Opening lecture at the ECPPM 2014, eWork and eBusiness in Architecture, Engineering and Construction, Vienna, Austria, 17 - 19 September 2014.

1. ECPPM1994+20:
TwoDecadesofthe
ECPPMandtheShifting
SocietalChallenges
Prof.dr. Žiga Turk
University of Ljubljana, Slovenia

2. In1994…Computers were1000x
weakerthantoday‘s smartphones
4M RAM
120M HDD
Microsoft
Office 4.0
Word for
Windows 6.0

3. Internetwasthatnewthingon
magazine covers
July 1994

4. AutoCADwasversion12

5. BIMwascalled building product
modeling …BPM

6. Prof.Schererorganized thefirstECPPM
conference…

7. …inDresden,formerlyEastGermany
Hungry for new technology,
We were standing at the brink
of something new

8. In1994:Theworldwasoptimistic
 Cold war was over
 Europe was getting re-united
 Information technology was ahead of Moore's law
 Globalization was accelerating thanks to fallen political
borders, speed of the internet, the peace dividend …
 plenty of stuff to build, new business space everywhere
 new housing, infrastructures, facilities in the world that was
catching up
Engineers couldbeoptimistic

9. Weasscientists wereoptimistic
Need to agree on data structures that
describe building products and building
processes
Standardize that …

10. Well…itwasnotsoeasy.

11. Neither waseasyfortheWorld
 Major Economic Crisis (in the West mostly)
oFollowed by a grand stagnation
oNot greedy banksters but 5 major structural reasons
behind it
 What are the major challenges
o5 global transformations
 How can construction industry respond
othere is a role for construction in general
 How can "product and process modellers" respond
othere is a role for our community
oto react and to act

12. Theworldischanging
A.automation and abundance
B.BRICs and globalization
C.climate change and energy
D.demography
E. e-everything

13. Abundance and
Automation

14. Automation

15. Abundance

16. Heatswater. GotDesign
Award
Fewareinabusinessofsellingfunction.
Theysellmeaning!

17. BRICS and
Globalisation

18. ABCDE:GDPinyear1

19. ABCDE:GDPin1500–(BR)IC

20. ABCDE:GDP1990

21. ABCDE:Population Talent in2050

22. Climate Change

23. ABCDE:Climate change andenergy

24. Demography

25. Declining shareofEUpopulation
talent!

26. Changing Demographic Structure

27. Electronic
Communication,
ICT

28. ABCDE:eCommunication

29. ABCDEarehistoric …
A. end of industrial,
information age, dawn
of creative economy
B. end of the dominance
of the West
C. end of below ground
energy and fossil fuels
D. end of a population
growth, youth
dominated society
E. end of paper based
society, dawn of digital
society

30. ABCDEhaveanimpact
on construction
on construction informatics
on product and process modelling

31. Abundance and
Construction
construction is about
function, global added
value is in meaning
1:10:100:1000 rule
o1 cost of structural system
o10 cost of facility
o100 cost of facility use
o1000 cost of business in a
building

32. Constructionand
BRICS,
Globalization
the real need is
there
the growth is
there
manual work will
remain local
information work
is global

33. tourism
fossil
energy
impact of the change of climate
impactofthechangeinregulation,
market,govt.intervention
double winners
double losers
automotive
building
materials,
paper,
metal
food
chemical
industry
textiles
transportation
finance
mechanical and
electrical
engineering
construction and
associated sectors
agriculture
and
forestry
renewable
energy
+
+
-
-
Winning and loosing
sectors of climate change
Construction isDoubleWinnerof
Climate Change
33

34. Vattenfall/McKinsey
Construction candeliverlowhanging
fruit
34

35. Demography andConstruction
Florida: “Human Talent is the
Ultimate Economic Resource”
oquantity, quality, empowerment
of talent
Quantity, numbers,
immigration
Construction can provide
ohousing,
owork environment,
ocivil infrastructure
Provide an attractive place for
talent

36. master builders
e-technologies: Changing construction
1500AD
paper and print revolution
2000AD
digital communication revolution
local teamwork global teamwork
limited documentation,
oral communication
processing in head
words
paper based documentation,
paper based communication
processing head/paper
lines
digitised communication
digitised documentation
processing head/computer
building information
models
Drawings,
Paper
Digital model,
Digital media

37. Role of product
and process
modelling
community

38. PPMCommunity Response
 Automation and Abundance
o a problem we are creating, destroying low added-value jobs
o move beyond function, form-function-behavior is a model for the world
of scarcity
 BRICS and Globalization
o PPM is an enabler, PPM professionals benefit of it
o Epicenter of BIM deployment is moving east
 Climate Change
o double winner, model sustainability
o take part in the “green building”
 Demography
o model the needs of different generations
o Take part in the “silver building”
 E-everything
o does anyone model stuff that is more complex?

39. Whatwemodel?
TheWorld!

40. WhenisProductandProcess
Modelling?
entire life cycle
1:10:100:1000 rule
o0.1 cost of making better
design
o1 cost of structural system
o10 cost of facility
o100 cost of facility use
o1000 cost of business in a
building

41. ECPPM1994,2014,2034
Whatwillbewrongwiththispicture?
 computer
disappears
 everything
else is still
there
 and
structured
information
about it
 but perhaps …
1994 2034

42. …justvirtually in2034
 and even
modelling
the virtual
requires
product
and
process
models
Another optimist of
1994

43. …orinbetween.
S. Meža, BIM based Augmented Reality, PhD Thesis, 2014.

44. InConclusion
 ABCDE are societal trends
 engineers have a role to play
o they are part of the solution as innovators
o engineering problem solving method is useful
 there are similarities between an engineering and political work
o dealing with incomplete information, stochastic events,
o approximate models,
o holistic perspective … civil engineers shape infrastructure of civilizations
 modelling is useful
o as an approach to problem solving
o as an approach in creating digital representations
 few can claim that they model more complex stuff than architects
and engineers
o there will be plenty of work to do …

45. Modelling workevenifwerunoutof
brickandbrickandconcrete

46. Modelling workevenifwerunoutof
brickandbrickandconcrete

47. Thank you!
www.zturk.com

48. Acknowledgements
photos:
Google photo search, Flickr, EU, Rem KoolHaas
…
charts:
Erste Bank, Stanford University, OECD, WEO,
IMF, NASA
more information, author contact at
www.zTurk.com

49. Construction ITscientists gotfirst
Webpages …