2. The reason of choosing the topic on the aspect
of timeliness and the situation of the current
world
The approval rates of Scottish National Party
has a linear correlation with the rate of
supporting the independence of Scotland
The main bias of this research on the political
system of the country
KEY POINTS
3. The Scottish Independent Referendum took place
this year, this research is based on the timeliness
The political system in United Kingdom is different
from other countries on the formation of the country,
and this referendum can be a test for this kind of
system
The Scottish Independent Referendum can be seen
as a better way for ethnic self-determination rather
than launching conflicts or wars
The local elections can be used to represent the
political system of Britain
BACKGROUND
4. Is there any relationship between the result of the referendum
and result of the historical elections by local council areas
based on the conditions of different areas?
Positive moderate or strong linear regressions
Scottish National Party is a nationalist party that support the
independence of Scotland, which means that the approval
rate of this party may reflect the supporting rate of Scottish
independence and the national cohesion of Scottish people
if two elections are closer on the aspect of time, the results
will also be more similar to each other because the ideas of
people are always continuous
QUESTION AND HYPOTHESIS
7. SEATS OF SCOTTISH PARLIAMENT
Yellow – Scottish National Party (64/129) After the
Election in 2012, which means that the approval
rate of Scottish National Party is close to
64/129=49.6%, while according to the Scottish
Election Board, the rate of ballots for the
independence of Scotland is
1617989/3623344=44.7%
8. ANALYSIS
From the box plots at
the left, there are two
outliers each in the
ratios between the
approval rates of SNP
in 2007 and 2012 and
the rate of ballots for
the independence of
Scotland
Without considering
the time span, the type
of line of best-fits in
the scatter plot graphs
below are positive
moderated
9. The relationship between the approval rates of
SNP and the rate of ballots for the independence
of Scotland is positive moderated linear
correlation with the consideration of time span
Along with the expanding of the time span, the
correlation is on the trend of becoming weak
The decisions of the public can be fully reflected
by the elections, and this system can be
advocated to avoid conflicts.
RESULT
10. Bias Analysis:
The Scottish political system reflects that there are several
selections on the votes of local elections and there were only
2 choices during the Scottish Independent Referendum
The Scottish National Party did not take part in the local
elections of Shetland Islands and Orkney Islands in 2007, so
the statistics related to them are useless
Improvement
Based on the differences of probabilities on choosing a
selection in those elections, the ratio calculations can be
alternated, and at the same time, useless statistics should be
removed.
REFLECTION
