GCISC- Global change impact study centre

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ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY
ASSIGNMENT # 1

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GLOBAL CHANGE IMPACT STUDIES CENTRE
INTRODUCTION
Global Change Impact Studies Centre is a dedicated research institute for climate change studies
in Pakistan. The Centre is mandated for national level R&D effort, capacity building, policy
analysis, information dissemination and assistance to national planners and policymakers on
issues related to past and projected future climatic changes in the country, their likely impacts on
the key socio-economic sectors of the country such as water, food, agriculture, energy, forestry,
health, and ecology, and appropriate adaptation and mitigation measures.
Climatology and Environment
The Climatology section uses a simulation and modelling approach to study the past behavior
and future trends in the climate system in Pakistan. The key areas of research include climate
system modelling, past and projected climatic changes, climatic extremes, research on intra
seasonal to decadal predictability, estimation of GHG emissions (energy sector and industrial
processes) and linking energy and environment models for emission projections and
identification of optimum mitigation strategies.
INSTITUTIONAL CAPACITY OF GCISC
Projects:
Over the last ten years GCISC has actively participated in number of collaborative international /
regional research and capacity building projects, playing the lead role in several of them as
outlined below:
On-going Projects:
APN Project:
Climate smart agriculture through sustainable water use management: Exploring new approaches
and devising strategies for climate change adaptation in South Asia. Participating countries:
Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Cambodia. Lead Organization: GCISC, Pakistan.
Completed Projects:
1. APN Project: Enhancement of National Capacities in the Application of Simulation Models
for Assessment of Climate Change and its Impacts on Water Resources and Food and
Agricultural Production (2003-2007). Participating countries: Pakistan, Nepal and
Bangladesh. Lead Organization: GCISC in collaboration with PMD, Pakistan.
2. UNEP Pilot Project: Information technology (IT) as a tool for information generation and to
cope and optimize management of climate variability and change (2005). Participating
countries: Pakistan and India. Lead Organization: The Energy and Resources Institute of
India.
3. GECAFS Project: Basin scale analysis of the vulnerability of food systems to global
environmental change (2005-2006). Participating countries: Pakistan, India, Nepal and

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Bangladesh. Lead Organization: Global Environmental Change and Food Security
(GECAFS), UK.
4. APN Project: Assessment of Food and Water Security in South Asia using Crop Simulation
and Water Management Model, and appropriate strategies to meet future demand (2008-
2013). Participating countries: Pakistan, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. Lead Organization:
GCISC, Pakistan.
5. APN Project: Impacts of global change on the dynamics of snow, glaciers, and runoff over
the Himalayan Mountains and their consequences for Highland and downstream regions
(2008-2010). Participating countries: Pakistan, Nepal, China and India. Lead Organization:
Institute for Development & Innovation (IDI), Nepal.
COLABORATION
In view of the multi-disciplinary nature of its work the Centre endeavors to carry out its activities
in collaboration with various relevant international and national organizations (in the past). Now
GCISC is in the process of renewal of the MOUs with different international and national
organizations.
The main collaborating partners are /were:
International
 APN: Asia Pacific Network for Global Change Research, Japan;
 DHM: Department of Hydrology and Meteorology, Nepal;
 EV-K2-CNR EV-K2 National Centre for Research, Italy
 IITM: Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, India;
 University of Newcastle, UK
National
 PMD: Pakistan Meteorological Department.
 UAF: University of Agriculture, Faisalabad.
 UAAR: University of Arid Agriculture, Rawalpindi.
 WAPDA: Water and Power Development Authority.
GCISC CONTRIBUTION & RECOGNITION
i) Major Contributions by GCISC Senior Scientists towards preparation of:
 Final Report of the Planning Commission's Task Force on Climate Change (2010) - a
seminal document;
 National Climate Change Policy (2012);
 Work Programme for Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation in Pakistan: Priority Areas
(2014);
(ii) Prestigious Role by a Senior GCISC Scientist as a Lead Author of the Chapter on 'Food
Security & Food Production Systems' in the WG-II Part of the 5th Assessment Report (AR5) of
IPCC (2014);
(iii) Recognition by Asia Pacific Network for Global Change Research (APN, Kobe, Japan) for
two GCISC led Regional Projects;

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 Capacity Building Project on Simulation Modeling (2003 - 2008):
- recognized as a Model Project
 Research Project on Climate Extremes (2005-2009)
- recognized as an Outstanding Project
(iv)Award of 'Dr. Mubashir Hassan Medal' in March 2014 to a Research Paper presented by
GCISC at Pakistan Engineering Congress, 2011.
ACTIVITIES
Assessment of past climate trends over Pakistan:
 Evaluation and application of IPCC- GCMs for construction of future climate projections
over Pakistan
 Identification, assessment and application of appropriate regional climate models (RCMs) to
develop fine scale climate projections over Pakistan for impact assessment studies
 Identification, assessment and application of appropriate tools/models for the study of intra
seasonal to decadal climate prediction
 Development and application of climate extreme indices and indicators for monitoring and
prediction of trends in climate extremes and their socio-economic impacts
 Development and regular updating of GHG emission inventory of Pakistan (energy sector
and industrial processes) following the methodologies laid down in IPCC guidelines
 Analysis of GHG emissions projections and identification of optimum mitigation strategies
for various source categories in Pakistan’s energy system by linking energy and environment
models.
Monsoon Variability & Predictability:
Natural variability of monsoon rains causes increase in frequency and intensity of hydro-
meteorological disasters such as floods, heavy monsoonal rains, and droughts etc.ÂHuge
variations are encountered in the rainfall amount, which can have far reaching impacts on the
economy of the country.
The precise predictability of monsoon rains has now become a need and an economically
important exercise, and is necessary for meeting the country’s requirements regarding water
resources, agriculture and for other purposes.
Pakistan basically is an agrarian based country and agriculture contributes around a quarter to the
country’s GDP. Agricultural economy, however, is closely linked to the erratic behavior of
monsoon rains over Pakistan.
The weighted monsoon (June to September) precipitation over the country, as a whole, is almost
twice as high as the winter (December to March) precipitation. Dominant sources of water are
brought by this monsoon rains.
Climate Extremes and Heat Waves:
Weather & Climate Extremes (such as floods, drought, heat waves, warm days, warm nights and
extreme rainfall etc.) occur with increasing frequency and confront societies across the globe.
Extreme weather events exact terrible tolls in human life, in social and economic stability, in
livelihoods, in national security.

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Predicting extreme weather patterns, explaining the role of large-scale ocean circulation systems
in abrupt climate change, and demonstrating that changes in Earth’s past climate, were linked to
variations in the earth’s rotation. Extreme weather and climate issues are not only among the
most important research issues of today, but that they require creative solutions that cross
traditional boundaries. Assessment of future changes in the frequency and intensity of weather
and climate extremes using regional and global climate models.
Over the last few decades, weather and climate extremes have become a major focus of
researchers, the media and general public due to their damaging effects on human society and
infrastructure. Pakistan experienced the last century’s worst flood in the Jhelum River in 1992
(National Flood Forecasting Bureau, 1992, Pakistan Meteorological Department). In 1999, a
severe cyclonic storm hit the coastal areas of Pakistan and India and brought devastation to the
coastal areas of both countries.
Pakistan faced the country’s worst drought during the period 1998-2001 (Sheikh, 2001).
Conversely, a record of 620 mm of rain fell in Islamabad, Pakistan, during 10 hours in July 2001,
bringing urban storm flooding and causing catastrophic losses to life and property (Rasul et al.,
2004).
1400 people were died and over 14000 people hospitalized due to heatwave in June 17th and
June 24th 2015 in Sindh Pakistan. The temperature in Sindh was between 45°C - 49°C).
Ministry of climate change issued a technical report stating a very high heat index (measuring
the heat stress on humans due to high temperature and relative humidity) (Chaudhry et al., 2015).
Water Resources & Glaciology:
The objectives of this Section include the assessment of likely climate change impacts on
snow/glacier-fed fresh water resources of Pakistan. The methodology used for this purpose is the
simulation of various hydrological processes of the Indus River System, and the identification of
appropriate coping mechanisms, including changes in the water management strategies to deal
with the adverse impacts and meet future demands for agriculture, drinking water, hydropower
generation, and industry and river ecology.
High elevation climate change assessment:
 Empirical/Statistical downscaling (e.g. Weather generators) of GCM/RCM climate data (e.g.
CORDEX) for use in hydrologic studies
 Assessing hydrological changes of Upper Indus Basin under different future scenarios
through RS/GIS aided hydrological modelling to investigate;
 Water availability in the near and far future
 Changes in the inter and intra-annual pattern of melt water from snow/glacier and resultant
river flows
 Groundwater modelling in the context of climate change
 Assessing hydrologic impacts in the Indus River Delta
HKH hydrological projection:
The increasing rate of warming is significantly higher in the Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH)
region than the global average in the past century (Duet al 2004). The warming influence is
much higher in the Eastern Himalayas compared with the Greater Himalayan region (Sheikh et al
2014). These temperature variations can have a potential impact on water resources of the UIB

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and the dependent downstream irrigation demand areas, which are of great concern. In HKH
region snow melt and glacier melt yield collectively account more than 70% of UIB stream-
flows. Most part of HKH lies above 5,000 meters and contains the second-highest peak of K2
mountain i.e. above 8,000meter. Most of the annual precipitation in UIB falls during winter and
spring (December-April, DJFMA) due to western disturbances that is eastward propagating
synoptic systems embedded into westerly flow (Madhura et al 2014) whereas the summer
monsoon and local circulations only accounts 1/3 of annual precipitation (Young and Hewitt
1990). The climatic conditions of UIB are different from other regions of the country; as the
monsoon circulation weakens towards northwest in UIB where high mountains of the Himalaya
decrease the effect of monsoon circulation. Although the lower elevation stations do not monitor
very high precipitation during both the winter and summer, but in contrast high altitude stations
usually recorded much higher precipitation. Previous studies suggested very significant
precipitation gradient at high altitudes and even at some parts (>5000 meters) of the basin the
annual precipitation exceeds 2000 mm (Mukhopadhyay and Khan 2014). Fowler and Archer
(2006), reported an increasing trend in both precipitation and temperature during winter while a
cooling in summer temperatures over the past century. The average river flow to Tarbela
reservoir at BeshamQila reaches 2425 cumecs (cubic meters per second) with the variation
between 80% to 130 % from the mean. There are eight meteorological observatories (Kakul,
Garidupatta, Balakot, Astor, Bunji, Skardu, Gilgit, and Gupis) in the study area.
Hydrological projections:
Total riverflow is continuously increasing over time in the Upper Indus River. The increasing
rate of riverflow in both RCPs is enhanced during the first two time slices (2006,2035 and
2041,2070), while it is smaller and not in the same ratio during the last time slice (2071,“2100)
in RCP8.5 and it even decreases for RCP4.5 when compared with 2041,“2070. In the summer for
RCP4.5, the increase is 24% during 2006,“2035, 32% during 2041,“2070, and 26% during
2071,“2100. In RCP8.5, the percentage increase is 23% during 2006,“2035, 50% during
2041,“2070, and 55% during 2072,“2100. The results show that percent increase is higher in
winter than summer in both scenarios. Maximum river flow occurring in summer shows that the
highest river flow in RCP8.5 is of 9720 cumecss for the period of 2006,“2035, 11 837 cumecs
for the period of 2041,“2070, and 12 222 cumecs for the period of 2071,“2100. In RCP4.5 the
highest river flow in summer is 9783 cumecs for the period of 2006,“2035, 10 428 cumecs for
the period of 2041,“2070, and 9954 cumecs for the period of 2071,“2100. The projection for
increased river flow was higher in RCP8.5 than RCP4.5, mainly due to a significant increase in
temperatures.
HKH Glaciers
The Himalayas-Karakoram-Hindu-Kush (HKH) region hosts multiple extended glaciers. The
Karakoram Range, situated in the upper Indus basin, has an extensive formation of glaciers due
to its high altitude (Young et al. 1990). The eastern and northwestern Himalayas are seasonally
snow covered; however, the snow-cover extent of the central Himalayas is relatively limited
(Menegoz et al. 2013b). Glaciers located in this region are an important source of freshwater for
China, Pakistan, Nepal and India. Glaciers are also good indicators of climate change, and a
minor climate variation, such as temperature change, can produce a rapid glacial response (e.g.,
Vuille et al. 2008a; Soruco et al. 2009; IPCC, 2013; Rabatel et al. 2013). The snow-covered area

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on a glacier affects water balance determination and radiation, which are important components
in climate studies and the hydrological cycle (e.g., Cohen et al. 2001; Stieglitz et al. 2001).
The extent, thickness and melt rate of snow-covered areas depend on geographical location,
elevation, season, solar irradiance, and atmospheric pollutant concentrations and deposition on
the snow surface (Kopacz et al. 2011; Menegoz et al. 2014). In the Himalayas region, the largest
snow extent occurs in the elevation zone between 3000 and 6000 m (Maskey et al. 2011).
Glaciers in many parts of the world, such as those in the tropical Andes, are currently retreating,
similar to those in polar regions (Bradley et al. 2006; Vuille et al. 2008a; IPCC, 2013; Rabatel et
al. 2013). Glacier shrinkage has also been prevailing over the Third Pole region (e.g., Donghui et
al. 2007; Kang et al. 2010; Fujita et al. 2011; Kaab et al. 2012; Bolch et al. 2012; Yao et al.
2012; Neckel et al. 2014; Kang et al. 2015). Negative mass balance was also confirmed from in
situ stake observations during the last decade for the Tibetan Plateau and Urumqi glacier no. 1 of
the Tianshan Mountains (Yao et al. 2012; Zhang et al. 2014). Snow deposition and loss are
primarily controlled by the atmospheric condition and state of the land surface. Anthropogenic
pollutants, such as black carbon deposited on snow, were found to shorten the snow cover season
in the Northern Hemisphere (Ménégoz et al. 2013a). In the central Himalayas, it was
estimated that the deposition of atmospheric pollution on snow could reduce the snow cover
season at the rate of 8 days per year. It was also observed that depositions of black carbon on
snow contribute significantly to the decrease in snow cover extent (Dery et al. 2007). Regional
temperature variation, solar energy flux and precipitation are the main factors that affect a
glaciers mass balance (Pouyaud et al. 1997; Francou et al. 1998). It is expected that the present
retreating behavior of glaciers will continue in the future (Oerlemans et al. 1998; Shi et al. 2000).
Similarly, it has been found that both snow melt and snowfall were strongly influenced by even
minor temperature increases (US EPA CCD Snow and Ice).
Changes in the snow-covered area of selected glaciers:
Snow-covered areas of four glaciers with different aspects (Passu: 36.473°N, 74.766°E;
Mumhil: 36.394°N, 75.085°E; Trivor: 36.249°N, 74.968°E; and Kunyang: 36.083°N,
75.288°E) in the upper Indus basin, northern Pakistan, from 1990-2014. The snow-covered
areas of the selected glaciers were identified and classified using supervised and rule-based
image analysis techniques in four different seasons. Snow-covered areas on the selected glaciers
were generally reduced but at different rates. Glaciers reached maximum areal snow coverage in
winter and pre-monsoon seasons and minimum areal snow coverage in monsoon seasons, with
the lowest snow-covered area occurring in August and September. The snow-covered area on
Passu glacier decreased by 24.50%, 3.15% and 11.25% in the pre-monsoon, monsoon and post-
monsoon seasons, respectively. Similarly, the other three glaciers showed notable decreases in
snow-covered area during the pre- and post-monsoon seasons; however, no clear changes were
observed during monsoon seasons. During pre-monsoon seasons, the eastward-facing glacier lost
comparatively more snow-covered area than the westward-facing glacier. The average seasonal
glacier surface temperature calculated from the Landsat thermal band showed negative
correlations of -0.67, -0.89, -0.75 and -0.77 with the average seasonal snow-covered areas of the
Passu, Mumhil, Trivor and Kunyang glaciers, respectively, during pre-monsoon seasons.
Similarly, the air temperature collected from a nearby meteorological station showed an
increasing trend, indicating that the snow-covered area reduction in the region was largely due to
climate warming.

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Agriculture, Forestry & Land Use
Agriculture accounts for 19.5 percent of Pakistan’s GDP, employs 42.3 percent of national labor
force, and provides raw material for key manufacturing and service industries. It plays a central
role in national development, food security, and poverty reduction, and is highly vulnerable to
climate change impacts.
The program seeks to address the major challenges of climate adaptation and mitigation, food
production, food security and sustainability of agroecosystems. The main methodology is the
development and testing of simulation models under a system analysis approach. A central
objective is to assist national planners in developing and incorporating suitable strategies in
national development plans.
 Assessment of the impacts of projected climate changes on productivity of key agricultural
crops in different climatic zones of the country using Crop Growth Simulation Models;
 Assessment of climate change impacts on the productivity of forestry, grasslands, rangelands
and fragile ecosystems, e.g., coastal areas, mountainous regions, wetlands and arid areas;
 Assessment of climate change impacts on land degradation and deforestation;
 Analysis of changes in insect-pest infestation dynamics due to climate change;
 Analysis of food security in the face of future climate change and especially reduced
availability of irrigation water;
 Assessment of climate change impacts on livestock;
 Adaptation measures to counter negative impacts of climate change on agriculture, livestock
and forestry;
 Assessment and planning studies at the nexus of water, food and energy security;
 Updating of information on GHG emissions from agriculture, forestry, and land use sectors
in Pakistan and analyzing the prospects of climate smart agriculture.
Taskforce on Climate Change
Keeping in view the threats of climate change to the socioeconomics of Pakistan, a Taskforce on
climate change was established  by Planning commission of Pakistan in 2008 with a view to
take stock of country’s situation in relation to climate change; to contribute to the formulation of
a climate change policy that would assist the government in achieving sustained economic
growth by appropriately addressing climate change threats so as to ensure water security, food
security and energy security of the country; and to recommend policy measures for promoting
large scale Adaptation and Mitigation efforts, raising awareness of various stakeholders; and
enhancing the capacities of relevant national institutions.
Nationally Determined Contributions
In June 2016, a study regarding Pakistan’s Intended Nationally Determined Contribution
(INDC), to be submitted to UNFCCC before the start of COP-22, was initiated by Ministry of
Climate Change. In the light of directions by Secretary Ministry of Climate Change. Global
Change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC) was declared as the Secretariat and was assigned to
enter into an MOU with UNEP to undertake this study. A Pak-INDC study project was started on
war-footing basis at GCISC. The TORs of this study, as defined by PM Office were met with

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and the study was completed and submitted to UNFCCC before the start of COP-22 with the
approval of the Government of Pakistan.
The report states that under the desired development concerns, future GHG emissions are set to
grow. A Pakistan being highly vulnerable to extreme climate events is into a state of forced
adaptation. In consideration of projected future emissions and potential for mitigation, Pakistan
offers different options as part of its INDC for emission reduction, subject to the availability of
Finance, Technology Development & Transfer and Capacity Building by the international
community.
INDC document reiterates Pakistan’s commitment and obligations towards the United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change and Paris Agreement, and the objective to limit the
average global temperature increase to 1.5 to 2.0 degrees Centigrade. It will continue to play a
meaningful role in global efforts towards achieving this goal. As explained in the Pak-INDC, a
number of mitigation and adaptation measures and actions are already being undertaken with
domestic resources. These measures and actions can be intensified in coming years with
expected availability of international climate finance, technology development and transfer, and
capacity building.
Pakistan's climate change concerns and vulnerability
Pakistan is rated among the top 10 most effected countries to climate change as per independent
international assessments such as that by German Watch, an NGO based in Germany. Listed
below are the major climate change related concerns of the country and some recent examples of
its vulnerability to climate change related extreme events:
KEY EXTREME EVENTS IN PAST:
Increasing extreme events over the last two decades;
 Devastating super floods in 2010 and 2011 (about 2000 deaths, 20 million people homeless,
$ 10 billion damages in 2010 alone)
 Large scale flooding in 1992, 1997, 2003, 2006, 2012, 2013 and 2014
 Localized cloud burst causing urban flooding of Lahore (1996), Islamabad (2001) and
Karachi (2009)
 History's worst drought during 1999 - 2002; droughts in Thar area of Sindh and Cholistan
area of southern Punjab in 2014
 Heat waves during 2003, 2005, 2007 and 2010 (53.7 °C)
 Unprecedented cyclonic in 1999, 2007 and 2010.
FUTURE VULNERABILITY CONCERNS:
 Increased variability of monsoons;
 Projected recession of HKH glaciers threatening IRS Flows
 Increased risks of extreme events (floods, droughts, cyclones, extreme high / low
temperatures etc.);
 Water and heat stressed conditions in arid and semi-arid regions leading to reduced
agricultural productivity;
 Increase in deforestation; loss of biodiversity

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 Increased intrusion of saline water in the Indus delta due to sea level rise; risk to mangroves
and breeding grounds of fish
 Health risks
CAPACITY BUILDING & AWARENESS RAISING
Capacity building
A core objective of the GCISC is to undertake all measures to accelerate research work
necessary for the study of climate change and its impacts, including through the building of the
technical and institutional capacity of national and provincial climate research institutions. To
this end, the Centre organizes national and regional level advanced training workshops with the
help of international experts, provides opportunities to national climate researchers for training
within and outside Pakistan, and supports ongoing MS and PhD programs in various national
universities working on climate related topics. In recent years, training activities have been
undertaken in the following areas:
o Regional Climate System Modeling
o Crop Simulation Modeling
o Watershed Modeling
o Downscaling of Climate Scenarios
o Analysis of Climate Extremes
o Food and Water Security
Awareness Rising
The GCISC Act 2013 mandates the Centre with the task of generating ‘’public awareness of the
phenomenon of climate change and its impacts’’. To this end, GCISC staff and officials have
undertaken a range of activities including:
 Participation in more than 60 roundtable discussions, panel discussions and consultation
meetings organized by civil society organizations
 Participation in climate-related TV programs on PTV, GEO, SAMAA, CNBC and Value TV
and other channels
 Participation in climate-related radio programs at Radio Pakistan and BBC
 Participation in national and international conferences, workshops or seminars
 Circulating a weekly news digest of information related to climate change to an extensive
network of stakeholders
 Organizing a weekly lecture on climate related subject
 Organizing a national workshop on climate change