This document discusses distribution networks and demand forecasting in supply chains. It begins by defining distribution as the steps to move a product from suppliers to customers. It then discusses how distribution network design impacts costs and customer service. The document outlines different types of distribution networks like direct shipping, distributor storage, and retail storage networks. It also discusses factors influencing demand forecasts like past demand, lead times, marketing, and competitors. Finally, it summarizes qualitative and quantitative forecasting techniques as well as collaboration best practices for building forecasts.
6. Distribution : the steps taken to move and store a
product from the supplier stage to the customer
stage in a supply chain
Distribution directly affects cost and the
customer experience and therefore drives
profitability
Choice of distribution network can achieve
supply chain objectives from low cost to high
responsiveness
Examples: Wal-Mart, Dell, Proctor & Gamble,
Grainger
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7. Distribution network performance
evaluated along two dimensions at the
highest level:
• Customer needs that are met
• Cost of meeting customer needs
Distribution network design options must
therefore be compared according to their
impact on customer service and the cost
to provide this level of service
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8. Elements of customer service influenced by
network structure:
Response time
Product variety
Product availability
Customer experience
Time to market
Order visibility
Return ability
Supply chain costs affected by network structure:
Inventories
Transportation
Facilities and handling
Information
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9. Response time and Number of
Facilities
Number of
Facilities
Response Time
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10. Inventory Costs and Number
of Facilities
Inventory
Costs
Number of facilities
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11. Transportation Costs and Number
of Facilities
Transportation
Costs
Number of facilities
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12. Facility Costs and Number of
Facilities
Facility
Costs
Number of facilities
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13. Response Time
Variation in Logistics Costs and Response
Time with Number of Facilities
Number of Facilities
Total Logistics Costs
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14. • Manager make two key decisions when designing
a distribution network.
1. Will the product
be delivered to the
customer location
or picked up from a
preordained site.
2. Will product flow
through an
intermediary ( or
intermediate
location)
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15. Manufacturer Storage with Direct Shipping
Manufacturer Storage with Direct Shipping
and In-Transit Merge
Distributor Storage with Carrier Delivery
Distributor Storage with Last Mile Delivery
Manufacturer or Distributor Storage with
Consumer Pickup
Retail Storage with Consumer Pickup
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17. Distributor Storage with Carrier
Delivery
Factories
Customers
Product Flow
Information Flow
Warehouse Storage by
Distributor/Retailer
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18. Manufacturer Storage with Direct
Shipping and In-Transit Merge Network
Factories
Retailer
Product Flow
Information Flow
In-Transit Merge by
Carrier
Customers
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19. Distributor Storage with Last Mile
Delivery
Factories
Customers
Product Flow
Information Flow
Distributor/Retailer
Warehouse
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20. Manufacturer or Distributor Storage with
Customer Pickup
Factories
Retailer
Pickup Sites
Product Flow
Information Flow
Cross Dock DC
Customer Flow
Customers
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21. Retail Storage with customer pickup
Retailer
Consumers
RetailerRetailer
Distributor
Warehouse
Manufacturers
Distributor
Warehouse
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22. Distribution Networks in Practice
1. The ownership structure of the distribution
network can have as big as an impact as the type
of distribution network
2. The choice of a distribution network has very
long-term consequences
3. Consider whether an exclusive distribution
strategy is advantageous
4. Product, price, commoditization, and criticality
have an impact on the type of distribution system
preferred by customers
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24. The basis for all strategic and planning decisions in
a supply chain
Used for both push and pull processes
Examples:
Production: scheduling, inventory, aggregate
planning
Marketing: sales force
allocation, promotions, new production introduction
Finance: plant/equipment investment, budgetary
planning
Personnel: workforce planning, hiring, layoffs
All of these decisions are interrelated
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25. Hypothetical example of forecasting
Demand for Mercedes E Class
Time
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
Actual demand (past sales)
Predicted demand
We try to predict the
future by looking back
at the past
Predicted
demand
looking
back six
months
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29. A company must be knowledgeable about numerous factors that are
to the demand forecast. These are-
Past demand
Lead time of product replenishment
Planned advertising or marketing effort
State of the economy
Planned price discounts
Action that competitors have taken
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31. Qualitative: primarily subjective; rely on
judgment and opinion
Time Series: use historical demand only
Static
Adaptive
Causal: use the relationship between demand
and some other factor to develop forecast
Simulation:
Imitate consumer choices that give rise to demand
Can combine time series and causal methods
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32. • Collaborate
in building
forecasts
1
• The value of
data depends
on where you
are in the
supply chain
2
• Be sure to
distinguish
between
demand
and sales
3
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