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国际林业碳汇市场研究

   碳汇交易部
    修勤绪
   2010.4.29
目录
•   1、碳汇交易的背景
•   2、碳汇项目类型
•   3、国际碳汇项目标准
•   4、案例分析-CCX
•   5、国际碳交易市场趋势
•   6、我国林业碳汇潜能
1、碳汇交易的背景

• 1.1 全球气候变暖

• 1.2 经济学基础
1.1 全球气候变暖
• IPCC第四次报告指出:气候系统变暖是毋
  庸置疑的,大部分已观测到的全球平均温
  度的升高很可能是由于观测到的人为温室
  气体浓度增加所导致。
• 同时指出,与林业相关的减缓活动能够以
  低成本的汇大幅度减少源排放并增加碳清
  除,而且这类减缓活动能够与适应措施和
  可持续发展一并发挥协同作用。
1.2 经济学基础

• 环境产品的外部性问题

• 对高排放企业/国家实施排放总量控制,并
  促使“cap - trade”(总量控制-限额交易
  )

• 允许通过林业碳汇项目进行补偿
2、碳汇项目类型

       京都市场                非京都市场

  造林再造林项目(R&A)         造林再造林项目(R&A)

减少林地退化和采伐产生的温室气体排    减少林地退化和采伐产生的温室气体排
     放项目(REDD)            放项目(REDD)
  REDD+(包括R&A和SFM)   可持续森林经营项目(SFM)/优化的
                        森林经营项目(IFM)
                         农地经营(ALM)

                      长期存在的木质产品(LLWP)
3、国际碳汇标准
 基础标准          可签发碳信用额的标准                  附加标准

                      CDM                Gold Standard
ISO 14064-1           VCS                    CCB
ISO 14064-2    CCX offset program    Social Carbon Standard
ISO 14064-3           CAR
 ISO14065      Plan vivo Standard-
                    Scotland
               Carbon fix Standard
                     VER+
ISO 14064/14065
• ISO 14064 -1:《温室气体-第一部分:组织层次上
  对温室气体排放和清除的量化和报告的规范及指
  南》
• ISO 14064-2:《温室气体-第二部分:在项目层面
  增加碳汇的计量、监测和报告指南》
• ISO 14064-3:2006 《温室气体-第三部分:有关
  温室气体评估报告确认和验证指南》
• ISO 14065:2007 《温室气体–对认可机构或其他
  评定机构的要求》
VCS
• 管理机构:VCS Association
• 成立目的: the most popular standard across the breadth of the
  international voluntary market, offering project developers carbon
  credibility, ease of use and medium-range credit prices.
• 项目类型:Afforestation, Reforestation and Revegetation (ARR),
  Agricultural Land Management (ALM),Improved Forest
  Management (IFM),Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and
  Degradation (REDD)
• 签发产品:VCUs
• 优点:meets a high standard in carbon verification and successfully
  addresses the issues of real and permanent carbon sequestration.
• 缺点:they are pure carbon standards providing robust verification
  only and don‟t directly address a project‟s wider impacts.
CCX offset program
• 管理机构: Chicago Climate Exchange (CCX)
• 成立目的: advance a “currently viable” mitigation action identified
  in IPCC
• 项目类型:A&R and Widely-Spaced Tree Planting Offset
  Project,SMF,LLWP
• 签发产品:CFI(carbon financial instrument)contracts
• 优点:The CCX has been a valuable pioneer in the development of
  emissions abatement and carbon offsetting in North America and
  beyond.
• 缺点: its offset requirements, in the areas of permanence and
  additionality especially, don‟t meet the quality benchmarks
  established by the new generation of standards outlined above.
CAR
• 管理机构: State of California
• 成立目的: has emerged as the quality carbon offset standard in
  North America with premium prices to match.
• 项目类型:Avoided Conversion of Forest Land to Other Uses, IMF,
  Reforestation of reviously-cleared land within the United States
• 签发产品:CRT
• 优点:to account for wider environmental impacts of their activities,
  such as air and water quality, endangered species/natural resource
  protection, and environmental justice.
• 缺点:it relies heavily on US Forest Service regional data and other
  official datasets for such things as the calculation of baselines and
  establishing additionality.
Plan vivo Standard
• 管理机构: Plan Vivo Foundation, formerly BioClimate Research
  and Development, a registered charity based in Scotland.
• 成立目的:The Plan Vivo Standards are designed to verify the
  carbon, social and environmental benefits of rural community land-
  use projects.
• 项目类型: Agroforestry, afforestation and small-scale timber, fruit
  or wood fuel plantations; Restoration and reforestation of degraded
  or damaged ecosystems such as woodlands; Conservation of
  forests and woodlands under threat from deforestation.
• 签发产品: Plan Vivo Certificates
• 优点: Independent verification of carbon, social and environmental
  project benefits is required every five years after validation. buffer
  reserve of credits be established to cover permanence issues.
• 缺点: credits are issued annually based on internal monitoring of
  implementation. The project coordinater only be NGOs and NFPCs
CarbonFix Standard
• 管理机构: is administered by a non-profit association NGO and is
  based in Germany.
• 成立目的: aiming for a „best of both worlds‟ approach. The
  standard accounts for the wider social and environmental impacts of
  carbon projects (unlike VCS) and issues carbon credits (unlike
  CCB).
• 范围: afforestation and reforestation activities, not to avoided
  deforestation (REDD) activity.
• 优点:Upfront project validation and registration costs are generally
  lower than other standards.
• 缺点:but a high registry fee is charged for resulting carbon credits.
VER+ Carbon Standard
• 管理机构:is offered by German project validation firm TÜV SÜD.
• 范围: is available to project developers looking to verify projects to
  best practice levels around UN Joint Implementation (JI) and Clean
  Development Mechanism (CDM) rules. the emerging REDD avoided
  deforestation space won‟t be covered by VER+
• 优点: it suits developers trying to keep voluntary market verification
  efforts in parallel with CDM/JI requirements.
• 缺点:a conflict of interest in one firm providing an industry standard
  and also validating projects to that standard.
Gold Standard
• 管理机构:由WWF发起,目前由瑞士的巴赛尔可持续能源机构(
  BASE)主管
• 成立目的:第一个针对CDM(清洁发展机制)和JI(联合履约机制)
  温室气体减排项目开发的、独立的、具有良好实用性的基准方法。为
  项目开发商提供了一套方法,以确保CDM和JI能够产生有利于可持续
  发展的真实可靠的环境效益。
• 优点:考虑到对环境和社区可持续发展的贡献,操作简单
• 缺点:does not cover the forestry and land-use sector
CCB
• 管理机构:adminstered by the Climate, Community & Biodiversity
  Alliance (CCBA),a global partnership of companies and non-
  governmental organisations.
• 成立目的:aimed at promoting the development of forest protection,
  restoration and agro-forestry projects through high quality multiple-
  benefit land-based carbon projects.
• 范围: forest protection, restoration and agro-forestry projects
• 优点:While CCBS places heavy emphasis on the social and
  environmental benefits and impacts of a project, a pragmatic
  approach is taken.
• 缺点:The CCB Standard is not a prescriptive, rules-based
  standard, rather one based on general design concepts with projects
  judged against these criteria on their individual merits.
SOCIALCARBON Standard
• 开发机构:developed by the Ecologica Institute, a Brazilian NGO.
• 成立目的: is not a carbon credit-issuing standard but an add-on
  standard aimed at establishing the social and non-climatic
  environmental impacts and benefits of a carbon project.
• 范围:
• 优点:While very qualitative, areas identified for improvements are
  expected to deliver tangible results for formal certification under the
  standard.
• 缺点:it does not address additionality and baseline methodological
  issues required for generating verified emissions reductions.it is
  mainly being used so far by small local enterprises running fuel-
  switching projects; from wood or fossil fuels to renewable biomass
  energy.
Source: point carbon
4、案例分析-CCX
•   项目注册流程




                          Source: CCX
•   项目注册数量




             Source: CCX
•   交易价格




           Source: CCX
5、国际碳交易市场趋势
• 5.1 市场价格

• 5.2 交易趋势
5.1 市场价格




           Source: Point Carbon
Source: Point Carbon
5.2 交易趋势
             2007-2008年国际碳交易量和成交额
                            2007               2008
                      交易量        成交额     交易量        成交额
                     (MtCO2e)    (MUS$) (MtCO2e)    (MUS$)
                      基于项目的交易
    CDM一级市场             552        7433    389        6519
        JI               41        499      20        294
     自愿碳市场               43        263      54        397
       合计               636        8195    463        7210
                      CDM二级市场
       合计               240        5451   1072       26277
                         限额市场
 欧盟交易平台(EU ETS)        2060       49065   3093       91910
 新南威尔士(New South
                         25        224      31        183
      Wales)
 芝加哥气候交易所(CCX)           23         72      69        309
区域温室气体减排行动(RGGI)                            65        246
 分配数量单位(AAUs)                               18        211
       合计              2108       49361   3258       92648

               总计                          2984            63007     4793   126135
来源:The world bank,2009,State and trends of the Carbon M arket 2009
6、我国林业碳汇潜能
• 2009年,联合国气候变化峰会上,胡锦涛
  主席提出“要大力增加森林碳汇,到2020
  年我国森林面积比2005年增加4000万公顷
  ,森林蓄积量增加13亿立方米”
• 按“森林每生长1立方米,平均能吸收
  1.83TCO2,释放1.62TO2”计算,到2020
  年能吸收约24亿TCO2
• 按照发改委定的CER最低价8€/T计算,共
  计192亿€
谢谢大家!
 修勤绪(Qinxu Xiu)
 中国林业产权交易所碳汇交易部
 电 邮(EMAIL): qxxiu@cfexc.com
 手 机(Mobile): +86 13683604015
 座 机(TEL): +86 10 62030082
 传 真(FAX): +86 10 62030011
 通信地址:北京市西城区德外大街甲36号
 中国林业产权交易所,邮政编码:100011

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修勤绪 国际林业碳汇市场研究

  • 1. 国际林业碳汇市场研究 碳汇交易部 修勤绪 2010.4.29
  • 2. 目录 • 1、碳汇交易的背景 • 2、碳汇项目类型 • 3、国际碳汇项目标准 • 4、案例分析-CCX • 5、国际碳交易市场趋势 • 6、我国林业碳汇潜能
  • 4. 1.1 全球气候变暖 • IPCC第四次报告指出:气候系统变暖是毋 庸置疑的,大部分已观测到的全球平均温 度的升高很可能是由于观测到的人为温室 气体浓度增加所导致。 • 同时指出,与林业相关的减缓活动能够以 低成本的汇大幅度减少源排放并增加碳清 除,而且这类减缓活动能够与适应措施和 可持续发展一并发挥协同作用。
  • 5. 1.2 经济学基础 • 环境产品的外部性问题 • 对高排放企业/国家实施排放总量控制,并 促使“cap - trade”(总量控制-限额交易 ) • 允许通过林业碳汇项目进行补偿
  • 6. 2、碳汇项目类型 京都市场 非京都市场 造林再造林项目(R&A) 造林再造林项目(R&A) 减少林地退化和采伐产生的温室气体排 减少林地退化和采伐产生的温室气体排 放项目(REDD) 放项目(REDD) REDD+(包括R&A和SFM) 可持续森林经营项目(SFM)/优化的 森林经营项目(IFM) 农地经营(ALM) 长期存在的木质产品(LLWP)
  • 7. 3、国际碳汇标准 基础标准 可签发碳信用额的标准 附加标准 CDM Gold Standard ISO 14064-1 VCS CCB ISO 14064-2 CCX offset program Social Carbon Standard ISO 14064-3 CAR ISO14065 Plan vivo Standard- Scotland Carbon fix Standard VER+
  • 8. ISO 14064/14065 • ISO 14064 -1:《温室气体-第一部分:组织层次上 对温室气体排放和清除的量化和报告的规范及指 南》 • ISO 14064-2:《温室气体-第二部分:在项目层面 增加碳汇的计量、监测和报告指南》 • ISO 14064-3:2006 《温室气体-第三部分:有关 温室气体评估报告确认和验证指南》 • ISO 14065:2007 《温室气体–对认可机构或其他 评定机构的要求》
  • 9. VCS • 管理机构:VCS Association • 成立目的: the most popular standard across the breadth of the international voluntary market, offering project developers carbon credibility, ease of use and medium-range credit prices. • 项目类型:Afforestation, Reforestation and Revegetation (ARR), Agricultural Land Management (ALM),Improved Forest Management (IFM),Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD) • 签发产品:VCUs • 优点:meets a high standard in carbon verification and successfully addresses the issues of real and permanent carbon sequestration. • 缺点:they are pure carbon standards providing robust verification only and don‟t directly address a project‟s wider impacts.
  • 10. CCX offset program • 管理机构: Chicago Climate Exchange (CCX) • 成立目的: advance a “currently viable” mitigation action identified in IPCC • 项目类型:A&R and Widely-Spaced Tree Planting Offset Project,SMF,LLWP • 签发产品:CFI(carbon financial instrument)contracts • 优点:The CCX has been a valuable pioneer in the development of emissions abatement and carbon offsetting in North America and beyond. • 缺点: its offset requirements, in the areas of permanence and additionality especially, don‟t meet the quality benchmarks established by the new generation of standards outlined above.
  • 11. CAR • 管理机构: State of California • 成立目的: has emerged as the quality carbon offset standard in North America with premium prices to match. • 项目类型:Avoided Conversion of Forest Land to Other Uses, IMF, Reforestation of reviously-cleared land within the United States • 签发产品:CRT • 优点:to account for wider environmental impacts of their activities, such as air and water quality, endangered species/natural resource protection, and environmental justice. • 缺点:it relies heavily on US Forest Service regional data and other official datasets for such things as the calculation of baselines and establishing additionality.
  • 12. Plan vivo Standard • 管理机构: Plan Vivo Foundation, formerly BioClimate Research and Development, a registered charity based in Scotland. • 成立目的:The Plan Vivo Standards are designed to verify the carbon, social and environmental benefits of rural community land- use projects. • 项目类型: Agroforestry, afforestation and small-scale timber, fruit or wood fuel plantations; Restoration and reforestation of degraded or damaged ecosystems such as woodlands; Conservation of forests and woodlands under threat from deforestation. • 签发产品: Plan Vivo Certificates • 优点: Independent verification of carbon, social and environmental project benefits is required every five years after validation. buffer reserve of credits be established to cover permanence issues. • 缺点: credits are issued annually based on internal monitoring of implementation. The project coordinater only be NGOs and NFPCs
  • 13. CarbonFix Standard • 管理机构: is administered by a non-profit association NGO and is based in Germany. • 成立目的: aiming for a „best of both worlds‟ approach. The standard accounts for the wider social and environmental impacts of carbon projects (unlike VCS) and issues carbon credits (unlike CCB). • 范围: afforestation and reforestation activities, not to avoided deforestation (REDD) activity. • 优点:Upfront project validation and registration costs are generally lower than other standards. • 缺点:but a high registry fee is charged for resulting carbon credits.
  • 14. VER+ Carbon Standard • 管理机构:is offered by German project validation firm TÜV SÜD. • 范围: is available to project developers looking to verify projects to best practice levels around UN Joint Implementation (JI) and Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) rules. the emerging REDD avoided deforestation space won‟t be covered by VER+ • 优点: it suits developers trying to keep voluntary market verification efforts in parallel with CDM/JI requirements. • 缺点:a conflict of interest in one firm providing an industry standard and also validating projects to that standard.
  • 15. Gold Standard • 管理机构:由WWF发起,目前由瑞士的巴赛尔可持续能源机构( BASE)主管 • 成立目的:第一个针对CDM(清洁发展机制)和JI(联合履约机制) 温室气体减排项目开发的、独立的、具有良好实用性的基准方法。为 项目开发商提供了一套方法,以确保CDM和JI能够产生有利于可持续 发展的真实可靠的环境效益。 • 优点:考虑到对环境和社区可持续发展的贡献,操作简单 • 缺点:does not cover the forestry and land-use sector
  • 16. CCB • 管理机构:adminstered by the Climate, Community & Biodiversity Alliance (CCBA),a global partnership of companies and non- governmental organisations. • 成立目的:aimed at promoting the development of forest protection, restoration and agro-forestry projects through high quality multiple- benefit land-based carbon projects. • 范围: forest protection, restoration and agro-forestry projects • 优点:While CCBS places heavy emphasis on the social and environmental benefits and impacts of a project, a pragmatic approach is taken. • 缺点:The CCB Standard is not a prescriptive, rules-based standard, rather one based on general design concepts with projects judged against these criteria on their individual merits.
  • 17. SOCIALCARBON Standard • 开发机构:developed by the Ecologica Institute, a Brazilian NGO. • 成立目的: is not a carbon credit-issuing standard but an add-on standard aimed at establishing the social and non-climatic environmental impacts and benefits of a carbon project. • 范围: • 优点:While very qualitative, areas identified for improvements are expected to deliver tangible results for formal certification under the standard. • 缺点:it does not address additionality and baseline methodological issues required for generating verified emissions reductions.it is mainly being used so far by small local enterprises running fuel- switching projects; from wood or fossil fuels to renewable biomass energy.
  • 19. 4、案例分析-CCX • 项目注册流程 Source: CCX
  • 20. 项目注册数量 Source: CCX
  • 21. 交易价格 Source: CCX
  • 23. 5.1 市场价格 Source: Point Carbon
  • 25. 5.2 交易趋势 2007-2008年国际碳交易量和成交额 2007 2008 交易量 成交额 交易量 成交额 (MtCO2e) (MUS$) (MtCO2e) (MUS$) 基于项目的交易 CDM一级市场 552 7433 389 6519 JI 41 499 20 294 自愿碳市场 43 263 54 397 合计 636 8195 463 7210 CDM二级市场 合计 240 5451 1072 26277 限额市场 欧盟交易平台(EU ETS) 2060 49065 3093 91910 新南威尔士(New South 25 224 31 183 Wales) 芝加哥气候交易所(CCX) 23 72 69 309 区域温室气体减排行动(RGGI) 65 246 分配数量单位(AAUs) 18 211 合计 2108 49361 3258 92648 总计 2984 63007 4793 126135 来源:The world bank,2009,State and trends of the Carbon M arket 2009
  • 26. 6、我国林业碳汇潜能 • 2009年,联合国气候变化峰会上,胡锦涛 主席提出“要大力增加森林碳汇,到2020 年我国森林面积比2005年增加4000万公顷 ,森林蓄积量增加13亿立方米” • 按“森林每生长1立方米,平均能吸收 1.83TCO2,释放1.62TO2”计算,到2020 年能吸收约24亿TCO2 • 按照发改委定的CER最低价8€/T计算,共 计192亿€
  • 27. 谢谢大家! 修勤绪(Qinxu Xiu) 中国林业产权交易所碳汇交易部 电 邮(EMAIL): qxxiu@cfexc.com 手 机(Mobile): +86 13683604015 座 机(TEL): +86 10 62030082 传 真(FAX): +86 10 62030011 通信地址:北京市西城区德外大街甲36号 中国林业产权交易所,邮政编码:100011