The coronavirus is likely to be a high-fear-but-low-risk issue, like the fear of flying after 9/11. But what's worth worrying about is how other people (including your government) may react.
The document discusses Malcolm Gladwell's concept of the "tipping point", which is when an idea or trend gains widespread popularity through small changes. It identifies three factors that can help reach a tipping point: 1) the law of the few, where a few influential people adopt an idea and spread it through their social networks; 2) stickiness factor, which makes an idea memorable and compelling; and 3) power of context, where environmental factors influence an idea's spread. Reaching the tipping point requires identifying influential people, creating sticky messages, and understanding the social context. Minor adjustments can have major impacts on an idea's popularity.
Crisis management lessons learned from the covid 19 pandemicClaude Sajous
This document discusses 7 key lessons learned from the Covid-19 pandemic: 1) Know the state of your preparedness, 2) Mobilize early in response to emerging threats, 3) Forward deploy critical resources proactively, 4) Be honest about the scale and severity of crises, 5) Continuously improve procedures and plans, 6) Everyone has a role to play in response, 7) Consider alternative perspectives by asking "what if". The author argues that earlier and more widespread actions could have reduced infections and deaths if these lessons were applied from the start of the pandemic.
Animal Farm Essay | Essay on Animal Farm for Students and Children in .... Essay on Animal Farm by George Orwell - GCSE English - Marked by .... Animal Farm Essay - GCSE English - Marked by Teachers.com. Animal farm essay topics. Animal Farm Essay Topics. 2019-01-11. Animal Farm Theme Essay – Telegraph. Essay on Animal Farm By George Orwell - GCSE English - Marked by .... Animal Farm Essay | English (Advanced) - Year 11 HSC | Thinkswap. Overview of Animal Farm - GCSE English - Marked by Teachers.com. Animal Farm - review. - GCSE English - Marked by Teachers.com. Animal Farm Essay | Ideologies | Political Science. Animal Farm - GCSE English - Marked by Teachers.com. (PDF) Animal Farm Essay | Griffin Carlson - Academia.edu. Animal essay. Essay examples animal farm. Descriptive Essay: Animal farm analysis essay. Animal Farm. - GCSE English - Marked by Teachers.com. Final Copy Animal Farm Essay Example | Languages. Animal Farm is not just about a story about animals it is about human .... Animal Farm Essay (A Grade) | English - Year 11 SACE | Thinkswap. Animal Farm Novel Essay. Free Essay On Animal Farm. Animal Farm Essay | PDF. Animal Farm Essay | Muammar Gaddafi | Political Theories. Animal Farm Essay Examples - writersgroup416.web.fc2.com. Animal Farm Betrayal Theme Essay | English - Year 11 SACE | Thinkswap Essays On Animal Farm
This document contains the lesson plan for a Social Justice class on food security. The lesson includes checking attendance, discussing current events and trends related to food security, selecting topics to research, watching videos and discussing images/maps, a mythbusters activity where students evaluate common myths about hunger, and an exit slip where students free write about food security. The class will conclude with a discussion of understanding and an overview of the next lesson on global versus local perspectives of food security.
Dentsu Consumer Intelligence Study - Recovery Navigator - June 2020.pdfPoppy Rodham
The document provides an overview of a weekly tracking study conducted by dentsu to understand how Australians are responding to and emerging from the COVID-19 pandemic. It outlines the methodology of the study, including a weekly online survey of 400 Australians aged 16+ from April to July 2020. The study aims to track changes in attitudes, behaviors, and the lasting impacts of the crisis over time. Key findings show that Australians have progressed from initial shock, to coming to grips, living in a new normal, and now moving into recovery as restrictions ease. Younger generations who were initially more concerned are now returning to life as they knew it before COVID-19.
This article is the antidote to news. It is long, and you probably won’t be able to skim it. Thanks to heavy news consumption, many people have lost the reading habit and struggle to absorb more than four pages straight.
This article will show you how to get out of this trap – if you are not already too deeply in it.
The document discusses Malcolm Gladwell's concept of the "tipping point", which is when an idea or trend gains widespread popularity through small changes. It identifies three factors that can help reach a tipping point: 1) the law of the few, where a few influential people adopt an idea and spread it through their social networks; 2) stickiness factor, which makes an idea memorable and compelling; and 3) power of context, where environmental factors influence an idea's spread. Reaching the tipping point requires identifying influential people, creating sticky messages, and understanding the social context. Minor adjustments can have major impacts on an idea's popularity.
Crisis management lessons learned from the covid 19 pandemicClaude Sajous
This document discusses 7 key lessons learned from the Covid-19 pandemic: 1) Know the state of your preparedness, 2) Mobilize early in response to emerging threats, 3) Forward deploy critical resources proactively, 4) Be honest about the scale and severity of crises, 5) Continuously improve procedures and plans, 6) Everyone has a role to play in response, 7) Consider alternative perspectives by asking "what if". The author argues that earlier and more widespread actions could have reduced infections and deaths if these lessons were applied from the start of the pandemic.
Animal Farm Essay | Essay on Animal Farm for Students and Children in .... Essay on Animal Farm by George Orwell - GCSE English - Marked by .... Animal Farm Essay - GCSE English - Marked by Teachers.com. Animal farm essay topics. Animal Farm Essay Topics. 2019-01-11. Animal Farm Theme Essay – Telegraph. Essay on Animal Farm By George Orwell - GCSE English - Marked by .... Animal Farm Essay | English (Advanced) - Year 11 HSC | Thinkswap. Overview of Animal Farm - GCSE English - Marked by Teachers.com. Animal Farm - review. - GCSE English - Marked by Teachers.com. Animal Farm Essay | Ideologies | Political Science. Animal Farm - GCSE English - Marked by Teachers.com. (PDF) Animal Farm Essay | Griffin Carlson - Academia.edu. Animal essay. Essay examples animal farm. Descriptive Essay: Animal farm analysis essay. Animal Farm. - GCSE English - Marked by Teachers.com. Final Copy Animal Farm Essay Example | Languages. Animal Farm is not just about a story about animals it is about human .... Animal Farm Essay (A Grade) | English - Year 11 SACE | Thinkswap. Animal Farm Novel Essay. Free Essay On Animal Farm. Animal Farm Essay | PDF. Animal Farm Essay | Muammar Gaddafi | Political Theories. Animal Farm Essay Examples - writersgroup416.web.fc2.com. Animal Farm Betrayal Theme Essay | English - Year 11 SACE | Thinkswap Essays On Animal Farm
This document contains the lesson plan for a Social Justice class on food security. The lesson includes checking attendance, discussing current events and trends related to food security, selecting topics to research, watching videos and discussing images/maps, a mythbusters activity where students evaluate common myths about hunger, and an exit slip where students free write about food security. The class will conclude with a discussion of understanding and an overview of the next lesson on global versus local perspectives of food security.
Dentsu Consumer Intelligence Study - Recovery Navigator - June 2020.pdfPoppy Rodham
The document provides an overview of a weekly tracking study conducted by dentsu to understand how Australians are responding to and emerging from the COVID-19 pandemic. It outlines the methodology of the study, including a weekly online survey of 400 Australians aged 16+ from April to July 2020. The study aims to track changes in attitudes, behaviors, and the lasting impacts of the crisis over time. Key findings show that Australians have progressed from initial shock, to coming to grips, living in a new normal, and now moving into recovery as restrictions ease. Younger generations who were initially more concerned are now returning to life as they knew it before COVID-19.
This article is the antidote to news. It is long, and you probably won’t be able to skim it. Thanks to heavy news consumption, many people have lost the reading habit and struggle to absorb more than four pages straight.
This article will show you how to get out of this trap – if you are not already too deeply in it.
Preparing for Armageddon, Natural Disasters, Nuclear Strikes, the Zombie Apocalypse, and Every Other Threat to Human Life on Earth! Most of us have thought about how we would handle various types of scenarios that could signal the end of the world. There are plenty of movies on the subject, psychological papers, and even survivalists that are part of reality TV shows. Perhaps you have had dreams about being one of the few left and what you would do in order to survive.
It doesn’t matter If think that the chances of a zombie apocalypse are next to zero. There are plenty of other types of scenarios that can occur. There may be a meteor in space that creates serious damages her on Earth. Even though nuclear weapons seem to be more controlled than in the 80’s, that doesn’t mean the risk of nuclear war is off the table.
What about the risks of natural disasters that are devastating in terms of the volume of damage that they can create? In recent years, the number of tornadoes, hurricanes, and other natural disasters have continued to increase. There can be many reasons for this including changes in overall climate.
How are you going to prepare yourself? Inside this report you are about to learn the basic things that you will do in times this moment will suddenly come.
Managing Coronavirus FearsThere are important health reasons t.docxwkyra78
Managing Coronavirus Fears
There are important health reasons to tamp down excessive anxiety that can accompany this viral threat.
By Jane E. Brody
April 13, 2020
Covid-19, the invisible enemy now bearing down on 328.2 million Americans, is tailor-made to induce fear and anxiety, prompting both rational and irrational behavior and, if the emotional stress persists, perhaps causing long-lasting harm to health.
We’re staring down an alien virus our bodies have never before encountered and which we are currently unable to control. There is no vaccine yet available to prevent Covid-19 or drug proven effective to fight the illness, limiting our ability to protect ourselves. So we buy reams and reams of toilet paper because it’s something we can do to give us a feeling of dominance over a force that threatens to overwhelm us.
“There’s never been a time in modern human history when every person is seriously worried about the same thing at the same time,” said David Ropeik, a consultant on risk management and former instructor in risk communication at the Harvard School of Public Health. And there’s never before been a ubiquitous threat that can be so instantly broadcast to a world of 7.8 billion people.
“We’re being inundated with a constant flow of scary information that overwhelms our ability to be dispassionate,” said Mr. Ropeik, author of “How Risky Is It, Really? Why Our Fears Don’t Always Match the Facts.” “Our brains are screaming to give the coronavirus more weight, challenging our ability to recognize that most people are actually at low risk.”
As with other calamities, it’s the bad news that gets the most attention, not the apparent fact that most people who become infected develop no symptoms or only mild ones and recover fully within a week or so.
Compounding a sense of doom for some people is their inability to evaluate risk and the fact that what is an acceptable risk for one person is intolerable to another. Following the terrorist attacks on Sept. 11, 2001, many people were afraid to fly and instead drove thousands of miles, incurring a far greater risk to life and limb yet instilling a feeling of control with their hands on the wheel and foot on the gas.
“A risk we choose seems less dangerous than a risk that is imposed on us,” Mr. Ropeik observed.
Not that it’s inappropriate to feel anxious about the risk we all now face, especially if that distress reminds us to be diligent about social distancing, avoid physical contact with people who do not share our household, wash our hands often and well and keep them off our faces and out of our eyes.
But while a certain amount of worrying can help motivate you to protect against possible exposure to the virus, compulsively reading or tuning in to the bad news about Covid-19 throughout the day is unlikely to enhance your emotional or physical well-being.
There are important health reasons to tamp down excessive anxiety that can accompany this viral threat. We have a built-in physiologic.
Disasters and Humans (DEMS3706 SU2020, Dr. Eric Kennedy)APDEMS370AlyciaGold776
Disasters and Humans (DEMS3706 SU2020, Dr. Eric Kennedy)
AP/DEMS3706 Note Share
Hello everyone! Think of this space as a crowdsourced notebook . . . everyone is welcome to take and share DEMS3706 lecture and reading notes here. -[;.
Module One - Rational, Irrational, or Something Else? 2
Cognitive Biases - Definitions 2
Bounded Rationality (Tversky, Kahneman) 6
Representativeness 6
Availability Bias 7
Adjustment and Anchoring 8
Cultural Cognition (Kahan, Braman) 8
DEMS3706 Lecture #1 10
DEMS3706 Lecture #2 (Cultural Cognition) 11
Module Two - Uncertainty & Prediction 13
Prediction, Cognition and the Brain (Bubic, von Cramon, Schubotz) 13
“A 30% Chance of Rain Tomorrow”: How Does the Public Understand Probabilistic Weather Forecasts? (Gigerenzer et al.) 16
Don’t Believe the COVID-19 Models (Tufekci) 18
Lecture #1 20
Lecture #2 21
Module Three - Fear, Anxiety, and All Things Scary 25
Lecture #1 25
Module Four - Decision-making Under Pressure 29
Lecture #1 29
Module Five - Expertise & Thinking as an Institution 33
54Lecture #1 33
Module Six - PTSD & Mental Health 35
Disasters and Humans (DEMS3706 SU2020, Dr. Eric Kennedy) 1
Module One - Rational, Irrational, or Something Else?Cognitive Biases - Definitions
Here are two images of cognitive biases of the ones that are required from the reading guide. The examples are simple and easy to follow:
12 Cognitive Biases That Can Impact Search Committee Decisions
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/50-cognitive-biases-in-the-modern-world/
Bias
Definition
Bias in Action (how this bias applies to disasters)-
Anchoring
This bias is described by individuals relying on an initial piece of information to make decisions. Comment by Eric Kennedy: Nice! Think of the example I gave during tutorial: students first were asked to think of the last two digits of their student number, then guess the number of countries in Africa. The lower the student #, the lower the guess. The higher the student #, the higher the guess. They got /anchored/ towards their initial number!
-During a large-scale disaster, a country may choose to proceed in a manner similar to a different country that went through the same experience, instead of searching for additional information to create the most successful plan. Comment by Eric Kennedy: Yes, these are good: early reactions to the pandemic will shape later ones... although this is also an example of priming.
If you wanted an example that's specific to anchoring, think about the magic "2 meter" number for physical distancing in lines. That number being introduced so early has powerfully affected what we see as "reasonable" physical distancing amounts... if it had started at 5m, we would be in a very different world of assumptions!
-This could also have been observed in how different countries proceeded with closures and containment during the pandemic.
Authority bias
This is defined as the tendency for people to rely more heavily on the opinion of a someone perceive ...
Ashley Waddy
English 112
November 23, 2015
Poverty 2
What I Know, Assume, or Imagine
Poverty is the state of lacking something. Personally, I view poverty as the lack of ability in monetary terms. This is conveyed about by, one being declared bankrupt or unemployment or even one being lazy. These factors have led to people reoccupying their households and dwelling in the slums.
Not everyone though, who lives in the slums is poor and not everyone who also lives well is rich. From what I have learned, everyone who lives below one Dollar a day is poor.The Search
According to the dictionary, poverty is the state of lacking a social or common acceptable amount of material possessions or money. World Bank describes poverty as a deprivation of one’s wellbeing which comprises many dimensions. This is the inability of acquiring the basic goods and services and low incomes
Also, poverty girdles inadequate security, lack of a voice or say, low opportunity and capacity to better one’s livelihood, poor access to sanitation and clean water, and low levels of education and health.
Poverty is measured as either relative poverty or absolute poverty also known as extreme poverty. The Copenhagen Declaration focuses only on absolute poverty. Absolute poverty is the condition brought about by severe lack of basic human needs. These are food, clothing, shelter and security. Education, health and information are also included.
Absolute poverty is the state where one lives below one Dollar a day and relative poverty is the state by which one lives below two Dollars a day.
Relative poverty on the other hand is the state in which an individual lives within a society. This varies in most countries, but as stated above, anyone who lives below two Dollars a day is termed to be relatively poor.
According to a survey conducted by the World Bank Development Indicators in 2008, 12% of the world’s population are extremely poor. This means that these people live below one Dollar a day. 8% of the same population lived on 1.25 Dollars a day, 6% at 1.45 Dollars and 14% at 2 Dollars a day. This means that 28% of the world’s population are relatively poor. Generally, less than 80% of the population live below 10 Dollars a day.
The main causes of poverty around the World are, bad government policies, lack of individual responsibility, power and influence among businesses and exploitation of people. There are more factors like, agricultural cycles, warfare, natural disasters, power centralization, corruption and environmental degradation.
However, each of the causes above has a solution. In agricultural cycles, there are people in many parts of the world who rely solely on agriculture as their source of wealth and basic commodities. Normally, all consumption commodities will rely on the agricultural cycles. Take an example of fruits and vegetables. For the families who rely on these commodities, there are periods wh ...
So, your company has gone Lean, or is in the process of embarking in lean practices.
Maybe you are a manufacturer and implemented some Lean Manufacturing in your operational areas... Or you are a contractor, and are trying to deploy some solid Lean Project Management and Lean Planning in order to run more efficiently and effectively your contracts... Or, even greater, you have decided to restructure your organisation and embark in a company-wide Lean Management project..... Very positive indeed.
BUT: have you perhaps considered a potentially very serious draw-back capable of jeopardising and threatening your Lean Project in part or in full? Most probably or most definitely NOT.
Your very serious draw-back (and public enemy N. 1) is Stupidity!
by Carlo Scodanibbio
https://www.scodanibbio.com
Lanier Jaron_Ten Arguments for Deleting All Your Social Media Accounts Right ...EduardoSerna23
This document discusses the arguments for deleting social media accounts due to losing free will. It describes how social media platforms constantly track users through their smartphones and other devices to gather data on behaviors and preferences. Algorithms then use this data to deliver individually tailored content and ads to influence user behaviors. This amounts to continuous behavior modification on a massive scale for purposes unknown to users. The document warns that users are losing their free will and autonomy as they become unwitting subjects in massive psychological experiments conducted by tech companies.
The document summarizes insights from an Edelman conference call about managing communications during the 2009 swine flu outbreak. [1] There was disagreement among officials in Mexico on how to message the situation as schools and restaurants closed and people panicked. [2] A public health expert explained what was known and not known about the virus's spread and effects. [3] The document outlines best practices for organizations to effectively communicate with employees and the public during an uncertain public health crisis.
This document defines crisis and crisis intervention. It begins by defining a crisis as an overwhelming reaction to a threatening situation where a person's usual problem solving strategies fail, resulting in disequilibrium. It then outlines three types of crises: developmental, situational, and adventitious. Next, it provides an overview of crisis intervention, noting that a crisis is time-limited, occurs for everyone, and one's perception determines if an event is a crisis. It describes balancing factors that determine the outcome of a crisis and outlines the phases of a crisis. The document concludes by describing the assessment, diagnosis, planning, implementation and evaluation steps involved in crisis intervention.
"It is clear that in a crisis, the rules do not apply. This which makes you wonder why they are rules in the first place. This is an unprecedented opportunity to not just hit the pause button and temporarily ease the pain, but to permanently change the rules so that untold millions of people aren’t so vulnerable to begin with".
Shared some interesting thoughts on the Coronavirus (Covid-19) crisis in regards to capitalism and society.
Please like, share and enjoy the read.
Advertising in the time of a plague - Part 2 (ENG) DDB Warszawa
100 predictions what the future holds
The pandemic is a time of dynamic changes and constant challenges for the brands, that is why we publish strategic reports as a part of the “Advertising in the time of plague” series. Their aim is to help calibrate communication and actions during this difficult time.
The first report is called “Communication strategies in the face of the coronavirus pandemic”. Published soon after restrictions were introduced, it advises how to communicate during this time. The second one, “100 predictions. What the future holds” seeks to answer the questions of what is ahead of us and how we can get ready for this frequently mentioned “New Normal”.
The document discusses how disasters are experienced differently today compared to the past due to ubiquitous media. Now, even those not directly affected can view disasters up close through social media and live coverage, experiencing the pain and tragedy from afar. In the past, experiences of disasters were more localized, but now mobile devices and social networks allow information about disasters to spread widely in real time.
This document proposes using popular battle royale video games to promote COVID-19 vaccination. It suggests adding an in-game "Sudden Death Vaccine" syringe that protects players from suddenly dying, representing protection from COVID-19. If players do not use the syringe and die in-game, a warning message encourages calling family to discuss vaccination. The goal is to raise awareness among younger generations who will then influence older, more skeptical family members to get vaccinated through family discussions.
Here is a draft letter:
Dear Ate Charing,
I recently watched the episode about a family who survived a powerful typhoon that hit their province last year. The story really inspired me with how resilient they were in the face of such a devastating disaster.
The typhoon caused massive flooding that destroyed their home and business. They lost all of their possessions and their main source of income. in the aftermath, they had to deal with health risks as well, as stagnant floodwaters bred disease. The family, including three young children, became displaced and had to live in an evacuation center for months.
Despite all the hardships, the family worked together to recover. The father took on odd jobs to earn
Black Swan Risk Management - Aditya YadavAditya Yadav
This document discusses managing risks from "black swan" events, which are rare events with severe consequences that are often rationalized with hindsight. The author argues that a probabilistic or statistical approach is inappropriate for black swan risk management. Instead, organizations should use scenario-based modeling to simulate assumption failures, identify model sanity checks, and prepare reactive measures. The key is having a general consensus on risk themes and practices for different categories of model breakdowns, rather than rigid procedures, so people understand risks mentally.
Fred Brown has extensive experience leading responses to epidemics. He summarizes the COVID-19 pandemic as exceptionally dangerous due to widespread lack of immunity and high contagiousness. Strong social distancing has slowed the virus's exponential growth but devastates economies. Three restoration strategies are suggested: developing a vaccine, allowing herd immunity through widespread infection, or managing social behavior to minimize risk while restoring some economic activity over several years. The last option, a "marathon" approach, is argued to be the safest strategy.
The document provides instructions for creating an account and submitting assignment requests on the HelpWriting.net website. It outlines a 5-step process: 1) Create an account with a password and email. 2) Complete a form with assignment details. 3) Review bids from writers and choose one. 4) Receive the paper and authorize payment if satisfied. 5) Request revisions until fully satisfied, with the option of a refund for plagiarized work. The purpose is to guide users through obtaining writing help services from HelpWriting.net.
Komen Foundation faced a "disaster crisis" on social media after deciding to cut funding to Planned Parenthood. Their crisis escalated due to a lack of response and transparency. In contrast, Planned Parenthood responded quickly and openly according to best practices. To recover, Komen should have immediately apologized, admitted their mistake, and reversed the decision. Long-term, they need more transparency, involvement of followers in fundraising, and new campaigns to rebuild trust on social media. Being responsive, transparent, and listening to followers is key to handling future crises effectively.
Preparing for Armageddon, Natural Disasters, Nuclear Strikes, the Zombie Apocalypse, and Every Other Threat to Human Life on Earth! Most of us have thought about how we would handle various types of scenarios that could signal the end of the world. There are plenty of movies on the subject, psychological papers, and even survivalists that are part of reality TV shows. Perhaps you have had dreams about being one of the few left and what you would do in order to survive.
It doesn’t matter If think that the chances of a zombie apocalypse are next to zero. There are plenty of other types of scenarios that can occur. There may be a meteor in space that creates serious damages her on Earth. Even though nuclear weapons seem to be more controlled than in the 80’s, that doesn’t mean the risk of nuclear war is off the table.
What about the risks of natural disasters that are devastating in terms of the volume of damage that they can create? In recent years, the number of tornadoes, hurricanes, and other natural disasters have continued to increase. There can be many reasons for this including changes in overall climate.
How are you going to prepare yourself? Inside this report you are about to learn the basic things that you will do in times this moment will suddenly come.
Managing Coronavirus FearsThere are important health reasons t.docxwkyra78
Managing Coronavirus Fears
There are important health reasons to tamp down excessive anxiety that can accompany this viral threat.
By Jane E. Brody
April 13, 2020
Covid-19, the invisible enemy now bearing down on 328.2 million Americans, is tailor-made to induce fear and anxiety, prompting both rational and irrational behavior and, if the emotional stress persists, perhaps causing long-lasting harm to health.
We’re staring down an alien virus our bodies have never before encountered and which we are currently unable to control. There is no vaccine yet available to prevent Covid-19 or drug proven effective to fight the illness, limiting our ability to protect ourselves. So we buy reams and reams of toilet paper because it’s something we can do to give us a feeling of dominance over a force that threatens to overwhelm us.
“There’s never been a time in modern human history when every person is seriously worried about the same thing at the same time,” said David Ropeik, a consultant on risk management and former instructor in risk communication at the Harvard School of Public Health. And there’s never before been a ubiquitous threat that can be so instantly broadcast to a world of 7.8 billion people.
“We’re being inundated with a constant flow of scary information that overwhelms our ability to be dispassionate,” said Mr. Ropeik, author of “How Risky Is It, Really? Why Our Fears Don’t Always Match the Facts.” “Our brains are screaming to give the coronavirus more weight, challenging our ability to recognize that most people are actually at low risk.”
As with other calamities, it’s the bad news that gets the most attention, not the apparent fact that most people who become infected develop no symptoms or only mild ones and recover fully within a week or so.
Compounding a sense of doom for some people is their inability to evaluate risk and the fact that what is an acceptable risk for one person is intolerable to another. Following the terrorist attacks on Sept. 11, 2001, many people were afraid to fly and instead drove thousands of miles, incurring a far greater risk to life and limb yet instilling a feeling of control with their hands on the wheel and foot on the gas.
“A risk we choose seems less dangerous than a risk that is imposed on us,” Mr. Ropeik observed.
Not that it’s inappropriate to feel anxious about the risk we all now face, especially if that distress reminds us to be diligent about social distancing, avoid physical contact with people who do not share our household, wash our hands often and well and keep them off our faces and out of our eyes.
But while a certain amount of worrying can help motivate you to protect against possible exposure to the virus, compulsively reading or tuning in to the bad news about Covid-19 throughout the day is unlikely to enhance your emotional or physical well-being.
There are important health reasons to tamp down excessive anxiety that can accompany this viral threat. We have a built-in physiologic.
Disasters and Humans (DEMS3706 SU2020, Dr. Eric Kennedy)APDEMS370AlyciaGold776
Disasters and Humans (DEMS3706 SU2020, Dr. Eric Kennedy)
AP/DEMS3706 Note Share
Hello everyone! Think of this space as a crowdsourced notebook . . . everyone is welcome to take and share DEMS3706 lecture and reading notes here. -[;.
Module One - Rational, Irrational, or Something Else? 2
Cognitive Biases - Definitions 2
Bounded Rationality (Tversky, Kahneman) 6
Representativeness 6
Availability Bias 7
Adjustment and Anchoring 8
Cultural Cognition (Kahan, Braman) 8
DEMS3706 Lecture #1 10
DEMS3706 Lecture #2 (Cultural Cognition) 11
Module Two - Uncertainty & Prediction 13
Prediction, Cognition and the Brain (Bubic, von Cramon, Schubotz) 13
“A 30% Chance of Rain Tomorrow”: How Does the Public Understand Probabilistic Weather Forecasts? (Gigerenzer et al.) 16
Don’t Believe the COVID-19 Models (Tufekci) 18
Lecture #1 20
Lecture #2 21
Module Three - Fear, Anxiety, and All Things Scary 25
Lecture #1 25
Module Four - Decision-making Under Pressure 29
Lecture #1 29
Module Five - Expertise & Thinking as an Institution 33
54Lecture #1 33
Module Six - PTSD & Mental Health 35
Disasters and Humans (DEMS3706 SU2020, Dr. Eric Kennedy) 1
Module One - Rational, Irrational, or Something Else?Cognitive Biases - Definitions
Here are two images of cognitive biases of the ones that are required from the reading guide. The examples are simple and easy to follow:
12 Cognitive Biases That Can Impact Search Committee Decisions
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/50-cognitive-biases-in-the-modern-world/
Bias
Definition
Bias in Action (how this bias applies to disasters)-
Anchoring
This bias is described by individuals relying on an initial piece of information to make decisions. Comment by Eric Kennedy: Nice! Think of the example I gave during tutorial: students first were asked to think of the last two digits of their student number, then guess the number of countries in Africa. The lower the student #, the lower the guess. The higher the student #, the higher the guess. They got /anchored/ towards their initial number!
-During a large-scale disaster, a country may choose to proceed in a manner similar to a different country that went through the same experience, instead of searching for additional information to create the most successful plan. Comment by Eric Kennedy: Yes, these are good: early reactions to the pandemic will shape later ones... although this is also an example of priming.
If you wanted an example that's specific to anchoring, think about the magic "2 meter" number for physical distancing in lines. That number being introduced so early has powerfully affected what we see as "reasonable" physical distancing amounts... if it had started at 5m, we would be in a very different world of assumptions!
-This could also have been observed in how different countries proceeded with closures and containment during the pandemic.
Authority bias
This is defined as the tendency for people to rely more heavily on the opinion of a someone perceive ...
Ashley Waddy
English 112
November 23, 2015
Poverty 2
What I Know, Assume, or Imagine
Poverty is the state of lacking something. Personally, I view poverty as the lack of ability in monetary terms. This is conveyed about by, one being declared bankrupt or unemployment or even one being lazy. These factors have led to people reoccupying their households and dwelling in the slums.
Not everyone though, who lives in the slums is poor and not everyone who also lives well is rich. From what I have learned, everyone who lives below one Dollar a day is poor.The Search
According to the dictionary, poverty is the state of lacking a social or common acceptable amount of material possessions or money. World Bank describes poverty as a deprivation of one’s wellbeing which comprises many dimensions. This is the inability of acquiring the basic goods and services and low incomes
Also, poverty girdles inadequate security, lack of a voice or say, low opportunity and capacity to better one’s livelihood, poor access to sanitation and clean water, and low levels of education and health.
Poverty is measured as either relative poverty or absolute poverty also known as extreme poverty. The Copenhagen Declaration focuses only on absolute poverty. Absolute poverty is the condition brought about by severe lack of basic human needs. These are food, clothing, shelter and security. Education, health and information are also included.
Absolute poverty is the state where one lives below one Dollar a day and relative poverty is the state by which one lives below two Dollars a day.
Relative poverty on the other hand is the state in which an individual lives within a society. This varies in most countries, but as stated above, anyone who lives below two Dollars a day is termed to be relatively poor.
According to a survey conducted by the World Bank Development Indicators in 2008, 12% of the world’s population are extremely poor. This means that these people live below one Dollar a day. 8% of the same population lived on 1.25 Dollars a day, 6% at 1.45 Dollars and 14% at 2 Dollars a day. This means that 28% of the world’s population are relatively poor. Generally, less than 80% of the population live below 10 Dollars a day.
The main causes of poverty around the World are, bad government policies, lack of individual responsibility, power and influence among businesses and exploitation of people. There are more factors like, agricultural cycles, warfare, natural disasters, power centralization, corruption and environmental degradation.
However, each of the causes above has a solution. In agricultural cycles, there are people in many parts of the world who rely solely on agriculture as their source of wealth and basic commodities. Normally, all consumption commodities will rely on the agricultural cycles. Take an example of fruits and vegetables. For the families who rely on these commodities, there are periods wh ...
So, your company has gone Lean, or is in the process of embarking in lean practices.
Maybe you are a manufacturer and implemented some Lean Manufacturing in your operational areas... Or you are a contractor, and are trying to deploy some solid Lean Project Management and Lean Planning in order to run more efficiently and effectively your contracts... Or, even greater, you have decided to restructure your organisation and embark in a company-wide Lean Management project..... Very positive indeed.
BUT: have you perhaps considered a potentially very serious draw-back capable of jeopardising and threatening your Lean Project in part or in full? Most probably or most definitely NOT.
Your very serious draw-back (and public enemy N. 1) is Stupidity!
by Carlo Scodanibbio
https://www.scodanibbio.com
Lanier Jaron_Ten Arguments for Deleting All Your Social Media Accounts Right ...EduardoSerna23
This document discusses the arguments for deleting social media accounts due to losing free will. It describes how social media platforms constantly track users through their smartphones and other devices to gather data on behaviors and preferences. Algorithms then use this data to deliver individually tailored content and ads to influence user behaviors. This amounts to continuous behavior modification on a massive scale for purposes unknown to users. The document warns that users are losing their free will and autonomy as they become unwitting subjects in massive psychological experiments conducted by tech companies.
The document summarizes insights from an Edelman conference call about managing communications during the 2009 swine flu outbreak. [1] There was disagreement among officials in Mexico on how to message the situation as schools and restaurants closed and people panicked. [2] A public health expert explained what was known and not known about the virus's spread and effects. [3] The document outlines best practices for organizations to effectively communicate with employees and the public during an uncertain public health crisis.
This document defines crisis and crisis intervention. It begins by defining a crisis as an overwhelming reaction to a threatening situation where a person's usual problem solving strategies fail, resulting in disequilibrium. It then outlines three types of crises: developmental, situational, and adventitious. Next, it provides an overview of crisis intervention, noting that a crisis is time-limited, occurs for everyone, and one's perception determines if an event is a crisis. It describes balancing factors that determine the outcome of a crisis and outlines the phases of a crisis. The document concludes by describing the assessment, diagnosis, planning, implementation and evaluation steps involved in crisis intervention.
"It is clear that in a crisis, the rules do not apply. This which makes you wonder why they are rules in the first place. This is an unprecedented opportunity to not just hit the pause button and temporarily ease the pain, but to permanently change the rules so that untold millions of people aren’t so vulnerable to begin with".
Shared some interesting thoughts on the Coronavirus (Covid-19) crisis in regards to capitalism and society.
Please like, share and enjoy the read.
Advertising in the time of a plague - Part 2 (ENG) DDB Warszawa
100 predictions what the future holds
The pandemic is a time of dynamic changes and constant challenges for the brands, that is why we publish strategic reports as a part of the “Advertising in the time of plague” series. Their aim is to help calibrate communication and actions during this difficult time.
The first report is called “Communication strategies in the face of the coronavirus pandemic”. Published soon after restrictions were introduced, it advises how to communicate during this time. The second one, “100 predictions. What the future holds” seeks to answer the questions of what is ahead of us and how we can get ready for this frequently mentioned “New Normal”.
The document discusses how disasters are experienced differently today compared to the past due to ubiquitous media. Now, even those not directly affected can view disasters up close through social media and live coverage, experiencing the pain and tragedy from afar. In the past, experiences of disasters were more localized, but now mobile devices and social networks allow information about disasters to spread widely in real time.
This document proposes using popular battle royale video games to promote COVID-19 vaccination. It suggests adding an in-game "Sudden Death Vaccine" syringe that protects players from suddenly dying, representing protection from COVID-19. If players do not use the syringe and die in-game, a warning message encourages calling family to discuss vaccination. The goal is to raise awareness among younger generations who will then influence older, more skeptical family members to get vaccinated through family discussions.
Here is a draft letter:
Dear Ate Charing,
I recently watched the episode about a family who survived a powerful typhoon that hit their province last year. The story really inspired me with how resilient they were in the face of such a devastating disaster.
The typhoon caused massive flooding that destroyed their home and business. They lost all of their possessions and their main source of income. in the aftermath, they had to deal with health risks as well, as stagnant floodwaters bred disease. The family, including three young children, became displaced and had to live in an evacuation center for months.
Despite all the hardships, the family worked together to recover. The father took on odd jobs to earn
Black Swan Risk Management - Aditya YadavAditya Yadav
This document discusses managing risks from "black swan" events, which are rare events with severe consequences that are often rationalized with hindsight. The author argues that a probabilistic or statistical approach is inappropriate for black swan risk management. Instead, organizations should use scenario-based modeling to simulate assumption failures, identify model sanity checks, and prepare reactive measures. The key is having a general consensus on risk themes and practices for different categories of model breakdowns, rather than rigid procedures, so people understand risks mentally.
Fred Brown has extensive experience leading responses to epidemics. He summarizes the COVID-19 pandemic as exceptionally dangerous due to widespread lack of immunity and high contagiousness. Strong social distancing has slowed the virus's exponential growth but devastates economies. Three restoration strategies are suggested: developing a vaccine, allowing herd immunity through widespread infection, or managing social behavior to minimize risk while restoring some economic activity over several years. The last option, a "marathon" approach, is argued to be the safest strategy.
The document provides instructions for creating an account and submitting assignment requests on the HelpWriting.net website. It outlines a 5-step process: 1) Create an account with a password and email. 2) Complete a form with assignment details. 3) Review bids from writers and choose one. 4) Receive the paper and authorize payment if satisfied. 5) Request revisions until fully satisfied, with the option of a refund for plagiarized work. The purpose is to guide users through obtaining writing help services from HelpWriting.net.
Komen Foundation faced a "disaster crisis" on social media after deciding to cut funding to Planned Parenthood. Their crisis escalated due to a lack of response and transparency. In contrast, Planned Parenthood responded quickly and openly according to best practices. To recover, Komen should have immediately apologized, admitted their mistake, and reversed the decision. Long-term, they need more transparency, involvement of followers in fundraising, and new campaigns to rebuild trust on social media. Being responsive, transparent, and listening to followers is key to handling future crises effectively.
Similar to COVID-19 is scary, but not as scary as reactions to it (19)
FT author
Amanda Chu
US Energy Reporter
PREMIUM
June 20 2024
Good morning and welcome back to Energy Source, coming to you from New York, where the city swelters in its first heatwave of the season.
Nearly 80 million people were under alerts in the US north-east and midwest yesterday as temperatures in some municipalities reached record highs in a test to the country’s rickety power grid.
In other news, the Financial Times has a new Big Read this morning on Russia’s grip on nuclear power. Despite sanctions on its economy, the Kremlin continues to be an unrivalled exporter of nuclear power plants, building more than half of all reactors under construction globally. Read how Moscow is using these projects to wield global influence.
Today’s Energy Source dives into the latest Statistical Review of World Energy, the industry’s annual stocktake of global energy consumption. The report was published for more than 70 years by BP before it was passed over to the Energy Institute last year. The oil major remains a contributor.
Data Drill looks at a new analysis from the World Bank showing gas flaring is at a four-year high.
Thanks for reading,
Amanda
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New report offers sobering view of the energy transition
Every year the Statistical Review of World Energy offers a behemoth of data on the state of the global energy market. This year’s findings highlight the world’s insatiable demand for energy and the need to speed up the pace of decarbonisation.
Here are our four main takeaways from this year’s report:
Fossil fuel consumption — and emissions — are at record highs
Countries burnt record amounts of oil and coal last year, sending global fossil fuel consumption and emissions to all-time highs, the Energy Institute reported. Oil demand grew 2.6 per cent, surpassing 100mn barrels per day for the first time.
Meanwhile, the share of fossil fuels in the energy mix declined slightly by half a percentage point, but still made up more than 81 per cent of consumption.
Disampaikan pada FGD Kepmen Pertahanan tentang Organisasi Profesi JF Analis Pertahanan Negara
Jakarta, 20 Juni 2024
Dr. Tri Widodo W. Utomo, SH. MA.
Deputi Bidang Kajian Kebijakan dan Inovasi Administrasi Negara LAN RI
Jennifer Schaus and Associates hosts a complimentary webinar series on The FAR in 2024. Join the webinars on Wednesdays and Fridays at noon, eastern.
Recordings are on YouTube and the company website.
https://www.youtube.com/@jenniferschaus/videos
Causes Supporting Charity for Elderly PeopleSERUDS INDIA
Around 52% of the elder populations in India are living in poverty and poor health problems. In this technological world, they became very backward without having any knowledge about technology. So they’re dependent on working hard for their daily earnings, they’re physically very weak. Thus charity organizations are made to help and raise them and also to give them hope to live.
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COVID-19 is scary, but not as scary as reactions to it
1. Don’t worry about the virus.
Worryabout howotherpeople reacttothevirus.
2. Although not quite as contagious as avirus, behaviours
and attitudes can also spreadthrough a population.
Italy, 23 Feb 2020
3. We’ve seethis phenomenon in situations as disparate as:
• The spread ofa religion
• The acceptance ofnewknowledge in science
• The adoption ofGMO seeds in 1930s Iowa
• The growth ofFacebook in 2000s California
• The increase in usage ofbirth control
• The rise ofthe pro-life movement
4. People lookto otherpeople forwaysto behave.
Especiallywhenthe situation is perceived as uncertain and
threatening, like ourcurrent one
SanJose, 28 Feb 2020
6. Because manypeople behave as others do, social civilitycan
collapse, seeminglyovernight, once certain behaviours or
attitudes reach a critical mass.
Time
Critical mass/
Tipping point
Percentage of population
engaging in behaviour increases
exponentially after critical mass
Level of panic
shopping
(or any other
undesired
behaviour) in a
population
7. Panic shopping,the examplewe’re exploring, isn’t goingto
destroysociety. But it mayreinforcethe mindset of“every
person forhim/herself”,which mayprove problematic ifthe
COVID-19 situationworsens.
This isn’t a convenience store, but an anonymousAustralian’s stockpile
8. Just like inthe film Contagion,the current communications strategy
ofauthorities aroundtheworld seemsto be:
“We just needto make surethat nobodyknows until
everybodyknows.”
Critical mass/
Tipping point
It’s not a perfect strategy,
but it helpsto keep panic
levels from reaching critical
mass... ...until it does.
10. Whenyouthinkabout it, shopping forsupplies inthe face of
possible crisis isn’twrong; it’s quite a reasonablethingto do.
Don’tpanicbuy
3rd best case scenario—shit
hitsthe fan but at leastyou’re
wearing a raincoat
Worst outcome—boiled
leathershoes and belts for
dinner
2nd best outcome—
you end up looking silly;
colleagues nowcall you
BearGrylls
Best case scenario—
everything remainsthe same
with no effort expanded, but
heavilydependent on factors
outsideyourcontrol
Situationpasses
Situationworsens
Panicbuy
11. But it can become a serious societal issue.When it does,
don’t be surprisedto see heavy-handed interventions from
the state.This is anotherreactiontothe outbreakyou have
to be concerned about.
Apolice checkpoint nearWuhan. Screenshottaken fromtheYouTube documentary
“China.Tripto Infected Zone.What’s Fake andTruth about Coronavirus//HowPeople Live(2020)”
12. In fact,there are studies clearlyshowing countrieswith a
historyofecologicalthreats (including pathogen outbreaks)
being more inclinedtowards authoritarian rule.
14. Asecuritypost outside aWuhan apartment building; everyresident is effectivelytracked and curfewed.
From “China.Tripto Infected Zone.What’s Fake andTruth about Coronavirus//HowPeople Live(2020)”
Like Iwrote inthe beginning,thevirus maybe scary, but not
as scaryas howpeople reactto it.