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Six sigma yellow belt
Tyzenia Renee Williams, Tonya wright, Terrence willburn,
Melissa Hoolulu, John banzali, ben
Ops 571
Professor soltys
March 19, 2018
1
Customers and Their Priorities
CUSTOMERS
Businesspeople
Travelers
Younger generation
PRIORITIES
Affordability
Incentives
Consideration
Many people choose Tesla for various reasons. Business people
require the most luxury form of transportation and want to be
seen getting out of a beautiful car as they pull up to work or
family excursions. Each buyer has a different reason for
purchasing the Tesla and each reason has a corresponding
priority. Business people may prefer the convenience option
that accompanies the car. Tesla’s are full of provisions for
satisfying customer needs, like its electrical feature and
environmental safeties. The Tesla are made to order by their
customers with the options that they choose, certain items
differ, but the convenience of service is available. Offering Wi-
Fi is a reasonable perk for keeping customers connected with
technology. All customers have similar opportunities and
customers have several options. Tesla is certainly a competitor
that strives to provide the appropriate, and necessary, amenities
for their loyal customers. Customers prefer options, ease of
travel, and particular amenities to get the most out of this
beautiful car. In addition, employee and customer incentive
programs are often a consideration for loyal customers.
Incentives allow the customer affordability and economical
provisions along with particular in Tesla perks. Other
considerations, like safety and the green initiative exhibit the
pensiveness of the company encourages customers to order their
vehicles months ahead of time when they trade it in trade it
back to the Tesla company.
2
Business objectives
To sell as many high quality units as possible
Maintain high customer satisfaction
Maintain a credible reputation
Six Sigma is a business improvement program that was designed
originally for manufacturing companies However, its efficiency
in furthering business objectives has made its way to a wide
variety of project management, sales and marketing, and other
organizations in need of an increase in quality and efficiency by
identifying defects in the system and correcting it (Madhani,
2017). High end car brands such as Tesla have used Six Sigma
to ensure quality in its products. Like any business, the
objective is to sell as many high quality units as possible while
maintaining high customer satisfaction, hence, a very credible
reputation in the automotive industry.
Tesla manufacturers use this program to produce high quality
cars that meet the high expectations of its clients. Ensuring that
what they purchase with the very expensive car is worth every
cent, Six Sigma professionals check every detail in the process
of creating a masterpiece of a car.
3
Customer needs
Timely production
Detail precision with specifications
Inventory management
From the time a model is created, Six Sigma can check out if
specifications are meticulously met. This is to prevent recalls
once sales are made. Waste is also prevented so that process
flow is uninterrupted and stagnation is avoided. Examples of
wastes that Six Sigma checks are as follows: “Defects,
Overproduction, Waiting, Non-Utilized Talent, Transportation,
Inventory, Motion, and Extra-Processing” (O’Rourke, 2018,
para.1). With this list, Tesla vehicles are checked in both the
process as well as the product, and all forms of waste are
identified and eliminated so that the whole process of Tesla car
manufacturing becomes more efficient, cost-effective, and
achieves customer satisfaction.
For example, prolonged waiting time for supplies or delivery
time will cost much money, as customers may change their
minds due to loss of patience for the long wait in service or the
delivery of their purchased car. As a result, they may cancel
their order, thus, losing profit for the company. The waiting and
delay may be caused by very slow motion of workers. Hence,
Six Sigma can recommend the appropriate employee training or
impose policies on effective time management.
Another example is the quality of inventory management kept
by the company. If more inventory is kept than what is required,
it may not only take up valuable space in the storage area but
can keep resources ineffectively stuck disabling it from
becoming liquid. On the other hand, lack of inventory can also
result in delays, because supplies need to be ordered prolonging
the manufacturing process. Six Sigma standards are very helpful
in maintaining high quality in businesses as it achieves
organizational goals and meet customer expectations.
4
Productivity of Operation / Quality of Service
Productivity of Operations
Errors in Production of Tesla Vehicles
Quality of Products
Tesla Vehicle Quality
Customer Satisfaction
Overall Customer Satisfcation
No other vehicle manufacturer is hotter than Tesla. From it’s
immensely popular vehicles such as Tesla’s Model S sedans, to
there Model x SUV’s they are definitely becoming one of the
more popular car manufacturers not only in the United States
but in the world. It seems that Tesla has definitely have things
figured out. Unfortunately, like many organizations there are
and will always be areas that can be improved.
One area that the organization has not mastered are the issues
that they have when it comes to their production line. One of
the more known issues that the organization has is that many of
their vehicles (mostly electric), end up needing immediate
repairs. “The luxury cars regularly require fixes before they ca
leave the factory, according to the workers. Quality checks have
routinely revealed defects in more than 90 percent of Model S
and Model X vehicles inspected after assembly” (Six Sigma,
2017 ). This is where Six Sigma can definitely make a huge
difference as it will put more emphasis in eliminating waste and
correcting the organizations processes in order to decrease
errors in their production. Six Sigma can also help in making
sure that the quality of Tesla vehicles are optimized creating a
chain of events that make the buyers much happier customers.
Customer satisfaction is everything in the motor vehicle
business. Tesla with its innovations and ground breaking
vehicles have got the populations attention making them one of
the more popular and sought after vehicles in the land.
However, if these common issues in vehicle production continue
to rise, the less reliable they will become. With other larger
motor vehicle organizations cleaning up and focusing more on
quality, The six sigma processes can help clean up waste,
issues, and continue to boost customer satisfaction by making
the very best and innovative motor vehicles in the land.
5
Problems looming for Tesla
Resolving the concerns of safety
Production with the new batterires shortage has to be addressed
This Photo by Unknown Author is licensed under CC BY-NC-
SA
Tesla has position itself as one of the top luxury vehicles in the
market. There still remains to be unmet needs of the targeted
audience. Tesla has to address the recall issues that stated that
auto pilot is unsafe and parking brake problems. Bridging the
gap to high performance luxury car, yet the reliability issue
aren’t match the performance. As orders continue to sore for the
new affordable models of the Tesla the burning question still
exist that the makers can’t keep up with orders and safety
concerns have to be addressed at a more timely manner. As the
new model start to hit the market, a new problem has arouse of
will Tesla be able to produce the battery that is capable of
giving the car the increased drive time.
6
Critical to quality characteristics
The customer satisfaction for Tesla is important to the
sustainability of the high quality cars and production. The
customers satisfaction revolves around three main quality
characteristics of time, inventory, and customization. These
three elements are essential performance and satisfaction
characteristics. The shorter the time is to receiving the car the
higher the satisfier. The more inventory the company has in
stock, the more likely they are to meet the customers needs for
preference. Further, the ability for the customization are also
high satisfiers.
“CTQs are the key measurable characteristics of a product or
process whose performance standards or specification limits
must be met in order to satisfy the customer. These outputs
represent the product or service characteristics defined by the
customer (internal or external). They may include the upper and
lower specification limits or any other factors related to the
product or service. Typically, a CTQ must be interpreted from a
qualitative customer statement to an actionable, quantitative
business specification. Establishing CTQs is vital for a company
to meet customer needs and keep up with the competition”
(Stroud, n.d).
7
Time
Inventory
Detail precision for customization
Manufacturing metrics that Matter in the Auto industry
Business executives
apply metrics
in the right context
and in innovative
ways to solve production
Flow problems, and meet
their customer demands.
Source : Tesla
In the manufacturing industry, manufacturing executives use
available manufacturing metrics to figure out what business
issues need to be addressed. Manufacturing executives use
financial and non-financial measures, (KPIs) to help make
decisions to pinpoint the strengths and weaknesses of their
business and show whether they are in line with their strategic
objectives (Hennel, 2014). The MESA organization
(Manufacturing Enterprise
Solution
s Association) sponsor research each year to identify the most
important manufacturing metrics to improve the production flow
and to align the metrics with core processes and its critical-to-
quality (CTQ) characteristics. According to the Hennel, (2014),
“ the results of the research identified the following
manufacturing metrics that are vital to the automobile industry
and other manufacturing companies:
Customer Experience & Responsiveness Manufacturing Metrics
Quality Manufacturing Metrics which include
Efficiency Manufacturing Metrics
Inventory Metrics
5. Maintenance Manufacturing Metrics
6. Flexibility & Innovation
7. Costs & Profitability Manufacturing Metrics
Customer Fill Rate/On-Time delivery/Perfect Order
Percentage – The percentage of times that customers receive the
entirety of their ordered manufactured goods, to the correct
specifications, and delivered at the expected time”.
8
Tesla model 3 production problems
Inexperience
Workers
2. Manual
Assembly
of the
Lithium
batteries
Source : Tesla
The Tesla Model 3 was the most anticipated car in the history
of the auto industry after it was revealed in March 2016. The
Model 3 launched in July 2017, but the company did not meet
the production quota. The Tesla's Gigafactory in Nevada has
had issues with the battery supply chain. The subcontractor did
not meet their part of the manufacturing contract causing Tesla
to have to redo many of the mechanical and electrical elements
of the battery production quota. Tesla had a large number of
pre-orders, and did not anticipate having battery challenges.
Tesla needs battery packs to build 500,000 Model 3s, but the
company can honestly produce 20,000 units. According to
(DeBord, 2017) , the Tesla employees states there will be more
delays because of inexperienced workers, and the required
manual assembly of the batteries.
9
Metrics used to measure production problems
Customer Experience &
Responsiveness
Manufacturing
2. Quality Manufacturing
Metrics
3. Inventory Metrics
4. Customer Fill Rate/ On
Time Delivery
According to the, (Hennel, 2014), “ the results of the research
identified the following manufacturing metrics that are vital to
the automobile industry and other manufacturing companies:
Customer Experience & Responsiveness Manufacturing Metrics
On-Time Delivery
Manufacturing Cycle Time
The Time to Make Changeovers
Quality Manufacturing Metrics
Yield - The percentage of products that are manufactured
correctly and to specifications the first.
Customer Rejects/Return Material Authorizations/Returns
Supplier’s Quality Incoming – The percentage of good quality
materials coming into the manufacturing process from a given
supplier.
Inventory Metrics
WIP Inventory/Turns – Measures the efficient use of inventory
materials that are used to produce goods.
4. Customer Fill Rate/On-Time delivery/Perfect Order
Percentage – The percentage of times that customers receive the
entirety of their ordered manufactured goods, to the
correct specifications, and delivered at the expected time”.
10
Tesla bottleneck in their battery production
A shortage of graphite,
The raw material needed
to make the lithium
Batteries.
Source: Ron Struthers
Battery metals are in short supply as companies race to build
EVs and energy storage system, says Ron Struthers of Struthers
Resource Stock Report. According to Struthers 92017), “the
Tesla Gigafactory expansion needs 45,000 tons per year of
additional mined graphite to meet the customer per ordered
cars. To produce battery grade graphite (anode material) over
50% of the mined graphite is lost in the process. Two graphite
companies in Canada have received environmental permits, but
even if financing and construction was started today, it would
still take two to three years to see production.
11
Internal process ctq
Detail measurements
Audio
Speed
Design
The internal process CTQ’s are related to design and
manufacturing a high quality vehicle. The detailed
measurements are quantifiable to creating a pristine car. The
quality of the audio, the speed at which the vehicle accelerates
and the overall design are internal measurements of CTQs.
Defects are measured and tracked to the process. The internal
CTQs are a measurement that is quantifiable and aids in review
of any delays or deficiencies that may impact internal quality
and also customer satisfaction. If a door does not have a soft
closure, the detail measurements are reviewed for quality. The
same would be true for audio, speed, and design. The CTQs are
important to internal quality and important to customer quality.
12
References
DeBord, M. (2017). Why Tesla's Model 3 production problems
are troubling. Retrieved from
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/25/tesla-employees-say-
gigafactory-problems-worse-than-known.html
Hennel, P. (2014). Manufacturing metrics that matter most: A
comprehensive checklist. Retrieved from
http://cerasis.com/2014/07/16/manufacturing-metrics/
Madhani, P.M. (2017). Six sigma deployment in sales and
marketing: Enhancing competitive advantages. The IUP Journal
of Business Strategy, 14 (2): 40-63.
O’Rourke, T. (2018). 8 Wastes, Retrieved from:
https://goleansixsigma.com/8-wastes-muda/
Reuters (2017). Tesla assembly lines are getting bogged down
with mistakes. Retrieved from nypost.com/2017/11/29/tesla-
assembly-lines-are-getting-bogged-down-with-mistakes/
Stroud, D. (n.d). Defining ctq outputs: a key step in the design
process. Retrieved from
https://www.isixsigma.com/methodology/voc-customer-
focus/defining-ctq-outputs-key-step-design-process/
Struthers, R. (2017). Battery production more than a Tesla
nightmare . Retrieved from
https://www.streetwisereports.com/article/2017/11/28/battery-
production-more-than-a-tesla-nightmare.html
6sigma.us. (2017). Six Sigma Case Study: Ford Motors.
Retrieved from. www.6sigma.us/uncategorized/six-sigma-case-
study-ford-motors/
.MsftOfcThm_Accent1_Fill {
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Sheet1Quantitative Forecasting: Ribs Sales
DataABCDEFYearSales (000)3-Year Moving Mean Absolute5-
Year MovingMean AbsoluteExponential SmoothingMean
Absolute AverageDeviationAverageDeviationForecast (Alpha =
0.1)Deviation0.1198052.04052.040198159.4217.346666666752.
04-7.38198255.6637.153333333352.778-
2.882198353.8655.70666666671.846666666753.0662-
0.7938198464.5956.3133333333-8.276666666753.14558-
11.44442198575.2858.0366666667-17.243333333357.114-
18.16654.290022-
20.989978198661.8964.57666666672.686666666761.762-
0.12856.3890198-5.5009802198773.7467.2533333333-
6.486666666762.256-11.48456.93911782-
16.80088218198881.1970.3033333333-10.886666666765.872-
15.31858.619206038-22.570793962198997.5272.2733333333-
25.246666666771.338-26.18260.8762854342-
36.6437145658199086.584.15-2.3577.924-8.57664.5406568908-
21.9593431092199183.1888.40333333335.223333333380.168-
3.01266.7365912017-
16.4434087983199287.0589.06666666672.016666666784.426-
2.62468.3809320815-
18.6690679185199384.7985.57666666670.786666666787.0882.
29870.2478388734-
14.5421611266199473.4985.006666666711.516666666787.8081
4.31871.702054986-
1.787945014199576.2381.77666666675.546666666783.0026.77
271.8808494874-4.3491505126199696.5478.17-18.3780.948-
15.59272.3157645387-
24.2242354613199795.0882.0866666667-12.993333333383.62-
11.4674.7381880848-
20.3418119152199887.0589.28333333332.233333333385.226-
1.82476.7723692763-10.2776307237199996.0292.89-
3.1385.678-10.34277.8001323487-
18.2198676513200098.992.7166666667-6.183333333390.184-
8.71679.6221191138-
19.2778808862200183.2393.9910.7694.71811.48881.549907202
5-1.6800927975200292.716666666792.05681.7179164822-
68.551431.188-98.548-296.7791648221Mean Absolute
Deviation-3.115909090965.054-4.4794545455-13.4899620374
Sheet2
Sheet3
Running head: FORECASTING QUANTITY USING EXCEL
1
FORECASTING QUANTITY USING EXCEL
4
Forecasting Quantity Using Excel
Student’s Name
Institution
Forecasting Quantity Using Excel
Introduction
In the ever dynamic business environment the ability to
accurately forecast sales is of absolute importance. In the
absence of accurate forecasts organizations waste resources by
having overstocking or under stocking. Organizations utilize
different techniques for guaging to precisely foresee client
request. Anticipating can either be qualitative or quantitative.
Quantitative guaging uses recorded information in anticipating
customer request (Nahmias & Olsen, 2015). This paper focuses
on qualitative approaches, particularly, moving averages and
exponential smoothing methods of forecasting using excel
spreadsheet.
Quantitative Forecasting
Moving averages
These are the most straightforward strategy for quantitative
determining. It is for the most part a smoothing model that
outcomes in more precise estimates. The primary thought
behind moving normal is to utilize information from y periods
to gauge future request. Longer moving midpoints dependably
result in smooth informational collections (Nahmias & Cheng,
2009). Mathematically;
Moving average= ∑n Dt /n
t=1
Where Dt is the data in period t and n is the number of periods
in moving averages.
Moving Average using Excel Spreadsheet
In the demand data (show in the excel sheet), the restaurant
manager needs to gauge interest for ribs for one year from now.
In the illustration, the manager has the genuine request
information for as far back as 22 years. He chooses to utilize a
3-year and a 5-year moving average to decide or estimate the
next year's request. The scientific recipe for three year and five
year moving midpoints are as per the following;
3 Year Moving Average = (Dt + Dt -1 + Dt-2)
3
5 Year Moving Average = (Dt +Dt-1 +Dt-2 +Dt-3+ Dt-5)
5
Where D represents demand and t is time.
The moving averages forecasts are developed manually using
the following formulae in the excel spreadsheet
A
B
C
D
3
Year
Sales (000)
3-year moving average
5-year moving average
6
1980
52.04
7
1981
59.42
8
1982
55.66
9
1983
53.86
=(B8+B7+B6)/3
10
1984
64.59
=(B9+B8+B7)/3
11
1985
75.28
=(B10+B9+B8)/3
=(B10+B9+B8+B7+B6)/5
12
1986
61.89
=(B11+B10+B9)/3
=(B11+B10+B9+B8+B7)/5
13
1987
73.74
=(B12+B11+B10)/3
=(B12+B11+B10+B9+B8)/5
14
1988
81.19
=(B13+B12+B11)/3
=(B13+B12+B11+B10+B9)/5
15
1989
97.52
=(B14+B13+B12)/3
=(B14+B13+B12+B11+B10)/5
The actual forecasts for the 22 years are contained in the excel
sheet. Based on the moving average analysis, the three year
moving average sales forecast is 92,716 United States dollars
while the 5 year moving average sales forecast is 92,056 United
States dollars.
Exponential Smoothing
This is one of the most commonly used methods of quantitative
forecasting because of its cost effectiveness as well as short
term precision. Exponential smoothing is slightly complex
compared to the traditional moving average method of
forecasting. Exponential smoothing combines previous forecasts
with weighted error measurements, which is the difference
between the previous forecast and actual observation during
prior forecast. Also, it requires users to select value for alpha,
which must be between 0 and 1.0 (Hyndman et al., 2008).
Mathematically,
Exponential Smoothing = Ft+1 = Ft +α* et
Where t = time
Ft = Forecast at time t
α = the smoothing constant, which is a value between 0 and 1.0
et = Dt-Ft
Where Dt =Real perception of time t
Hence, the stated below is the newly written equation;
Ft+1 = Ft +α* (Dt-Ft)
Exponential Smoothing Using Excel Sheet
In the illustration, alpha is set at 0.1. Likewise, bootstrapping
technique is utilized to introduce the gauge for the main time
frame. The bootstrap technique expect that the main year's
business conjecture equivalents to the principal year's business
request (see the exceed expectations sheet, cell B6 is the same
as cell E6). Utilizing a similar request information, the
exponential smoothing gauge is built up utilizing the
accompanying formula.
A
B
G
3
Year
Sales (000)
Exponential Smoothing Forecast (alpha= 0.1)
5
0.1
6
1980
52.04
=B6
7
1981
59.42
=G5*B6+1(1-G5)*G6
8
1982
55.66
=$G$5*B7+(1-$G$5)*G7
9
1983
53.86
=G5*B8+(1-G5)*G8
10
1984
64.59
=G5*B9+(1-G5)*G9
11
1985
75.28
=G5*B10+(1-G5)*G10
Mean Absolute Deviation
Forecasters tend to use mean absolute deviation to measure
model error. Mathematically,
Mean Absolute Deviation = ∑n (Dt- Ft) /n
t=1
The mean absolute deviation for 3-year and 5-year moving
midpoints are - 3.12 and - 4.48 separately. One might say that
the five year moving normal model is superior to anything the
three year moving normal model in determining future deals as
a result of a lower mean absolute deviation. The mean absolute
deviation of smoothing exponential, then again, is - 13.49. By
and large, in view of the mean absolute deviation the smoothing
exponential is the best model for guaging on the grounds that it
has the most minimal mean absolute deviation value.
References
Nahmias, S., & Cheng, Y. (2009). Production and operations
analysis (Vol. 6). New York, NY: McGraw-Hill.
Nahmias, S., & Olsen, T. L. (2015). Production and operations
analysis. Long Grove, IL: Waveland Press.
Hyndman, R., Koehler, A. B., Ord, J. K., & Snyder, R. D.
(2008). Forecasting with exponential smoothing: the state space
approach. Berlin, Germany: Springer Science & Business
Media.
Six sigma yellow belt Training II (TESLA)
John Banzali, Tonya Wright, Benjamin Brown, Mellisa H,
Terrence Wilburn, Tyzenia Williams
University of Phoenix
John Soltys
Introduction
Determine the most likely causes of defects
Understand why defects are generated by identifying the key
variables most likely to create process variation.
Tools for variable / Tools for control
Key Variables
Control Phase
Control and monitoring improvements
Tools for maximum acceptance ranges
Continuous Improvements
Today’s power point will go over the key areas to which six
sigma has been implemented or could be implemented in Tesla
motors. We will go over key areas such as determining the most
likely cause of defects. Which has gain more notoriety with
their recent push to for driverless vehicles and the other issues
that have surfaced in their vehicles. We will also identify why
the defects are generated by identifying variables and how a
process variation is crated. We will go over the analyze and
control phases which includes variables, tools that Tesla will
need to implement.
2
Determine the most likely causes of defects
Improper training of employees
Employees rushing and not using correct parts
Company pushing quantity and do not push quality
Company do not maintain service on equipment
There are many things that causes defects on Tesla
automobile’s. It is important for Tesla team to analyze their
product and staff work performance for issues. Things such as
employee not being trained properly, Tesla using the wrong
parts and the company not maintains service on there equipment
can lead to defects of the products and services that are being
produced. Faulty products mean the final products do not meet
the expected quality and will not meet customer specification.
This could badly effect relationships with customers and have
negative affect for Tesla’s business. In the automobile industry,
companies such as Tesla’s, can encounter defects that result
from numerous problems. First, when employees are not
properly trained, they will not produce products of the desired
quality and will not offer the desired level of customer service
to ensure customer satisfaction. Further, failure to service and
maintain their machines and equipment would mean that these
tools would not work as expected increasing likelihood of
defects occurring. Lastly, considering that Tesla is among the
leading automobile industry, it’s management could be offering
rewards to their employees who produce more units, without
considering the quality of the produced products, this in itself
could cause more defects for the company.
3
Understand why defects are generated by identifying the key
variables most likely to create process variation.
Bring up-to-date Technology
Update Equipment
Up to date Software packages
Customer Safety
In identifying Tesla variables, they have to improve the process
until they have eliminated the excessive variation. Moreover, as
process variations occur in a production process, it changes the
final results from the anticipated outcome. Process variations
could be small, in control, and need no controlling of processes
or could be large, meaning that the processes need to be
controlled. Large process variations could be caused by internal
or external factors to a industry. Process variations affects
success of business processes. Tesla’s, process variation could
be a result of numerous variables including; the equipment
used, technology, method of production, or employee
performance. When the automobile industry uses different
equipment in its production process, it presents process
variation. Equally, different employees within the company
could differently use the equipment resulting in process
variation. Changing the order of steps in which similar
processes are executed could also create process variation. In
addition, technologies adopted in the company’s processes
could also create process variations. Lastly, in order for Tesla
to provide a high quality of automobiles, it has to have a system
to identify variables and update technology, update equipment,
enhance software packages in the vehicles and make the car
more safe for customers.
4
Tools for variables
The tools that aid in maintaining the variables are statistics,
design, and measurement analysis. The statistical analysis is a
scientific method to monitoring and interpreting data. The
variables of measurement for Tesla are for quality improvement
and customer satisfaction They are, the number of cars sold,
customer satisfaction scores, and turn around time for customer
delivery. The tools are intended to ensure that the variables
are tracked and within the acceptable range of the maximum and
minimum variables. “In monitoring a process using SQC,
samples of the process output would be taken and sample
statistics calculated. The distribution associated with the
samples should exhibit the same kind of variability as the actual
distribution of the process, although the actual variance of the
sampling distribution would be less. This is good because it
allows the quick detection of changes in the actual distribution
of the process. The purpose of sampling is to find when the
process has changed in some nonrandom way, so that the reason
for the change can be quickly determined” (Jacobs & Chase,
2014, p.318).
5
Statistics
Design
Measure
Tools for control
Process improvement and quality improvement utilize the
analytics and lean thinking to improve systems and customer
satisfaction. ”Measurement by attributes means taking samples
and using a single decision—the item is good or it is bad.
Because it is a yes or no decision, we can use simple statistics
to create a p-chart with an upper process control limit (UCL)
and a lower process control limit (LCL). We can draw these
control limits on a graph and then plot the fraction defective of
each individual sample tested. The process is assumed to be
working correctly when the samples, which are taken
periodically during the day, continue to stay between the
control limits. The analysis can be done with charts to show the
data” (Jacobs & Chase, 2014, p.324).
The use of data in a graphical display aids in the understanding
of the change in practice from pre-intervention to post-
intervention. The lean thinking model assists in reducing waste
and making the model and process more efficient. “A lean
organization understands customer value and focuses its key
processes to continuously increase it. The ultimate goal is to
provide perfect value to the customer through a perfect value
creation process that has zero waste” (Lean Enterprise Institute,
2018).
6
Process Improvement
Analysis
Lean
Key Variables
Proper Employee Training
Quality inspections
Effective quality time management
Quality equipment maintenance
Importance to Quality
Customer complaints is key measure and critical to the quality
of tesla products. In order for Tesla become one the leaders in
the luxury car marketplace it has to define certain metrics that
have to be met in order to satisfy the customer base. The factors
related to quality could be limited to both the product and
service associated with Tesla’s brand. In order to maintain the
variables that are critical to the quality, several areas of quality
have to be quantified. All employees and management must
have quality training and equipment training associated with the
final product. Time management has to be measured in
reference to the quality of the product versus the quantity.
7
Identify and measure
Flow chart
Opportunity flow diagram
Pareto Charts
Linear regression techniques
Exponential smoothing
During the design process the product will need to be evaluated
to assure that quality metrics are adhered to. There are many
variable to be considered to achieve the quality that Tesla plans
to maintain in the luxury automobile market. Many tool can be
used to monitor and establish the metric necessary to quality.
Flow chart to outline process, opportunity flows diagrams as
well as pareto charts will be use as markers. In order to
maintain the processes, variance for certain metrics have to be
in place and adhered to and are critical to the quality of Tesla
products. Linear regression techniques and exponential
smoothing could be used establish a variance to meets the
expected quality.
8
Tesla Manufacturing process
Tesla's manufacturing process includes various construction
stages that include the use robots, electronics and skilled
technicians. According to Rassweiler, the manufacturing of the
Tesla auto motives include electronics which make the design of
the Tesla like a high-end smartphone.
The manufacturing process for Tesla includes the use of special
robots, to manufacture battery packs, battery modules, and drive
units that are manufactured in-house. The Tesla plant also has a
high level of integration with processes that includes stamping
and machining, painting, and some coding. Sixty percent of the
car parts are purchased from North America and Japan.
According to White (2014), “Each vehicle is made to order
with a two to three-month wait time for delivery, with the
delivery being made by train which reduces the delivery cost
and the amount of damages made to the car”. Tesla uses a
traditional production line and a custom manufacturing process.
The traditional manufacturing production line is suited for a
high volume of manufacturing for a single product, and the
custom manufacturing process is used to manufacture
customized products and requires skilled employees and
specialized equipment to modify and customize each order.
9
Modifying a process to stay within an acceptable range
Process Analysis
SWOT Analysis
Lean Manufacturing
A process is a series of steps in a supply chain or value stream
which transform raw materials and inputs such as labor into a
finished product to be purchased by a customer. A process
analysis establishes the base for a process to be modified under
future circumstances to handle cost change or production
changes under the new conditions. Process analysis consists of
several steps and can be achieved with the use of different tools
and concepts. Some of the Process Analysis steps include
understanding the process, collecting data, and analyzing the
collected data to identify the performance needs /or gaps
between the current operation and what the customer has paid
for. Process analysis also help managers the specific
components, steps or tasks that are holding back the process,
impacting customer satisfaction/experience or hurting the
business operationally and financially (Murry, n.d.).
A production manager will often use an Operations consultant
when the manufacturing process needs to be modified or
changed. The Operation Consultant follows a structured
approach to define the current situation, create a problem
statement, and identify the desired situation and goals for the
company to achieve customer satisfaction. The consultant will
often perform a SWOT analysis to identify the production
needs.
According to Jones (n.d.), "managers use Lean Six Sigma
projects to make improvements to address a business problem –
such as increasing output, reducing cycle time or reducing
defects. Using the DMAIC (Define, Measure, Analyze, Improve,
and Control) methodology, improvements are implemented to
address the problem. Without appropriate control measures,
improvements are likely to drift back to the original baseline.
To maintain process improvements, the management teams has
to maintain the buy-in of the process, the quality of each
solution implemented, accountability, and an eagerness for the
actions within the Control phase to be completed by the project
team.
10
Control Phase
The last phase of the Six Sigma's DMAIC model is the Control
stage.
The focal point of this stage is to ensure that the activity thing
made in the Improve stage is all around executed and kept up.
A few apparatuses are utilized as a part of this phase to ensure
that factors are inside its breaking points (Cudney, 2017).
Exercises, for example, checking the correct execution of
initiative(s), control diagrams are being utilized, and adequacy
of the activities are additionally assessed.
To institutionalize the strategy and reports, the rules and the
obligations are additionally imparted to the correct gathering or
person.
Work force who are specifically influenced by the task should
be prepared and checked too.
Process control is the doing of distinguishing and utilizing
viable activities and estimations to ensure that the course meets
the characterized guidelines and prerequisites of the client.
There are two classifications of data types. These are
continuous data also called the variable data, and the discrete
data. Examples of continuous data are currency, weight, time,
temperature, and the like. Here, data is acquired is through
measurement. This is characterized with no gaps amongst
observations.
11
Control and monitoring improvements
This stage utilizes a number of tools.
The most widely recognized device is the Control Chart.
Task proprietors watch the advance of the procedure through
the control graph.
It is likewise an absolute necessity that task proprietor can
translate the control graph so the venture group can make a
reference log implying what the undertaking proprietor should
search for (Cudney, 2017).
The graphs are separated through as far as possible arrangement
of three sigma from the course mean.
. In control stage factual means are connected to the course with
a specific end goal to decide the surprising reason from an
incessant reason for course variety.
This is called measurable process control. This is finished by
plotting the figures after some time and coordinating up to the
outcomes to as far as possible.
The fundamental reason of utilizing control graphs is to see the
assignable reasons for course variety with the goal that
examination and neutralizing activity will be completed to
dispense with the assignable reasons for process disparity
before there is an over the top number of accommodating units
created or conveyed administrations. This is likewise utilized
for keeping the course inside measurable control.
12
Tools for maximum acceptance ranges
Tools
Casual Analysis Tools
Scatter Plots
Regression Analysis
Time Analysis
Design of Experiments
Cause and Effect
There are many tools that can be utilize to make sure the
organization is reaching the maximum acceptances ranges.
These tools can be utilized to gather accurate and identify
important trends. For example, Tesla can use the Scatter Plot or
Scattergram to measure its miles per gallon average. The fact
that Tesla boasts one of the best cars with these kind of
features, these kind of tools are essential for this process.
Regression analysis and time analysis can break down
production, areas that need to be improved in order to
accommodate the demand of production. With constant
technological innovations Tesla’s ability to keep an edge is
what keeps them ahead of most motor vehicle manufacturers.
13
Conclusion
“As with anything in life and business there are no guarantees.
The reality is that 12 years since incorporating Tesla Motors has
morphed from start-up to an established industry player. What
doesn’t change is its extraordinary story and its place as a
pioneer in a frontier of electronic cars.”
Six Sigma + Tesla = SUCCESS
Aside from having the hottest vehicles in the world they
constantly innovate in their daily processes. From
manufacturing, to distribution, to sales tactics, Tesla is state of
the art. They practice good strategies and utilize great tools in
order to delete waste and maximize efficiency. They train their
employees well, they understand the importance of gathering
the right (accurate) data and never forget the demands and
trends that attract their customers. They have revolutionized and
pushed what vehicles are and will be, and most importantly
continuously putting emphasis in the importance of constant
change and improvement. With the utilization and mastery of
the Six Sigma training, they can further push and innovate their
products that will solidify them as a driving force and one of
the best manufacturing organizations for years to come.
14
Citation
Cudney, E. A., & Agustiady, T. (2017). Design for Six Sigma:
A practical approach through innovation.
Jacobs, F., & Chase, R. B. (2014). Operations and supply chain
management (14th ed.). [Bookshelf]. Retrieved from
https://phoenix.vitalsource.com/#/
Jones, O. (n.d.). How Do Organizations Sustain Improvements?
Control!. Retrieved from
https://www.isixsigma.com/methodology/dmaic-
methodology/how-do-organizations-sustain-improvements-
control/
Lean Enterprise Institute. (2018). What is lean? Retrieved
from https://www.lean.org/WhatsLean/
Citation
Murry, M. (n.d.). Manufacturing process. Retrieved from
https://www.thebalance.com/manufacturing-process-2221376
Process Improvement Strategy and continuous improvement
strategy. (n.d.). Retrieved from
http://www.leanmanufacture.net/operations/processimprovement
strategy.aspx
Six Sigma DMAIC – Control Phase. (2015). Retrieved from
http://www.whatissixsigma.net/six-sigma-dmaic-control-phase/
White, G. (2014). How the Tesla Model S is made. Retrieved
from http://www.manufacturingglobal.com/technology/how-
tesla-model-s-made
Weighlabel. (2018). 6 sigma and DMAIC - The Analyze Phase.
Retrieved from https://weighlabel.com/2014/10/6-sigma-and-
dmaic-the-analyze-phase/
OPERATION CONSULTING : BEBE STORES
Benjamin Brown
OPS/571
March 26, 2018
Prof. John Sloyts
1
Bebe Stores have been struggling to survive online competition
they did not expect nor see it coming. Decline in sales have
made them realized that there is more that needs to be
done("Bebe Stores are closing down. Here's the list", 2018).
2
Introduction
Also known as operations management
Improves the value chain
Creates effective client operations
Creates functional business processes
Operations consulting is also known as operations management
refers to the advisory services that an organization uses to
improve its value chain. Businesses that employ the services of
operations consulting are able too create more effective client
operations. This is done by advising and supporting how
changes are implemented in the organization, as well as
“creating business processes that are functional” (O'Mahoney,
Markham and O'Mahoney, 2013).
In addition, business that employ operations consulting are also
able to improve the systems used in management and the
organizational culture, which results in improvement of all
other elements of the values chain.
3
Company Struggling in Operations
Bebe Stores Stores
Decline in sales
Competition from well known competing stores
Has resulted in closure of some stores
Customers not able to shop online
An example of a company that is struggling in its model of
operation is Bebe Stores Stores.
This company is making an attempt to shift from brick-and-
mortar chain to have its products retailed online. Over the past
years, several of the company’s stores have been closed down
with an aim of reducing the drag that the company is
experiencing in its earnings. For instance, in the last year, Bebe
Stores Stores announced that it will close more that its 160
stores, as a result from online competition like amazon (Li,
2018).
Bebe Stores Stores faces huge competition from large online
retailers such as Amazon.com and they still have not been in a
position to keep up with them. Yes, the Columbus-based
discount and closeout retailer has a website, but people haven’t
been able to buy anything from the company online.
4
Operations Planning Toolkit
Problem definition
Data gathering
Data analysis
In order to clearly understand the problem that the company is
going through and to have it back on track, there are several
measures that can be put in place which would enable the
business minimize the problems it has and increase the sales.
The first step should be to identify the causes of the failure or
to identify the problematic areas in the organization. After
identification of the problem, the relevant data should then be
gathered from all the people involved, this being the first step
in trying to come up with a solution to the problem identified.
After collection of data, it should be then be classified and
analyzed, for instance, the problems with similar cause can be
grouped together.
5
Operations Planning Toolkit

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Six sigma yellow beltTyzenia Renee Williams, Tonya wright, Ter.docx

  • 1. Six sigma yellow belt Tyzenia Renee Williams, Tonya wright, Terrence willburn, Melissa Hoolulu, John banzali, ben Ops 571 Professor soltys March 19, 2018 1 Customers and Their Priorities CUSTOMERS Businesspeople Travelers Younger generation PRIORITIES Affordability Incentives Consideration Many people choose Tesla for various reasons. Business people require the most luxury form of transportation and want to be seen getting out of a beautiful car as they pull up to work or family excursions. Each buyer has a different reason for purchasing the Tesla and each reason has a corresponding priority. Business people may prefer the convenience option that accompanies the car. Tesla’s are full of provisions for satisfying customer needs, like its electrical feature and
  • 2. environmental safeties. The Tesla are made to order by their customers with the options that they choose, certain items differ, but the convenience of service is available. Offering Wi- Fi is a reasonable perk for keeping customers connected with technology. All customers have similar opportunities and customers have several options. Tesla is certainly a competitor that strives to provide the appropriate, and necessary, amenities for their loyal customers. Customers prefer options, ease of travel, and particular amenities to get the most out of this beautiful car. In addition, employee and customer incentive programs are often a consideration for loyal customers. Incentives allow the customer affordability and economical provisions along with particular in Tesla perks. Other considerations, like safety and the green initiative exhibit the pensiveness of the company encourages customers to order their vehicles months ahead of time when they trade it in trade it back to the Tesla company. 2 Business objectives To sell as many high quality units as possible Maintain high customer satisfaction Maintain a credible reputation Six Sigma is a business improvement program that was designed originally for manufacturing companies However, its efficiency in furthering business objectives has made its way to a wide variety of project management, sales and marketing, and other organizations in need of an increase in quality and efficiency by identifying defects in the system and correcting it (Madhani, 2017). High end car brands such as Tesla have used Six Sigma to ensure quality in its products. Like any business, the objective is to sell as many high quality units as possible while maintaining high customer satisfaction, hence, a very credible
  • 3. reputation in the automotive industry. Tesla manufacturers use this program to produce high quality cars that meet the high expectations of its clients. Ensuring that what they purchase with the very expensive car is worth every cent, Six Sigma professionals check every detail in the process of creating a masterpiece of a car. 3 Customer needs Timely production Detail precision with specifications Inventory management From the time a model is created, Six Sigma can check out if specifications are meticulously met. This is to prevent recalls once sales are made. Waste is also prevented so that process flow is uninterrupted and stagnation is avoided. Examples of wastes that Six Sigma checks are as follows: “Defects, Overproduction, Waiting, Non-Utilized Talent, Transportation, Inventory, Motion, and Extra-Processing” (O’Rourke, 2018, para.1). With this list, Tesla vehicles are checked in both the process as well as the product, and all forms of waste are identified and eliminated so that the whole process of Tesla car manufacturing becomes more efficient, cost-effective, and achieves customer satisfaction. For example, prolonged waiting time for supplies or delivery time will cost much money, as customers may change their minds due to loss of patience for the long wait in service or the delivery of their purchased car. As a result, they may cancel their order, thus, losing profit for the company. The waiting and
  • 4. delay may be caused by very slow motion of workers. Hence, Six Sigma can recommend the appropriate employee training or impose policies on effective time management. Another example is the quality of inventory management kept by the company. If more inventory is kept than what is required, it may not only take up valuable space in the storage area but can keep resources ineffectively stuck disabling it from becoming liquid. On the other hand, lack of inventory can also result in delays, because supplies need to be ordered prolonging the manufacturing process. Six Sigma standards are very helpful in maintaining high quality in businesses as it achieves organizational goals and meet customer expectations. 4 Productivity of Operation / Quality of Service Productivity of Operations Errors in Production of Tesla Vehicles Quality of Products Tesla Vehicle Quality Customer Satisfaction Overall Customer Satisfcation No other vehicle manufacturer is hotter than Tesla. From it’s immensely popular vehicles such as Tesla’s Model S sedans, to there Model x SUV’s they are definitely becoming one of the more popular car manufacturers not only in the United States but in the world. It seems that Tesla has definitely have things figured out. Unfortunately, like many organizations there are and will always be areas that can be improved.
  • 5. One area that the organization has not mastered are the issues that they have when it comes to their production line. One of the more known issues that the organization has is that many of their vehicles (mostly electric), end up needing immediate repairs. “The luxury cars regularly require fixes before they ca leave the factory, according to the workers. Quality checks have routinely revealed defects in more than 90 percent of Model S and Model X vehicles inspected after assembly” (Six Sigma, 2017 ). This is where Six Sigma can definitely make a huge difference as it will put more emphasis in eliminating waste and correcting the organizations processes in order to decrease errors in their production. Six Sigma can also help in making sure that the quality of Tesla vehicles are optimized creating a chain of events that make the buyers much happier customers. Customer satisfaction is everything in the motor vehicle business. Tesla with its innovations and ground breaking vehicles have got the populations attention making them one of the more popular and sought after vehicles in the land. However, if these common issues in vehicle production continue to rise, the less reliable they will become. With other larger motor vehicle organizations cleaning up and focusing more on quality, The six sigma processes can help clean up waste, issues, and continue to boost customer satisfaction by making the very best and innovative motor vehicles in the land. 5 Problems looming for Tesla Resolving the concerns of safety Production with the new batterires shortage has to be addressed This Photo by Unknown Author is licensed under CC BY-NC- SA
  • 6. Tesla has position itself as one of the top luxury vehicles in the market. There still remains to be unmet needs of the targeted audience. Tesla has to address the recall issues that stated that auto pilot is unsafe and parking brake problems. Bridging the gap to high performance luxury car, yet the reliability issue aren’t match the performance. As orders continue to sore for the new affordable models of the Tesla the burning question still exist that the makers can’t keep up with orders and safety concerns have to be addressed at a more timely manner. As the new model start to hit the market, a new problem has arouse of will Tesla be able to produce the battery that is capable of giving the car the increased drive time. 6 Critical to quality characteristics The customer satisfaction for Tesla is important to the sustainability of the high quality cars and production. The customers satisfaction revolves around three main quality characteristics of time, inventory, and customization. These three elements are essential performance and satisfaction characteristics. The shorter the time is to receiving the car the higher the satisfier. The more inventory the company has in stock, the more likely they are to meet the customers needs for preference. Further, the ability for the customization are also high satisfiers. “CTQs are the key measurable characteristics of a product or process whose performance standards or specification limits must be met in order to satisfy the customer. These outputs represent the product or service characteristics defined by the customer (internal or external). They may include the upper and lower specification limits or any other factors related to the
  • 7. product or service. Typically, a CTQ must be interpreted from a qualitative customer statement to an actionable, quantitative business specification. Establishing CTQs is vital for a company to meet customer needs and keep up with the competition” (Stroud, n.d). 7 Time Inventory Detail precision for customization Manufacturing metrics that Matter in the Auto industry Business executives apply metrics in the right context and in innovative ways to solve production Flow problems, and meet their customer demands. Source : Tesla In the manufacturing industry, manufacturing executives use available manufacturing metrics to figure out what business issues need to be addressed. Manufacturing executives use financial and non-financial measures, (KPIs) to help make decisions to pinpoint the strengths and weaknesses of their business and show whether they are in line with their strategic
  • 8. objectives (Hennel, 2014). The MESA organization (Manufacturing Enterprise Solution s Association) sponsor research each year to identify the most important manufacturing metrics to improve the production flow and to align the metrics with core processes and its critical-to- quality (CTQ) characteristics. According to the Hennel, (2014), “ the results of the research identified the following manufacturing metrics that are vital to the automobile industry and other manufacturing companies: Customer Experience & Responsiveness Manufacturing Metrics Quality Manufacturing Metrics which include Efficiency Manufacturing Metrics Inventory Metrics 5. Maintenance Manufacturing Metrics 6. Flexibility & Innovation 7. Costs & Profitability Manufacturing Metrics Customer Fill Rate/On-Time delivery/Perfect Order Percentage – The percentage of times that customers receive the entirety of their ordered manufactured goods, to the correct specifications, and delivered at the expected time”.
  • 9. 8 Tesla model 3 production problems Inexperience Workers 2. Manual Assembly of the Lithium batteries Source : Tesla The Tesla Model 3 was the most anticipated car in the history of the auto industry after it was revealed in March 2016. The Model 3 launched in July 2017, but the company did not meet the production quota. The Tesla's Gigafactory in Nevada has had issues with the battery supply chain. The subcontractor did not meet their part of the manufacturing contract causing Tesla to have to redo many of the mechanical and electrical elements of the battery production quota. Tesla had a large number of pre-orders, and did not anticipate having battery challenges. Tesla needs battery packs to build 500,000 Model 3s, but the
  • 10. company can honestly produce 20,000 units. According to (DeBord, 2017) , the Tesla employees states there will be more delays because of inexperienced workers, and the required manual assembly of the batteries. 9 Metrics used to measure production problems Customer Experience & Responsiveness Manufacturing 2. Quality Manufacturing Metrics 3. Inventory Metrics 4. Customer Fill Rate/ On Time Delivery According to the, (Hennel, 2014), “ the results of the research identified the following manufacturing metrics that are vital to the automobile industry and other manufacturing companies: Customer Experience & Responsiveness Manufacturing Metrics On-Time Delivery
  • 11. Manufacturing Cycle Time The Time to Make Changeovers Quality Manufacturing Metrics Yield - The percentage of products that are manufactured correctly and to specifications the first. Customer Rejects/Return Material Authorizations/Returns Supplier’s Quality Incoming – The percentage of good quality materials coming into the manufacturing process from a given supplier. Inventory Metrics WIP Inventory/Turns – Measures the efficient use of inventory materials that are used to produce goods. 4. Customer Fill Rate/On-Time delivery/Perfect Order Percentage – The percentage of times that customers receive the entirety of their ordered manufactured goods, to the correct specifications, and delivered at the expected time”. 10 Tesla bottleneck in their battery production A shortage of graphite, The raw material needed to make the lithium Batteries.
  • 12. Source: Ron Struthers Battery metals are in short supply as companies race to build EVs and energy storage system, says Ron Struthers of Struthers Resource Stock Report. According to Struthers 92017), “the Tesla Gigafactory expansion needs 45,000 tons per year of additional mined graphite to meet the customer per ordered cars. To produce battery grade graphite (anode material) over 50% of the mined graphite is lost in the process. Two graphite companies in Canada have received environmental permits, but even if financing and construction was started today, it would still take two to three years to see production. 11 Internal process ctq Detail measurements Audio Speed Design
  • 13. The internal process CTQ’s are related to design and manufacturing a high quality vehicle. The detailed measurements are quantifiable to creating a pristine car. The quality of the audio, the speed at which the vehicle accelerates and the overall design are internal measurements of CTQs. Defects are measured and tracked to the process. The internal CTQs are a measurement that is quantifiable and aids in review of any delays or deficiencies that may impact internal quality and also customer satisfaction. If a door does not have a soft closure, the detail measurements are reviewed for quality. The same would be true for audio, speed, and design. The CTQs are important to internal quality and important to customer quality. 12 References DeBord, M. (2017). Why Tesla's Model 3 production problems are troubling. Retrieved from https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/25/tesla-employees-say- gigafactory-problems-worse-than-known.html Hennel, P. (2014). Manufacturing metrics that matter most: A comprehensive checklist. Retrieved from http://cerasis.com/2014/07/16/manufacturing-metrics/
  • 14. Madhani, P.M. (2017). Six sigma deployment in sales and marketing: Enhancing competitive advantages. The IUP Journal of Business Strategy, 14 (2): 40-63. O’Rourke, T. (2018). 8 Wastes, Retrieved from: https://goleansixsigma.com/8-wastes-muda/ Reuters (2017). Tesla assembly lines are getting bogged down with mistakes. Retrieved from nypost.com/2017/11/29/tesla- assembly-lines-are-getting-bogged-down-with-mistakes/ Stroud, D. (n.d). Defining ctq outputs: a key step in the design process. Retrieved from https://www.isixsigma.com/methodology/voc-customer- focus/defining-ctq-outputs-key-step-design-process/ Struthers, R. (2017). Battery production more than a Tesla nightmare . Retrieved from https://www.streetwisereports.com/article/2017/11/28/battery- production-more-than-a-tesla-nightmare.html 6sigma.us. (2017). Six Sigma Case Study: Ford Motors. Retrieved from. www.6sigma.us/uncategorized/six-sigma-case- study-ford-motors/ .MsftOfcThm_Accent1_Fill { fill:#4472C4; }
  • 15. .MsftOfcThm_Accent1_Stroke { stroke:#4472C4; } Sheet1Quantitative Forecasting: Ribs Sales DataABCDEFYearSales (000)3-Year Moving Mean Absolute5- Year MovingMean AbsoluteExponential SmoothingMean Absolute AverageDeviationAverageDeviationForecast (Alpha = 0.1)Deviation0.1198052.04052.040198159.4217.346666666752. 04-7.38198255.6637.153333333352.778- 2.882198353.8655.70666666671.846666666753.0662- 0.7938198464.5956.3133333333-8.276666666753.14558- 11.44442198575.2858.0366666667-17.243333333357.114- 18.16654.290022- 20.989978198661.8964.57666666672.686666666761.762- 0.12856.3890198-5.5009802198773.7467.2533333333- 6.486666666762.256-11.48456.93911782- 16.80088218198881.1970.3033333333-10.886666666765.872- 15.31858.619206038-22.570793962198997.5272.2733333333- 25.246666666771.338-26.18260.8762854342- 36.6437145658199086.584.15-2.3577.924-8.57664.5406568908- 21.9593431092199183.1888.40333333335.223333333380.168-
  • 16. 3.01266.7365912017- 16.4434087983199287.0589.06666666672.016666666784.426- 2.62468.3809320815- 18.6690679185199384.7985.57666666670.786666666787.0882. 29870.2478388734- 14.5421611266199473.4985.006666666711.516666666787.8081 4.31871.702054986- 1.787945014199576.2381.77666666675.546666666783.0026.77 271.8808494874-4.3491505126199696.5478.17-18.3780.948- 15.59272.3157645387- 24.2242354613199795.0882.0866666667-12.993333333383.62- 11.4674.7381880848- 20.3418119152199887.0589.28333333332.233333333385.226- 1.82476.7723692763-10.2776307237199996.0292.89- 3.1385.678-10.34277.8001323487- 18.2198676513200098.992.7166666667-6.183333333390.184- 8.71679.6221191138- 19.2778808862200183.2393.9910.7694.71811.48881.549907202 5-1.6800927975200292.716666666792.05681.7179164822- 68.551431.188-98.548-296.7791648221Mean Absolute Deviation-3.115909090965.054-4.4794545455-13.4899620374 Sheet2 Sheet3 Running head: FORECASTING QUANTITY USING EXCEL
  • 17. 1 FORECASTING QUANTITY USING EXCEL 4 Forecasting Quantity Using Excel Student’s Name Institution Forecasting Quantity Using Excel Introduction In the ever dynamic business environment the ability to accurately forecast sales is of absolute importance. In the absence of accurate forecasts organizations waste resources by having overstocking or under stocking. Organizations utilize different techniques for guaging to precisely foresee client request. Anticipating can either be qualitative or quantitative. Quantitative guaging uses recorded information in anticipating customer request (Nahmias & Olsen, 2015). This paper focuses on qualitative approaches, particularly, moving averages and
  • 18. exponential smoothing methods of forecasting using excel spreadsheet. Quantitative Forecasting Moving averages These are the most straightforward strategy for quantitative determining. It is for the most part a smoothing model that outcomes in more precise estimates. The primary thought behind moving normal is to utilize information from y periods to gauge future request. Longer moving midpoints dependably result in smooth informational collections (Nahmias & Cheng, 2009). Mathematically; Moving average= ∑n Dt /n t=1 Where Dt is the data in period t and n is the number of periods in moving averages. Moving Average using Excel Spreadsheet In the demand data (show in the excel sheet), the restaurant manager needs to gauge interest for ribs for one year from now. In the illustration, the manager has the genuine request information for as far back as 22 years. He chooses to utilize a 3-year and a 5-year moving average to decide or estimate the next year's request. The scientific recipe for three year and five year moving midpoints are as per the following; 3 Year Moving Average = (Dt + Dt -1 + Dt-2) 3
  • 19. 5 Year Moving Average = (Dt +Dt-1 +Dt-2 +Dt-3+ Dt-5) 5 Where D represents demand and t is time. The moving averages forecasts are developed manually using the following formulae in the excel spreadsheet A B C D 3 Year Sales (000) 3-year moving average 5-year moving average 6 1980 52.04 7
  • 21. 1986 61.89 =(B11+B10+B9)/3 =(B11+B10+B9+B8+B7)/5 13 1987 73.74 =(B12+B11+B10)/3 =(B12+B11+B10+B9+B8)/5 14 1988 81.19 =(B13+B12+B11)/3 =(B13+B12+B11+B10+B9)/5 15 1989 97.52 =(B14+B13+B12)/3 =(B14+B13+B12+B11+B10)/5 The actual forecasts for the 22 years are contained in the excel sheet. Based on the moving average analysis, the three year moving average sales forecast is 92,716 United States dollars while the 5 year moving average sales forecast is 92,056 United States dollars.
  • 22. Exponential Smoothing This is one of the most commonly used methods of quantitative forecasting because of its cost effectiveness as well as short term precision. Exponential smoothing is slightly complex compared to the traditional moving average method of forecasting. Exponential smoothing combines previous forecasts with weighted error measurements, which is the difference between the previous forecast and actual observation during prior forecast. Also, it requires users to select value for alpha, which must be between 0 and 1.0 (Hyndman et al., 2008). Mathematically, Exponential Smoothing = Ft+1 = Ft +α* et Where t = time Ft = Forecast at time t α = the smoothing constant, which is a value between 0 and 1.0 et = Dt-Ft Where Dt =Real perception of time t Hence, the stated below is the newly written equation; Ft+1 = Ft +α* (Dt-Ft) Exponential Smoothing Using Excel Sheet In the illustration, alpha is set at 0.1. Likewise, bootstrapping technique is utilized to introduce the gauge for the main time frame. The bootstrap technique expect that the main year's business conjecture equivalents to the principal year's business request (see the exceed expectations sheet, cell B6 is the same
  • 23. as cell E6). Utilizing a similar request information, the exponential smoothing gauge is built up utilizing the accompanying formula. A B G 3 Year Sales (000) Exponential Smoothing Forecast (alpha= 0.1) 5 0.1 6 1980 52.04 =B6 7 1981 59.42 =G5*B6+1(1-G5)*G6 8
  • 24. 1982 55.66 =$G$5*B7+(1-$G$5)*G7 9 1983 53.86 =G5*B8+(1-G5)*G8 10 1984 64.59 =G5*B9+(1-G5)*G9 11 1985 75.28 =G5*B10+(1-G5)*G10 Mean Absolute Deviation Forecasters tend to use mean absolute deviation to measure model error. Mathematically, Mean Absolute Deviation = ∑n (Dt- Ft) /n t=1 The mean absolute deviation for 3-year and 5-year moving midpoints are - 3.12 and - 4.48 separately. One might say that the five year moving normal model is superior to anything the three year moving normal model in determining future deals as
  • 25. a result of a lower mean absolute deviation. The mean absolute deviation of smoothing exponential, then again, is - 13.49. By and large, in view of the mean absolute deviation the smoothing exponential is the best model for guaging on the grounds that it has the most minimal mean absolute deviation value. References Nahmias, S., & Cheng, Y. (2009). Production and operations analysis (Vol. 6). New York, NY: McGraw-Hill. Nahmias, S., & Olsen, T. L. (2015). Production and operations analysis. Long Grove, IL: Waveland Press. Hyndman, R., Koehler, A. B., Ord, J. K., & Snyder, R. D. (2008). Forecasting with exponential smoothing: the state space approach. Berlin, Germany: Springer Science & Business Media. Six sigma yellow belt Training II (TESLA) John Banzali, Tonya Wright, Benjamin Brown, Mellisa H, Terrence Wilburn, Tyzenia Williams University of Phoenix John Soltys
  • 26. Introduction Determine the most likely causes of defects Understand why defects are generated by identifying the key variables most likely to create process variation. Tools for variable / Tools for control Key Variables Control Phase Control and monitoring improvements Tools for maximum acceptance ranges Continuous Improvements Today’s power point will go over the key areas to which six sigma has been implemented or could be implemented in Tesla motors. We will go over key areas such as determining the most likely cause of defects. Which has gain more notoriety with their recent push to for driverless vehicles and the other issues that have surfaced in their vehicles. We will also identify why the defects are generated by identifying variables and how a process variation is crated. We will go over the analyze and control phases which includes variables, tools that Tesla will
  • 27. need to implement. 2 Determine the most likely causes of defects Improper training of employees Employees rushing and not using correct parts Company pushing quantity and do not push quality Company do not maintain service on equipment There are many things that causes defects on Tesla automobile’s. It is important for Tesla team to analyze their product and staff work performance for issues. Things such as employee not being trained properly, Tesla using the wrong parts and the company not maintains service on there equipment can lead to defects of the products and services that are being produced. Faulty products mean the final products do not meet the expected quality and will not meet customer specification. This could badly effect relationships with customers and have negative affect for Tesla’s business. In the automobile industry, companies such as Tesla’s, can encounter defects that result from numerous problems. First, when employees are not properly trained, they will not produce products of the desired
  • 28. quality and will not offer the desired level of customer service to ensure customer satisfaction. Further, failure to service and maintain their machines and equipment would mean that these tools would not work as expected increasing likelihood of defects occurring. Lastly, considering that Tesla is among the leading automobile industry, it’s management could be offering rewards to their employees who produce more units, without considering the quality of the produced products, this in itself could cause more defects for the company. 3 Understand why defects are generated by identifying the key variables most likely to create process variation. Bring up-to-date Technology Update Equipment Up to date Software packages Customer Safety In identifying Tesla variables, they have to improve the process
  • 29. until they have eliminated the excessive variation. Moreover, as process variations occur in a production process, it changes the final results from the anticipated outcome. Process variations could be small, in control, and need no controlling of processes or could be large, meaning that the processes need to be controlled. Large process variations could be caused by internal or external factors to a industry. Process variations affects success of business processes. Tesla’s, process variation could be a result of numerous variables including; the equipment used, technology, method of production, or employee performance. When the automobile industry uses different equipment in its production process, it presents process variation. Equally, different employees within the company could differently use the equipment resulting in process variation. Changing the order of steps in which similar processes are executed could also create process variation. In addition, technologies adopted in the company’s processes could also create process variations. Lastly, in order for Tesla to provide a high quality of automobiles, it has to have a system to identify variables and update technology, update equipment, enhance software packages in the vehicles and make the car more safe for customers. 4 Tools for variables
  • 30. The tools that aid in maintaining the variables are statistics, design, and measurement analysis. The statistical analysis is a scientific method to monitoring and interpreting data. The variables of measurement for Tesla are for quality improvement and customer satisfaction They are, the number of cars sold, customer satisfaction scores, and turn around time for customer delivery. The tools are intended to ensure that the variables are tracked and within the acceptable range of the maximum and minimum variables. “In monitoring a process using SQC, samples of the process output would be taken and sample statistics calculated. The distribution associated with the samples should exhibit the same kind of variability as the actual distribution of the process, although the actual variance of the sampling distribution would be less. This is good because it allows the quick detection of changes in the actual distribution of the process. The purpose of sampling is to find when the process has changed in some nonrandom way, so that the reason for the change can be quickly determined” (Jacobs & Chase, 2014, p.318). 5 Statistics
  • 31. Design Measure Tools for control Process improvement and quality improvement utilize the analytics and lean thinking to improve systems and customer satisfaction. ”Measurement by attributes means taking samples and using a single decision—the item is good or it is bad. Because it is a yes or no decision, we can use simple statistics to create a p-chart with an upper process control limit (UCL) and a lower process control limit (LCL). We can draw these control limits on a graph and then plot the fraction defective of each individual sample tested. The process is assumed to be working correctly when the samples, which are taken periodically during the day, continue to stay between the control limits. The analysis can be done with charts to show the data” (Jacobs & Chase, 2014, p.324).
  • 32. The use of data in a graphical display aids in the understanding of the change in practice from pre-intervention to post- intervention. The lean thinking model assists in reducing waste and making the model and process more efficient. “A lean organization understands customer value and focuses its key processes to continuously increase it. The ultimate goal is to provide perfect value to the customer through a perfect value creation process that has zero waste” (Lean Enterprise Institute, 2018). 6 Process Improvement Analysis Lean Key Variables Proper Employee Training Quality inspections Effective quality time management
  • 33. Quality equipment maintenance Importance to Quality Customer complaints is key measure and critical to the quality of tesla products. In order for Tesla become one the leaders in the luxury car marketplace it has to define certain metrics that have to be met in order to satisfy the customer base. The factors related to quality could be limited to both the product and service associated with Tesla’s brand. In order to maintain the variables that are critical to the quality, several areas of quality have to be quantified. All employees and management must have quality training and equipment training associated with the final product. Time management has to be measured in reference to the quality of the product versus the quantity. 7 Identify and measure Flow chart Opportunity flow diagram Pareto Charts
  • 34. Linear regression techniques Exponential smoothing During the design process the product will need to be evaluated to assure that quality metrics are adhered to. There are many variable to be considered to achieve the quality that Tesla plans to maintain in the luxury automobile market. Many tool can be used to monitor and establish the metric necessary to quality. Flow chart to outline process, opportunity flows diagrams as well as pareto charts will be use as markers. In order to maintain the processes, variance for certain metrics have to be in place and adhered to and are critical to the quality of Tesla products. Linear regression techniques and exponential smoothing could be used establish a variance to meets the expected quality. 8 Tesla Manufacturing process Tesla's manufacturing process includes various construction
  • 35. stages that include the use robots, electronics and skilled technicians. According to Rassweiler, the manufacturing of the Tesla auto motives include electronics which make the design of the Tesla like a high-end smartphone. The manufacturing process for Tesla includes the use of special robots, to manufacture battery packs, battery modules, and drive units that are manufactured in-house. The Tesla plant also has a high level of integration with processes that includes stamping and machining, painting, and some coding. Sixty percent of the car parts are purchased from North America and Japan. According to White (2014), “Each vehicle is made to order with a two to three-month wait time for delivery, with the delivery being made by train which reduces the delivery cost and the amount of damages made to the car”. Tesla uses a traditional production line and a custom manufacturing process. The traditional manufacturing production line is suited for a high volume of manufacturing for a single product, and the custom manufacturing process is used to manufacture customized products and requires skilled employees and specialized equipment to modify and customize each order. 9
  • 36. Modifying a process to stay within an acceptable range Process Analysis SWOT Analysis Lean Manufacturing A process is a series of steps in a supply chain or value stream which transform raw materials and inputs such as labor into a finished product to be purchased by a customer. A process analysis establishes the base for a process to be modified under future circumstances to handle cost change or production changes under the new conditions. Process analysis consists of several steps and can be achieved with the use of different tools and concepts. Some of the Process Analysis steps include understanding the process, collecting data, and analyzing the collected data to identify the performance needs /or gaps between the current operation and what the customer has paid for. Process analysis also help managers the specific components, steps or tasks that are holding back the process, impacting customer satisfaction/experience or hurting the business operationally and financially (Murry, n.d.). A production manager will often use an Operations consultant
  • 37. when the manufacturing process needs to be modified or changed. The Operation Consultant follows a structured approach to define the current situation, create a problem statement, and identify the desired situation and goals for the company to achieve customer satisfaction. The consultant will often perform a SWOT analysis to identify the production needs. According to Jones (n.d.), "managers use Lean Six Sigma projects to make improvements to address a business problem – such as increasing output, reducing cycle time or reducing defects. Using the DMAIC (Define, Measure, Analyze, Improve, and Control) methodology, improvements are implemented to address the problem. Without appropriate control measures, improvements are likely to drift back to the original baseline. To maintain process improvements, the management teams has to maintain the buy-in of the process, the quality of each solution implemented, accountability, and an eagerness for the actions within the Control phase to be completed by the project team. 10 Control Phase The last phase of the Six Sigma's DMAIC model is the Control stage.
  • 38. The focal point of this stage is to ensure that the activity thing made in the Improve stage is all around executed and kept up. A few apparatuses are utilized as a part of this phase to ensure that factors are inside its breaking points (Cudney, 2017). Exercises, for example, checking the correct execution of initiative(s), control diagrams are being utilized, and adequacy of the activities are additionally assessed. To institutionalize the strategy and reports, the rules and the obligations are additionally imparted to the correct gathering or person. Work force who are specifically influenced by the task should be prepared and checked too. Process control is the doing of distinguishing and utilizing viable activities and estimations to ensure that the course meets the characterized guidelines and prerequisites of the client. There are two classifications of data types. These are continuous data also called the variable data, and the discrete data. Examples of continuous data are currency, weight, time, temperature, and the like. Here, data is acquired is through measurement. This is characterized with no gaps amongst observations.
  • 39. 11 Control and monitoring improvements This stage utilizes a number of tools. The most widely recognized device is the Control Chart. Task proprietors watch the advance of the procedure through the control graph. It is likewise an absolute necessity that task proprietor can translate the control graph so the venture group can make a reference log implying what the undertaking proprietor should search for (Cudney, 2017). The graphs are separated through as far as possible arrangement of three sigma from the course mean. . In control stage factual means are connected to the course with a specific end goal to decide the surprising reason from an incessant reason for course variety. This is called measurable process control. This is finished by plotting the figures after some time and coordinating up to the outcomes to as far as possible. The fundamental reason of utilizing control graphs is to see the
  • 40. assignable reasons for course variety with the goal that examination and neutralizing activity will be completed to dispense with the assignable reasons for process disparity before there is an over the top number of accommodating units created or conveyed administrations. This is likewise utilized for keeping the course inside measurable control. 12 Tools for maximum acceptance ranges Tools Casual Analysis Tools Scatter Plots Regression Analysis Time Analysis Design of Experiments Cause and Effect There are many tools that can be utilize to make sure the organization is reaching the maximum acceptances ranges. These tools can be utilized to gather accurate and identify important trends. For example, Tesla can use the Scatter Plot or Scattergram to measure its miles per gallon average. The fact
  • 41. that Tesla boasts one of the best cars with these kind of features, these kind of tools are essential for this process. Regression analysis and time analysis can break down production, areas that need to be improved in order to accommodate the demand of production. With constant technological innovations Tesla’s ability to keep an edge is what keeps them ahead of most motor vehicle manufacturers. 13 Conclusion “As with anything in life and business there are no guarantees. The reality is that 12 years since incorporating Tesla Motors has morphed from start-up to an established industry player. What doesn’t change is its extraordinary story and its place as a pioneer in a frontier of electronic cars.” Six Sigma + Tesla = SUCCESS Aside from having the hottest vehicles in the world they constantly innovate in their daily processes. From manufacturing, to distribution, to sales tactics, Tesla is state of the art. They practice good strategies and utilize great tools in order to delete waste and maximize efficiency. They train their
  • 42. employees well, they understand the importance of gathering the right (accurate) data and never forget the demands and trends that attract their customers. They have revolutionized and pushed what vehicles are and will be, and most importantly continuously putting emphasis in the importance of constant change and improvement. With the utilization and mastery of the Six Sigma training, they can further push and innovate their products that will solidify them as a driving force and one of the best manufacturing organizations for years to come. 14 Citation Cudney, E. A., & Agustiady, T. (2017). Design for Six Sigma: A practical approach through innovation. Jacobs, F., & Chase, R. B. (2014). Operations and supply chain management (14th ed.). [Bookshelf]. Retrieved from https://phoenix.vitalsource.com/#/ Jones, O. (n.d.). How Do Organizations Sustain Improvements? Control!. Retrieved from https://www.isixsigma.com/methodology/dmaic- methodology/how-do-organizations-sustain-improvements- control/ Lean Enterprise Institute. (2018). What is lean? Retrieved from https://www.lean.org/WhatsLean/
  • 43. Citation Murry, M. (n.d.). Manufacturing process. Retrieved from https://www.thebalance.com/manufacturing-process-2221376 Process Improvement Strategy and continuous improvement strategy. (n.d.). Retrieved from http://www.leanmanufacture.net/operations/processimprovement strategy.aspx Six Sigma DMAIC – Control Phase. (2015). Retrieved from http://www.whatissixsigma.net/six-sigma-dmaic-control-phase/ White, G. (2014). How the Tesla Model S is made. Retrieved from http://www.manufacturingglobal.com/technology/how- tesla-model-s-made Weighlabel. (2018). 6 sigma and DMAIC - The Analyze Phase. Retrieved from https://weighlabel.com/2014/10/6-sigma-and- dmaic-the-analyze-phase/
  • 44. OPERATION CONSULTING : BEBE STORES Benjamin Brown OPS/571 March 26, 2018 Prof. John Sloyts 1 Bebe Stores have been struggling to survive online competition they did not expect nor see it coming. Decline in sales have made them realized that there is more that needs to be done("Bebe Stores are closing down. Here's the list", 2018). 2
  • 45. Introduction Also known as operations management Improves the value chain Creates effective client operations Creates functional business processes Operations consulting is also known as operations management refers to the advisory services that an organization uses to improve its value chain. Businesses that employ the services of operations consulting are able too create more effective client operations. This is done by advising and supporting how changes are implemented in the organization, as well as “creating business processes that are functional” (O'Mahoney, Markham and O'Mahoney, 2013). In addition, business that employ operations consulting are also
  • 46. able to improve the systems used in management and the organizational culture, which results in improvement of all other elements of the values chain. 3 Company Struggling in Operations Bebe Stores Stores Decline in sales Competition from well known competing stores Has resulted in closure of some stores Customers not able to shop online An example of a company that is struggling in its model of operation is Bebe Stores Stores. This company is making an attempt to shift from brick-and- mortar chain to have its products retailed online. Over the past years, several of the company’s stores have been closed down
  • 47. with an aim of reducing the drag that the company is experiencing in its earnings. For instance, in the last year, Bebe Stores Stores announced that it will close more that its 160 stores, as a result from online competition like amazon (Li, 2018). Bebe Stores Stores faces huge competition from large online retailers such as Amazon.com and they still have not been in a position to keep up with them. Yes, the Columbus-based discount and closeout retailer has a website, but people haven’t been able to buy anything from the company online. 4 Operations Planning Toolkit Problem definition Data gathering Data analysis
  • 48. In order to clearly understand the problem that the company is going through and to have it back on track, there are several measures that can be put in place which would enable the business minimize the problems it has and increase the sales. The first step should be to identify the causes of the failure or to identify the problematic areas in the organization. After identification of the problem, the relevant data should then be gathered from all the people involved, this being the first step in trying to come up with a solution to the problem identified. After collection of data, it should be then be classified and analyzed, for instance, the problems with similar cause can be grouped together. 5 Operations Planning Toolkit