1. NFL Predictions: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at San Francisco 49ers
As we get into the second half of the 2010 season, NFL predictions become more difficult. This may seem
counterintuitive, since the increase of in-season data should make the prediction process easier, but in
actuality the increase in information makes it more difficult to distinguish important data from meaningless
stats. One of the more common pitfalls is putting too much significance on a team’s win/loss record, and
ignoring in the process the context of those wins and losses. In terms of <a
href="http://superpredictors.com">NFL Predictions</a>, it’s paramount that one dig deeper as the season
progresses.
On paper, this week’s matchup between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-3) and the San
Francisco 49ers (3-6) appears lopsided, but a closer look reveals some startling
similarities. For starters, looking at the final margin of victory, each team has been
involved with a lot of close contests. For the Niners, 4 of their 6 losses have come by a
total of 11 points, while for the Bucs, 4 of their 6 wins have come by a total of 10 points.
So while both teams are very young, and susceptible to making mistakes of inexperience,
it seems like the Bucs have a knack for finishing close games while the Niners have a
knack of coming up just a little short.
What’s caused two young, inexperienced teams with roughly the same talent level to
have two vastly different seasons to date? Well, in retrospect it’s easy to see why—
coaching. While the Bucs have been on the same page since Day 1 with head coach
Raheem Morris mentioned prominently as a Coach of the Year candidate, the Niners
have had one mini-drama after another, leading 3 players to quit the team, the offensive
coordinator to be fired, and the starting quarterback to be benched, all amongst rumblings
that head coach Mike Singletary is simply unqualified to be an NFL coach.
That said, Singletary and the Niners seem like they may have righted the ship mid-
season. The promotion of Mike Johnson to offensive coordinator and former Heisman
winner Troy Smith to starting QB has energized the offense and brought a renewed sense
of confidence and swagger amongst playmakers such as Frank Gore, Vernon Davis, and
Michael Crabtree, culminating in wins in 3 of their last 4 games.
Prediction: 49er QB Troy Smith is 2-0 since taking over as the starter, and the offense
had more big plays in last 2 weeks than it had in first 7 games combined. Given his lack
of snaps and overall playing time in the NFL, Tampa Bay will have little game film to
game plan against, and may get caught off guard against somebody who shown a flair for
turning broken plays into big gains. With starting tackle Joe Staley out with a broken leg,
the Bucs have an opening to put pressure on the inexperienced Smith, though Tampa has
only managed 8 sacks through 9 games. Even if they can’t sack Smith, Tampa has shown
quite a knack for forcing interceptions, and could be successful forcing Smith into
mistakes As a team that wants to establish the run and protect a young QB, the Niners
should have an easy time establishing a ground game against the 31st
ranked run defense
in the NFL, especially if they continue to mix up the run and pass as well as they have
recently. On the other side of the ball, Tampa Bay will attempt to attack the Niners over
the air, and will look to take advantage of TE Kellen Winslow against San Francisco’s
young safeties, a group that has shown a susceptibility to give up big plays over the top.
While the Bucs have a good stable of young, tough runners, look for the 49ers to stop the
run, as they’ve limited teams to a 93 yds/game in the last 4 weeks. 49ers win 23-20 on a
late FG.

2. Summary :
As we get into the second half of the 2010 season, NFL predictions become more
difficult. This may seem counterintuitive, since the increase of in-season data should
make the prediction process easier, but in actuality the increase in information makes it
more difficult to distinguish important data from meaningless stats.
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