IDMP CEE 2nd workshop: IPCC new reports by Kajfez Bogataj

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IDMP CEE 2nd workshop: IPCC new reports by Kajfez Bogataj

  1. 1. Monitoring of climate system
  2. 2. Fate of Anthropogenic CO2 Emissions (2003-2012 average) 2.6 ± 0.5 GtC/yr 27% 8.6 ± 0.4 GtC/yr 92% +0.8 ± 0.5 GtC/yr 8% 2.6 ± 0.8 GtC/yr 27% Calculated as the residual of all other flux components 4.3±0.1 GtC/yr 45%
  3. 3. It is extremely likely that more than 50% of the warming since 1951 is due to the increase in greenhouse gases and other anthropogenic forcings together
  4. 4. IPCC AR5 2013 It is warmer across the globe than it was a century ago
  5. 5. Global natural disasters 1980 – 2013 Geophysical, meteorological, hydrological events
  6. 6. Representative Concentration Pathways Vir: Van Vuuren et al (2011) The representative concentration pathways: an overview. Climatic Change DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0148-z
  7. 7. Ranges for predicted surface warming
  8. 8. Projections Europe (RCP4.5) 2081-2100 versus 1986-2005 Temperature (oC) Precipitation (%) winter summer winter half summer half
  9. 9. 2010-2029 2030-2049 2050-2069 2070-2089 20 40 60 80 100 PERCENTAGEOF YIELDPROJECTIONS 0 2090-2109 0 – -5% -5 – -10% -10 – -25% -25 – -50% -50 – -100% 50 – 100% 25 – 50% 10 – 25% 5 – 10% 0 – 5% Range of Yield Change Increase in Yield Decrease in Yield Crop Yield Change
  10. 10. Alleviating rivalries between economic sectors? Climatic change Water resources Tourism Agriculture Mining Conflict mitigation through improved water governance? Energy
  11. 11. WITH CONTINUED HIGH EMISSIONS INCREASE RISKS OF CLIMATE CHANGE

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