Your Right, "Summon  a Wizard"  is in here! When was the last time that was updated?
<ul><li>Upgraded SLOSH </li></ul><ul><li>New inundation Modeling </li></ul><ul><li>Uniform Behavioral Analysis </li></ul><...
 
<ul><li>LIDAR </li></ul><ul><li>Demographic and Land Use Analysis </li></ul><ul><li>Critical Facilities Inventory  </li></...
Li ght  D etection  a nd  R anging LiDAR S ea,  L ake,  O verland  S urge from  H urricanes SLOSH Models Regional Evacuati...
 
 
<ul><li>LIDAR collected in coastal counties </li></ul><ul><li>SLOSH Model updated </li></ul><ul><li>Basin updated with LID...
<ul><li>Datum updated to NAVD88 </li></ul><ul><li>More than 130,000 hypothetical storms modeled statewide with varying for...
<ul><li> 2009 SLOSH Basin </li></ul>Comparison of SLOSH Grids Previous SLOSH Basin (1991) 
The New ArcGIS 9.3 User Interface………….
<ul><li>Processing is 90% automated </li></ul><ul><li>Computers 6X Faster than 3years ago (on average) </li></ul><ul><li>A...
<ul><li>Don’t expect new zones to compare to old zones – underlying elevation and higher resolution of grids may result in...
The Result From the Surge Inundation Model
The Result From a Surge Model Run:
Typical Storm Tide Atlas Page
<ul><li>The SLOSH is run by the National Hurricane Center, Tropical Prediction Laboratory in Miami, they work with the Nat...
<ul><li>What is SIM/Mapbook Extension and how it works (in layperson terms) </li></ul><ul><li>Outputs of SIM/Mapbook Exten...
 
Understanding of Risk These ranges are not fixed.
 
<ul><li>Evacuation zones are the most used </li></ul><ul><li>Product of an Evacuation Study. </li></ul><ul><li>Surge Zones...
Surge Zones and Evacuation Zones
<ul><li>T ransportation  I nterface for  </li></ul><ul><li>M odeling  E vacuations – TIME TIME will allow Growth Managemen...
<ul><li>Clearance Time to Shelter </li></ul><ul><li>In-County Clearance Time  </li></ul><ul><li>Out of County Clearance Ti...
New Tool to Measure Impacts <ul><li>Built on the Cube Voyager & Cube Avenue software, the Transportation Interface for Mod...
 
 
New Clearance Times – 2010
Nassau Evacuation Rates (%) Storm Threat Scenario Cat 1 Cat 2 Cat 3 Cat 4 Cat 5 Level A Surge Evacuation Zone 65 75 85 95 ...
<ul><li>Evacuation Planning is undergoing a significant change: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Population increases </li></ul></ul>...
<ul><li>Why did the NHC decouple storm surge from Saffir-Simpon Scale? </li></ul><ul><li>Factors that affect storm surge? ...
<ul><li>Fly your LiDAR before you begin the project. </li></ul><ul><li>Due to coarseness of SLOSH, development of digital ...
<ul><li>Jeffrey Alexander, Director </li></ul><ul><li>[email_address]   </li></ul><ul><li>Northeast Florida Regional Counc...
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9/8 THUR 10:45 | Statewide Regional Evacuation Study Program 3

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Jeffery Alexander

With an updated Evacuation Study for each of the 11 regions, Florida has one of the only statewide evacuation studies in the Nation. This session will educate participants on its fundamentals,
including HOW and WHY it was created and its implementation across a variety of planning disciplines. Explanations of the major components of the Evacuation Study, including its complex
evacuation transportation models, statewide coordination, behavioral surveys, and associated behavioral assumptions and advanced GIS modeling tools. Planners will gain a better understanding of the purpose, data and methodology of the Studies and how to implement its findings in their planning documents.

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  • Who is responsible for doing what?
  • This is raw LiDAR, displaying all points, symbolized by elevation. Trees, displayed in red, are higher than surrounding elevations. Building footprints are clearly seen in green. The yellow, rectangular area is a swimming pool. The white areas in the north and east are water, where no data was returned.
  • In this screen shot, only those points classified as ground are displayed. Note that these points are still symbolized by elevation, but a new ramp has been applied (in other words, the red in the bottom right hand corner isn’t the same height as the red points in the previous slide). From this filtered, bare-earth data, a digital terrain model is created.
  • 9/8 THUR 10:45 | Statewide Regional Evacuation Study Program 3

    1. 2. Your Right, &quot;Summon a Wizard&quot; is in here! When was the last time that was updated?
    2. 3. <ul><li>Upgraded SLOSH </li></ul><ul><li>New inundation Modeling </li></ul><ul><li>Uniform Behavioral Analysis </li></ul><ul><li>Consistent Methodology </li></ul><ul><li>New Mapping Technology </li></ul><ul><li>New Transportation Modeling </li></ul>
    3. 5. <ul><li>LIDAR </li></ul><ul><li>Demographic and Land Use Analysis </li></ul><ul><li>Critical Facilities Inventory </li></ul><ul><li>Regional Evacuation Transportation Network Analyses </li></ul><ul><li>Definition of relevant terms </li></ul><ul><li>Delineation of the five surge zones (1-5) and five evacuation zones (A-E) </li></ul><ul><li>Evacuation transportation analysis </li></ul><ul><li>Clearance and Evacuation Times </li></ul>
    4. 6. Li ght D etection a nd R anging LiDAR S ea, L ake, O verland S urge from H urricanes SLOSH Models Regional Evacuation Studies Analyses Vulnerability Behavioral Demographics Transportation Storm Surge Zones Data Processing Development for SLOSH NOAA MDL & NHC
    5. 9. <ul><li>LIDAR collected in coastal counties </li></ul><ul><li>SLOSH Model updated </li></ul><ul><li>Basin updated with LIDAR topography </li></ul>
    6. 10. <ul><li>Datum updated to NAVD88 </li></ul><ul><li>More than 130,000 hypothetical storms modeled statewide with varying forward speed, size and astronomical tide </li></ul><ul><li>Much higher SLOSH grid resolution </li></ul><ul><li>Twice as accurate elevation data in SLOSH (5 ft digital elevation model cells vs. 10 ft or greater previously) </li></ul>
    7. 11. <ul><li> 2009 SLOSH Basin </li></ul>Comparison of SLOSH Grids Previous SLOSH Basin (1991) 
    8. 12. The New ArcGIS 9.3 User Interface………….
    9. 13. <ul><li>Processing is 90% automated </li></ul><ul><li>Computers 6X Faster than 3years ago (on average) </li></ul><ul><li>Allows for more analysis </li></ul><ul><li>Creates new options in decision making </li></ul>
    10. 14. <ul><li>Don’t expect new zones to compare to old zones – underlying elevation and higher resolution of grids may result in very different zones. </li></ul><ul><li>View new zones over new contours ASAP. This usually calms your initial reaction, as you see how closely the zones follow these improved contours. </li></ul>New Surge Zones
    11. 15. The Result From the Surge Inundation Model
    12. 16. The Result From a Surge Model Run:
    13. 17. Typical Storm Tide Atlas Page
    14. 18. <ul><li>The SLOSH is run by the National Hurricane Center, Tropical Prediction Laboratory in Miami, they work with the National Meteorological Data Laboratory in Washington DC NOAA headquarters, to finalize the Data and cross check the results.  The LiDAR was collected by a series of professional firms and delivered to FDEM, a contractor conducted quality control and verified the data meet the standards established by the program.  Then SLOSH and LiDAR Digital Elevation Model Data are then combined in the SIM (the Surge Inundation Model), the results are reviewed by the FDEM and checked to ensure they meet the standards established by the program.  The SIM data is then processed through the Mapbook extension and we apply the template developed by Delta State University which aligns it into the geospatial National Grid, the outputs are then hand checked against the grid for alignment.  This produces the final product that is reviewed and accepted by the FDEM as complete. </li></ul>
    15. 19. <ul><li>What is SIM/Mapbook Extension and how it works (in layperson terms) </li></ul><ul><li>Outputs of SIM/Mapbook Extension and what they are used for </li></ul><ul><li>SIM margin for adverse deviation </li></ul><ul><li>Difference between storm surge and storm surge inundation </li></ul><ul><li>Difference between evacuation zones and storm surge inundation limits </li></ul><ul><li>Why change from NGVD 29 to NAVD 88. Practical implications. </li></ul><ul><li>Why it is crucial to know the datum when reading and comparing inundation or elevation maps </li></ul><ul><li>New “alpha” designations for evacuation zones </li></ul><ul><li>What is an inundation depth chart/map and its uses </li></ul>
    16. 21. Understanding of Risk These ranges are not fixed.
    17. 23. <ul><li>Evacuation zones are the most used </li></ul><ul><li>Product of an Evacuation Study. </li></ul><ul><li>Surge Zones are used as a basis to delineate those Evacuation Zones </li></ul><ul><li>Surge zones Tool allows a scientific and reproducible method to create inundation </li></ul><ul><li>GIS can cut the time to end product </li></ul>
    18. 24. Surge Zones and Evacuation Zones
    19. 25. <ul><li>T ransportation I nterface for </li></ul><ul><li>M odeling E vacuations – TIME TIME will allow Growth Management and Emergency Management planners to develop multiple scenarios and re-run each to determine the impacts of transportation plans and future growth on clearance times. </li></ul><ul><li>Terms Definitions – Statutory terms and Emergency Management terms. </li></ul><ul><li>Surge Inundation Model A tool that utilizes LiDAR and SLOSH data to determine surge inundation zones, which are used to create County evacuation zones. </li></ul>
    20. 26. <ul><li>Clearance Time to Shelter </li></ul><ul><li>In-County Clearance Time </li></ul><ul><li>Out of County Clearance Time </li></ul><ul><li>Regional Clearance Time </li></ul>
    21. 27. New Tool to Measure Impacts <ul><li>Built on the Cube Voyager & Cube Avenue software, the Transportation Interface for Modeling Evacuations (TIME) is the tool used to run future scenarios. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Impacts of population growth </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Roadway improvements/modifications </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Changes in behavioral assumptions </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Adjacent counties (not included) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Reverse laning </li></ul></ul>
    22. 28.
    23. 31. New Clearance Times – 2010
    24. 32. Nassau Evacuation Rates (%) Storm Threat Scenario Cat 1 Cat 2 Cat 3 Cat 4 Cat 5 Level A Surge Evacuation Zone 65 75 85 95 100 Level B Surge Evacuation Zone 65 70 85 95 95 Level C Surge Evacuation Zone 60 70 80 90 95 Level D Surge Evacuation Zone 60 70 80 90 90 Level E Surge Evacuation Zone 60 70 80 85 90 Inland of Surge Zones 55 60 80 85 90
    25. 33. <ul><li>Evacuation Planning is undergoing a significant change: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Population increases </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Communication evolution </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Storm Categories redefinition </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Zones: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Storm Surge </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Evacuation A, B, C, D, E,… </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Scenario Based Decision Making: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Need scenario based clearance times </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Need vulnerability scenarios </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Need situational forecasting </li></ul></ul>
    26. 34. <ul><li>Why did the NHC decouple storm surge from Saffir-Simpon Scale? </li></ul><ul><li>Factors that affect storm surge? </li></ul><ul><li>What is MOM? </li></ul><ul><li>What is MEOW? </li></ul><ul><li>What is included in NHC Advisory/NWS Local Statement? </li></ul><ul><li>What is Probabilistic Storm Surge? </li></ul><ul><li>The case for adhering to the Storm Surge Decision Support Wedge </li></ul>
    27. 35. <ul><li>Fly your LiDAR before you begin the project. </li></ul><ul><li>Due to coarseness of SLOSH, development of digital elevation models may proceed on initial LiDAR deliverables. </li></ul><ul><li>Consider expanding extent of SLOSH grids at beginning of project. </li></ul><ul><li>Make sure you collect LiDAR far enough inland. </li></ul><ul><li>Coordinate closely with NOAA MDL and NHC on everything SLOSH. </li></ul><ul><li>Work with local Emergency Managers to understand that new SLOSH runs modeling larger storms will result in increased risk. </li></ul>Lesson Learned
    28. 36. <ul><li>Jeffrey Alexander, Director </li></ul><ul><li>[email_address] </li></ul><ul><li>Northeast Florida Regional Council </li></ul><ul><li>SRESP Statewide Coordinator </li></ul><ul><li>904 279-0885 ext 134 </li></ul>

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