overview of public opinion and activities/influence of interest groups

2. Influencing Government –Influencing Government –
Part 2Part 2
Public Opinion, Polls, InterestPublic Opinion, Polls, Interest
groups, lobbies and PACsgroups, lobbies and PACs

3. PublicPublic
OpinionOpinion
• What is it?
– ideas and attitudes that *most people hold
about a particular issue or person.
• Which public?
– Often not a consensus on issues – diversity
of beliefs [but watch how people and
organizations use the term “public opinion”
• Why does it matter?
– It supports democracy by informing officials
of people’s ideas and opinions
– Serves to direct or even shape government
priorities and actions
– Is that what public officials should do? The
answer may not be that simple [they never
are]
* What does “most” mean, and how do we
determine it?

4. Measuring public opinionMeasuring public opinion
• Public Opinion PollsPublic Opinion Polls
– Asking people to answerAsking people to answer content neutral questionscontent neutral questions aboutabout
their views and preferences.their views and preferences.
– Creating the polling universe – accounting for all theCreating the polling universe – accounting for all the
significant demographics [age, religion, gender, ethnicity,significant demographics [age, religion, gender, ethnicity,
region, income level, party affiliation, education, etc., etc.]region, income level, party affiliation, education, etc., etc.]
– Asking 1500 gives you an accuracy of +/- 3% nationwideAsking 1500 gives you an accuracy of +/- 3% nationwide
• E.g. a result of 55% could actually be as high as 58% or as low asE.g. a result of 55% could actually be as high as 58% or as low as
52%52%
• Push PollsPush Polls
– Questions are worded so they influence – manipulate – aQuestions are worded so they influence – manipulate – a
person’s responses one way or the other.person’s responses one way or the other.
• ““Which would you choose, a candidate who is tough on crime, orWhich would you choose, a candidate who is tough on crime, or
your neighborhood overrun with drugs and violence?”your neighborhood overrun with drugs and violence?”
• So the organization can claim “85% of Americans agree with us!”So the organization can claim “85% of Americans agree with us!”
• Now it’s propaganda [the bad kind]Now it’s propaganda [the bad kind]

5. Public Polls – Good or Bad?Public Polls – Good or Bad?
• YesYes
• Support for pollsSupport for polls
– It allows office holders to know how the public feels inIt allows office holders to know how the public feels in
between elections.between elections.
– Pretty accurately predicts election outcomes on election dayPretty accurately predicts election outcomes on election day
[exit polls][exit polls]
• Problems with PollsProblems with Polls
– The horse race – focus on who’s ahead rather than issuesThe horse race – focus on who’s ahead rather than issues
– Also makes elected officials care more about what the publicAlso makes elected officials care more about what the public
thinks instead of being a leader and making wise decisionsthinks instead of being a leader and making wise decisions
• ““There go my people. I must find out where they are going so I canThere go my people. I must find out where they are going so I can
lead them.” [clip fromlead them.” [clip from The War at Home @ 35:04The War at Home @ 35:04]]
– May influence opinion as many will not want to be in aMay influence opinion as many will not want to be in a
minority position [bandwagon effect/spiral of silence]minority position [bandwagon effect/spiral of silence]

6. President Obama’s Approval RatingPresident Obama’s Approval Rating
• What does this mean?What does this mean?
• What might it mean?What might it mean?

7. Approval Ratings of Past PresidentsApproval Ratings of Past Presidents
What’s the trend? How much of this is self-reinforcing or self-fulfilling
prophecy?
How might that affect Congressional races? [we talked about this]
Or relations between Congress and the President? [we talked about this, too.]

8. Interest and Lobby GroupsInterest and Lobby Groups
• What are they?
– Groups with a common cause and
interest
• Connects people to activism and
possibly gov’t [freedom of assembly
– Attempt to influence policy makers
• Provide expert opinion and
information
• Often contribute heavily to
campaigns
– Many can count strength in
numbers – NRA, NOW
– Others’ strength is in legal/political

9. Interest and Lobby Groups, by typeInterest and Lobby Groups, by type
• Public interest groups
– Support causes for that
effect the lives of
American’s in general.
– Single issue groups
– Common Cause, Public
Citizen
• Economic groups
– Often represent/support
professional groups
[lawyers, soft drink
bottlers, tobacco
growers, etc., etc. ad
nauseum]
• Political action
committees (PAC’s)
– Fundraising and spending
for interest groups, unions
and corporations
– $$ contributions from
members are “bundled”
and used to advance an
issue and/or candidate
– Contribution limits
– Account for around 30%
of campaign donations
• Good or Bad?
– What’s the bad? [let’s talk!]
– What’s the good? [let’s talk!]
YES!

10. What and who are lobbyists?What and who are lobbyists?
• Lobbyists
– Representatives of interest
groups who contact
lawmakers or other
government officials
directly, to push their
interests.
• Pros?
– What they know
– A voice
• Cons?
– Revolving door?
– $$
– Influence?