Top Secrets NFL
No. 1 ranked football handicapper unveils 2013
NFL early watchlist
NFL Vegas Odds
As we continue to preach, offseason
research is of enormous consequence to
sports handicapping, but one must be more
than adaptable enough to adjust as the
season progresses to be a sports betting
With that in mind, here are some early
probable edges we have on our radar
screen, yet subject to change as the facts
NFL Betting Fact
Quarterbacks facing burden of higher
expectations: Cam Newton proved to be the
rule rather than the exception. Last year he
demonstrated to be a great go-against
following up a splendid debut.
One of our Golden Rules of Gambling is that it is
easier to be the hunter than the hunted.
Quarterbacks who we anticipate to have
negative spread records based on that theory:
Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III (though his injury
recovery warrants more monitoring), Colin
Kaepernick, and Russell Wilson.
2013 Philadelphia Eagles
Eagles will struggle early, but may improve
rapidly: One who has often puts my neck out on
the line, yet I did use the qualifier “may
improve.” This is a great example of my how my
position must evolve with the evidence.
Whether or not Philadelphia coach Chip Kelly
will make a successful transition to the NFL is
highly debatable. Under the best possible
scenario, there will be growing pains. This is
exacerbated by the fact he is pass happy and
his quarterback situation is highly questionable.
The secondary is revamped and his front seven
stars are better suited for a 4-3 rather than the 3-
4 Kelly will likely utilize.
Offshore Betting Tip
Matt Barkley will take over as starting QB
before the year is out. Expect for Philly to
struggle early, lose value, and then play
their best football of the year against the
scores and odds when the undervalued
signal caller takes over.
Buffalo Bills Preview
Fall in and out of love with Buffalo: The Bills
are certainly not the only team breaking in a
new coaching staff. However, the roster and
scheme upheaval is as much as any team in
Anticipate them to take the preseason very
seriously, build up false expectations, and
fall flat once the regular season starts.
Green Bay Packers
Green Bay will run a lot in preseason: We
preach time and time again, handicapping
totals is much more about pace than
offense and defensive competence. The
Packers are set at QB, but have a deep
group of RBs battling for roster spots.
Expect a lot more ball control than usual
from them in the exhibition games.
Vegas NFL Tips
False hope in Arizona: Sure Carson Palmer is the
best QB the Cardinals have had since Kurt
Warner retired, but that is like being the tallest
midget in the circus. Like Jeff George, Palmer
can keep changing his uniform, yet he still
remains grossly overrated.
With little talent at RB, look for their offensive line
to get scapegoated for a terrible offense.
However, Larry Fitzgerald is without question the
one bright spot. Watch for Arizona to be feast or
famine. They will get points off the big play, but
will be grossly inconsistent, continually putting
the defense back on the field knows the best
Titans worst or first: Tennessee running back Chris
Johnson was materializing to be the poster child
of how NFL running backs shelf lives are getting
shorter thanks to the speed and physicality of
the game. Frankly he astonished us finding the
fountain of youth late in the season.
His QB Jake Locker has Aaron Rogers-like tools,
but has come up short in his first two years.
Johnson and Locker have such a high upside
and downside. I will be paying very close
attention to my trusted sources in Tennessee to
monitor the progress of those two significant
Betting against Pittsburgh like ‘”steeling”: The
Steelers are alleged to be one of the most well
run in sports. Yet, QB Ben Roethlisberger is on a
steep decline and the defense has three key
players who are at least 32 years or older: Troy
Polamalu, Ike Taylor, and Ryan Clark. Little
depth is on defense. It will be a good year to bet
Barely scratching the surface, the above list
represents a fraction of several pages of bullet
points, with updates in constant progress. Let
the training camps begin.
Vegas Insider Picks
Grandmaster Sports Handicapper Joe Duffy
is working around the clock to assure the
likelihood of this being the best football
betting season ever for pro gamblers.