1. UNIVERSITATEA “POLITEHNICA” DIN TIMISOARA
FACULTATEA DE AUTOMATICA SI CALCULATOARE
Risk analysis and management
Resource#1
Stefan Georgiu , An 1 AES
TIMIŞOARA 2014
2. Risk Analysis
Risk-benefit analysis is the comparison of the risk of a situation to its
related benefits. Exposure to personal risk is recognized as a normal aspect of
everyday life. We accept a certain level of risk in our lives as necessary to achieve
certain benefits. In most of these risks we feel as though we have some sort of
control over the situation. For example, driving an automobile is a risk most people
take daily. "The controlling factor appears to be their perception of their individual
ability to manage the risk-creating situation." Analyzing the risk of a situation is,
however, very dependent on the individual doing the analysis. When individuals
are exposed to involuntary risk, risk which they have no control, they make risk
aversion their primary goal. Under these circumstances individuals require the
probabilty of risk to be as much as one thousand times smaller then for the same
situation under their perceived control.
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3. Evaluations of future risk
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Real future risk as disclosed by the fully matured future circumstances when
they develop.
•
Statistical risk, as determined by currently available data, as measured
actuarially for insurance premiums.
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Projected risk, as analytically based on system models structured from
historical studies.
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Perceived risk, as intuitively seen by individuals.
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4. Risk Communication
Risk communication involves communicating risks that are involved in a
situation. People are generally apathetic when it comes to risks, and it is difficult to
get them concerned.
Assumptions about risk communication:
One-way communication, with an indentifiable audience to be warned and a
source to do the warning.
The source knows more about the risk than the audience.
The audience's interests are at heart.
The source's recommendations are based on real information, not values or
preferences.
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5. Risk Communication
Risk communication, as described above, does not always follow these
assumptions. Therefore, risk communication should be multi-directional rather than
one-directional. Industry, government, and the media should talk less and listen
more. Using a multi-directional approach, "...it is easier to design effective
messages if the source pays attention to what the prospective audience thinks and
feels."
Another approach, although not multi-directional, is to measure success by
what the audience knows and not by what the audience decides. Just by letting
people know puts pressure on the companies to keep risk below a certain point.
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6. Risk Management
Risk management is the consideration of social, economical and political
factors in the decision-making process of controlling risks. The basic task of a risk
manager is to take a risk assessment and integrate it with the best available
sociological, economical and political information.
In reality, the reliability of the data on which risk and cost calcualtions are
based on often leads risk management to cross the line of risk assessment.
Theoretically, however, a risk assessor should stick to his or her scientific
approach and present the reliable and objective information to the risk manager
while the risk manager should take the assessment at its face value for integrating
other factors and making decisions.
Source : http://capita.wustl.edu/ME567_Informatics/concepts/riskben.html
