This Thanksgiving, the author is appreciative of family, friends, health, red Skittles, and the increasing use of statistical analysis in sports. Recent examples in the NFL and college basketball showed how data can be used to make more informed decisions, such as a Patriots coach's call to go for it on 4th down and a study on referee bias. A Giants pitcher won an award based more on advanced stats than traditional metrics like wins. The author hopes this signals greater wisdom and attention to data in evaluating sports.

1. This Thanksgiving, I'm appreciative of a lot of things. Family, friends, my health, red
Skittles, and the increasing use of statistical analysis in sports.
These past few weeks have given us ample examples of how much greater the study of
data and trends is being used to make more intelligent decisions.
It started two weeks ago when New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick decided
to go for it on fourth-and-two instead of punting from his own 29-yard line up six points
to Indianapolis with about two minutes to play. The rest is history now: the completed
pass is spotted short of the first down marker, Peyton Manning takes his offense down
the field in less than 100 seconds for a winning touchdown, and Belichick had one of the
more awkward post-game press conferences ever.
At first I, like most of the free world, was shocked. How can you leave Manning with
great field position? Don't you know how dangerous a decision that is? Have you lost
your marbles?
Full disclosure: I really don't like the Patriots, but I feel the need to defend those who I
deem to have been wronged, sometimes going against my personal feelings.
Then I started doing some research and my Twitter feed took me over to a wonderful
website called "The Fifth Down Blog" at the NYTimes.com. NFL statistical analyst Brian
Burke put forth the rational that, using statistics compiled over many seasons, the
decision by Belichick to go for it actually yielded a greater chance for the Pats to win
then if they had punted the ball away. It was a beautiful thing, using reasoned, intelligent
arguments based on empirical data instead of seeing former Patriots defensive players
yell on television how this was the worst decision ever by anyone and had no evidence
to back that up other than it's the conventional wisdom.
I saw this in action Friday night in Wilmington, when two of the biggest plays in the
game for Lumberton came when head coach Mike Brill decided to go for it on fourth-
and-more-than-one, both resulting in touchdowns for the Pirates that put the game
away.
Most coaches seem to be too afraid of going for it on fourth down and looking like a fool
instead of playing the percentages that show if you have a good offense, you are better
off going for it once inside the opponent's 40-yard line than punting. Just like in poker, if
you keep making the play that leads to a higher probability of success, in the long run
you will be fine and you can't be worried about the aftermath when occasionally it
doesn't work out.
Meanwhile, in the realm of college basketball, a study was released by college
professors that used data gathered during the 2004-05 season to show that referees are
more likely to call fouls for the home team, especially if the home team through part of
the game had more fouls go against them.
Now, it does not prove that referees on a whole are biased for or against any one
school, but simply shows that human psychology makes it very difficult for a creature
that has emotions to always make calls devoid of any of that emotion. But at least now
we have the numbers to understand why many fans yell in frustration every game, but
those same fans should be more conscious of the difficulty in refereeing a basketball
game and keep their comments to a minimum.
Finally, Giants pitcher Tim Lincecum won the National League Cy Young award earlier
this week, and you could hear the howls from a mile a way. "But Lincecum only had 15
wins! Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter both had more! Who voted for Javier
Vazquez? This is blasphemy!'
Yes, Carpenter also had a better earned run average than the other two, but Lincecum
was above his St. Louis peers in nearly every other way, especially in statistics that
focus solely on the pitcher. Lincecum lead the two Cardinals hurlers in strikeouts per
nine innings, shutouts, complete games, strikeout to walk ratio and the fielding
independent pitching metric, or FIP.
That isn't to say that Carpenter and Wainwright didn't have great seasons and weren't
valuable to their clubs. Nor that pitchers like Atlanta's Javier Vazquez were not

2. deserving of consideration, as Vazquez was worth $29.5 million in 2009, the second
most among National League pitchers. It is good to see though that wins may no longer
be the be-all end-all of Cy Young races.
This could all be an aberration, and next year Derek 'Captain Jetes' Jeter will get the
American League MVP award as more of a lifetime achievement honor, and we will be
right back at square one.
But maybe these are three examples of everyone getting a little bit wiser and paying a
little more attention to their surroundings to make better conclusions about this world
where we live.
I'm just saying that would be something to be thankful for