Way Forward for Europe

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slides for a short talk at the Growth and Jobs Summit.

NOTE THAT THIS NOT AN OFFICIAL POSITION OF THE REFLECTION GROUP, BUT PRIVATE OPINION OF THE AUTHOR.

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  • teko]I trak na eni strani, umetniki na drugi
  • Way Forward for Europe

    1. 1. Way Forward for Europe Žiga Turk @Growth and Jobs Summit, Brussels, 12.3.2009
    2. 2. How about the future of Europe: Let's ask Google 2
    3. 3. Let's reinvent the continent § oops, sorry, the wrong continent! § lets set up a committee or two! § Reflection Group § Future of Lisbon Strategy 3
    4. 4. 2007 … in the good old times … § EU expansion, Euro a success § Lisbon Treaty on track/signed, institutional matters settled § economic upswing, in part attributed to the Lisbon Strategy § soft power Europe - leading global climate change agenda § Europe to lead the globalization 4
    5. 5. The sky was the limit § Mark Leonhard: quot;we will see the emergence of a New European Century. Not because Europe will run the world as an empire, but because the European way of doing things will have become the worldsquot;. § Jeremy Rifkin: quot;Much of the world is going dark, leaving many human beings without clear direction. The European Dream is a beacon of light in the troubled world.quot; § long term visions: a proposal for a group of wise men to think about the future of Europe § economic, social and environmental strategy: Lisbon strategy 3.0 5
    6. 6. Reflection Group § to identify the key issues and developments which the Union was likely to face and to analyze how these might be addressed. – strengthening and modernizing the European model of economic success and social responsibility, – enhancing the competitiveness of the EU, – the rule of law, – sustainable development as a fundamental objective of the European Union, – global stability, – migration, – energy and climate protection, – and the fight against global insecurity, international crime and terrorism. § particular attention should be given to ways of better reaching out to citizens and addressing their expectations and needs. § headed by former Spanish PM Felipe Gonzales § www.ReflectionGroup.eu 6
    7. 7. Lisbon Strategy 2010-2020 § The European Council (March 2008) stresses that a continued EU-level commitment to – structural reforms and – sustainable development and – social cohesion § will be necessary after 2010 in order to lock in the progress achieved by the renewed Lisbon Strategy for growth and jobs. § The European Council therefore invites – the Commission, – the Council and – the National Lisbon coordinators § to start reflecting on the future of the Lisbon strategy in the post-2010 period. 7
    8. 8. 2009 Crises § institutional crisis – treaty stuck in Ireland § climate crisis – somehow forgotten, quot;temperatures flat since 2001, but warming will returnquot; § financial, then economic crisis, possible spillover to political crisis 8
    9. 9. The triggers and deeper reasons § triggers – many living over their means, – lack of information in the financial market, – regulation that did not compensate for that, – risk aversion and distribution, – market distortions, – poor decisions made in the financial sector § deeper reasons –… 9
    10. 10. 21th century structural shifts / undercurrents § shifting of center of gravity of global economy – after 500 years re-emergence of China as #1 economy § conceptual economy – quot;almost all of the real-value-added increases in our output reflect the embodiment of ideasquot; § peak oil and possible 3rd industrial revolution – 100 years since the 2nd (oil) § other scientific progress – biotech, medicine, genetics, nanotechnology 10
    11. 11. Perfect storm § structural shifts + crisis = § instability, discontinuity, future quot;not like the past but betterquot; any more § destructive questioning the proven patterns of the past (capitalism, markets, democracy, greed …) without offering workable alternatives § looking for silver bullets and utopian regressions: government control, protectionism, redistribution of wealth … 11
    12. 12. Threats and opportunities of the storm threats opportunities § not good for Europe § government interventions are – common market is the acceptable, even bedrock of European integration desirable § not good for business § weaknesses are at all! exposed § not good for doing § there is motive for long term strategies reform 12
    13. 13. Responses § tactical response: addressing the symptoms with stimuli, bailouts, confidence building, cheap oil … sooner or later they would get traction § strategic response: addressing the structural shifts, the weaknesses exposed by crisis – Asia, automation, abundance 13
    14. 14. The crisis of abundance § economy can stand still, § luddites: the end of because we can live work without new stuff for a § communists: Give year or more money to the poor that § fewer and fewer workers will spend it needed to make the stuff § environmentalists: we need Spend money to save the planet § snobs: Sell meaning, brand, content, design … not function 14
    15. 15. Crisis is deep § we will have to do a little bit of everything § conceptual economy – intellectual property rights or another pattern of innovation • quot;Should the law have protected Newton's and Leibniz's claims in the same way that we do those of owners of land?quot; – talent, human resources – innovation, creativity … culture, values 15
    16. 16. Conceptual economy, culture, values are a legacy of Europe … 16
    17. 17. … and Conceptual Economy is Europe's Game § the future is bright 17
    18. 18. In conclusion § the crisis is deep and serious, but this too will pass § there are plenty of challenges, big picture issues, stuff that matters (care for the people, care for the nature) § short term action must not play against long term structural shifts § build on what has been good and what has worked to create enormous prosperity, a long period of growth and peace § an EU reform strategy is welcome - Brussels can push for the right thing not for the popular thing § create mechanisms that turn good ideas into action 18
    19. 19. On a rough sea you must keep an eye on the horizon because the sky is the limit 19

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