Dr. Frank Mitloehner - Facts & Fiction: Debunking Myths About Environmental Impact
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Facts & Fiction: Debunking Myths About Environmental Impact - Dr. Frank Mitloehner, Professor and Air Quality Extension Specialist, University of California, Davis, From the 2018 Animal Agriculture Alliance Stakeholders Summit, Protect Your Roots, May 3 - 4, 2018, Arlington, VA, USA. More presentations at https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC9xWTLbiBMQQi8L_WHIWcjA
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Dr. Frank Mitloehner - Facts & Fiction: Debunking Myths About Environmental Impact
- 1. Facts and Fiction: Debunking Myths about Livestock’s Environmental Impact Frank Mitloehner, PhD Professor & Air Quality Specialist Dept Animal Science University of California, Davis
- 2. Follow me on Twitter #GHGGuru
- 8. Johns Hopkins Center for a Livable Future
- 10. “I just realized that animals are just a prehistoric technology; that using animals to produce food is the most destructive technology in use on earth today. The solution… is to use a better technology”
- 11. Facts or Fiction on Livestock and Climate Change? • Livestock produces 18% of all anthropogenic GHG globally • Livestock produces more GHG than transportation • 70% of all agricultural land is used for livestock • Grazing systems produce less GHG than conventional animal production in confinement systems
- 12. “Livestock’s Long Shadow” (FAO, 2006) • “The Livestock sector is a major player, responsible for 18% of GHG emissions measured in CO2e. This is a higher share than transport”
- 13. A reliable way to make people believe in falsehood is frequent repetition, because familiarity is not easily distinguished from truth. Authoritarian institutions and marketers have always known this fact. Daniel Kahneman
- 20. GHG & GWP Global Warming Potential (GWP) of Main GHG Carbon Dioxide, CO2 1 Methane, CH4 25 Nitrous Oxide, N2O 298 CO2 – Carbon Dioxide CH4 – Methane N2O – Nitrous Oxide
- 21. Carbon Dioxide and Carbon Flux
- 22. Source: EPA (2016) National-Level U.S. GHG Inventory
- 25. 4.5 Billion + population of USA in 10 years
- 26. Today and Tomorrow’s Markets
- 27. 27 100200300400500 Indexnumber:1961=100 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Roots and tubers Cereals Meat Milk Eggs Per caput consumption of major food items in developing countries – kg per caput per year (index numbers 1961=100) Consumption is growing rapidly in developing countries Eggs Meat Milk
- 28. 28 Per capita GDP and meat consumption by country, 2005. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 Per capita GDP (US$ PPP) Percapitameatconsumpion(kg/year) USA Japan China Brazil Malaysia Germany Ghana NorwayLithuania ... driven by incomes ...
- 29. Global livestock distribution FAO (2006)
- 30. Distribution of cropland FAO (2006)
- 31. Relationship between total greenhouse gas emissions and milk output per cow 0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 12.00 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 Output per cow, kg FPCM per year kgCO2-eq.perkgFPCM
- 32. FAO (2010)
- 33. Mitigation: interventions to improve productivity Gill et al. (2010)
- 34. US Dairy trends • In 1950 there were 25 million dairy cows in the US, today, there are 9 million. • Even though cow numbers have decreased dramatically (1950 versus 2018), milk production nationally has increased 60 percent. • The carbon footprint of a glass of milk is 2/3 smaller today than it was 70 years ago.
- 35. US Beef trends • In 1970, the US had 140 Million head of beef • By comparison, today there are 90 Million head • In both 1970 and 2010, 24 Million tons of beef were produced
- 36. US Pork Trends
- 37. China Swine Example • China’s five year plan focuses on making farms larger and more efficient • Half of the world’s pigs live in China • 50 million sows w/ 20 piglets born alive • Equals annual production of 1 Billion pigs • Pre-weaning mortality causes 400 Million pigs to never make it to the market • One more pig per sow would mean 1 Million tons of feed saved
- 38. Sustainable Intensification is key • Production intensity enhances biological efficiency • Production intensity and emission intensity are inversely related
- 40. Contact: Frank Mitloehner 2151 Meyer Hall Dept Animal Science UC Davis One Shields Ave CA 95616 Davis (530) 752-3936 fmmitloehner@ucdavis.edu Twitter: GHGGuru
- 41. Presentation to National Academies IOM , Washington DC, July 17, 2013
Editor's Notes
- The ICAS analysis started with more than 70 research sources. From those sources, the researchers selected and analyzed 27 reports and studies about consumer attitudes and behaviors from around the world. Those findings were followed up with a validation study by The Nielsen Company. All told, these studies represent the opinions of more than 97,000 people in 26 countries. Here’s what we found. Source: 1. See Appendix.
- 95% of consumers are what we call food buyers. They choose foods produced by modern agriculture, and are either neutral about or supportive of using efficiency-enhancing technologies to grow food. Sources: 1. See Appendix.
- So, 95% are what we called food buyers. What about the rest? 4% are lifestyle buyers, people who purchase food based largely on lifestyle factors: ethnicity, vegetarianism, or support for organic, local and Fair Trade food suppliers, etc. These are the “money is not an issue” buyers. [Note to presenter: Click mouse at this point to show blended ray of Food Buyer & Lifestyle Buyer] Research shows that the two groups (food buyers and lifestyle buyers) tend to overlap in many areas, depending on personal tastes and preferences. In 2010, 75% of traditional food buyers in the United States also routinely bought organic foods, even if they cost more.1 Barcode scanner data proves this, just as it shows that no U.S. consumers purchase only organic products. Sources: 1. Whole Foods Market. 2010. Online survey conducted by Harris Interactive®. Accessed January 20, 2011. <http://wholefoodsmarket.com/pressroom/blog/2010/08/16/national-survey-shows-organic-foods-now-represent-larger-part-of-total-food-purchases/>. 2. See Appendix.
- Finally, we have a very small percentage left, the “fringe” (1.66% of U.S. consumers, according to research commissioned from The Nielsen Company). These are the people who participate in protests, picketing and rallies to “protect” consumers from modern food-production “threats.” Although these groups are sometimes little more than a few like-minded people skilled at gaining access to the media, they can be effective at influencing local, regional and even national media—and legislation. This is the “We’ll decide what you can eat” group. Their rationales for these limits and bans are typically driven by emotion and fear rather than facts, and their actions ignore the moral right of the hungry to be fed. Instead of helping others, then, the “fringe” are condemning more of the world’s poor and hungry to death. But we can learn from them. To them, these issues are personal. They will move from commitment to conviction to action. We need to do the same. Sources: 1. See Appendix.
- There are a TON of animal rights groups, I only included HSUS
- As already mentioned, the livestock sector is large and growing rapidly. People in developing countries are consuming an increasing share of their diets in the form of meat, milk and eggs. While staple foods such as cereals and roots and tubers have declined as a share of the diet, per person consumption of milk has doubled, meat more than trebled, and eggs quintupled. Per capita consumption: Eggs: 5-fold increase Meat: 3-fold increase Milk: almost double This growth has been particularly striking since the 1980s, driven by rapid economic and social change. Rising incomes, urbanization and commercialization are transforming the demand for livestock products and hence the entire livestock sector.