This Lecture is usefull for Postgraduate as well as for the Students of Basic Sciences and MBBS/

1. MBBS.USMLE, DPH, Dip-Card, M.Phil, FCPS
Assct: Professor Community Medicine
Services Institute Of Medical Sciences
Lahore.
Ex-Asst Professor Community Medicine
UmulQurrah University Makka Saudi Arabia

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3. Demography And
Population of
Pakistan
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4. 4
COUNTRY INTRODUCTION
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5. What is Population?
A group of individuals
or items that share one or more
characteristics from which data can be
gathered and analyzed.
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6. World’s most populous countries are,
China India USA
Indonesia Brazil Pakistan
Bangladesh Russia Nigeria3/16/2017 6DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED
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7.  Pakistan is world 6th most populous country.
 With an Estimated population of 188 million at jun-
2016.
 Natural growth rate 2.05%.
 With the same growth rate Pakistan will become the
4th largest nation in 2050
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8.  With the median age of around 20 years.
Therefor, it is called a “young” country.
 Currently approximately 106 million below the
age of 30 years.
 Total working age of population is 121.01
million.
 Labour force estimated 55 million as of 2014-
15.
 Proportion of population residing in urban
centres has risen to 36%.3/16/2017 8DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED
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9. Factors affecting Distribution of population
Topography Climate
Soil Water
Minerals
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10. Social
Areas of better housing, education and health facilities are
closely populated.
Cultural
Places with religious and cultural significance attract people.
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11. What is Demography?
 Demography is the study of human
populations (their size, composition
and distribution across place, and the
process through which populations
change.
 Births, deaths and migration are the
‘big three’ of demography, jointly
producing population stability or
change3/16/2017 11DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED
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12. Demography is scientific study of
human population
It focuses on 3 phenomena:
i. Changes in population size
ii. Composition of population
iii.Population distribution in space
Important ‘demographic processes’
include: fertility, mortality, marriage,
education & social mobility3/16/2017 12DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED
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13. In a broader sense, additional characteristics such
as ethnicity (race, mother tongue), social
characteristics (marital status, literacy,
educational attainment, women’s status), and
economic characteristics (employment status,
occupation, income) also need to be considered
when describing population characteristics
1. Census
2. National Survey
3. Registration of vital events
4. Demographic Studies3/16/2017 13DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED
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14. Population studies are concerned not only with
population variables but also with relationships
between population changes & other variables –
social, economic, political, biological, genetic,
geographical, environmental, health & the like
Definition of Key Words
 Size refers to the number persons in the population
 Distribution refers to the arrangement of the
population in space at a given time
 Structure is the distribution of population among its sex
& age groupings
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15. Change is the growth or decline of the total
population or one of its structural units. The
components of change total population are births,
deaths, & migrations
Age-Sex Composition of a population refers to the
proportion of males & females in different age-groups.
It has a direct bearing on social, economic, health needs
of communities or countries. In an “old” population, for
example, the society has to arrange for the care of the
elderly, & the country’s health system must be
organized accordingly. In a “young” population, on the
other hand, the country has to provide more schools,
immunizations, & economic support for the young
Net-Migration refers to the total number of persons
added or subtracted from a population as a result of
the combined effect of immigration & emigration
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16. Urbanization refers to mass migration of rural
population into urban centers resulting in
increasing the urban population & growth of cities
Population Growth Rate (%/ year) is the rate
at which a given population is expected to
increase in a given period of time.
Population Doubling Time refers to the time
that would take for a population to double.
Because the population increase is on the
compound interest formula, a 1% per year
increase would cause the population to double in
about 70 years. If the population is increasing at
3% per year, than the doubling time will be 23.3
years
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17. Population Pyramid is a pictorial presentation
of the age-sex composition of a population
Replacement Level Fertility (or Zero
population growth) is activated when a couple has
two births during their reproductive life, just
enough to replace themselves. At a community scale,
the replacement level is considered when there are, on the
average, 2.1 births per woman, to compensate for child
deaths
Momentum of Population Growth is the
characteristic of population growth when a sharp
decline in births does not bring in an immediate
reduction in natural increase3/16/2017 17DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED
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18. There are four ways in which the number of people in
an area can change during two time periods t0 & t1
Pt1 = Pto + (B – D) + (IM – OM)
B = number of live births to mothers in the area
D = number of residents died
IM = number of persons moving into the area fro permanent
residence
OM = number of persons moving out of the area to live
elsewhere
Thus the population of an area may change due to
natural reasons (B – D) known as natural increase or
due to migration (IM – OM) known as net-migration.
Subsequently:
Population Growth = Natural Increase
+ Net Migration3/16/2017 18DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED
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19. Population Growth Rate
…is a measurement that combines both natural increase
and net migration to calculate the overall growth of
a country’s population.
To calculate:
Population Growth Rate = natural increase rate +
net immigration rate/1000 x 100 (%)
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20. POPULATION DENSITY

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21. While characteristic is an attribute of an individual
(e.g. male, young, healthy, employed etc),
composition is a property of a group of people. It
describes how the total given population is
constituted (e.g. 51% males, 20% below age 5, 85%
healthy 7& 30% employed etc).
Dependency Ratio is an index summarizing an age
distribution. Strictly, this is he ratio of population
who are economically not active to those who are
economically active. However, due to the difficulties
in defining economic activity in many countries,
especially when international comparisons are
made, a ratio of age group is used instead:3/16/2017 21DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED
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22. Population Composition (Cont’d)
Dependency Ratio
= Children + Elderly X 100
Working Age
= Pop below 15 + 65 & above X 100
Pop 15 – 64 years
Dependency Ratio of Pakistan = 95.1
Dependency Ratio of UK = 66.5
Sex Ratio: The overall sex ratio is simply the ratio of
males to females in the population & is calculated by
taking the number of males in a population & dividing it
by the number of females in the same population
Sex Ratio = Number of Males X 100
Number of Females3/16/2017 22DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED
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23. Demographic Cycle
World history suggests that every nation passes
through a demographic cycle. The stages are:
1.High Stationary Stage: characterized by
high birth rate and high death rate
2.Early Expanding: The death rate begins to
decline while birth rate remains unchanged
3.Late Expanding: The death rate declined
still further and birth rate tend to fall
4.Low Stationary Stage: Low birth and low
death rates
5.Declining Stage: birth rate is lower than
the death rate and population starts
declining
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24. Old Balance: (High fertility & High Mortality)
A large supply of births was necessary to compensate
for the large number of deaths. MMR & IMR extremely
high
New Balance: (Low fertility & Low Mortality)
Represents an improved condition of human efficiency
& health, with fewer deaths considerably less efforts
required to bring a generation to maturity. Production
of agricultural & industrial commodities is greater & life
style is more comfortable
Imbalance: (High Fertility & Low Mortality)
In between old & new balance is the period of rapid
natural increase. This growth is helpful for under-
populated nations. Too fast growth of population
leading economic, social & political chaos ( being faced
by numerous developing countries including Pakistan)3/16/2017 24DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED
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25. Europe, Japan &
USA
Zero or very
slow
LowLow
Europe 19th century, East
Asian countries in the mid
20th century
SlowLowDeclining
Europe 18th century,
Pakistan 1970s
RapidLowHigh
Europe 17th century, India
1930s – 40s
SlowDecliningHigh
Europe prior to 15th
century, most other
developing countries
till the 19th century
Zero to very
slow
HighHigh
ExampleNatural
Increase
Death RatesBirth Rates
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26. 26
Demographic Transition Model
Stage 1 : Pre
industrializa
tion: Stable
population
growth
Stage 2:
Rapid
population
growth
Stage 3:
Continued and
decreasing
population
growth
Stage 4:
Stable low
population
growth
CBR
High Birth
rates
High Birth
rates
Falling Birth rates Low Birth rates
Family Size
-- planned
Family
Planning --
The general
plan is to
have many
kids
Family
Planning --
The general
plan is to have
many kids
Family Planning --
The plan is to have
fewer kids
Trends
stabilize with
2 kid families
or less
Infant
Mortality
Rate/
Fertility
Rate
Many children
because few
survive, high
fertility rate
Still many kids
because
expect few to
survive high
fertility
Lower infant
mortality rates --
less pressure to
have children,
fertility declines
Small family
size low
fertility rate
Family
Economics
Many children
are needed to
work the land
Children are
still useful for
work
Increased
mechanization and
industrialization
means less need
for labor/kids
Women are
working in
great
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27. 27
Demographic Transition
Model
Stage 1 : Pre
industrializati
on: Stable
population
growth
Stage 2: Rapid
population
growth
Stage 3:
Continued and
decreasing
population
growth
Stage 4: Stable
low population
growth
CBR
High Birth
rates
High Birth
rates
Falling Birth
rates
Low Birth rates
Status of
Kids
Children are a
sign of virility &
status and old
age insurance
Children are a
sign of virility &
status and old
age insurance
Increased desire
for material
possessions and
less desire for
large families
Kids are an
expense &
“bling”
Gender
roles
Strong sex
roles
Strong sex
roles
Emancipation of
women
Emancipation of
women3/16/2017 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED
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28
Stage 1 : Pre
industrializatio
n: Stable
population
growth
Stage 2:
Rapid
population
growth
Stage 3:
Continued
and
decreasing
population
growth
Stage 4:
Stable low
populatio
n growth
CDR High Death
Rates
Falling
Death Rates
Death rates
Low
Death rates
Low
Health
Conditi
ons
Poor Diet &
Sanitation,
Famine and
Disease
Improved
diet,
sanitation &
medical
care
Slight
improvemen
t
No change
Transp
ort
Faciliti
es
Limited
transport, trade
& travel
Improved
transport to
move food
and doctors
Slight
Improvemen
t
Stable
Child
Deaths
High child
mortality before
age 5
A decrease
in child
mortality
Child
mortality
very low
Stable
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31. Basic Terms
Crude Birth Rate
Crude Death Rate
Rate of Natural Increase
Infant Mortality Rate
Fertility Rate
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33. Transition 1
 Both high birth rates and death rates fluctuate in the first stage of
the population model giving a small population growth (shown by the
small total population graph). There are many reasons for this:
 little access to birth control
 many children die in infancy (high infant mortality) so parents tend
to have more children to compensate in the hopes that more will live
 children are needed to work on the land to grow food for the family
 children are regarded as a sign of virility in some cultures
 religious beliefs (e.g. Roman Catholics and Hindus) encourage large
families
 high death rates, especially among children because of disease,
famine, poor diet, poor hygiene, little medical science.
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34. Stage 2
 Birth rates remain high, but death rates fall
rapidly causing a high population growth (as shown
by the total population graph). The reasons for this
could be:
 improvements in medical care - hospitals,
medicines, etc.
 improvements in sanitation and water supply
 quality and quantity of food produced rises
 transport and communications improve the
movements of food and medical supplies
 decrease in infant mortality.
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35. Stage 3
 Birth rates now fall rapidly while death rates continue to fall.
The total population begins to peak and the population
increase slows to a constant. The reasons for this could be:
 increased access to contraception
 lower infant mortality rate means there is less need to have a
bigger family
 industrialization and mechanization means fewer laborers are
required
 the desire for material possessions takes over the desire for
large families as wealth increases
 equality for women means that they are able to follow a
career path rather than feeling obligated to have a family.
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36. Stage 4
 Both birth rates and death rates remain
low, fluctuating with 'baby booms' and
epidemics of illnesses and disease.
 This results in a steady population.
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37. Stage 5?
 stage 5 was not originally thought of as
part of the DTM, but some northern
countries are now reaching the stage where
total population is declining where birth
rates have dropped below death rates. One
such country is Germany, which has taken in
foreign workers to fill jobs. The UK's
population is expected to start declining by
2021.
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38. Examples
 Population changes over time and space and the
DTM can show both of these. Examples for both of
these are shown below. Firstly, examples of
countries that can be classed as exhibiting the
population traits now, are shown as an example of
how population can change over SPACE. Secondly,
the dates the UK passed through each stage are
indicated as an example of how population in one
country can change over TIME.
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39.  Stage 1
Ethiopia / Bangladesh
UK: pre-1780
 Stage 2
Sri Lanka / Brazil
UK: 1780 - 1880
 Stage 3
Uruguay / China
UK: 1880 - 1940
Stage 4
Canada / Japan
UK: post-1940
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40. World Population Trend/
Population Dynamics:
2000 years ago 250 million population
1800 978 million
1900 1650 million
1950 2.5 billion
1970 3.6 billion
1980 4.4 billion
1985 4.8 billion
2000 To 2016 6 billion to 7.4 billion
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41.  The rampant population growth is viewed as the
greatest obstacle to the economic & social
development of the majority of peoples in the
underdeveloped world
 Approximately 95% of population growth is in
developing countries
 Currently, 1/3 of the world population is < 15, &
will soon enter the reproductive bracket, giving more
potential for population growth
 The expected number of births per woman, at
current fertility rate is:
 Africa 6.1
 Asia 3.2
 Latin America 3.4
 North America 2.0
 Europe 1.63/16/2017 41DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED
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42. Economic implications
Due to population explosion there are
 Short term pressure affects during 2-3
decade
 Long term over next century and beyond
economic affects
Demographic Implications
In population with low birth and death
rate, 20-30% of population is under 15;
9-13% is 65 or more. The median age
for this population is 32 and there is
increased demand for senior citizen
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43. Environmental / Ecological Implications
Due to population explosion there are
 Short term pressure affects during 2-3 decade
 Long term over next century and beyond
economic affects
Social / Political Implications
In population with low birth and death rate,
20-30% of population is under 15; 9-13%
is 65 or more. The median age for this
population is 32 and there is increased
demand for senior citizens
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44. Age Pakistan U.K.
0 -14 44.5 22.2
15 – 64 51.2 60.0
65 & above 4.2 17.83/16/2017 44DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED
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45. Population Of Pakistan
 The Population in Pakistan was reported at
188.89 billions person in 2015, according to the
International Monetary Fund (IMF)
 During 2016 Pakistan population is estimated to
be increased by 2.982 billions people and
became to 190.831 billions according to
POPULATION CENSUS ORGANIZATION.
 In beginning of 2017, Pakistan Population is
expected to be 192.814 billions person.
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46. Population of Pakistan (cont’d)
 In general, it has also been found that
where there is rapid population growth
and high fertility rates, poverty incidence
is also highest.
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47. Population dynamics in 2015
According to our estimations, daily change rates of
Pakistan population in 2015 will be the following:
 12 767 live births average per day (531.97 in a hour)
 3 561 deaths average per day (148.38 in a hour)
 -1 034 emigrants average per day (-43.10 in a hour)
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48. Population Causes Over Population Obstacles
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49. Population Causes Over Population Obstacles (cont’d)
 Dangerous for economic development
 Lower per capital income.
 Low rate of savings.
 Problems for education sector.
 Housing problems.
 Food shortage
 Population and capital formation.
 Unemployment.
 Population and environment.
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50. Demography Of Pakistan
 Nationality
 Pakistani
 Ethnic groups
 Punjabi 44.68%, Pashtun (Pathan) 15.42%, Sindhi
14.1%, Sariaki 8.38%, Muhajirs 7.57%, Balochi
3.57%, other 6.28%
 Religions
 Muslim 96.4% (Sunni 85-90%, Shia 10-15%),
other (includes Christian and Hindu) 3.6%.
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51. Demography Of Pakistan (cont’d)
 Age structure
• 0-14 years: 33.3% (male 33.59 billions/female 31.79
billions)
• 15-24 years: 21.5% (male 21.80 billions/female
20.46 billions)
• 25-54 years: 35.7% (male 36.39 billions/female
33.63 billions)
• 55-64 years: 5.1% (male 5.008 billions/female 5.04
billions)
• 65 years and over: 4.3% (male 3.95 billions/female
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52. Demography Of Pakistan (cont’d)
 Languages
 Punjabi 48%,
 Sindhi 12%,
 Saraiki (a Punjabi variant) 10%,
 Pashtu 8%,
 Urdu (official) 8%,
 Balochi 3%,
 Hindko 2%,
 Brahui 1%,
 English (official), Burushaski, and other 8%
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53. Demography Of Pakistan (cont’d)
 Literacy ( the ability to read and write)
 definition: age 15 and over can read and write
total population: 54.9%
male: 68.6%
female: 40.3%
 Education expenditures
 2.7% of GDP (Gross Domestic Product) (2009)
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54. Demography Of Pakistan (cont’d)
Educational institutions by kind
 Primary schools: 156,592
 Middle schools: 320,611
 High schools: 23,964
 College of Arts and Sciences: 3,213
 Degree colleges: 1,202
 Technical and vocational institutions: 3,125
 Universities: 153 ( recognize by HEC)
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55. Demography Of Pakistan (cont’d)
Health expenditures
 2.6% of GDP
Urbanization
Urban population
 36.2% of total population (2011).
Rate of urbanization
 2.68% annual rate of change (2010-15 est.)
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56. Let’s Practice...
Calculate Doubling Time:
Country
70/population
growth rate
Doubling Time
Canada 70 / 0.8%
Togo 70 / 2.4%
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57. Thank You

58. POPULATION PYRAMIDS

59. Understanding Population
Pyramids

60. World Population
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61. Objectives
WHAT is a population pyramid?
HOW to read a population pyramid?
Recognise SHAPES of population
pyramids.
IMPORTANCE of population
pyramids.
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62. What is a population pyramid?
 It is a diagram that gives information about
the proportion of males and females in
each age group.
 Also shows:
- proportion of young people (0 -14 )
- proportion of working people (15 – 59)
- proportion of elderly people (60+)
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63. Population Pyramids
• A population pyramid is two back-to-back
bar graphs, one showing the number of
males and one showing females in a
particular population in five-year age groups
(also called cohorts).
• A great deal of information about the
population broken down by age and sex can
be read from a population pyramid, and this
can shed light on the extent of its
development.
– Birth rate trends
– Death rate trends
– Number of economic dependents (<15, >65)3/16/2017 63DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED
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64. What is a population pyramid?
Vertical Axis - Age Groups
Horizontal Axis – Percentage / number
Young dependents
Working population
Elderly dependents
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65. Population Pyramids
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66. How to read a population pyramid?
 Read the title e.g. country or city or racial
group
 Comment on general shape of the
pyramid
 Note the proportion of people in various
age groups
 Note the sex ratio
 Interpret the data
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67. Types of Population Pyramid
1. Triangular-shaped
2. Beehive-shaped Pyramid
3. Rectangular-shaped Pyramid
Shape of pyramids is controlled by
 births,
 deaths, &
 migrations.
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68. Reading Population Pyramids
 Shape of sides:
 Concave sides indicate a high death rate and convex sides
indicate a low death rate.
 If the population pyramid exhibits concave sides it
indicates a high death rate.
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69. Dependency Ratio
 The working age of people varies.
 Traditionally people worked until they were 65 years
old.
 The common trend now is for people to retire closer
to 55 years of age.
 However, for statistic purposes we recognize people
between 15 and 65 as the workers of a society.
 People under 15 and over 65 are considered
dependant upon the working population.
 The dependency ratio (DR) of a population indicates
how many people are dependant upon every 100
workers.
The formula is
DR = (pop. 0-14) + (pop. 65+)*100
(pop. 15-64)
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70. Descriptions
 Bumps in the sides:
 Irregularities in the sides indicate a demographic
anomaly.
 The 30 -50 age group in the population pyramid
represents the baby boom.
 This bump will travel upward as the baby boomers age.
 Classification:
 Indicates standard of living as described above.
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71. Triangular-shaped Pyramid
(Broad-based Pyramid)
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72. Broad-based Pyramid
Title: India, 2000
Shape: Broad Base - high birth rates
Narrow Top - small elderly pop
- high death rate
Proportion: - Large proportion of young
- high young dependency
ratio
Sex Ratio: Balance pyramid - Balance sex
ratio
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73. Population Pyramids
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75. Population Pyramids in Transition
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76. Each pyramid tells a story
about the
past, present & future
of a country & its people.

77. Male Female
Population in millions
In this
country the
number of
people in each
age group is
about the
same.
The largest
category of
people were
born about
40 years
ago.
In this country there is a low Birth Rate
and a low Death Rate.
This population pyramid is typical of
countries in the richer parts of the world
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78. Population in millions
Male Female
In this
country the
birth rate is
decreasing.
In the future the
elderly people will make
up the largest section
of the population in this
country.
This is happening
more and more in
many of the world’s
richer countries.
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79. Male Female
Population in thousands
This country has a large
number of temporary
workers. These are people
who migrate here especially
to find a job.
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80. Population Pyramids –
Depression
Baby Boom
Aging Population
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81. Baby boomers?
 Who are the baby boomers?
 Baby boomers are the demographic
group born during the post–World
War II baby boom, approximately
between the years 1946 and 1964.
This includes people who
are between 52 and 70 years
old in 2017, according to the U.S.
Census Bureau.
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82. Importance of Population Pyramids
 Policy Planning
~ future housing estates
~ future schools
~ future jobs
 Comparison with other countries
~ developed (US) vs developing (India)
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87. 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10
0-4 yrs.
5-9 yrs.
10-14 yrs.
15-19 yrs.
20-24 yrs
25-29 yrs
30-34 yrs.
35-39 yrs.
40-44 yrs.
45-49 yrs.
50-54 yrs.
55-59 yrs.
60-64 yrs.
65-69 yrs.
70-74 yrs.
75-79 yrs.
80+ yrs.
AGE
PERCENT
Males(%)
Females(%)
Italy, 2000
1
2
3
4
5
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88. Analysis of the Italy’s
Pyramid
1. Decline in Birth Rate
2. Baby Boom
3. Low Death Rate with increasing
number of elderly.
4. More women due to: a. longer life
expectancy and World Wars (I and
II)
5. More 75-79 yrs than 0-4 yrs.
Signs of a future worker shortage
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89. 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10
0-4 yrs.
5-9 yrs.
10-14 yrs.
15-19 yrs.
20-24 yrs
25-29 yrs
30-34 yrs.
35-39 yrs.
40-44 yrs.
45-49 yrs.
50-54 yrs.
55-59 yrs.
60-64 yrs.
65-69 yrs.
70-74 yrs.
75-79 yrs.
80+ yrs.
AGE
PERCENT
Males(%)
Females(%)
Italy, 2025
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90. 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10
0-4 yrs.
5-9 yrs.
10-14 yrs.
15-19 yrs.
20-24 yrs
25-29 yrs
30-34 yrs.
35-39 yrs.
40-44 yrs.
45-49 yrs.
50-54 yrs.
55-59 yrs.
60-64 yrs.
65-69 yrs.
70-74 yrs.
75-79 yrs.
80+ yrs.
AGE
PERCENT
Males(%)
Females(%)
Italy, 2050
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92. Beehive-shaped Pyramid
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93. Beehive-shaped Pyramid
Title: Singapore, 2000
Shape: Rocket-shaped / Narrow Base
– Low Birth Rates, Slow pop growth
Proportion: Large proportion of working
population, 15-59 yr old - large
group of economically active pop
Sex Ratio: Balanced pyramid
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94. DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED
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Japan showing its
high number of
dependants to
working age
population
•lots of elderly
(nearly black color)
• Working age
population (purple
color)
•few kids (dark
purple color)
Result is high
Dependency Ratio
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95. Hong Kong
2000
Taiwan
2000
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96. Rectangular-shaped Pyramid
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97. Rectangular Pyramid
Title: Netherlands, 2000
Shape: Rectangular-shaped - Zero Pop Growth
Narrow Base - Low Birth Rates
- Life-expectancy is high e.g. 80+
- Low death rates
Proportion: Bars of equal length - Balance
Proportion
Sex Ratio: Balance pyramid - Balance Sex
Ratio
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98. PAKISTAN 2014
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99. PAKISTAN 2010
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100. Test Yourself
1. What does the vertical axis on the population pyramid
represent?
2. What type of population pyramid is indicative of a lesser
developed country?
3. What does a narrow base to the population pyramid
indicate?
4. What type of population pyramid has a triangular shape?
5. What type of population pyramid is wider at the
reproductive age than at the pre-reproductive ages.
6. _?_ are graphs that show the age structure of a
population by age & gender.
7. What type of population pyramid is depicted below?
What characteristic of this population pyramid indicate
its high death rate?3/16/2017 100DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED
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