PRESENTATION

1. Business risks in mining & metals 2014-15
Business Council of Mongolia
September 2014

2. Page 2 Top ten business risks for mining and metals 2014/15
Business risks in mining and metals 2014-15
1
Productivity improvement
2
Capital dilemmas
3
Social license to operate
4
Resource nationalism
5
Capital projects
6
Price & currency volatility
7
Infrastructure access
8
Sharing the benefits
9
Balancing talent needs
10
Access to water and energy

3. Page 3 Top ten business risks for mining and metals 2014/15
Business risks in mining and metals 2014-15
Up from 2013 Same as 2013Down from 2013

4. Page 4 Top ten business risks for mining and metals 2014/15
Productivity improvement
And yet this has been in an environment of:
• Ongoing improvements in equipment, efficiency and reliability
• Significant investment in the sector by OEMs
• Engineering and technological advancements
1
Focus on production growth at any cost meant diminished focus on productivity which has been on the decline since 2000
Underlying reasons
• Significant gaps in skills
• Labour costs exceed the rate of inflation
• Insufficient knowledge of operating in a
cost-constrained environment
• Ineffective portfolio management
• Issues with capital allocation
• Poor project execution
• Slow pace of innovation in mining technology
• Lack of substitution of capital for labour

5. Page 5 Top ten business risks for mining and metals 2014/15
Examples
• Gradual reductions of manpower at operating mining companies, and many mining services companies
• Many workers retaining employment have been placed on temporary “slowdown”
• Moves to bring mineral processing in-country
• Construction of better (non-dirt/desert) roads
The future
• Miners have been dealing with the issue by implementing cost-cutting solutions. A narrow focus on point solutions or continuous improvement will not
close the gap and could even be counter-productive.
• Real gains will only be achieved when a step change in infrastructure availability occurs (i.e. moving transport logistics from trucks to trains).
Mongolia – Examples of productivity improvement initiatives1

6. Page 6 Top ten business risks for mining and metals 2014/15
Capital management1 Capital optimization Capital
growth
Improving financial strength and flexibility Holistic, returns-focused approach to the
portfolio
Disciplined,
strategic growth
• Gearing levels reducing
• High cost operations closed
• Improved financing terms
• Improved cash flow coverage
• Priorities and investment criteria communicated
• Disposals underway/completed/
on hold
• Productivity gains
• Tightening of investment appraisal
• Innovation
Mid-tiers
What next?
Majors
2a Capital allocation: progress made along a journey of capital transformation
2 3

7. Page 7 Top ten business risks for mining and metals 2014/15
Explorers:
capital crisis
14%
Decline in q-o-q junior equity
proceeds in 1Q14
$0.5m
Amount raised by nearly half
of 1Q14 junior issues
38%
Fall in iron ore price from
12m high
31:9
Ratio of negative to
positive/neutral ratings actions
over 1H 2014*
Mid-tiers: persistent
credit risk for some
14%
Increase in y-o-y EBITDA
$6b
Approx. value
of completed divestments
in 2013
Majors:
internal capital
Capital access: fortunes are diverging as the “wealth gap” widens2b

8. Page 8 Top ten business risks for mining and metals 2014/15
With little prospect in sight of a broad-based recovery in the availability of risk capital to the junior
sector, and with commodity price volatility remaining a persistent credit risk, small and mid-tier companies must:
• Remain focused on cost and capital management
• Be knowledgeable about the full range of financing options and providers, along with the short-term and long-term risks and costs attached to each
• Ensure awareness of capital market conditions in order to capture transient windows of opportunity
• Explore prospects for joint ventures and strategic partnerships – with suppliers, investors, offtakers and other mining companies
• Demonstrate a unique investment proposition – management expertise, project quality, optionality
• Be realistic about funding costs
Mongolia – Capital allocation and access –
Mitigation, knowledge and preparedness is key
2

9. Page 9 Top ten business risks for mining and metals 2014/15
Social license to operate
• A dynamic range of stakeholders with growing demands
• Communities are forming allegiances increasing their negotiating
power
• Utilizing social media spreads anti-mining sentiment and builds
support
• Strength of stakeholders can stop projects, not just delay
• Attitudes changing quickly
3
Local
communities
NGOs &
Activists
Employees
SuppliersInvestorsCustomers
Digital
Communities
Regulatory
bodies
Governments

10. Page 10 Top ten business risks for mining and metals 2014/15
Resource nationalism trends4
Mandated beneficiation
Indonesia, South Africa and Zimbabwe
Use it or lose it
Jamaica, Indonesia, Bolivia
State ownership
South Africa
SeekingTrends
Higher value add
Higher employment
Earlier or
uninterrupted cashflow
More participation in upside

11. Page 11 Top ten business risks for mining and metals 2014/15
Mongolia - Social license to operate and resource nationalism
Examples – Social licence to operate
• Denial of access by local groups to exploration sites
• Claims of uranium contamination
• Claims of dust pollution impacting livestock
• Significant environmental protests in Ulaanbaatar
• Public perception of the impacts of ninja mining on the legitimate mining community
Examples – Resource nationalism
• The Mongolian Government has moved to reduce the perception of this as a major country risk through the following:
• Amendments to the legal and regulatory environment
• Effective reductions to gold and coal royalty tax regimes
• Changes to the exploration licencing framework and correcting previous issues
• This risk will remain to be considered significant until changes can be demonstrated to have been implemented, and have operated in a stable manner
for a period of time
3/4

12. Page 12 Top ten business risks for mining and metals 2014/15
Why efficient capital project execution is more crucial than ever
Global mining investment pipeline (US$b)
465
562
676
735
791
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
A record US$791b of investment is in the pipeline for delivery – highest
ever
69% are facing cost overruns 50% are reporting schedule delays
EY’s research shows that the majority of these projects are facing delays
and/or cost escalations…
5
• Market pressure to better deliver on existing projects
• Need to better plan next wave of projects to avoid failure

13. Page 13 Top ten business risks for mining and metals 2014/15
Mongolia – Capital project execution
Our research has shown the following key factors causing project delays and overruns:
• Project management issues
• Stakeholders’ conflicts
• Resource constraints
• Lack of supporting infrastructure
• Regulatory policy-related challenges
• Unfavourable external environment
All of these factors have been experienced in Mongolia.
5

14. Page 14 Top ten business risks for mining and metals 2014/15
Imbalance in the demand/supply equilibrium has led to higher volatility in commodity prices
Source: EY Analysis; Thomson Datastream
Differential impact of price volatility on commodities
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Gold Oil Copper Platinum Aluminium Iron ore Nickel
Annualized volatility in commodity prices (1H 2014) Driving volatility in the market
• Exiting the supercycle
• Increased regulation
• Divergent central bank policies
• Geopolitical risk
• Provision of credit to traders
• Withdrawal of banks from commodity markets
6
Volatility will continue for years to come and mining and metals companies must learn how to transact and invest in volatility

15. Page 15 Top ten business risks for mining and metals 2014/15
Infrastructure access
• New projects are in areas with low to medium logistics ratings
• Three stakeholder groups – Government, capital providers and mining and metal companies need to work out new infrastructure solutions now
7
Logistics rating
Low
High

16. Page 16 Top ten business risks for mining and metals 2014/15
Declining economic value retained vs rising costs (2011 vs 2013)
Source: EY consolidation of company sustainability reports
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
Operating costs - suppliers, etc Economic value retained Employees Payment to capital providers
(shareholders & interest)
Government Communities
US$m
2011 2013
Examples
Peru – 225 social conflicts in May 2014 – 66.2% of those related to mining and hydrocarbon projects
Three largest platinum miners have lost more than US$2b in combined revenue as result of strikes in South Africa
Sharing the benefits – managing divergent stakeholders
8

17. Page 17 Top ten business risks for mining and metals 2014/15
Balancing talent needs
9
Short-term relief from skills shortage due to cyclical reduction in workforce in 2013/14
• May be difficult to rehire skilled workers in the future
• Sector is unattractive to new graduates and over 50% leave in the first five years of employment
• Attrition increases to above 70% in 10 years of employment
Structural skills shortage increasing
• Wages increasing over inflation in emerging markets are driving increased substitution of capital for labour. This is creating demand for more skilled
labour.
Real labour cost
• Underlying issues of skills shortages remain

18. Page 18 Top ten business risks for mining and metals 2014/15
Water and energy risk to increase
1 Rising costs
• Global energy prices have leapt 260% since 2000
• 250% increase of expenditure on water infrastructure between 2009-13.
2 Unreliable energy in frontier markets
• Uncertain power prices
• Unreliable power and water availability
3
Increasing friction and impact on
social licence
• Competition for scarce resources; potential community backlash
• Poor environmental risk management can lead to erosion of ‘brand equity’
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Tariff increase (%) CPI (%)
South African electricity tariff increases versus
inflation
Source: Eskom1
10

19. Page 19 Top ten business risks for mining and metals 2014/15
Under the radar risks – 11 to 20