This document proposes the creation of a Virtual Sugarcane Biorefinery (VSB) program to optimize biorefinery concepts and processes, assess different alternatives, and evaluate the success of new technologies. The VSB will use mathematical modeling, integrated process simulation considering sustainability parameters, and validation activities to design and assess basic and optimized biorefinery routes. This will provide benefits to research institutions, government organizations, funding agencies, and companies in guiding research and identifying business opportunities. CTBE will lead the VSB program working with associated institutions.

1. CTBE Virtual Sugarcane
Biorefinery Proposal: concept,
objectives and execution plan
Centro de Ciência e Tecnologia do Bioetanol – CTBE
Antonio Bonomi
antonio.bonomi@bioetanol.org.br
Workshop on Virtual Sugarcane Biorefinery:
assessing success of new technologies
August, 2009

2. Content
(1) Motivation and Concept
(2) Objectives
(3) Scope
(4) Execution Plan
• Mathematical Modeling and Simulation Net
• Integrated Process Simulation
• Sustainability Parameters
• Assessment and Validation
(5) Activities and Schedule
(6) Expected Benefits

3. Motivation
How to measure the success
level in R&D&I activities ?
Basic Science Publications
Technology Development ?
In order to solve this dilemma,
CTBE decided to build the
Virtual Sugarcane Biorefinery Program

4. Concept - VSB
• CTBE’s Programs Mathematical
• Associated Institutions Modeling Net
• Stakeholders • Processes
• Unit Operations
Process Virtual Biorefinery
Alternatives • Simulation Assessment of
• Process Optimization
(industrial and
• Impacts Calculation Success Level
agricultural)
• Comparison with Standard Biorefinery
Input -
Virtual
Impacts: Economic Life Cycle
• economic And Risk Assessment Output Sugarcane
• environmental Assessment (LCA) Assessment Biorefinery
• social (VSB)

5. Concept - Biorefinery
• Food and Feed Grains,
Feedstock(s)
biological raw material various, • Lignocellulosic Biomass,
mixed • Forest Biomass,
• Municipal Solid Waste.
• Bioprocesses,
Processing Technologies • Chemical Processes,
various, • Thermo-chemical Processes,
combined
• Thermal Processes,
• Physical Processes.
Products • Fuels,
Substances • Chemical, Basic
and Energy • Materials, Principles
various,
multi product systems • Specialties, of a
• Commodities, Goods. Biorefinery
(Kamm and Kamm,
2004)

6. Objectives
(1) Optimize concepts and processes.
(2) Assess different biorefinery alternatives.
(3) Assess stage of development of new
technologies.

7. Scope
Basic routes to be designed / technically assessed:
Route 1: ethanol (1st generation), sugar, electricity;
Route 2: ethanol (2nd generation) – hydrolysis;
Route 3: liquid fuels – synthesis gas;
Route 4: alcoholchemistry;
In all routes
sugarcane
Route 5: sugarchemistry; agricultural
technologies
Route 6: lignocellulosechemistry; are included
Route n: other routes.

8. Scope
Development stages:
Basic Biorefinery: definition of standard production units,
considering the defined routes, including both
industrial and agro technologies.
Optimized Biorefinery: construction of mathematical
models for the operation units – optimization
of the production (agriculture and industrial)
units. Integration with a Net of Institutions.
Aggregated Biorefinery: aggregation of the concepts of
raw-material production and product and by-
product uses.

9. Execution Plan
Mathematical Modeling and Simulation Net
Sub-Net 1 Sub-Net 2
Simulation Optimization
Platform Strategies
NET Virtual
Optimized
Modeling and
Simulation
Sub-Net 3 Sub-Net 4 Sugarcane
Mathematical
Models
Sustainability
Impacts
Biorefinery
Agricultural
Technologies

10. Execution Plan
Integrated Process Simulation
Sub-Net 1
• Simulation Platform
- commercial packages (ASPEN Plus, SuperPro Designer, Hysys)
- major characteristics:
⇒ large variety of process/operations;
⇒ elaborate mass and energy balances;
⇒ design and evaluate the cost of equipments;
⇒ Data Basis (adequate/update);
⇒ calculate required raw materials and utilities;
⇒ characterize effluents;
⇒ elaborate sustainability analysis.

11. Execution Plan
Integrated Process Simulation
• Basic Biorefinery
- Gathering Process Data Production Profile
⇒ technical literature;
⇒ judicious survey + set of experimental measurements
at a production unit.
- Examples:
⇒ MACEDO et al., 2008 – sample of 44 sugarcane mills
Central-South region of Brazil.
⇒ IPT, 1990 – Handbook for Energy Conservation in the
sugar and ethanol industry.

12. Execution Plan
Integrated Process Simulation
Sub-Net 2
• Optimized Biorefinery
- development and application of techniques for the
optimization of subsystems composed by integrated
operations – examples:
⇒ power and heat co-generation;
⇒ water net consumption.
- integrated processes optimization (example: amount of
surplus electricity) depends on:
⇒ adopted technology for production;
⇒ steam consumption;
⇒ amount of fibers (bagasse and straw).

13. Execution Plan
Integrated Process Simulation
• Optimized Biorefinery Sub-Net 3
- mathematical modeling of unit operations:
⇒ selection and definition of priorities;
⇒ simulation platform / literature (to be adapted);
⇒ formulation of a new model.
- mathematical modeling formulation:
⇒ state variables identification;
⇒ models formulation (phenomenological, input-output, etc.);
⇒ experimental data (lab, pilot plant or industrial plant);
⇒ models fitting;
⇒ statistical evaluation;
⇒ model validation (by other group).

14. Execution Plan
Sustainability Parameters Sub-Net 4
• In order to analyze the most relevant impacts, the
following tools will be used:
- economic and risk analysis
⇒ profitability and investment calculations and risk evaluation;
- life cycle analysis
⇒ environmental aspects related to a product from utilized
raw material, production, distribution and final use;
- input-output analysis
⇒ modifications in the level of activity of each sector, as a
function of the changes in the demand for products of one or
more sectors.

15. Execution Plan
Agricultural Technologies Sub-Net 5
• Modeling of agricultural operations.
• Characteristics of the produced sugarcane and
interactions with the Biorefinery
• Environmental aspects related with the agricultural
sector (irrigation, no-till farming, fertilization, LUC,
iLUC, transportation, others).

16. Execution Plan
Assessment and Validation
• VSB Premises
- completely transparent;
- plausible;
- involvement of the interested parts (stakeholders and
associated institutions);
- stakeholders should help solving conflicts;
- practical and feasible standard application models;
- adoption of compromise solutions – cannot be modified
unless a new agreement is reached;
- several stages of evaluation and validation.

17. Execution Plan
Assessment and Validation
• VSB Program Working Plan
- participation of international and national referees;
• Validation of Mathematical Models
- as soon as a MM is constructed by Institution A, it
should be validated by Institution B.
• Validation of Obtained Results
- should be periodically submitted and evaluated by the
stakeholders.

18. Activities and Schedule

19. Activities and Schedule
2nd Generation Ethanol
Basic Flowsheets
Preliminary Simulation
Evaluation with P.S.
Optimized Simulation
Aggregated Simulation
Evaluation with O.S.
Evaluation with A.S.

20. Expected Benefits
(1) Research Institutions
• focus research activities;
• coordinated financial support;
• identification of research priorities;
• assessment of research success.
(2) Government Organizations
• support for government planning;
• definition of government priorities.
(3) Funding Agencies
• definition of support priorities;
• assessment of research success.
(4) Companies – Entrepreneurs
• support for planning;
• selection of projects – business opportunities;
• assessment of research success.

21. Building Team
CTBE Associated Institutions
VSB Program • FEQ/UNICAMP
• Antonio Bonomi (Coordinator)
• NIPE/UNICAMP
• Mirna Scandiffio (LCA)
• Marcelo Cunha (IO, Economic Analysis) • DEQ/EPUSP
• Charles Dayan (Mathematical Modeling)
• Marina Dias (Simulation Platform) • DEQ/UFSCar
• Specialists (Agriculture, Biorefineries,
• CTC
Ethanol Distribution and Use,
Residues Disposal, others) • IPT
Other Programs (strong interaction): • UEM
• Basic Science
• UFPE
• Pilot Plant
• Low Impact Mechanization others
• Sustainability

22. OBRIGADO !
Bonomi e Equipe

24. Execution Plan
Sustainability Parameters
• Economic Assessment and Risk Analysis
- investment calculation;
- profitability analysis (net profit, gross margin, return on
investment, payback time, etc.);
- risk analysis – expected values
based on probability
distribution of each
input variable subject
to uncertainty.

25. Execution Plan
Sustainability Parameters
• Economic Assessment and Risk Analysis
- Results of the Risk Analysis Model
Ethanol from sugarcane bagasse (US$/liter)
Accumulated
Lower Higher
Process Expected Value Occurence
Value Value
Probability (*)
Diluted H2SO4 0.373 52% 0.268 0.520
Concentrated HCl 0.507 52% 0.343 0.688
Organosolv 1.348 55% 0.867 1.970
Enzymatic Hydrolysis 0.388 51% 0.275 0.534
AEX 0.691 54% 0.457 1.020
Pentoses and Glucose 0.453 52% 0.327 0.587
(*) Accumulated probability of occurrence from the lower to the expected value.
IPT, 2000

26. Execution Plan
Sustainability Parameters
• Life Cycle Analysis - LCA
- systematic approach, aiming at identifying the environmental
aspects related to the life cycle of a product, from its production
up to its final use;
- it includes analysis of:
⇒ raw materials
⇒ production
⇒ distribution
⇒ use / disposal
products and
by-products.
ISO, 2006

27. Execution Plan
Sustainability Parameters
• Life Cycle Analysis - LCA
- Normalized potential impacts for the ethanol LCA
OMETTO et al., 2009

28. Execution Plan
Sustainability Parameters
• Input-Output Analysis (IO)
- input-output models are used to:
⇒ quantify the modifications in the level of activity of each sector,
as a function of the changes in the demand for products of
one or more sectors;
⇒ structural modifications due to technological changes of the
production sectors.
- general equilibrium models are used to capture the alteration in the
use of production factors and in the production of goods as a
function of modifications in the relative prices.
- used to compare impacts and indicators related to the variables:
⇒ level of activity in a sector; ⇒ collection of taxes;
⇒ generated employment; ⇒ energy use (renewable);
⇒ distribution of income; ⇒ GHG emissions;
⇒ added value; ⇒ others.

29. Execution Plan
Sustainability Parameters
• Input-Output Analysis (IO)
- Sector index of incorporated energy in the final demand
Incorporated Renewable
Sector Energy energy
(toe/R$1,000) participation
Pulp, paper and paper products 0.280 75.9 %
Coke and refined petroleum products 1.135 5.3 %
Ethanol from sugarcane 1.463 96.5 %
Chemicals 0.132 40.5 %
Weighted average 0.119 39.0 %
CUNHA and PEREIRA, 2008