Lecture, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, part II. By Victor Galaz

1. The Quest for the Governance Möbius Strip

2. Adaptive Management
Adaptive management
management approach that
promotes
experimentation, and
hypothesis testing.
e.g. Everglades, Florida

3. Adaptive co-management
Adaptive co-management; a combination that
promotes multilevel institutional linkages,
shared responsibility between a diversity of
actors, combination of knowledge sources,
as well as learning.
(Olsson et. al. 2004, Berkes et. al. 2003)

4. Example: Kristianstad (SE), Krüger Park (SA), Bali water
temples (Indonesia), Tiszra (Central Europe),…
Network based governance relies heavily on social
coordination and control, collective sanctions and
reputations -> requires repeated interactions,
restricting the numbers of actors in networks, often
geographical proximity.

5. Fish and Ebola virus

6. Climate
change
Agro-
ecosystems
Coral reef
Increased
bushmeat
hunting
Fish stock
decrease

7. Too Good to be
True?
“High Reliability
Organizations” -
organizations with the
capacity to cope with
both incremental
change and
catastrophic surprises.

8. Capacity to collect and analyze very large
amounts of information, detect early
warning signals, and facilitate fast
coordination of large number of actors.
Decision-making dependent on the type of
change in environment.
High capacity for learning after crises,
strong incentives to report and take
initiatives to repair mistakes and cope with
surprises.

9. Global Environmental Governance
after Kyoto
1. Weak signals bring about strong
action
2. Decision-making dependent on
type of change.
3. High investment in learning after
“near-misses” and crises
Think about the political challenges…

10. Successful crisis response require
Early warnings (knowledge integration)
•
• Sense making (”What’s going on?”)
• Prompt coordination and response
• Crisis termination (”normal state”)
• Learning and reform
All this needs to be done despite institutional
fragmentation, multilevel challenges, high uncertainty, and
limited time to act.

11. Is it possible? Governing Epidemics
Bild epidemics

14. Bubonic Plage, Surat (India)1994
In 1994 the spread of bubonic plague in
the city of Surat deaths of 57 people,
significant economic losses, and
How small innovations and
social and political effects. Over
perceived crisis makes a
300,000 people deserted the city (in
two days!)
global difference!

15. ”atypical pneumonia”, ”unknown respiratory disease”

17. WHO
Country A
Country B

19. Global Outbreak Alert and Response Network (GOARN)
- Collaboration between
over 120 actors
(governments, ministries,
laboratories, NGO’s)
- prompt coordination to
secure fast response
(SARS, Ebola, bird flu
m.m.)

20. Pre-crises phase

21. Warning Confirmation phase

22. Warning Response phase

23. Not just theory…
”Early response” coordinators
- legal frameworks that allow actors to act (e.g.
International Health Regulations)
- unhindered information flows between a diversity of
actors, from local to global.
- informal, personal contacts and trust, and ”low-tech”
interactions.

24. We are far away from such a system…
WHO/GOARN UNEP Division for Early Warning and
Assement
Early warnings: builds on both ”formal” and
”informal data” (GPHIN, ProMed). 1,1 builds on both formal data
Early warnings: million
Euro/Yr
only. Acknowledged bias and lack of
Response: Prompt in collaboration with WHO,
regional offices, NGO’s,data. 77,5 million Euro/yr
health ministries,
technical labs. Response: Recommendations to
Tools: coordinating arenas, adhoc groups, secure or non-existing
governments -> slow
webpages, teleconferences. Constant
Tools: assessments, facilitation of
”disturbances”.
knowledge production (GEO-4, etc.)

25. We are far away from such a system…
The role of knowledge
Early warnings - multiple knowledge domains and disciplines.
Uncertainty is very high. Continous updates necessary.
I. Infectious disease - ecological sciences, climate change, human
medicine, veterinary sciences, urbanization experts, etc.
II. Drivers and impacts of ”agflation” - financial market specialists,
vulnerability experts, ecologists, crisis management scholars,
biofuel experts, water management scholars, agricultural
experts.

26. We are far away from such a system…
The role of knowledge
• Academics work in disciplinary ”silos” - incentives
• Governments organizations work in ”silos”- efficiency
• Local communities and NGO’s with detailed knowledge about
social context, ecosystem change, and adaptive strategies not
always integrated - mistrust, efficiency
• Business community not targeted/not interested
Incremental change gives room for mistakes. Abrupt irreversable
ecological change does not.

27. The Dynamics of Early Warnings
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D4rq53Ztvbg

28. No repeated global
assessment of ecosystem
change (c.f. IPCC)
Fragmented social,
economical and ecological
Is there any hope?
data – trends impossible,
geographic gaps.
Economic evaluation of ES
incl. GEO-4, 'tipping points'
not included.

29. International Panel for
Ecosystem Services
(IPES)?

31. Both incremental
change
and abrupt
surprising change
including
cascading
dynamics

36. Eco ”tipping points”
A change at the tipping point sets in motion mutually
reinforcing feedback loops that propel the system on
a completely new course.

44. Governance for innovation
• Innovation research tends to focus on innovations in business
and technical systems
• Can they be applied for SES innovations?
• Institutional context? Policy interventions?
• Global orchestration?

45. Summing up
• Solutions at the interface - technology, ecology and social
sphere
• Positive ”tipping points” - escalating improvements, not only
crises.
• Quality of Governance - include dynamics of SES.
• Information technology could have revolutionary impact on
governance.
• Building on past successes - HRO, WHO, prompt global actions.
IPES!

46. Thank you!
victor.galaz@stockholmresilience.su.se