - 63Pasture increase of 7,080 km2 to 24,188 km2 15 November, 2012 - 10
  • Historical agricultural land use change Land area Cambodia Laos Thailand Vietnam Total Agricultural lands (km2) 53,070 18,790 201,670 95,370 369,007 Pastures 15,000 8,780 8,000 6,420 38,200 (km2) Agricultural land areaannual growth -0.1 1.0 -0.6 2.7 n/a rate 1980- 1990 (%) 15 November, 2012 - 11
  • Food prices and poverty (ADB 2008) Country Population % in Vulnerability Vulnerability to (million) poverty to 10% 10% increase increase in in food prices food prices (people) (%)Cambodia 14.5 35 4.4 610,000Laos 6.8 31 5.1 280,000Thailand 65.9 10 0 0Viet Nam 87.0 15 2.4 1,980,000Total 174.2 2,870,000 15 November, 2012 - 12
  • (1) Conclusions: to replace lost fish• Water requirements for livestock protein production increase from 6% to 17% but is considerably higher in Cambodia and Laos• Inundation of 1,350 km2 by the 11 main stem dams• Not all protein is equal• Additional pasture land required to replace fish protein with domestic livestock ranges from 7,080 to 24,188 km2 (13% to 63%) 15 November, 2012 - 13
  • (2) Conclusions: socio-economic• Significant economic, social and environmental impacts• Import / export and water opportunity costs• Increased imports of livestock feedstock & protein (soy cake from 19,895 km2 now)• Higher protein prices may impact the poor• Cambodia followed by Laos will be the biggest losers in terms of food insecurity 15 November, 2012 - 14
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