Local Market Trends San Francisco for June/July

1. JUNE/JULY 2011
Inside This Issue Robb Fleischer
> LOCAL MARKET TRENDS ..................... 1 American Marketing Systems, Inc.
> MORTGAGE RATE OUTLOOK ............... 2
2800 Van Ness Avenue
San Francisco, CA 94109
> HOME STATISTICS .............................. 2 (415) 447-2009
> FORECLOSURE STATS ........................ 3 rfleischer@amsiemail.com
http://www.amsires.com/staff/robb
> CONDO STATISTICS ............................ 3 DRE #01403882
> DOM & SP/LP CHARTS ..................... 4
The Real Estate Report
local market trends Trends at a Glance
(Single-family Homes)
May 11 Apr 11 May 10
SAN FRANCISCO Home Sales: 209 191 236
Median Price: $ 715,000 $ 725,000 $ 750,000
Home Prices Down, Condo/Loft Prices Up Again Av erage Price: 1,002,056 1,025,906 987,896
Sale/List Price Ratio: 99.0% 99.6% 99.8%
The median price for single-family re-sale homes IN THE CHART BELOW…
fell 1.4% in May from April. Year-over-year, the the green shows momentum for home sales while Day s on Market: 64 67 56
median price was off for the ninth month in a row, the purple line shows momentum for the median (Lofts/Tow nhomes/TIC)
falling 4.7%. The average price was up 1.4% indi- price for single-family, re-sale homes. May 11 Apr 11 May 10
cating that more higher priced homes sold last Condo Sales: 243 231 288
month. PRICING MOMENTUM… Median Price: $ 695,000 $ 670,000 $ 646,000
after peaking in September, was flat at -1. Pricing
The median price for condos/lofts rose 5.5% from Av erage Price: 846,713 802,247 726,442
momentum for condos/lofts has been flat since last
April and was up 7.5% compared to last May. The October, vacillating between 0 and -1.
Sale/List Price Ratio: 98.2% 98.0% 97.7%
average price was up a whopping 16.6%. Day s on Market: 78 71 72
Home sales rose 9.4% from April, but were off,
MORE STATISTICS…
year-over-year, by 11.4%. Year-to-date, home Average days on market dropped three days to 64
sales are down 4.1% compared to the first five days.
months of 2010. For complete information on a particular neighbor-
The sales price to list price ratio lost 0.6 of a point
hood or property, call.
to 99%.
SALES MOMENTUM…
Home sales momentum continued trending down- CONDO/LOFT STATISTICS…
ward in May, falling four points to –7. Condo/loft Condo/loft sales fell 15.6% year-over-year. Year-to-
momentum after peaking at +31 last August, date, condo/loft sales are up 4.6%.
dropped seven points to 0.
The sales price to list price ratio rose 0.2 of a point
WE CALCULATE… to 98.2%.
momentum by using a 12-month moving average Remember, the real estate market is a matter of
to eliminate seasonality. By comparing this year’s neighborhoods and houses. No two are the same.
12-month moving average to last year’s, we get a
percentage showing market momentum.
San Francisco Homes: Sales Momentum
25.0%
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
-5.0% 0 FMAMJ JA SOND0 FMAMJ JA SOND0 FMAMJ JA SOND0 FMAMJ JA SOND1 FMAMJ JA SOND1 FMAM
6 7 8 9 0 1
-10.0%
-15.0%
-20.0%
-25.0%
Sales Pricing © 2010 rereport.com
Robb Fleischer | rfleischer@amsiemail.com | (415) 447-2009

2. The Real Estate Report
Mortgage Rate Outlook
May 27, 2011 -- HSH.com's broad-market mortgage fallen to just 6.5 months available, and the 175,000
30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates tracker -- our weekly Fixed-Rate Mortgage Indicator actual units on the market is the lowest figure in al-
04-11
(FRMI) -- found that the overall average rate for 30- most 50 years. Eventually, when demand for new
01-11 year fixed-rate mortgages slipped back by two more homes does return, a strong spate of homebuilding is
10-10 basis points this week, landing at an average of to be expected. Here's hoping it comes sooner than
07-10 4.88%, a fresh 2011 low. later, but 2012 seems to be the earliest at this point
04-10
for the turn in homebuilding.
01-10 FHA-backed 30-year fixed-rate mortgages are driving
10-09 sales of homes to first-time homebuyers, and also As to what happens, we'll need to wait and see. For
07-09
04-09
giving low-equity refinancers an option to pursue. now, mortgage rates are even more favorable than
01-09 Rates for these product also slipped back by two they have been at any time in 2011. If you can, it
10-08 basis points to finish the week at 4.49%. might be a good time to get your purchase or re-
07-08 finance done reasonably soon. Next week, we get
04-08 Given the wide differential in interest rates, at least
both end-of-the-month and first-of the-month infor-
01-08 some borrowers should be considering hybrid 5/1
10-07 mation, including the employment report. It's a holi-
ARMs; whose a five-year fixed periods now average
07-07 day-shortened week, and there doesn't seem to be a
just 3.49%, down three hundredths of a percentage
04-07 likelihood of a big economic surprise on the horizon,
01-07 point from last week. Certainly, there are savings to
so mortgage rates will probably continue to drift.
10-06 be had for borrowers willing to accept some future
07-06 interest-rate risk.
04-06
01-06 Of course, folks without jobs don't buy homes. It
10-05 would appear that even folks with jobs are staying
07-05
04-05
away, too. New Home Sales did bounce 7.2% higher
01-05 in April when compared against March, but the
3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 323,000 annualized rate of sale was certainly nothing
to get excited about, since something on the order of
triple that would be closer to normal. Inventories has
San Francisco Homes: Sold Prices & Unit Sales
(3-month moving average — $000's)
The chart above shows the Na-
tional monthly average for 30- $1,500 300
year fixed rate mortgages as $1,300 250
compiled by HSH.com. The av-
erage includes mortgages of all $1,100 200
sizes, including conforming, $900 150
"expanded conforming," and
jumbo. $700 100
$500 50
$300 0
0 FMAMJ JA SOND0 FMAMJ JA SOND0 FMAMJ JA SOND0 FMAMJ JA SOND1 FMAMJ JA SOND1 FMAM
6 7 8 9 0 1
Ave Med Units
May Sales Statistics
(Single-family Homes)
Prices Unit Change from last year Change from last month
Median Average Sales DOM SP/LP Median Average Sales Median Average Sales
San Francisco $ 715,000 $1,002,056 209 64 99.0% -4.7% 1.4% -11.4% -1.4% -2.3% 9.4%
D1: Northw est $ 917,500 $1,074,775 20 54 99.8% 8.3% -12.6% 11.1% -33.5% -28.8% 0.0%
D2: Central West $ 675,000 $ 720,994 33 55 99.9% -6.3% -2.0% -34.0% 6.1% 5.0% 26.9%
D3: Southw est $ 468,500 $ 544,052 17 107 97.9% -13.6% -14.9% -5.6% -22.7% -7.9% -5.6%
D4: Tw in Peaks $ 785,000 $ 893,158 30 54 102.4% -11.5% -15.4% 11.1% 1.9% -6.0% 20.0%
D5: Central $1,260,000 $1,418,100 34 42 100.3% -12.3% -7.9% 41.7% 0.9% -7.8% 25.9%
D6: Central North $ 661,000 $ 813,667 3 58 97.7% -51.1% -38.1% -40.0% -61.4% -57.8% -25.0%
D7: North $3,244,769 $3,463,030 9 81 93.8% 10.0% -3.3% -18.2% 38.2% 14.2% 12.5%
D8: Northeast $1,806,500 $2,794,850 4 66 99.6% -21.5% 21.5% 100.0% 27.9% 63.8% 0.0%
D9: Central East $ 725,000 $ 839,360 25 60 99.5% -10.7% -0.9% 13.6% 4.3% 11.9% 13.6%
Page 2 D10: Southeast $ 424,000 $ 415,024 34 89 97.1% -17.7% -15.2% -43.3% 1.0% -7.9% -8.1%

3. San Francisco Homes: Year-Over-Year Median Sales Price Change
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
0 FMAMJ JA SOND0 FMAMJ JA SOND0 FMAMJ JA SOND0 FMAMJ JA SOND1 FMAMJ JA SOND1 FMAM
-10.0% 6 7 8 9 0 1
-20.0%
-30.0%
-40.0%
FORECLOSURE STATISTICS
Notices of default, the first step in the foreclosure pro- property will be sold to the third party; if not, it will go
cess, in San Francisco decreased 21.8% in April from back to the bank and become part of that bank's REO
the year before. There were 154 notices filed. inventory.
Notices of sale, which set the date and time of an auc- In March, cancellations were up 22.4% from the year
tion, and serve as the homeowner's final notice before before, which is a positive sign.
sale, declined 23.9% from March, and were down 1.2%
Properties going back-to-bank declined 1.8% year-over-
year-over-year. There were 162 notices filed.
year.
After the filing of a Notice of Trustee Sale, there are
The total number of homes that have had a notice of
only three possible outcomes. First, the sale can be
default filed increased by 1.1% compared to last year.
cancelled for reasons that include a successful loan
modification or short sale, a filing error, or a legal re- The total number of homes scheduled for sale de-
quirement to re-file the notice after extended postpone- creased by 5.6%.
ments. Alternatively, if the property is taken to sale, the
bank will place the opening bid. If a third party, typically
an investor, bids more than the bank's opening bid, the (Continued on page 4)
San Francisco Condos: Sold Prices & Unit Sales
(3-month moving average — $000's)
$1,000 350
$900 300 Table Definitions
_______________
$800 250
$700 200
Median Price
$600 150 The price at which 50% of pric-
$500 100 es were higher and 50%were
lower.
$400 50
$300 0 Average Price
0 FMAMJ JA SOND0 FMAMJ JA SOND0 FMAMJ JA SOND0 FMAMJ JA SOND1 FMAMJ JA SOND1 FMAM Add all prices and divide by the
6 7 8 9 0 1 number of sales.
Ave Med Units
May Sales Statistics SP/LP
Sales price to list price ratio or
(Condos/TICs/Co-ops/Lofts) the price paid for the property
Prices Unit Change from last year Change from last month divided by the asking price.
Median Average Sales DOM SP/LP Median Average Sales Median Average Sales
San Francisco $ 695,000 $ 846,713 243 78 98.2% 7.6% 16.6% -15.6% 3.7% 5.5% 5.2% DOI
Days of Inventory, or how many
D1: Northw est $ 592,500 $ 752,538 13 79 97.6% -19.1% 4.6% 8.3% -0.4% 1.6% 85.7% days it would take to sell all the
D2: Central West $ 746,500 $ 746,500 2 46 99.6% 40.6% 42.7% -66.7% -5.2% -3.1% -50.0% property for sale at the current
rate of sales.
D3: Southw est $ 380,000 $ 348,750 4 66 97.9% 4.1% -5.4% -33.3% 22.6% 15.0% -33.3%
D4: Tw in Peaks $ 345,000 $ 355,143 7 137 96.7% -19.9% -19.9% -30.0% -25.0% -25.0% 40.0% Pend
D5: Central $ 848,750 $ 858,914 44 68 100.1% 12.0% 10.0% 4.8% 9.4% 5.8% 12.8% Property under contract to sell
that hasn’t closed escrow.
D6: Central North $ 708,250 $ 706,192 22 67 99.2% 16.2% 16.2% -31.3% 18.0% 16.0% 4.8%
D7: North $1,063,750 $1,209,209 30 62 96.8% 14.7% 14.1% 3.4% -3.3% 3.5% 36.4%
Inven
D8: Northeast $ 712,000 $ 919,765 46 79 98.3% 13.9% 8.2% -4.2% 12.1% 3.6% 12.2% Number of properties actively
D9: Central East $ 590,000 $ 793,774 73 87 97.8% -9.2% 15.9% -16.1% -11.2% 0.0% -11.0% for sale as of the last day of the
month.
D10: Southeast $ 367,450 $ 367,450 2 130 94.8% -14.3% -9.5% #VALUE! 18.5% 20.5% -33.3%

4. THE REAL ESTATE REPORT
San Francisco
Robb Fleischer
American Marketing Systems, Inc.
2800 Van Ness Avenue
San Francisco, CA 94109
Go online to see the full report
with the district by district breakdown:
HTTP://WWW.AMSIRES.COM/STAFF/ROBB
(Continued from page 3)
San Francisco Homes: Sales Price/List Price Ratio
108.0%
Unfortunately, the number of homes owned by 106.0%
the bank rose 20% year-over-year. Banks now 104.0%
own upwards of 750 properties in San Francis- 102.0%
co. At the current rate of sales, this is almost a 100.0%
two month supply. 98.0%
96.0%
While the total number of properties which have 94.0%
had either a foreclosure notice or a notice of 92.0%
sale have declined, the increase in the number 90.0%
0FMAMJJASOND0 FMAMJJASOND0FMAMJJASOND0 FMAMJJASOND1FMAMJJASOND1FMAM
of properties going back to the back is worri- 6 7 8 9 0 1
some.
San Francisco Homes: Days on Market
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
0 FMAMJ JASOND0 FMAMJ JASOND0 FMAMJ JASOND0 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAM
6 7 8 9 0 1
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