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Public Lecture PPT (3.16.2012)


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Russia Outlook: Changes and Challenges After The Presidential Election
Speaker: Nobuo Shimotomai

Published in: News & Politics
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Public Lecture PPT (3.16.2012)

  1. 1. PREFACE Putin won at the election 4th March presidential election Unprecedented meetings and demonstrations for „Russia without Putin‟ Why Tandem failed ? Character and orientation of the protest movement from December to March How Kremlin reacted to these challenges? Future of Political reforms New Agendas of the Putin Ⅱ 2
  2. 2. Ⅰ・FROM PUTIN TO TANDEMPutin revisited, From the First PersonGrandfather was Lenin’s cook, It means that his ancestors were the Old believers, or Russian protestants who were against the state orthodox churchPutin Ⅰas weak President, he won only 53 percent votes.Putin‟s agenda: strengthening the state, horizontal controlState control over strategic resources like oil and gas, after Khodorkovskii incidentPutin from 2004, authoritarian control after Beslan tragedyPragmatism, especially after 2007, when some proposed the third term, Instead invented Tandem system by instituting „technical‟ President D. Medvedev 3
  3. 3. TEN YEARS ACHIEVEMENTS 2002 2012GDP 1282 GDP 2260 bnbn 13000$Per average 2376$ 498bn $Foreign currency reserve36.6 bn 143 mnpopulation 64.3145 mn 1.6Life expectancy of men 58.7 860,00Average pregnancy 0 1.2 Federal level statebureaucrats 600,0 00 4
  4. 4. PUTIN’S POLITICS AND ECONOMYElites; Oligarkh, Siloviki and CivilikiBurden of bureaucracy, irony of strengthening the stateCorruption, Ozero group attacked, though systemicState corporation expanding (Gasprom and Rostekhnologia)Modernization, Military industrial complexSkolkovo and “Sovereign economy” 5
  5. 5. PUTIN AND STATE BUREAUCRATSHow many Russian bureaucrats? 6
  6. 6. Ⅱ・CRISES OF TANDEM Autonomy of D. Medvedev(2010-2011fall) Agenda of Political modernization Was power struggle between Medvedev and Putin existed? Siloviki? Vs. Civiliki? By 2011 the gap was salient. Yurgens and G.Pavlovskii advocates Medvedev’s agendas By May 2011, Putin organizationally set up the National Front along with, or alternative to Edinoross Yaroslavel and Valdai as international supporters, but few support for Medvedev 24th September, Putin decides (By the end of August really) Lybia as demarcation line between P and M,Yurgens 7
  7. 7. Ⅲ・POLITICAL TECHNOLOGY OF PUTINKremlin, the first DeputyCchief ofthe Executive Office as chiefideologue V. SurkovChechen, Alifa bank ‘SoveriegnDemocracy’Dissmised by December 27thV.Bolodin, Saratov politicalscientist, against Ayatskov as thegubernor 8
  8. 8. NEW PERSONS V・ BOLODINSpecialist on electionsEdinoross secretary from 2001The Putin‟s government Chiefsecretary , October 2010„V den vyborakh‟Former position Naryshkin,Peskov, Vaino as close associates 9
  9. 9. V DEN’ VYBORAKH(2007) Gubernator Ayatskov as common enemy for Putin and Volodin Satirical film on how oligarkh controls election by mobilizing campaigner 10
  10. 10. FIRST CIRCLE VICTORY OR FINAL VICTORY?SILOVIKI AND NATIONALISTS LIBERALS WITHIN GOVERNMENTSergei Ivanov D・MedvedevGovorukhin, N Shwarov deputy minisiterMikhalkov, Bodarchuk DvorkovichChemezov and Sechin KudrinPatrushev Surkov?Dugin, Kruginyan and Chubais and othersProkhorov as campaigner 11
  12. 12. ANTI-PUTIN MEETING TURNS INTO CARNIVALSPlotnaya on 4th Rebirth of CivilFebruary society? 13
  15. 15. A . N AV L N Y I 、 L AW Y E R35 AKUNIN, WRITER 16
  16. 16. NEW COMERS S . U D A LT S O V P R O K H R O V, O L I G A R C K 17
  17. 17. Ⅳ・THE CONSTITUTIONALREFORM, END OF ONE DOMINANTPARTY SYSTEM THE FALL OF THE NEW OPPOSITIONISTS EDINOROSS POSSIBLE?EdinoRoss as Russian LDP Ideologicalsystem? gap , liberal, national and leftistsPopov and Migranyan  New law on the PartyPutin against the Edinoross Club like 4th Nov.The constitution change by Kremlin invites part ofMedvedev oppositionists(systemic and part-more authoritarian, American of systemic)model? Kudrin, former finance Minister-Or Parliamentary Cabinet also plans to set up the partysystem? 18
  18. 18. POLITICAL REFORMSNew law on the party minimum 500 =new mushroom 68 parties for applicationControl over by Kremlin, BolodinHow to cope with the disintegration of systemic dominant party, Edinoross, into normal horizontal structure. Example of Japanese experience from LDP to the real two party systemOppositionists can unite? Personal party again? Yabloko as personified party still. Ideology left and Right 19
  19. 19. PUTINⅡ AND PERESTROIKAⅡ PREMIER MINISTER SEVEN ARTICLES BY PUTIN Putin’s Seven articles on D・Medvedev decided national, constitutional, corrup tion, foreign, democracy and By 7th March began to investment discuss on the new alignment of the government Core of appointment fixed, Naryshkin, Sechin, Rog Confused image odin, Surkov as deputy A・Kudrin ministers, Prokhorov refused to join Reformists likely to be appointed like Nabiurina 20
  20. 20. PUTINⅡAS TRANSITIONAL PHENOMENA?First, unpopular Putin manage the unpopular policy measure? Hand control over unprecedented crisis?Second, waning Medvedev manage to survive? Otherwise who is likely to replaceThird, political reform and constitutional change possible before, or along with political reforms? Crises may take place spontaneously and destabilise the systemFourth, sub-elites, verticals clans manifest themselves. How to control 21
  21. 21. Ⅴ・FOREIGN POLICY IMPLICATIONS Fall of Medvedev as Atlantic orientation Eurasianism in Ascendance in Izvestya article October 2011 However China not mentioned Putin as anti-Chinese? Next premier Li was declined in February MN article on foreign policy was drafted by foreign Ministry. Who is going to be a foreign minister? Pro US vs,Pro China lobby Why Japan was not mentioned Multipolar and anti-Americanism in disguise Japan as a new partner? 22
  22. 22. CONCLUDING REMARKSThe future of protest movements as civic Society rebirth?Medvedev as transitional Premier Minister?Can the real oppositionist party instituted?But Putin Ⅱ as temporary phenomenon? 23