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Jordan Economic Insight
2015
1
Contents Executive Summary
Background 2
Recent Developments 3
Macroeconomic Outlook 5
Key Macroeconomic Indicators 7
QNB Economics Publications 8
QNB Group International Network 9
A. Recent Developments (2014-15)
 Real GDP grew 3.1% in 2014 (2.8% in 2013), driven by a continued
recovery in mining and quarrying as well as strong growth in
agriculture and construction
 Inflation moderated to 2.9% in 2014 (4.8% in 2013) and turned
negative in March 2015 (-1.2%) as the impact from the liberalisation of
fuel prices and higher electricity tariffs subsided and foreign inflation
turned negative
 The current account deficit narrowed to an estimated 6.8% of GDP in
2014 (10.3% in 2013) as higher grants and stronger export receipts more
than offset increased energy import costs due to lower gas from Egypt
 The fiscal deficit narrowed to 2.3% of GDP in 2014 (5.6% in 2013),
reflecting fiscal consolidation supported by the on-going IMF
programme and higher foreign grants
 Higher confidence in the Jordanian dinar (JOD) increased international
reserves to USD14.1bn at end-2014
 The banking sector continues to recover, reflecting higher confidence in
the JOD: deposits continued to grow robustly (9.7%) while lending grew
moderately (4.6%) as banks preferred to buy government bonds rather
than to lend, resulting in a lower loan to deposit ratio (65.5%); banks
continued to clean up their balance sheets of legacy non-performing
loans (NPLs), leading to a further improvement in profitability
B. Macroeconomic Outlook (2015-17)
 Despite a difficult geopolitical context and a weak global economy,
Jordan continues to recover helped by lower oil prices, IMF support and
GCC grants
 Real GDP growth is expected to accelerate to 4.0% in 2015, mainly
driven by construction, mining exports (partly through bilateral
agreements with India) as well as higher government investment;
growth is projected to gather further momentum in 2016 (4.3%) and
2017 (4.5%) as economic reforms continue to bear fruit
 Lower energy and food prices are expected to lead inflation to slow to
an average 0.8% in 2015, which will more than offset the further
planned increase in electricity tariffs; a projected rise in global
commodity prices in 2016-17 and stronger domestic demand are
expected to push inflation up to 2.0% in 2016 and 2.5% in 2017
 The current account deficit is projected to narrow to 2.9% of GDP in
2015, primarily from lower energy prices as well as higher export
growth from the mining sector; the deficit is expected to widen again in
2016 (3.9% of GDP) and in 2017 (4.7% of GDP) as energy prices rebound
 Higher taxes and lower expenditures should further narrow the fiscal
deficit in 2015 (2.1% of GDP) while net public debt is likely to gradually
decline, following a peak at end-2014 (80.3% of GDP)
 Deposit growth is likely to continue to slow in 2015 (5.2%) on lower
inflation, but rebound in 2016 (6.9%) and 2017 (7.4%) on stronger
economic growth and higher inflation; lending growth is expected to
rebound in 2015 (7.4%), 2016 (8.9%) and 2017 (9.5%) as lower policy
rates and reduced government financing needs push banks to increase
their lending book; profitability should rise on further declines in NPLs
and continued high capitalisation ratios
Joannes Mongardini
Head of Economics
+974 4453 4412
joannes.mongardini@qnb.com
Rory Fyfe
Senior Economist
+974 4453 4643
rory.fyfe@qnb.com
Ehsan Khoman
Economist
+974 4453 4423
ehsan.khoman@qnb.com
Hamda Al–Thani
Economist
+974 4453 4646
hamda.althani@qnb.com
Ziad Daoud
Economist
+974 4453 4642
ziad.daoud@qnb.com
Economics Team
economics@qnb.com
Editorial closing: 3 May 2015
2
Background
Jordan is a diversified open economy with high human
capital
Jordan has managed to integrate itself well into the global
economy. It is one of the smaller economies in the Middle
East and North Africa (MENA) region, with a GDP per
capita of USD11.9k in 2014 on purchasing power parity
(PPP) basis. The structure of the economy has been
relatively stable in recent years and remains dominated by
the services sector. Jordan’s Human Development Index
(HDI) has been improving over time (77th
out of 187
countries in 2014) and is among the highest in the MENA
region. Jordan has leveraged this human capital in sectors
such as information technology, medicine and
pharmaceuticals. A large portion of Jordanians are
currently working in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)
countries, and thus provides a steady inflow of
remittances to the economy.
GDP Per Capita of Selected MENA Countries (2014)
(USD k on a PPP basis)
Sources: International Monetary Fund (IMF) and
QNB Group analysis
The economy continues to recover, but remains well
below its long-term growth trajectory
After a period of strong growth up to 2009, the global
financial crisis and exogenous shocks considerably
impacted Jordan’s economy. In the period 2003-09, where
growth averaged 7.6%, the economy benefitted from a
favourable economic environment and structural reforms,
thereby attracting large foreign direct investments (FDI).1
The subsequent global financial crisis and regional unrest
hit the economy hard, with growth averaging only 2.8%
between 2010-14. The slow pick-up in economic activity
is partly due to numerous exogenous shocks. On the one
hand, the disruption of cheap gas flows from Egypt has
led to higher energy prices. On the other hand, the large
influx of Syrian refugees (11.2% of the total population in
2014) and Iraqi refugees (0.9% of the total population in
2014) have placed significant strains on already limited
fiscal and natural resources. Overall, Jordan is currently
recovering towards its long-term average growth of 5.3%.
Real GDP Growth
(%, year on year)
Sources: Jordan Department of Statistics (DoS) and
QNB Group analysis
Improving the business environment remains a key
challenge to increasing economic growth
The business environment in Jordan still remains a
considerable constraint on higher growth. The World
Bank Ease of Doing Business Index ranks Jordan 117th
out
of 189 countries. Key obstacles remain getting access to
credit (185th
) as well as protecting investors (154th
). The
government is addressing some of these obstacles
through a number of structural reforms. The minimum
capital requirements for starting a business were reduced
in 2012 and cross-border trade has been facilitated. An
investment promotion law setting up a one-stop shop for
investors was approved by parliament in May 2014. In
addition, a license was granted for the first private sector
credit bureau to start operating in 2015. New laws on
insolvency and bankruptcy are currently being reviewed.
Ease of Doing Business (2015)
(Rank 1 = highest score; Ranking out of 189 countries)
Sources: World Bank Ease of Doing Business Index and
QNB Group analysis
1
This is the compounded annual growth rate (CAGR), which is a geometric mean. In general, unless otherwise specified, all multi-year growth rates mentioned
in this report will be CAGRs rather than arithmetic averages.
7.6 10.9 11.3 11.9 14.6 18.0
51.7 52.2
64.5
143.4
Morocco
Egypt
Tunisia
Iraq
Lebanon
Bahrain
KSA
UAE
Qatar
Jordan
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
CAGR 7.6%
CAGR 2.8 %
22
49 50 53 60 71
104 112 117
156
UAE
KSA
Qatar
Bahrain
Tunisia
Morocco
Lebanon
Egypt
Iraq
Jordan
3
Recent Developments (2014-15)
Economic growth continues to recover despite the difficult
regional context
Real GDP rose to 3.1% in 2014 with support from the IMF
and GCC grants. Mining and quarrying was the strongest
growing sector, expanding by 27.6%. In particular,
phosphate and potash production volumes reached their
highest level since 2010 due to strong demand from China
and India. Owing to favourable weather conditions, the
second fastest sector was agriculture, expanding by 7.6%.
Additionally, construction activity also expanded at a
brisk pace (6.8%), driven by an increase in government
capital expenditure financed by GCC grants. Wholesale
and retail trade grew by 3.9% as Iraqi and Syrian refugees
helped boost private consumption.
Real GDP Growth
(%, year on year)
Sources: DoS and QNB Group analysis
Inflation turned negative in March 2015 on lower global
commodity prices
Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation continues its
downward trajectory. The overall CPI inflation basket
consists of foreign inflation (59% of total weight), driven
mainly by energy imports, and domestic inflation (41% of
total weight), driven mainly by housing and clothing.2
Jordan is temporarily experiencing a period of deflation at
-1.2% year-on-year in March 2015 (average of 2.9% in
2014). This is due to the pass-through effects of lower oil
prices. Transportation costs, which include fuel and
energy, witnessed the sharpest drop in March 2015 (-15.8%
year-on-year), followed by food (0.1% year-on-year).
Counterbalancing the negative foreign inflation, the influx
of Iraqi and Syrian refugees continued to put upward
pressure on domestic inflation in March 2015, particularly
clothing and footwear (6.7% year-on-year) and housing
(1.4% year-on-year).
CPI Inflation
(% change, year-on-year; weights given in brackets)
Sources: DoS and QNB Group analysis
The current account deficit continues to narrow as
stronger export receipts and higher grants more than offset
increased energy import costs
The current account deficit narrowed to 6.8% of GDP in
2014 (10.3% in 2013). Despite the disruption of trade routes
stemming from the Iraqi and Syrian conflict, exports grew
in 2014, led by apparel, fertiliser and pharmaceutical
products. This outpaced the larger import bill, mainly
driven by higher energy prices due to the disruptions to
cheaper gas from Egypt. Furthermore, higher grants (5.3%
of GDP) in 2014 also helped narrow the current account
deficit. Notwithstanding the challenging regional
backdrop, the capital and financial account surplus
remained high in 2014 (12.0% of GDP) reflecting the higher
confidence in the JOD and stronger FDI inflows (4.7% of
GDP).
Balance of Payments
(% of GDP and months of import cover)
Sources: Central Bank of Jordan (CBJ) and QNB Group analysis
2
Foreign inflation comprises food and non-alcoholic beverages; alcohol and tobacco and cigarettes; clothing and footwear; household furnishings and
equipment; and transportation. Domestic inflation comprises housing; health; communication; culture and recreation; education; restaurants and hotels; and
other goods and services.
2.3
2.6 2.6 2.8
3.1
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
-1.2
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
1/12
4/12
7/12
10/12
1/13
4/13
7/13
10/13
1/14
4/14
7/14
10/14
1/15
Domestic (41%) Foreign (59%) Total
-7.1
-10.3
-15.2
-10.3
-6.8
7.0
5.4 6.8
12.8 12.0
6.9
5.5
3.3
5.8
7.1
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Current Account (% of GDP)
Capital and Financial Account (% of GDP)
International Reserves (months of import cover)
4
International reserves continue to rise on higher
confidence in the JOD
Higher confidence in the JOD has led the central bank to
continue accumulating international reserves. Jordan’s
long-standing currency peg against the US dollar rests on
the maintenance of a high level of international reserves.
Improved confidence in the JOD, driven by an
improvement in Jordan’s economic indicators, has led to a
robust increase in Jordanian deposits and a corresponding
decline in foreign currency deposits. This reflects the
overall improvement in investor sentiment towards the
Jordanian economy. As a result, the CBJ further
accumulated international reserves to USD14.1bn at end-
2014 (7.1 months of import cover). This, combined with
lower inflation levels, has prompted the CBJ to reduce its
overnight deposit rate twice in 2014 and cut it further to
1.75% in February 2015, to encourage bank lending and
support economic growth.
International Reserves and Currency Substitution
(USD bn and %)
* Currency substitution is defined as the deposits of
foreign currency as a percentage of total deposits
Sources: CBJ and QNB Group analysis
Higher grants and one-off revenues from the sale of mobile
licences reduced the fiscal deficit in 2014
The fiscal deficit narrowed further to 2.3% of GDP in 2014
(5.6% in 2013), reflecting fiscal consolidation supported by
the on-going IMF programme and grants. Government
revenues increased to 28.4% of GDP, supported by reforms
such as the elimination of exemptions from value added
taxes (VAT), tax hikes on alcohol and cigarettes as well as
one-off revenues from the sale of mobile licences. In
addition, higher external grants, including the USD5bn
pledged by GCC states, contributed to narrowing the deficit
in 2014. Government spending rose to 30.7% of GDP, partly
reflecting continuing losses from the National Electric and
Power Company (NEPCO). Interruptions in gas supplies
from Egypt forced Jordan to run its power plants primarily
on more costly heavy fuel in 2014, thus increasing the cost
of producing electricity. The government has been
financing NEPCO losses through higher net public debt,
which reached 80.3% of GDP at end-2014.
Fiscal Balance
(% of GDP)
Sources: CBJ, Jordan Ministry of Finance (MoF) and QNB Group
analysis
The banking sector expanded broadly in line with the
overall economy in 2014
Jordanian banks continue to be stable, liquid and
adequately capitalised despite the difficult regional
context. Notwithstanding robust deposit growth (9.7%),
lending grew moderately (4.8%) in 2014 as banks preferred
to buy government bonds rather than lend. Additionally,
disruptions in trade to Iraq and Syria caused by the on-
going regional context resulted in lower lending to the
trade and services sector. As a result, the loan to deposit
ratio fell significantly in 2014 (65.6%). Banks have
continued to clean up their balance sheets of legacy non-
performing loans (NPLs), leading to a moderate pickup in
profitability.
Banking Sector
(% change; year-on-year)
Sources: CBJ and QNB Group analysis
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1/11
5/11
9/11
1/12
5/12
9/12
1/13
5/13
9/13
1/14
5/14
9/14
1/15
International Reserves (bn USD) (Left Axis)
Currency Substitution* (Right Axis)
24.9
26.4
23.0
24.1
28.4
30.4
33.2
31.3
29.7
30.7
-5.6
-6.8
-8.3
-5.6
-2.3
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Revenue Expenditure Fiscal Balance
9.4%
7.8%
4.2%
9.0%
4.8%
10.9%
8.3%
2.4%
10.5%
9.7%
8.5%
9.7%
12.5%
6.2%
4.8%
64.2%
65.0%
71.4%
68.6%
65.6%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Assets Deposits
Loans Loans to Deposit Ratio
5
Macroeconomic Outlook (2015-17)
Despite a worsening geopolitical context and a weak
global economy, Jordan is likely to continue to recover
Real GDP growth is expected to accelerate to 4.0% in 2015
and gather further momentum in 2016 (4.3%) and 2017
(4.5%) as economic reforms continue to bear fruit. Key
contributors to growth are likely to be construction,
mining exports and higher government investment. A
large number of construction projects are underway,
including two new major projects in Aqaba and the Dead
Sea as well as the Jordan-Saudi Arabia rail link. Moreover,
a bilateral agreement with India for Jordanian phosphates
will further boost mining exports over the medium term.
Government investment into the expansion of the
electricity grid and development of both conventional and
renewable energy (mainly solar and wind) sectors will
foster growth. Additionally, sustained lower energy prices
will likely increase competitiveness and domestic demand,
leading to higher economic growth.
Real GDP Growth
(%, year on year)
Sources: DoS and QNB Group analysis and forecasts
CPI inflation is expected to slow in 2015 on lower
commodity prices but recover in 2016-17
We expect CPI inflation to decline to 0.8% in 2015. Lower
global commodity prices are expected to lead to negative
foreign inflation this year. Given that Eurozone states are
a major source of Jordanian imports (26.7% of total
imports in 2014), the weak euro against the USD (to which
the JOD is pegged) will further lower foreign inflation.
Domestic inflation is likely to remain moderate as further
planned electricity price increases are expected to affect
consumer prices. The continued presence of refugees in
Jordan is also expected to further add to domestic
inflation, in particular healthcare and housing. Going
forward, we project overall inflation to recover to 2.0% in
2016 and 2.5% in 2017 on the back of a gradual pickup in
foreign inflation stemming from higher global commodity
prices.
CPI Inflation
(% average annual change; weights given in brackets)
Sources: DoS and QNB Group analysis and forecasts
Lower energy prices and higher exports will narrow the
current account deficit temporarily in 2015, but widen in
2016-17 once energy prices rebound
The current account deficit is projected to narrow to 2.9%
of GDP in 2015. This largely reflects a reduction in the
energy import bill, supported by lower oil prices and the
start of liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports through the
new terminal at the port of Aqaba starting in mid-2015.
Meanwhile, a new bilateral agreement with India for
Jordanian phosphate exports as well as a projected
recovery in the price of potash is expected to lead to higher
export growth from the mining sector. Looking ahead, the
narrowing of the current account deficit is expected to be
partially reversed in 2016 (3.9% of GDP) and in 2017 (4.7%
of GDP) as oil prices are projected to gradually increase and
average USD64.1/b in 2016 and USD69.0/b in 2017.
Current Account
(% of GDP)
Sources: CBJ and QNB Group analysis and forecasts
3.1
4.0
4.3 4.5
2014 2015f 2016f 2017f
3.7
2.7
2.8
3.0
2.3
-0.6
1.5
2.1
2.9
0.8
2.0
2.5
2014 2015f 2016f 2017f
Domestic (41%) Foreign (59%) Total
43.3
42.9 43.3 43.5
69.2
63.7
64.8 65.5
-6.8
-2.9
-3.9
-4.7
2014 2015f 2016f 2017f
Exports Imports Current account balance
6
Higher taxes and lower energy costs should alleviate the
fiscal deficit and put public debt on a downward trend
Higher taxes and lower energy costs should narrow the
fiscal deficit in 2015 (2.1% of GDP). On the revenue side,
the new income tax law will raise tax rates, reduce the
basic exemption allowances and introduce a tax on the
foreign branches of Jordanian companies. On the
expenditure side, the government has recently imposed a
cap on wages and reduced subsidies. Lower oil prices will
also reduce losses at NEPCO and thus the necessary
transfers from the central government. As energy prices
recover, however, the fiscal deficit is expected to widen
again to 2.8% of GDP in 2016 and 3.5% in 2017. Structural
fiscal reforms are also advancing, with a focus on
improving tax administration, social assistance and public
financial management. These reforms are likely to put the
public debt to GDP ratio on a sustainable downward trend.
Fiscal Balance
(% of GDP)
Sources: CBJ, MoF and QNB Group analysis and forecasts
The government’s latest energy strategy is expected to
reduce dependence on more expensive oil imports
To diversify its energy mix, the authorities developed a
national strategic plan in 2013 to reduce NEPCO losses.
Due to shortfalls in gas supplies from Egypt, the share of
natural gas in the total energy supply fell from 31% in
2010 to an estimated 8% in 2014. This has forced the
government to shift to more expensive heavy fuel oil
imports. In order to reverse this trend, the government is
implementing a national strategic plan that aims to shift
away from more expensive oil imports. Specifically, the
strategy aims to: (i) switch electricity production from
heavy fuel oil to LNG through a terminal that is expected
to become operational in May 2015; (ii) develop domestic
shale oil and renewable energy sources such as solar and
wind; and (iii) build a nuclear power station that would
start operations by 2022. These projects, particularly the
expected LNG imports, are likely to reduce the share of oil
imports over the medium term to less than half of the total
energy supply.
Energy Supply By Source
(% shares)
Sources: Jordan Ministry of Energy Minerals and Resources and
QNB Group analysis and forecasts
The banking sector is expected to continue growing
broadly in line with the economy
Deposit growth is likely to slow in 2015 (5.2%) on lower
inflation, but rebound in 2016 (6.9%) and 2017 (7.4%) on
stronger economic growth and higher inflation. Lending
growth is expected to recover in 2015 (7.4%), 2016 (8.9%)
and 2017 (9.5%) as lower government bond rates and
reduced government financing needs push banks to
increase their lending book. As such, the loan to deposit
ratio is projected to rise gradually over the medium term.
Banking assets are projected to grow in line with nominal
GDP. Profitability should rise on further declines in NPLs
and already high capitalisation ratios. Going forward, a
key risk stems from the expected normalisation in US
interest rates, which may result in higher Jordanian policy
rates and thus compress banks’ net interest margins
(NIMs).
Banking Sector
(% change; year-on-year)
Sources: CBJ and QNB Group analysis and forecasts
28.4
26.4 26.7
27.030.7
28.5
29.5
30.5
-2.3 -2.1
-2.8
-3.5
2014 2015f 2016f 2017f
Revenue Expenditure Fiscal Balance
24%
39%
42%
65%
82%
88% 88% 88% 61% 51% 49%
31%
12%
8% 8% 8% 10%
5%
5%
2%
2%
2%
2%
2010 2011 2012 2013e 2014e 2015f 2016f 2017f
LNG Oil
Natural Gas Electricity
Renewable Energy
4.8%
5.9%
7.4%
8.0%
9.7%
5.2%
6.9%
7.4%
4.8%
7.4%
8.9%
9.5%
65.6%
66.9%
68.2%
69.5%
2014 2015f 2016f 2017f
Assets Deposits
Loans Loans to Deposit Ratio
7
Key Macroeconomic Indicators
* For 2014, one-off revenues related to mobile licenses boosted total revenues by an estimated 1.0% of GDP
** For 2014, credit growth excludes the Murabahat extended by Islamic banks outside Jordan in JOD
Sources: Bloomberg, BP, CBJ, DOS, EIU, IMF and QNB Group analysis and forecasts
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015f 2016f 2017f
Real sector indicators
Real GDP growth (%) 2.3 2.6 2.6 2.8 3.1 4.0 4.3 4.5
Nominal GDP (bn USD) 26.5 28.9 31.0 33.6 35.9 37.4 39.7 42.2
Growth (%) 10.9 9.1 7.3 8.6 6.6 4.3 6.0 6.5
GDP per capita (PPP, USD k) 10.9 11.2 11.4 11.7 11.9 12.2 12.7 13.2
Consumer price index inflation (%) 4.8 4.2 4.5 4.8 2.9 0.8 2.0 2.5
Domestic (41% of basket) 3.1 3.3 3.4 5.0 3.7 2.7 2.8 3.0
Foreign (59% of basket) 6.4 4.8 5.3 4.7 2.3 -0.6 1.5 2.1
External sector (% of GDP)
Current account balance -7.1 -10.3 -15.2 -10.3 -6.8 -2.9 -3.9 -4.7
Goods and services balance -20.8 -26.2 -28.0 -29.5 -25.9 -20.8 -21.5 -22.0
Exports 48.3 47.7 46.3 42.5 43.3 42.9 43.3 43.5
Imports -69.0 -73.9 -74.3 -72.0 -69.2 -63.7 -64.8 -65.5
Capital and Financial account balance 7.0 5.4 6.8 12.8 12.0 8.2 6.8 5.4
International reserves (prospective import cover) 6.9 5.5 3.3 5.8 7.1 7.5 7.5 7.5
External debt 47.6 50.2 56.9 61.5 63.2 64.1 63.1 63.9
Budget balance (% of GDP) -5.6 -6.8 -8.3 -5.6 -2.3 -2.1 -2.8 -3.5
Revenue* 24.9 26.4 23.0 24.1 28.4 26.4 26.7 27.0
Expenditure 30.4 33.2 31.3 29.7 30.7 28.5 29.5 30.5
Public debt 61.1 65.5 75.5 80.1 80.3 78.6 76.3 74.1
Monetary indicators
M2 growth 11.5 8.1 3.4 9.7 6.9 5.3 7.0 7.5
Policy Rate (%) 4.3 4.4 5.0 4.8 4.3 n.a. n.a. n.a.
Exchange rate USD:JOD (av) 0.709 0.709 0.709 0.709 0.709 0.709 0.709 0.709
Banking indicators (%)
Return on equity 8.8 8.3 8.6 9.9 11.4 n.a. n.a. n.a.
NPL ratio 8.2 8.5 7.7 7.0 5.6 5.0 4.5 4.2
Capital adequacy ratio 20.3 19.3 19.0 18.4 18.6 n.a. n.a. n.a.
Asset growth 9.4 7.8 4.2 9.0 4.8 5.9 7.4 8.0
Credit growth** 8.5 9.7 12.5 6.2 4.8 7.4 8.9 9.5
Deposit growth 10.9 8.3 2.4 10.5 9.7 5.2 6.9 7.4
Loan to deposit ratio 64.2 65.0 71.4 68.6 65.6 66.9 68.2 69.5
Memorandum items
Population (m) 6.1 6.2 6.4 6.5 6.7 6.8 7.0 7.1
Growth (%) 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2
Average Brent Crude Oil Price (USD/b) 79.8 111.0 111.8 108.7 99.7 56.2 64.1 69.0
8
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whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses arising from its use. Where an opinion is expressed, unless otherwise
cited, it is that of the authors which does not coincide with that of any other party, and such opinions may not be
attributed to any other party.
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QNBKuwait@qnb.com
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QNBSouthSudan@qnb.com
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Fax: +249 183 48 6666
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10
QNB Subsidiaries and Associate Companies
Algeria
The Housing Bank for Trade
and Finance (HBTF)
Tel: +213 2191881/2
Fax: +213 21918878
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Mansour Bank
Associate Company
P.O. Box: 3162
Al Alawiya Post Office
Al Wihda District Baghdad
Iraq
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Fax: +964 1 7175514
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3 Rue des Alpes
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1211 Genève-1 Mont Blanc
Switzerland
Tel: +41 22907 7070
Fax: +41 22907 7071
Bahrain
The Housing Bank for Trade
and Finance (HBTF)
Tel: +973 17225227
Fax: +973 17227225
Jordan
The Housing Bank for Trade
and Finance (HBTF)
Associate Company
P.O. Box: 7693
Postal Code 11118 Amman
Jordan
Tel: +962 6 5200400
Fax: +962 6 5678121
Syria
QNB Syria
Subsidiary
Baghdad Street
P.O. Box: 33000 Damascus
Syria
Tel: +963 11-2290 1000
Fax: +963 11-44 32221
Egypt
QNB ALAHLI
Dar Champollion
5 Champollion St, Downtown 2664
Cairo
Egypt
Tel: +202 2770 7000
Fax: +202 2770 7099
Info.QNBAA@QNBALAHLI.COM
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Bank of Commerce and Development
BCD Tower, Gamal A Nasser Street
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Benghazi
Libya
Tel: +218 619 080 230
Fax: +218 619 097 115
www.bcd.ly
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QNB Tunisia
Associate Company
Rue de la cité des sciences
P.O. Box: 320 – 1080 Tunis Cedex
Tunisia
Tel: +216 7171 3555
Fax: +216 7171 3111
www.tqb.com.tn
India
QNB India Private Limited
802 TCG Financial Centre
Bandra Kurla Complex
Bandra East
Mumbai 400 051
India
Tel: + 91 22 26525613
QNBindia@qnb.com
Palestine
The Housing Bank for Trade
and Finance (HBTF)
Tel: +970 2 2986270
Fax: +970 2 2986275
UAE
Commercial Bank International p.s.c
Associate Company
P.O. Box: 4449, Dubai,
Al Riqqa Street, Deira
UAE
Tel: +971 04 2275265
Fax: +971 04 2279038
Indonesia
QNB Indonesia Tower, 18 Parc
Jl. Jendral Sudirman Kav.
52-53 Jakarta 12190
Tel : +62 21 515 5155
Fax : +62 21 515 5388
qnbkesawan.co.id
Qatar
Al Jazeera Finance Company
Associate Company
P.O. Box: 22310 Doha
Qatar
Tel: +974 4468 2812
Fax: +974 4468 2616
Qatar National Bank S.A.Q
P.O. Box 1000, Doha, Qatar
Tel: +974 4440 7407
Fax: +974 4441 3753
qnb.com

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Jordan Economic Insight 2015: GDP Growth Accelerates as Inflation Turns Negative

  • 2. 1 Contents Executive Summary Background 2 Recent Developments 3 Macroeconomic Outlook 5 Key Macroeconomic Indicators 7 QNB Economics Publications 8 QNB Group International Network 9 A. Recent Developments (2014-15)  Real GDP grew 3.1% in 2014 (2.8% in 2013), driven by a continued recovery in mining and quarrying as well as strong growth in agriculture and construction  Inflation moderated to 2.9% in 2014 (4.8% in 2013) and turned negative in March 2015 (-1.2%) as the impact from the liberalisation of fuel prices and higher electricity tariffs subsided and foreign inflation turned negative  The current account deficit narrowed to an estimated 6.8% of GDP in 2014 (10.3% in 2013) as higher grants and stronger export receipts more than offset increased energy import costs due to lower gas from Egypt  The fiscal deficit narrowed to 2.3% of GDP in 2014 (5.6% in 2013), reflecting fiscal consolidation supported by the on-going IMF programme and higher foreign grants  Higher confidence in the Jordanian dinar (JOD) increased international reserves to USD14.1bn at end-2014  The banking sector continues to recover, reflecting higher confidence in the JOD: deposits continued to grow robustly (9.7%) while lending grew moderately (4.6%) as banks preferred to buy government bonds rather than to lend, resulting in a lower loan to deposit ratio (65.5%); banks continued to clean up their balance sheets of legacy non-performing loans (NPLs), leading to a further improvement in profitability B. Macroeconomic Outlook (2015-17)  Despite a difficult geopolitical context and a weak global economy, Jordan continues to recover helped by lower oil prices, IMF support and GCC grants  Real GDP growth is expected to accelerate to 4.0% in 2015, mainly driven by construction, mining exports (partly through bilateral agreements with India) as well as higher government investment; growth is projected to gather further momentum in 2016 (4.3%) and 2017 (4.5%) as economic reforms continue to bear fruit  Lower energy and food prices are expected to lead inflation to slow to an average 0.8% in 2015, which will more than offset the further planned increase in electricity tariffs; a projected rise in global commodity prices in 2016-17 and stronger domestic demand are expected to push inflation up to 2.0% in 2016 and 2.5% in 2017  The current account deficit is projected to narrow to 2.9% of GDP in 2015, primarily from lower energy prices as well as higher export growth from the mining sector; the deficit is expected to widen again in 2016 (3.9% of GDP) and in 2017 (4.7% of GDP) as energy prices rebound  Higher taxes and lower expenditures should further narrow the fiscal deficit in 2015 (2.1% of GDP) while net public debt is likely to gradually decline, following a peak at end-2014 (80.3% of GDP)  Deposit growth is likely to continue to slow in 2015 (5.2%) on lower inflation, but rebound in 2016 (6.9%) and 2017 (7.4%) on stronger economic growth and higher inflation; lending growth is expected to rebound in 2015 (7.4%), 2016 (8.9%) and 2017 (9.5%) as lower policy rates and reduced government financing needs push banks to increase their lending book; profitability should rise on further declines in NPLs and continued high capitalisation ratios Joannes Mongardini Head of Economics +974 4453 4412 joannes.mongardini@qnb.com Rory Fyfe Senior Economist +974 4453 4643 rory.fyfe@qnb.com Ehsan Khoman Economist +974 4453 4423 ehsan.khoman@qnb.com Hamda Al–Thani Economist +974 4453 4646 hamda.althani@qnb.com Ziad Daoud Economist +974 4453 4642 ziad.daoud@qnb.com Economics Team economics@qnb.com Editorial closing: 3 May 2015
  • 3. 2 Background Jordan is a diversified open economy with high human capital Jordan has managed to integrate itself well into the global economy. It is one of the smaller economies in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, with a GDP per capita of USD11.9k in 2014 on purchasing power parity (PPP) basis. The structure of the economy has been relatively stable in recent years and remains dominated by the services sector. Jordan’s Human Development Index (HDI) has been improving over time (77th out of 187 countries in 2014) and is among the highest in the MENA region. Jordan has leveraged this human capital in sectors such as information technology, medicine and pharmaceuticals. A large portion of Jordanians are currently working in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, and thus provides a steady inflow of remittances to the economy. GDP Per Capita of Selected MENA Countries (2014) (USD k on a PPP basis) Sources: International Monetary Fund (IMF) and QNB Group analysis The economy continues to recover, but remains well below its long-term growth trajectory After a period of strong growth up to 2009, the global financial crisis and exogenous shocks considerably impacted Jordan’s economy. In the period 2003-09, where growth averaged 7.6%, the economy benefitted from a favourable economic environment and structural reforms, thereby attracting large foreign direct investments (FDI).1 The subsequent global financial crisis and regional unrest hit the economy hard, with growth averaging only 2.8% between 2010-14. The slow pick-up in economic activity is partly due to numerous exogenous shocks. On the one hand, the disruption of cheap gas flows from Egypt has led to higher energy prices. On the other hand, the large influx of Syrian refugees (11.2% of the total population in 2014) and Iraqi refugees (0.9% of the total population in 2014) have placed significant strains on already limited fiscal and natural resources. Overall, Jordan is currently recovering towards its long-term average growth of 5.3%. Real GDP Growth (%, year on year) Sources: Jordan Department of Statistics (DoS) and QNB Group analysis Improving the business environment remains a key challenge to increasing economic growth The business environment in Jordan still remains a considerable constraint on higher growth. The World Bank Ease of Doing Business Index ranks Jordan 117th out of 189 countries. Key obstacles remain getting access to credit (185th ) as well as protecting investors (154th ). The government is addressing some of these obstacles through a number of structural reforms. The minimum capital requirements for starting a business were reduced in 2012 and cross-border trade has been facilitated. An investment promotion law setting up a one-stop shop for investors was approved by parliament in May 2014. In addition, a license was granted for the first private sector credit bureau to start operating in 2015. New laws on insolvency and bankruptcy are currently being reviewed. Ease of Doing Business (2015) (Rank 1 = highest score; Ranking out of 189 countries) Sources: World Bank Ease of Doing Business Index and QNB Group analysis 1 This is the compounded annual growth rate (CAGR), which is a geometric mean. In general, unless otherwise specified, all multi-year growth rates mentioned in this report will be CAGRs rather than arithmetic averages. 7.6 10.9 11.3 11.9 14.6 18.0 51.7 52.2 64.5 143.4 Morocco Egypt Tunisia Iraq Lebanon Bahrain KSA UAE Qatar Jordan 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 CAGR 7.6% CAGR 2.8 % 22 49 50 53 60 71 104 112 117 156 UAE KSA Qatar Bahrain Tunisia Morocco Lebanon Egypt Iraq Jordan
  • 4. 3 Recent Developments (2014-15) Economic growth continues to recover despite the difficult regional context Real GDP rose to 3.1% in 2014 with support from the IMF and GCC grants. Mining and quarrying was the strongest growing sector, expanding by 27.6%. In particular, phosphate and potash production volumes reached their highest level since 2010 due to strong demand from China and India. Owing to favourable weather conditions, the second fastest sector was agriculture, expanding by 7.6%. Additionally, construction activity also expanded at a brisk pace (6.8%), driven by an increase in government capital expenditure financed by GCC grants. Wholesale and retail trade grew by 3.9% as Iraqi and Syrian refugees helped boost private consumption. Real GDP Growth (%, year on year) Sources: DoS and QNB Group analysis Inflation turned negative in March 2015 on lower global commodity prices Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation continues its downward trajectory. The overall CPI inflation basket consists of foreign inflation (59% of total weight), driven mainly by energy imports, and domestic inflation (41% of total weight), driven mainly by housing and clothing.2 Jordan is temporarily experiencing a period of deflation at -1.2% year-on-year in March 2015 (average of 2.9% in 2014). This is due to the pass-through effects of lower oil prices. Transportation costs, which include fuel and energy, witnessed the sharpest drop in March 2015 (-15.8% year-on-year), followed by food (0.1% year-on-year). Counterbalancing the negative foreign inflation, the influx of Iraqi and Syrian refugees continued to put upward pressure on domestic inflation in March 2015, particularly clothing and footwear (6.7% year-on-year) and housing (1.4% year-on-year). CPI Inflation (% change, year-on-year; weights given in brackets) Sources: DoS and QNB Group analysis The current account deficit continues to narrow as stronger export receipts and higher grants more than offset increased energy import costs The current account deficit narrowed to 6.8% of GDP in 2014 (10.3% in 2013). Despite the disruption of trade routes stemming from the Iraqi and Syrian conflict, exports grew in 2014, led by apparel, fertiliser and pharmaceutical products. This outpaced the larger import bill, mainly driven by higher energy prices due to the disruptions to cheaper gas from Egypt. Furthermore, higher grants (5.3% of GDP) in 2014 also helped narrow the current account deficit. Notwithstanding the challenging regional backdrop, the capital and financial account surplus remained high in 2014 (12.0% of GDP) reflecting the higher confidence in the JOD and stronger FDI inflows (4.7% of GDP). Balance of Payments (% of GDP and months of import cover) Sources: Central Bank of Jordan (CBJ) and QNB Group analysis 2 Foreign inflation comprises food and non-alcoholic beverages; alcohol and tobacco and cigarettes; clothing and footwear; household furnishings and equipment; and transportation. Domestic inflation comprises housing; health; communication; culture and recreation; education; restaurants and hotels; and other goods and services. 2.3 2.6 2.6 2.8 3.1 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 -1.2 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1/12 4/12 7/12 10/12 1/13 4/13 7/13 10/13 1/14 4/14 7/14 10/14 1/15 Domestic (41%) Foreign (59%) Total -7.1 -10.3 -15.2 -10.3 -6.8 7.0 5.4 6.8 12.8 12.0 6.9 5.5 3.3 5.8 7.1 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Current Account (% of GDP) Capital and Financial Account (% of GDP) International Reserves (months of import cover)
  • 5. 4 International reserves continue to rise on higher confidence in the JOD Higher confidence in the JOD has led the central bank to continue accumulating international reserves. Jordan’s long-standing currency peg against the US dollar rests on the maintenance of a high level of international reserves. Improved confidence in the JOD, driven by an improvement in Jordan’s economic indicators, has led to a robust increase in Jordanian deposits and a corresponding decline in foreign currency deposits. This reflects the overall improvement in investor sentiment towards the Jordanian economy. As a result, the CBJ further accumulated international reserves to USD14.1bn at end- 2014 (7.1 months of import cover). This, combined with lower inflation levels, has prompted the CBJ to reduce its overnight deposit rate twice in 2014 and cut it further to 1.75% in February 2015, to encourage bank lending and support economic growth. International Reserves and Currency Substitution (USD bn and %) * Currency substitution is defined as the deposits of foreign currency as a percentage of total deposits Sources: CBJ and QNB Group analysis Higher grants and one-off revenues from the sale of mobile licences reduced the fiscal deficit in 2014 The fiscal deficit narrowed further to 2.3% of GDP in 2014 (5.6% in 2013), reflecting fiscal consolidation supported by the on-going IMF programme and grants. Government revenues increased to 28.4% of GDP, supported by reforms such as the elimination of exemptions from value added taxes (VAT), tax hikes on alcohol and cigarettes as well as one-off revenues from the sale of mobile licences. In addition, higher external grants, including the USD5bn pledged by GCC states, contributed to narrowing the deficit in 2014. Government spending rose to 30.7% of GDP, partly reflecting continuing losses from the National Electric and Power Company (NEPCO). Interruptions in gas supplies from Egypt forced Jordan to run its power plants primarily on more costly heavy fuel in 2014, thus increasing the cost of producing electricity. The government has been financing NEPCO losses through higher net public debt, which reached 80.3% of GDP at end-2014. Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) Sources: CBJ, Jordan Ministry of Finance (MoF) and QNB Group analysis The banking sector expanded broadly in line with the overall economy in 2014 Jordanian banks continue to be stable, liquid and adequately capitalised despite the difficult regional context. Notwithstanding robust deposit growth (9.7%), lending grew moderately (4.8%) in 2014 as banks preferred to buy government bonds rather than lend. Additionally, disruptions in trade to Iraq and Syria caused by the on- going regional context resulted in lower lending to the trade and services sector. As a result, the loan to deposit ratio fell significantly in 2014 (65.6%). Banks have continued to clean up their balance sheets of legacy non- performing loans (NPLs), leading to a moderate pickup in profitability. Banking Sector (% change; year-on-year) Sources: CBJ and QNB Group analysis 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 1/11 5/11 9/11 1/12 5/12 9/12 1/13 5/13 9/13 1/14 5/14 9/14 1/15 International Reserves (bn USD) (Left Axis) Currency Substitution* (Right Axis) 24.9 26.4 23.0 24.1 28.4 30.4 33.2 31.3 29.7 30.7 -5.6 -6.8 -8.3 -5.6 -2.3 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Revenue Expenditure Fiscal Balance 9.4% 7.8% 4.2% 9.0% 4.8% 10.9% 8.3% 2.4% 10.5% 9.7% 8.5% 9.7% 12.5% 6.2% 4.8% 64.2% 65.0% 71.4% 68.6% 65.6% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Assets Deposits Loans Loans to Deposit Ratio
  • 6. 5 Macroeconomic Outlook (2015-17) Despite a worsening geopolitical context and a weak global economy, Jordan is likely to continue to recover Real GDP growth is expected to accelerate to 4.0% in 2015 and gather further momentum in 2016 (4.3%) and 2017 (4.5%) as economic reforms continue to bear fruit. Key contributors to growth are likely to be construction, mining exports and higher government investment. A large number of construction projects are underway, including two new major projects in Aqaba and the Dead Sea as well as the Jordan-Saudi Arabia rail link. Moreover, a bilateral agreement with India for Jordanian phosphates will further boost mining exports over the medium term. Government investment into the expansion of the electricity grid and development of both conventional and renewable energy (mainly solar and wind) sectors will foster growth. Additionally, sustained lower energy prices will likely increase competitiveness and domestic demand, leading to higher economic growth. Real GDP Growth (%, year on year) Sources: DoS and QNB Group analysis and forecasts CPI inflation is expected to slow in 2015 on lower commodity prices but recover in 2016-17 We expect CPI inflation to decline to 0.8% in 2015. Lower global commodity prices are expected to lead to negative foreign inflation this year. Given that Eurozone states are a major source of Jordanian imports (26.7% of total imports in 2014), the weak euro against the USD (to which the JOD is pegged) will further lower foreign inflation. Domestic inflation is likely to remain moderate as further planned electricity price increases are expected to affect consumer prices. The continued presence of refugees in Jordan is also expected to further add to domestic inflation, in particular healthcare and housing. Going forward, we project overall inflation to recover to 2.0% in 2016 and 2.5% in 2017 on the back of a gradual pickup in foreign inflation stemming from higher global commodity prices. CPI Inflation (% average annual change; weights given in brackets) Sources: DoS and QNB Group analysis and forecasts Lower energy prices and higher exports will narrow the current account deficit temporarily in 2015, but widen in 2016-17 once energy prices rebound The current account deficit is projected to narrow to 2.9% of GDP in 2015. This largely reflects a reduction in the energy import bill, supported by lower oil prices and the start of liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports through the new terminal at the port of Aqaba starting in mid-2015. Meanwhile, a new bilateral agreement with India for Jordanian phosphate exports as well as a projected recovery in the price of potash is expected to lead to higher export growth from the mining sector. Looking ahead, the narrowing of the current account deficit is expected to be partially reversed in 2016 (3.9% of GDP) and in 2017 (4.7% of GDP) as oil prices are projected to gradually increase and average USD64.1/b in 2016 and USD69.0/b in 2017. Current Account (% of GDP) Sources: CBJ and QNB Group analysis and forecasts 3.1 4.0 4.3 4.5 2014 2015f 2016f 2017f 3.7 2.7 2.8 3.0 2.3 -0.6 1.5 2.1 2.9 0.8 2.0 2.5 2014 2015f 2016f 2017f Domestic (41%) Foreign (59%) Total 43.3 42.9 43.3 43.5 69.2 63.7 64.8 65.5 -6.8 -2.9 -3.9 -4.7 2014 2015f 2016f 2017f Exports Imports Current account balance
  • 7. 6 Higher taxes and lower energy costs should alleviate the fiscal deficit and put public debt on a downward trend Higher taxes and lower energy costs should narrow the fiscal deficit in 2015 (2.1% of GDP). On the revenue side, the new income tax law will raise tax rates, reduce the basic exemption allowances and introduce a tax on the foreign branches of Jordanian companies. On the expenditure side, the government has recently imposed a cap on wages and reduced subsidies. Lower oil prices will also reduce losses at NEPCO and thus the necessary transfers from the central government. As energy prices recover, however, the fiscal deficit is expected to widen again to 2.8% of GDP in 2016 and 3.5% in 2017. Structural fiscal reforms are also advancing, with a focus on improving tax administration, social assistance and public financial management. These reforms are likely to put the public debt to GDP ratio on a sustainable downward trend. Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) Sources: CBJ, MoF and QNB Group analysis and forecasts The government’s latest energy strategy is expected to reduce dependence on more expensive oil imports To diversify its energy mix, the authorities developed a national strategic plan in 2013 to reduce NEPCO losses. Due to shortfalls in gas supplies from Egypt, the share of natural gas in the total energy supply fell from 31% in 2010 to an estimated 8% in 2014. This has forced the government to shift to more expensive heavy fuel oil imports. In order to reverse this trend, the government is implementing a national strategic plan that aims to shift away from more expensive oil imports. Specifically, the strategy aims to: (i) switch electricity production from heavy fuel oil to LNG through a terminal that is expected to become operational in May 2015; (ii) develop domestic shale oil and renewable energy sources such as solar and wind; and (iii) build a nuclear power station that would start operations by 2022. These projects, particularly the expected LNG imports, are likely to reduce the share of oil imports over the medium term to less than half of the total energy supply. Energy Supply By Source (% shares) Sources: Jordan Ministry of Energy Minerals and Resources and QNB Group analysis and forecasts The banking sector is expected to continue growing broadly in line with the economy Deposit growth is likely to slow in 2015 (5.2%) on lower inflation, but rebound in 2016 (6.9%) and 2017 (7.4%) on stronger economic growth and higher inflation. Lending growth is expected to recover in 2015 (7.4%), 2016 (8.9%) and 2017 (9.5%) as lower government bond rates and reduced government financing needs push banks to increase their lending book. As such, the loan to deposit ratio is projected to rise gradually over the medium term. Banking assets are projected to grow in line with nominal GDP. Profitability should rise on further declines in NPLs and already high capitalisation ratios. Going forward, a key risk stems from the expected normalisation in US interest rates, which may result in higher Jordanian policy rates and thus compress banks’ net interest margins (NIMs). Banking Sector (% change; year-on-year) Sources: CBJ and QNB Group analysis and forecasts 28.4 26.4 26.7 27.030.7 28.5 29.5 30.5 -2.3 -2.1 -2.8 -3.5 2014 2015f 2016f 2017f Revenue Expenditure Fiscal Balance 24% 39% 42% 65% 82% 88% 88% 88% 61% 51% 49% 31% 12% 8% 8% 8% 10% 5% 5% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2010 2011 2012 2013e 2014e 2015f 2016f 2017f LNG Oil Natural Gas Electricity Renewable Energy 4.8% 5.9% 7.4% 8.0% 9.7% 5.2% 6.9% 7.4% 4.8% 7.4% 8.9% 9.5% 65.6% 66.9% 68.2% 69.5% 2014 2015f 2016f 2017f Assets Deposits Loans Loans to Deposit Ratio
  • 8. 7 Key Macroeconomic Indicators * For 2014, one-off revenues related to mobile licenses boosted total revenues by an estimated 1.0% of GDP ** For 2014, credit growth excludes the Murabahat extended by Islamic banks outside Jordan in JOD Sources: Bloomberg, BP, CBJ, DOS, EIU, IMF and QNB Group analysis and forecasts 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015f 2016f 2017f Real sector indicators Real GDP growth (%) 2.3 2.6 2.6 2.8 3.1 4.0 4.3 4.5 Nominal GDP (bn USD) 26.5 28.9 31.0 33.6 35.9 37.4 39.7 42.2 Growth (%) 10.9 9.1 7.3 8.6 6.6 4.3 6.0 6.5 GDP per capita (PPP, USD k) 10.9 11.2 11.4 11.7 11.9 12.2 12.7 13.2 Consumer price index inflation (%) 4.8 4.2 4.5 4.8 2.9 0.8 2.0 2.5 Domestic (41% of basket) 3.1 3.3 3.4 5.0 3.7 2.7 2.8 3.0 Foreign (59% of basket) 6.4 4.8 5.3 4.7 2.3 -0.6 1.5 2.1 External sector (% of GDP) Current account balance -7.1 -10.3 -15.2 -10.3 -6.8 -2.9 -3.9 -4.7 Goods and services balance -20.8 -26.2 -28.0 -29.5 -25.9 -20.8 -21.5 -22.0 Exports 48.3 47.7 46.3 42.5 43.3 42.9 43.3 43.5 Imports -69.0 -73.9 -74.3 -72.0 -69.2 -63.7 -64.8 -65.5 Capital and Financial account balance 7.0 5.4 6.8 12.8 12.0 8.2 6.8 5.4 International reserves (prospective import cover) 6.9 5.5 3.3 5.8 7.1 7.5 7.5 7.5 External debt 47.6 50.2 56.9 61.5 63.2 64.1 63.1 63.9 Budget balance (% of GDP) -5.6 -6.8 -8.3 -5.6 -2.3 -2.1 -2.8 -3.5 Revenue* 24.9 26.4 23.0 24.1 28.4 26.4 26.7 27.0 Expenditure 30.4 33.2 31.3 29.7 30.7 28.5 29.5 30.5 Public debt 61.1 65.5 75.5 80.1 80.3 78.6 76.3 74.1 Monetary indicators M2 growth 11.5 8.1 3.4 9.7 6.9 5.3 7.0 7.5 Policy Rate (%) 4.3 4.4 5.0 4.8 4.3 n.a. n.a. n.a. Exchange rate USD:JOD (av) 0.709 0.709 0.709 0.709 0.709 0.709 0.709 0.709 Banking indicators (%) Return on equity 8.8 8.3 8.6 9.9 11.4 n.a. n.a. n.a. NPL ratio 8.2 8.5 7.7 7.0 5.6 5.0 4.5 4.2 Capital adequacy ratio 20.3 19.3 19.0 18.4 18.6 n.a. n.a. n.a. Asset growth 9.4 7.8 4.2 9.0 4.8 5.9 7.4 8.0 Credit growth** 8.5 9.7 12.5 6.2 4.8 7.4 8.9 9.5 Deposit growth 10.9 8.3 2.4 10.5 9.7 5.2 6.9 7.4 Loan to deposit ratio 64.2 65.0 71.4 68.6 65.6 66.9 68.2 69.5 Memorandum items Population (m) 6.1 6.2 6.4 6.5 6.7 6.8 7.0 7.1 Growth (%) 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 Average Brent Crude Oil Price (USD/b) 79.8 111.0 111.8 108.7 99.7 56.2 64.1 69.0
  • 9. 8 QNB Group Publications Recent Economic Insight Reports China 2015 India 2014 Indonesia 2014 Jordan 2014 KSA 2013 Kuwait 2015 Oman 2013 Qatar – Sep 2014 Qatar - Feb 2015 UAE 2013 Qatar reports Qatar Monthly Monitor Recent Economic Commentaries Qatar’s Inflation Moderates on Lower Foreign Inflation Taking Stock of the Latest US Economic Data UK Elections Marginally Favour the Less Austere Oil, Currencies and Diverging Monetary Policies: the Global Economy in 2015 The Chinese Renminbi Lands in Doha Eight Reasons Why The US Economy Has Slowed Down in Q1 The Qatari Economy Grew Fast in 2014 Despite Falling Oil Prices Global Headwinds To Slow Several Asian Countries Has The Fed Run Out Of Patience? Will China Meet its 2015 Growth Target? India’s Budget Delivers on Modi’s Reform Agenda Little Global Spillover from the Greek Drama Why Did Bank Indonesia Cut Interest Rates? Are We In For Another US Dollar Squeeze? Are Oil Prices Poised For a Rebound? Capital Flows into Emerging Markets to Remain Volatile in 2015 How the ECB Learned to Love Quantitative Easing China’s Slowdown Could Further Deflate Commodity Prices The Great Deflation of 2015 Disclaimer and Copyright Notice All the information in this report has been carefully collated and verified. However, QNB Group accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses arising from its use. Where an opinion is expressed, unless otherwise cited, it is that of the authors which does not coincide with that of any other party, and such opinions may not be attributed to any other party. The report is distributed on a complimentary basis to valued business partners of QNB Group. It may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission.
  • 10. 9 QNB International Branches and Representative Offices China Room 930, 9th Floor Shanghai World Financial Center 100 Century Avenue Pudong New Area Shanghai China Tel: +86 21 6877 8980 Fax: +86 21 6877 8981 QNBchina@qnb.com Mauritania Al-Khaima City Center 10, Rue Mamadou Konate Mauritania Tel: +222 45249651 Fax: +222 4524 9655 QNBMauritania@qnb.com United Kingdom 51 Grosvenor Street London W1K 3HH United Kingdom Tel: +44 207 647 2600 Fax: +44 207 647 2647 QNBLondon@qnb.com France 65 Avenue d’lena 75116 Paris France Tel: +33 1 53 23 0077 Fax: +33 1 53 23 0070 QNBParis@qnb.com Oman QNB Building MBD Area - Matarah Opposite to Central Bank of Oman P.O. Box: 4050 Postal Code: 112, Ruwi Oman Tel: +968 2478 3555 Fax: +968 2477 9233 QNBOman@qnb.com Vietnam 31/F Saigon Trade Center 37 Ton Duc Thang street, District 1 Ho Chi Minh City Tel: +84 8 3911 7525 Fax: +84 8 939 100 082 QNBvietnam@qnb.com Iran Representative Office 6th floor Navak Building Unit 14 Africa Tehran Iran Tel: +98 21 88 889 814 Fax: +98 21 88 889 824 QNBIran@qnb.com Singapore Three Temasek Avenue #27-01 Centennial Tower Singapore 039190 Singapore Tel: +65 6499 0866 Fax: +65 6884 9679 QNBSingapore@qnb.com Yemen QNB Building Al-Zubairi Street P.O. Box: 4310 Sana’a Yemen Tel: +967 1 517517 Fax: +967 1 517666 QNBYemen@qnb.com Kuwait Al-Arabia Tower Ahmad Al-Jaber Street Sharq Area P.O. Box: 583 Dasman 15456 Kuwait Tel: +965 2226 7023 Fax: +965 2226 7031 QNBKuwait@qnb.com South Sudan Juba P.O. Box: 587 South Sudan QNBSouthSudan@qnb.com Lebanon Ahmad Shawki Street Capital Plaza Building Mina El Hosn, Solidere – Beirut Lebanon Tel: +961 1 762 222 Fax: +961 1 377 177 QNBLebanon@qnb.com Sudan Africa Road - Amarat Street No. 9, P.O. Box: 8134 Sudan Tel: +249 183 48 0000 Fax: +249 183 48 6666 QNBSudan@qnb.com
  • 11. 10 QNB Subsidiaries and Associate Companies Algeria The Housing Bank for Trade and Finance (HBTF) Tel: +213 2191881/2 Fax: +213 21918878 Iraq Mansour Bank Associate Company P.O. Box: 3162 Al Alawiya Post Office Al Wihda District Baghdad Iraq Tel: +964 1 7175586 Fax: +964 1 7175514 Switzerland QNB Banque Privée Subsidiary 3 Rue des Alpes P.O. Box: 1785 1211 Genève-1 Mont Blanc Switzerland Tel: +41 22907 7070 Fax: +41 22907 7071 Bahrain The Housing Bank for Trade and Finance (HBTF) Tel: +973 17225227 Fax: +973 17227225 Jordan The Housing Bank for Trade and Finance (HBTF) Associate Company P.O. Box: 7693 Postal Code 11118 Amman Jordan Tel: +962 6 5200400 Fax: +962 6 5678121 Syria QNB Syria Subsidiary Baghdad Street P.O. Box: 33000 Damascus Syria Tel: +963 11-2290 1000 Fax: +963 11-44 32221 Egypt QNB ALAHLI Dar Champollion 5 Champollion St, Downtown 2664 Cairo Egypt Tel: +202 2770 7000 Fax: +202 2770 7099 Info.QNBAA@QNBALAHLI.COM Libya Bank of Commerce and Development BCD Tower, Gamal A Nasser Street P.O. Box: 9045, Al Berka Benghazi Libya Tel: +218 619 080 230 Fax: +218 619 097 115 www.bcd.ly Tunisia QNB Tunisia Associate Company Rue de la cité des sciences P.O. Box: 320 – 1080 Tunis Cedex Tunisia Tel: +216 7171 3555 Fax: +216 7171 3111 www.tqb.com.tn India QNB India Private Limited 802 TCG Financial Centre Bandra Kurla Complex Bandra East Mumbai 400 051 India Tel: + 91 22 26525613 QNBindia@qnb.com Palestine The Housing Bank for Trade and Finance (HBTF) Tel: +970 2 2986270 Fax: +970 2 2986275 UAE Commercial Bank International p.s.c Associate Company P.O. Box: 4449, Dubai, Al Riqqa Street, Deira UAE Tel: +971 04 2275265 Fax: +971 04 2279038 Indonesia QNB Indonesia Tower, 18 Parc Jl. Jendral Sudirman Kav. 52-53 Jakarta 12190 Tel : +62 21 515 5155 Fax : +62 21 515 5388 qnbkesawan.co.id Qatar Al Jazeera Finance Company Associate Company P.O. Box: 22310 Doha Qatar Tel: +974 4468 2812 Fax: +974 4468 2616
  • 12. Qatar National Bank S.A.Q P.O. Box 1000, Doha, Qatar Tel: +974 4440 7407 Fax: +974 4441 3753 qnb.com