The coronavirus is likely to be a high-fear-but-low-risk issue, like the fear of flying after 9/11. But what's worth worrying about is how other people (including your government) may react.
COVID-19 is scary, but not as scary as reactions to it
1. Don’t worry about the virus.
Worryabout howotherpeople reacttothevirus.
2. Although not quite as contagious as avirus, behaviours
and attitudes can also spreadthrough a population.
Italy, 23 Feb 2020
3. We’ve seethis phenomenon in situations as disparate as:
• The spread ofa religion
• The acceptance ofnewknowledge in science
• The adoption ofGMO seeds in 1930s Iowa
• The growth ofFacebook in 2000s California
• The increase in usage ofbirth control
• The rise ofthe pro-life movement
4. People lookto otherpeople forwaysto behave.
Especiallywhenthe situation is perceived as uncertain and
threatening, like ourcurrent one
SanJose, 28 Feb 2020
6. Because manypeople behave as others do, social civilitycan
collapse, seeminglyovernight, once certain behaviours or
attitudes reach a critical mass.
Time
Critical mass/
Tipping point
Percentage of population
engaging in behaviour increases
exponentially after critical mass
Level of panic
shopping
(or any other
undesired
behaviour) in a
population
7. Panic shopping,the examplewe’re exploring, isn’t goingto
destroysociety. But it mayreinforcethe mindset of“every
person forhim/herself”,which mayprove problematic ifthe
COVID-19 situationworsens.
This isn’t a convenience store, but an anonymousAustralian’s stockpile
8. Just like inthe film Contagion,the current communications strategy
ofauthorities aroundtheworld seemsto be:
“We just needto make surethat nobodyknows until
everybodyknows.”
Critical mass/
Tipping point
It’s not a perfect strategy,
but it helpsto keep panic
levels from reaching critical
mass... ...until it does.
10. Whenyouthinkabout it, shopping forsupplies inthe face of
possible crisis isn’twrong; it’s quite a reasonablethingto do.
Don’tpanicbuy
3rd best case scenario—shit
hitsthe fan but at leastyou’re
wearing a raincoat
Worst outcome—boiled
leathershoes and belts for
dinner
2nd best outcome—
you end up looking silly;
colleagues nowcall you
BearGrylls
Best case scenario—
everything remainsthe same
with no effort expanded, but
heavilydependent on factors
outsideyourcontrol
Situationpasses
Situationworsens
Panicbuy
11. But it can become a serious societal issue.When it does,
don’t be surprisedto see heavy-handed interventions from
the state.This is anotherreactiontothe outbreakyou have
to be concerned about.
Apolice checkpoint nearWuhan. Screenshottaken fromtheYouTube documentary
“China.Tripto Infected Zone.What’s Fake andTruth about Coronavirus//HowPeople Live(2020)”
12. In fact,there are studies clearlyshowing countrieswith a
historyofecologicalthreats (including pathogen outbreaks)
being more inclinedtowards authoritarian rule.
14. Asecuritypost outside aWuhan apartment building; everyresident is effectivelytracked and curfewed.
From “China.Tripto Infected Zone.What’s Fake andTruth about Coronavirus//HowPeople Live(2020)”
Like Iwrote inthe beginning,thevirus maybe scary, but not
as scaryas howpeople reactto it.
