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Kul Wedsem Presentation

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University of Amsterdam and University College London
University of Amsterdam and University College London
TechnologyEducation
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Probabilistic Squirrels : A Novel Defence of Twofold Causality Federica Russo [email_address] Centre de Philosophie des Sciences UCL
Overview ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Suppes’ Probabilistic Theory ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Is Suppes’ Theory Adequate? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
The Golf Environment: Improbable Consequences ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
The Golf Environment: Negative Causes ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Probabilistic Squirrels save PT, seemingly ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Bayesian squirrels reveal a fallacy
Suppes’: causal relations among quantitative properties ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Quantitative Barometric Changes ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Quantitative Probabilistic Squirrels ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Quantitative Squirrels are negative causes ,[object Object],Squirrel –Y- Cup – X- 1 0 Tot 1 .10 .80 .90 0 .05 .05 .10 Tot .15 .85 1
The probability of a birdie given the squirrel’s kick does exist
Still, do you want the squirrel to be a token positive cause?
Token probability trajectories face two problems: ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Sketch of a solution ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
To sum up … ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],ACQUITTED!

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Kul Wedsem Presentation

  • 1. Probabilistic Squirrels : A Novel Defence of Twofold Causality Federica Russo [email_address] Centre de Philosophie des Sciences UCL
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  • 13. The probability of a birdie given the squirrel’s kick does exist
  • 14. Still, do you want the squirrel to be a token positive cause?
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