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Global Economic Hotspots: Growth through exporting
- 1. 1 Global Economic Hotspots: Growth through exporting Pierre Cléroux, Vice-President and Chief Economist January 13, 2015 | Calgary Chamber of Commerce
- 2. 2 > The economic hotspots > Exports: A tool for growth > Strategic considerations: online presence
- 3. 3 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 2012 2013 2014 2015 World Advanced Economies Emerging Economies Advanced economies do the heavy lifting Source: World Economic Outlook, October 2014 GDP growth
- 4. 4 Developed economies Source: World Economic Outlook, October 2014 U.S. 3.1 UK 2.7 Korea 4.0
- 5. 5 Emerging markets China 7.1 India 6.4 Mexico 3.5 Philippines 6.3 Source: World Economic Outlook, October 2014 Indonesia 5.5 Peru 5.1 Columbia 4.5
- 6. 6 Exports: A tool for growth
- 7. 7 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014(F) 2015(F) 2016(F) 2017(F) 2018(F) 2019(F) GDP growth GDP growth % Ageing population will limit economic growth & opportunity Forecast Average: 2.6 Average: 2.0 Source : IMF
- 8. 8 Exporters are more likely to be high growth firms Likelihood of being a high growth firm by firm size and export status, 1993 - 2003 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 All Sizes 1 - 4 5 - 19 20 - 49 50 - 99 100+ % of high growth firms Non-Exporters Exporters Source: Industry Canada, Profile of Growth Firms: A Summary of Industry Canada Research, March 2008
- 9. 9 The ‘most successful firms’ export more Source: BDC/Nielsen 26.0 14.0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Most successful businesses All others % Exports
- 10. 10 Alberta exports, excluding crude oil and petroleum, by industry (2013) 0.8% 1.8% 2.2% 2.3% 2.6% 4.0% 5.8% 6.5% 12.2% 15.8% 28.3% 0% 10% 20% 30% Aerospace product and parts manufacturing Cattle ranching and farming Navigational and measuring instruments Coal mining Wood product manufacturing Grain and oilseed milling Paper manufacturing Meat product manufacturing Machinery manufacturing Oilseed and grain farming Chemical manufacturing Crude leads Alberta exports, other products follow Source: Industry Canada
- 11. 11 Non-crude oil exports are growing… Meat product 18,1% 21,7% 27,8% 44,1% 47,8% 10,7% Wood product Aerospace Machinery Oilseed and grain farming Chemical manufacturing Source: Industry Canada % increase in 2014
- 12. 12Source: Industry Canada …in every part of the world Russia UAE Venezuela Indonesia Netherlands China Japan Mexico South Korea U.S. 12.4% 11.2% 10.6% 10.0% 8.4% 6.5% 4.0% 3.1% 3.0% 1.4%
- 14. 14 > Economic growth will accelerate in 2015 supported by consumer demand > Promising sectors: – Construction materials / durable goods – Aerospace – Agriculture – Food and beverage – Automotive – Defence and security – Oil & gas United States
- 15. 15 > Fastest growth of all the emerging economies > Second largest economy in the world > Promising sectors: – Aerospace & defence – Agriculture, food & beverages – Automotive – Electric power equipment & services – Information & communications technologies – Metals, minerals & related equipment, services & technology – Rail & urban transit China
- 16. 16 > New free trade agreement with Canada > 50 million people > Fourth largest economy in Asia > Accelerating economy, growth rate of 4.0 for 2015 > Industries to benefit from the FTA: – Agriculture – Fish and seafood – Forest products – Industrial goods South Korea
- 18. 18 Buying online of Canadians buy products or services online 41%
- 19. 19 Buying online of Canadian enterprises purchased goods or services online in 2013 47%
- 20. 20 Digital is changing the game, giving small businesses access to billions of consumers
- 24. 24 of Canadian SMEs have a website
- 26. 26 > We are transitioning to a period of growth > Canadian businesses who export, experience higher growth > Digital technologies enable even the smallest company to be a “micromultinational” that sells and sources products, services, and ideas across borders Conclusion
- 27. 27 Thank you BDC BDC Entrepreneur BDC_News Follow us: bdc.ca @PierreCleroux
Editor's Notes
- This growth in the world represent opportunities for Canadian busnesses
- La combinaison d’un croissance anticipée très faible des heures travaillées (à cause du vieillissement), soit de 0.3%, et d’une croissance annuelle de la productivité du travail entre 1,2% et 1,7% (tendance historique), implique que le potentiel de croissance de l’économie canadienne demeurera entre 1,5% et 2,0% d’ici 2030.
- Hyper Growth Firms: those with at least 150 percent growth in employment over 4 years; Strong Growth Firms: those with between 50 and 150 percent growth in employment over 4 years;
- Exports of crude oil represent 70.8% of total Alberta’s exports Exports of refined petroleum represent 2.5% of Alberta’s exports
- 98 % of businesses in Canada are small and medium sized businesses I will give a small business perspective
- 98 % of businesses in Canada are small and medium sized businesses I will give a small business perspective
- Corey manufactures specialize food for hunting dog from New Brunswick They have about 40 employees They distribute their pet food through traditional channels in Canada and the US But few years ago, they put together a website They don’t sell online, but the website give information about their products They got phone calls from businesses in different countries about their high quality pet food They are now selling in 27 different countries Biggest clients are in China, Russia, and Mexico Digitalization give an amazing opportunity to small businesses by reducing the cost of distribution and marketing
- Corey manufactures specialize food for hunting dog from New Brunswick They have about 40 employees They distribute their pet food through traditional channels in Canada and the US But few years ago, they put together a website They don’t sell online, but the website give information about their products They got phone calls from businesses in different countries about their high quality pet food They are now selling in 27 different countries Biggest clients are in China, Russia, and Mexico Digitalization give an amazing opportunity to small businesses by reducing the cost of distribution and marketing
- Corey manufactures specialize food for hunting dog from New Brunswick They have about 40 employees They distribute their pet food through traditional channels in Canada and the US But few years ago, they put together a website They don’t sell online, but the website give information about their products They got phone calls from businesses in different countries about their high quality pet food They are now selling in 27 different countries Biggest clients are in China, Russia, and Mexico Digitalization give an amazing opportunity to small businesses by reducing the cost of distribution and marketing