A Brief Overview of a Possible Digital Near Future

A Brief Overview of a Possible Digital Near Future Antoine Dubuquoy 09/11/2009

Summary #1 About screens and Internet #2 A whole World becoming Digital #3 When Media turned Social #4 What's Next?

Chapter #1
About screens and Internet

How many…
Internet users in the world?
People have broadband access?
Computers worldwide?
Search requests worldwide in July 09?
Internet users shop online?
Stunning, uh?

1,7 Billion Internet users! Source: www.internetworldstats.com

304 Million broadband subscribers Source: www.internetworldstats.com

Source: http://www.c-i-a.com 1,2 Billion PCs in use

113 Billion search requests Source: ComScore

86% shop online Source: http://www.journaldunet.com

Talking about screens, have you ever heard about SiSoMo?
The Future on Screen
Kevin Roberts, CEO Saatchi & Saatchi ‏
How many screens are we exposed to every day? (TV, pda, smartphone, computer, videogame console, ATM, movie theater, iPod...) - each with its own SiSoMo level
Like it or not, screens are everywhere (at home, outdoor, on board, in store…) ‏

Ever tried to live without screens or Internet?
How do you feel when:
Computer is broken?
Connection is down?
Company mainframe not working?
No GSM, 3G, GPRS connection?
Be honest...
If you've answered 4x« Miserable », you MUST admit you CANNOT live without it!
And you freak out when the screen is empty

A new challenge for the screens
Before
Collective
Passive
Today
Interactive
Individual
Multiple

Today’s reality
Touching the screen… to interact…

Until… no physical screen

Chapter #2
A whole World becoming Digital

Do you want to know about my digital life?
You have no choice, I'm standing in front of you AND I'm holding the mic!
Computer and I met in '94
I brought it home in '96
We started surfing on the Web in '97 (26k connection speed, internet shrieking noise, patience...) ‏
I played Tomb Raider AND got the cheatcodes on the Internet... (and drivers, and freewares, etc, etc…) ‏
2 Gb disk was huge

Do you want to know… (Part 2) ‏
I didn't join a startup in '99, though VERY tempted
Bubble bust in '01 
Purchased stuff online including a Dell computer
Downloaded music…
Broadband at home
“ Web 2.0” appears in ‘04
Joined all possible social networks
Beta-tested all possible services
Opened a blog in '05
Sold my scooter on eBay

Do you want to know… (Part 3) ‏
Started blogging about new media in '06
Interviewed ASW founder by e-mail
Interviewed Pandora founder on the phone
Started building my digital ID
Joined an American in-game advertising start-up
...
Stop! I think you've got enough of egocasting!! 

What’s egocasting?
From broadcasting to narrowcasting...
Targeted communication
« I don't want 10,000 channels, I just want the channel I want to watch » (Nicholas Negroponte – MIT) ‏
Web 2.0 (Tim O'Reilly)
Anybody becomes a producer
I can talk to the world about any topic
And the whole world can respond
Narrowcasting ignites conversation
But is this only a geek thing?

BTW, do you speak geek?
Any idea what this means?
IMHO
WTF?
lol , o/, :) ‏
WOW
PWNED
IRL
FRAGGED ‏
GIYF = “Google is your friend”
n00b [ˈnuːbɪ]
RUT? Afk!
Make an effort, your kids can do it!
Source: http://geekdictionary.computing.net This is NOT me!

Is « geekitude » a fate?
Digital natives vs immigrants? (eg Gen Y vs You) ‏
Kids born with a keyboard and a gamepad in hand
IT is not a topic for kids, it's just obvious
Ever tried to live with teenagers when Internet connection is down?
Ever opened a computer, just for fun?
Ever tried to manage a home wifi computer network?
No doubt, it has become a a necessity !

A quick focus on Generation Y
13 to 31 years old (some say it starts at 5!) ‏
100% connected, Internet, screens, mp3, mobile, wireless…
Born for multitasking
Trust their friends, not brands
TV is no longer their media
Political and social consciousness
Grab news from multiple sources
Mash-up generation
Source: www.sachachua.com

Intermission: « How to tell if you are a geek? »

BTW… ;) ‏

Internet Gurus* Wall of Fame
Chris Anderson – The Long Tail Theory / Free
Seth Godin – Permission Marketing
Vinton Cerf – Pilgrim Father (and Google’s Chief Internet Evangelist) ‏
Tim O'Reilly – Web 2.0
Andrew Keen – The Cult of the Amateur
Jeff Jarvis – What would Google Do?
Robert Scoble – Scobleizer
Tim Berners-Lee – God?
* probably geeks…

Conversation time! Is blogging time-consuming?
Definitely yes. But...
Think yourself as a brand ...
Blogging to build-up your image
Blogging is just about starting conversations
And meeting people IRL
And getting more Google results!
And sharing experience
And becoming an expert

DMCA: Digital Millenium Copyright Act - 1998

Ever thought being on Twitter?
140 characters micro-blogging device
RT, #hashtags, #fail
Search and datamining device
Participate to your own personal branding plan
10% of users generate 90% of tweets
Fashionable until the next big thing is launched
Friendfeed, Seesmic, etc...
Let's try it now!!! (Live tweet experience) ‏

And what about Facebook?
You're sure it's a loss of time
First, it’s just looking at yourself in a mirror
But it's also about networking
250,000,000 fans can't be (totally) wrong
The 6 degrees theory – friends of friends
Just read the terms of use!
And tune-up the right settings...

BTW… it’s NOT just for kids and teenagers… Source: http://123socialmedia.com

What’s the use of social media?
Self expression + Discovery + Conversation
Sooooo, YOU just need to:
Learn the rules
Use them for your own benefit
Be connected
Share
The more you give, the more you'll get in return
Engage
And never forget…

Intermission #1
“ On the Internet,
nobody knows
you're a dog”
(The New Yorker) ‏
One of, if not THE
cornerstone of digital
identity and personal
branding

Intermission#2 About social media ADHD = Attention-deficit Hyperactivity Disorder

How I ruined the music industry?
There came Napster in 1999 and it's followers…
“ Citius, Altius, Fortius ” – Harder, Better, Faster, Stronger…
Somes figures: CD sales vs MP3 downloads:
CD = 65% US music sales 1 st half 2009 / Digital downloads = CD sales in 2010
iTunes: 69% digital sales in 2009
Even Lars Ulrich has downloaded Death Magnetic before it's release...
Ever tried BitTorrent? µTorrent, Vuze? (BTW, it's illegal!) ‏
Ever wanted to get bootlegs? Rarities?
What about Radiohead, NIN?

What’s the cost of all this Free stuff?
Chris Anderson's Freeconomics
How expensive Free stuff is?
Cheap and Free = the penny gap
The different models:
Freemium
Advertising
Cross-subsidies
Zero marginal cost
Gift economy

What about the value chain?
Digital has shaken the traditional value chains
People can access thousands of items
People can compare prices
Distribution costs close to zero
The end of Pareto principle? (80-20 rule) ‏
The Long Tail Theory, does it really work?
Can pay-for and free business models coexist?
Why should I pay for something I can get for free?
What consequences for the media?

Michael Porter and the Internet…
“ The value chain requires a comparison of all the skills and resources the firm uses to perform each activity.”
Virtual Value Chain includes information as part of the competitive skills of the corporation (Rayport & Sviokla) ‏

A short focus on the Long Tail
A product will always find a buyer
A content will always find a user
The emergence of thousands of niches
Each niche will have it’s own Long Tail

Digital has definitely changed our lives
No turning back
Adapt or die
Survival of the fittest (Darwin...) ‏

Chapter #3
When Media turned Social

Some cornestones…
#1 Markets are conversations
#2 Markets consist of human beings, not demographic sectors
#6 The Internet is enabling conversations among human beings that were simply not possible in the era of mass media
#10 Markets are getting smarter, more informed, more organized…
#25 Companies need to come down from their Ivory Tower and talk to the people with whom they hope to create relationship
# 29 Elvis said it best: « We can’t go on together with suspicious minds »
(in « The Cluetrain Manifesto » – 1999) ‏

How brands become social?
Multiply touchpoints
Engage with consumers
Take the risk of conversation
Get feedback
Gather information
No more « I can't get no satisfaction »
Measure consumer satisfaction
Improve products

A few case studies…
Lego  Brand advocacy
Use your fans as promoters of your brand
Cherish them, treat them, love them,
they’ll love you in return!
Involve them in the creative process
Southwest Airlines  Nuts about Southwest
http://www.youtube.com/user/NutsAboutSouthwest Youtube
http://www.flickr.com/people/nutsaboutsouthwest/ Flickr
http://www.blogsouthwest.com/ Blog
Skittles  Forget the corporate web site, dive into social media

Focus on Skittles Homepage

Marketing 2.0 insight
Net Promoter Score  Focus on your core customers and fans

Do media need to turn social?
Media used to teach the truth
From the one way model
to the conversation model
OpEds, contributors…
Growing competition
of Millions of other voices
Forum threads and Godwin Laws...

How can media reach new users?
Multiply touchpoints
Media need to adapt to multiple channels
Paper
Web
Mobile devices
Screens
Digg-likes
Feed readers
Accept UGC:
Branded blog platform
Forums
Chats
Fan pages
Twitter

Social media pros & cons: lol time vs #fail time
#iranelection vs #MJ
The day Twitter's business plan landed on TechCrunch
The day Twitter and Facebook got hacked
VDM ...
Springbreak pics on FB and your professional future
Google finds and stores everything and claims « Be no evil »...
Big Bro's time?

Are you ready to be a producer?
Don't hate the Media, be the Media (Jello Biafra) ‏
Huge increase of available contents:
Pictures
Videos
Text
Games
Porn
Music
Etc…
No boundaries
New paradigm: everybody is a producer and a consumer
The best and the worst is available
Do it yourself!
Be aware of your power!
Go for it!

Chapter #4
What's next?

Idea#1: Catch the Zeitgeist
World has changed and will never be the same
You gotta make with it
Adapt! Use the tools!
Do your own datamining:
Google alerts
Twitter search
Feedreader (blogs, media...) ‏
Netvibes, iGoogle

Idea#2: Build your own digital ID
Brand yourself
Be ready for engagement
Engage
Regroup
Being a fan of Nutella and Arcade Fire means something
No need to have a name to be identified in the digital world (freaky, uh?) ‏

Idea#3: Think community
As a brand, as a marketer, you have to consider communities, not only target groups
As a media owner, you sell a community of users sharing common values and interests
Community has a value that can be monetized with care
Don't kill the geeks that lays golden bytes or threads
Work on your promoters, make money with them, love them, they’ll love you!

Idea#4: Think new territories
Brand marketers have dozens of new possibilities, Zillions of touchpoints
We shifted from a 5 media world to something more experimental and unstable
I know that I don't know anything (Socrates) ‏
Be curious
Think out of the box!

Idea#5: What else?
Cloud computing
Behavioral targeting
Branding vs performance
Beyond the CTR, what about CPE?
Scalable, accountable, lovable, applicable?
Digital world: where the wild things are!

Idea#6: The future is unwritten
Come as you are, choice is yours, don't be late (Nirvana) ‏
Be a technophile or a luddite?

That’s all!
Thanks for your attention!
Contact:
Antoine Dubuquoy
[email_address]
Twitter: dubuc64
www.dubucsblog.com
www.in-game.info

A Brief Overview of a Possible Digital Near Future

by Antoine Dubuquoy on Sep 12, 2009

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