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![Forecasting in AWS - AWS User Group Padova - 2024-02-01
Time Series data
● Target Time Series (TTS)
○ timestamp
○ item_id (articolo, SKU)
○ [ dimensione per cliente ]
○ target_value (valore)
○ [ Festività, Meteo ]
● Related Time Series (RTS)
○ timestamp
○ item_id (articolo, SKU)
○ [ dimensione per cliente ]
○ holiday (valore 0 oppure 1)
○ maximum [ Meteo, Stock, .. ]](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/forecastinginaws-augpadova-240204195348-0dcce4d9/85/Forecasting-in-AWS-2024-02-01-7-320.jpg)
![Forecasting in AWS - AWS User Group Padova - 2024-02-01
Categorical data
● Anagrafica articolo
○ item_id (articolo, SKU)
○ category (caratteri o numeri)
○ [ fino a 10 colonne totali ]
● Geolocalizzazione
○ distribuzione per
■ articolo
■ articolo / cliente
○ da cosa si può partire
■ CAP
■ Nazione [ Festività ]
■ longitudine [ Meteo ]
■ latitudine [ Meteo ]
Distribution
Nominal or Ordinal Categorical Variables](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/forecastinginaws-augpadova-240204195348-0dcce4d9/85/Forecasting-in-AWS-2024-02-01-8-320.jpg)
Uploaded byAlessandra Bilardi
Forecasting in AWS - 2024-02-01
Il documento tratta dell'uso del forecasting in AWS, esplorando diversi algoritmi di machine learning e dati necessari per fare previsioni aziendali efficaci. Vengono evidenziate l'importanza del forecasting per la pianificazione della supply chain, delle risorse e della domanda di vendita al dettaglio, insieme ad esempi di dati temporali e categoriali utilizzabili. Infine, il documento confronta vari servizi AWS per il forecasting basandosi su difficoltà, tempi di esecuzione e costi.
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- 2. Forecasting in AWS- AWS User Group Padova - 2024-02-01 Alessandra Bilardi Data & Automation Specialist alessandra.bilardi@corley.it corley.it
- 3. Forecasting in AWS- AWS User Group Padova - 2024-02-01 SUMMARY Keywords AWS Services Comparison
- 4. Forecasting in AWS- AWS User Group Padova - 2024-02-01 Keywords
- 5. Forecasting in AWS- AWS User Group Padova - 2024-02-01 What is the forecasting ?
- 6. Forecasting in AWS- AWS User Group Padova - 2024-02-01 The importance of the forecasting 1 2 Supply chain planning 3 Resource planning 4 Operational planning Retail demand planning
- 7. Forecasting in AWS- AWS User Group Padova - 2024-02-01 Time Series data ● Target Time Series (TTS) ○ timestamp ○ item_id (articolo, SKU) ○ [ dimensione per cliente ] ○ target_value (valore) ○ [ Festività, Meteo ] ● Related Time Series (RTS) ○ timestamp ○ item_id (articolo, SKU) ○ [ dimensione per cliente ] ○ holiday (valore 0 oppure 1) ○ maximum [ Meteo, Stock, .. ]
- 8. Forecasting in AWS- AWS User Group Padova - 2024-02-01 Categorical data ● Anagrafica articolo ○ item_id (articolo, SKU) ○ category (caratteri o numeri) ○ [ fino a 10 colonne totali ] ● Geolocalizzazione ○ distribuzione per ■ articolo ■ articolo / cliente ○ da cosa si può partire ■ CAP ■ Nazione [ Festività ] ■ longitudine [ Meteo ] ■ latitudine [ Meteo ] Distribution Nominal or Ordinal Categorical Variables
- 9. Forecasting in AWS- AWS User Group Padova - 2024-02-01 Which data can we use to do forecasting ? 1 2 related timeseries (RTS) 3 categorical data (IM) 4 geolocalization (GEO) target timeseries (TTS)
- 10. Forecasting in AWS- AWS User Group Padova - 2024-02-01 Example ● target timeseries (TTS) ● related timeseries (RTS) ● categorical data (IM) ● geolocalization (GEO) reference
- 11. Forecasting in AWS- AWS User Group Padova - 2024-02-01 Example ● target timeseries (TTS) ● related timeseries (RTS) ● categorical data (IM) ● geolocalization (GEO) reference
- 12. Forecasting in AWS- AWS User Group Padova - 2024-02-01 Example ● target timeseries (TTS) ● related timeseries (RTS) ● categorical data (IM) ● geolocalization (GEO) reference
- 13. Forecasting in AWS- AWS User Group Padova - 2024-02-01 Example ● target timeseries (TTS) ● related timeseries (RTS) ● categorical data (IM) ● geolocalization (GEO) reference
- 14. Forecasting in AWS- AWS User Group Padova - 2024-02-01 AWS Services
- 15. Forecasting in AWS- AWS User Group Padova - 2024-02-01 AWS Services reference
- 16. Forecasting in AWS- AWS User Group Padova - 2024-02-01 AWS Services reference
- 17. Forecasting in AWS- AWS User Group Padova - 2024-02-01 AWS Services reference
- 18. Forecasting in AWS- AWS User Group Padova - 2024-02-01 AWS Services reference
- 19. Forecasting in AWS- AWS User Group Padova - 2024-02-01 AWS Services reference
- 20. Forecasting in AWS- AWS User Group Padova - 2024-02-01 AWS Services
- 21. Forecasting in AWS- AWS User Group Padova - 2024-02-01 AWS Services
- 22. Forecasting in AWS- AWS User Group Padova - 2024-02-01 AWS Services Business
- 23. Forecasting in AWS- AWS User Group Padova - 2024-02-01 AWS Services Business Operator
- 24. Forecasting in AWS- AWS User Group Padova - 2024-02-01 AWS Services Business Operator Data Scientist
- 25. Forecasting in AWS- AWS User Group Padova - 2024-02-01 Evaluation reference
- 26. Forecasting in AWS- AWS User Group Padova - 2024-02-01 Evaluation
- 27. Forecasting in AWS- AWS User Group Padova - 2024-02-01 Evaluation
- 28. Forecasting in AWS- AWS User Group Padova - 2024-02-01 Evaluation metrics Metrics Description Notes Limits MAPE Mean Absolute Percentage Error ok < 50%; good < 20%; very good < 10% for dataset without 0 MASE Mean Absolute Scaled Error training / testing values comparison it is unique for each dataset RMSE Root Mean Square Error RMSE / actual average value < 10% it is most sensitive to outliers
- 29. Forecasting in AWS- AWS User Group Padova - 2024-02-01 Comparison
- 30. Forecasting in AWS- AWS User Group Padova - 2024-02-01 Comparison of AWS services for the forecasting Services Difficulty Execution times Costs RMSE SM Canvas 🏖🏖🏖 10 mins $ 2.02 280 Forecast 🏖📚🔧 20 mins + 48 mins $ 11.28 57 SM JumpStart 🤓🔧🔧 5 mins + 28 mins $ 0.41 265 SM Built-in algos 🤓🔧🔧 3 mins + 10 mins $ 0.22 251
- 31. Forecasting in AWS- AWS User Group Padova - 2024-02-01 265
- 32. Forecasting in AWS- AWS User Group Padova - 2024-02-01 280 265
- 33. Forecasting in AWS- AWS User Group Padova - 2024-02-01 280 265 251
- 34. Forecasting in AWS- AWS User Group Padova - 2024-02-01 280 57 265 251
- 35. Forecasting in AWS- AWS User Group Padova - 2024-02-01 Thanks for listening!
- 36. Forecasting in AWS- AWS User Group Padova - 2024-02-01 Amazon Forecast
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- 38. Forecasting in AWS- AWS User Group Padova - 2024-02-01 Features - forecasting
- 39. Forecasting in AWS- AWS User Group Padova - 2024-02-01 Features - scenarios what-if analysis, ‘scenarios’
- 40. Forecasting in AWS- AWS User Group Padova - 2024-02-01 Features - explainability impact scores
- 41. Forecasting in AWS- AWS User Group Padova - 2024-02-01 Pricing $ 2 per 1000 $ 2 per 1000
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