HUSO2018- UNIVERSITY OF TORONTO

1. Determinants of Electoral Results: a Multilevel Approach to
Regional Heterogeneity
Priscila Casari
Federal University of Goias
pricasari@gmail.com
Rafael Terra de Menezes
Federal University of Brasilia
Brazil

2. ABSTRACT
The place of residence of voters is admittedly a determining factor of the
electoral results. This is caused by regional heterogeneities that can be due
to different characteristics of voters, as well as to distinct public service
supply. In Brazil, voters are divided into zones according to their place of
residence and voting is compulsory. The obligation to vote creates a
database with no selection bias and differentiates this article from previous
studies conducted in countries where voting is optional. Our objective is to
evaluate the importance of regional heterogeneity in determining the result
of the mayoral election in the city of Sao Paulo in 2016. Sao Paulo is the
largest Brazilian city, with approximately nine million voters divided into fifty-
eight electoral zones. The data used were provided by the Brazilian
Supreme Electoral Court. We present descriptive statistics and estimate
linear and multilevel regression models. The results show that there are
regional heterogeneities, even after controlling for the voters' gender, age,
schooling and marital status.
Keywords: Elections; Voters; Regions; Multilevel

3. INTRODUCTION

Objective: evaluate the importance of regional heterogeneity in
determining the result of the mayoral election in the city of Sao Paulo
(Brazil) in 2016

In general, authors use expenditures as an explanatory variable, and
this implies the hypothesis that these expenses benefit voters in a
uniform way. However, it is understood that the location of government
services (schools, health clinics, public transportation, police stations,
etc.) is a determining factor of welfare.

This article seeks to contribute to the literature by disaggregating the
data into electoral zones, which allows the identification of diverse
spatial heterogeneities that affect voters' well-being and preferences.

4. DATA AND METHOD
Data:

Socioeconomic profile of voters - Brazilian Supreme Electoral Court (TSE)

Georeferenced information on the location of public services - the City of
São Paulo

Geographical boundaries of the municipality - Brazilian Institute of
Geography and Statistics (IBGE).

Descriptive statistics

Multilevel regression

5. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
The socioeconomic profile of the voters reveals the characteristics of the
median voter in the city of Sao Paulo.

The majority of voters are women (53.86%).

Additionally, 62.82% of voters are single.

In relation to age, the range with the highest relative participation is
between 45 and 59 years old, with 24.99% of the population of voters.

Among schooling levels, we observed the highest concentration of voters
with a high school (45.17%).

6. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

Map 1: shows the voting sites in the city of Sao Paulo

Maps 2 through 5: show that there is a spatial concentration of public
services.

The selected public services were: Bus Terminals and Subway Stations;
Emergency Rooms, Public Colleges, and Police Stations.

In general, we observe that there is a smaller supply of public services in
the extreme south, east and north of the city, where people with lower
income reside.

7. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
Map 1 - Voting Sites
Source: Elaborated by the authors (2018)

8. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
Map 2 – Bus Terminals and Subway Stations
Source: Elaborated by the authors (2018)

9. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
Map 3 – Emergency Rooms
Source: Elaborated by the authors (2018)

10. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
Map 4 – Public Colleges
Source: Elaborated by the authors (2018)

11. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
Map 5 – Police Stations
Source: Elaborated by the authors (2018)

12. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
Table 1 – Multilevel Regression Model Results
Observations: 25,040; Groups: 58
* Significant at 1% level; **Significant at 5% level
Source: elaborated by the authors (2018)
Variables Coeficient Standard Errors
Male Gender -0.0081071 0.0039856 **
Marital Status Married -0.1061283 0.0066155 *
Marital Status Divorced or Widow -0.4510113 0.0135147 *
Age between 25 and 34 years old 0.1198078 0.0025864 *
Age between 35 and 44 years old 0.2634951 0.003698 *
Age between 45 and 59 years old 0.3124644 0.0043403 *
Age higher igual or than 60 0.5784827 0.0048682 *
Schooling: Elementary School 0.1534451 0.0110573 *
Schooling: High School 0.4887274 0.0086272 *
Schooling: Higher Education 0.6513214 0.0089921 *
Constant -0.1377379 0.0115634 *
Random Effect Parameter Estimate Standard Errors
Constant 0.0520155 0.0048418
Residual 0.0426032 0.0001906

13. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
The results of the regression show that the candidate of the Brazilian Social
Democracy Party benefits from increases in the proportions of women and
singles, greater age and schooling of voters.

Variance between-electoral-zones was 0.0520

Within-electoral-zone and between-ballots variance was 0.0426

54.97% of the variance in voting is due to differences between electoral
zones.

14. CONCLUSIONS

Although the socioeconomic profile of the voters is relevant, the place of
residence accounts for more half of the variance in voting.

The regional context shows essential to analyze electoral attitudes and
behaviour.

We recommend that future public policies focus on reducing regional
heterogeneity.

Future research can analyze other cities, states, and countries. It is also
interesting to monitor the supply of services and voters preferences
during the next mayoral elections in Sao Paulo.

15. Thank you!
Corresponding author:

Priscila Casari

pricasari@gmail.com

www.linkedin.com/in/pricasari