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WPS Enrollment Report
This document provides an enrollment report presented to the School Committee on October 19, 2010. It summarizes actual and projected K-12 enrollments from 1980 to 2020. Key points include: - Elementary enrollment peaked in 2010 and is projected to decline to 1,754 by 2020. - Middle school enrollment is projected to remain steady around 1,120. - High school enrollment is projected to increase slightly to 1,285 by 2020. - Overall K-12 enrollment is projected to decline slightly to 4,797 by 2020 from a high of 4,791 in 2010. - Space implications are that elementary schools will continue to use modular classrooms as needed while monitoring individual school enrollments. The middle school will
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WPS Enrollment Report
- 1. ENROLLMENT REPORT Presented to School Committee October 19, 2010
- 2. ELEMENTARY, MIDDLE SCHOOLand HIGH SCHOOL ENROLLMENTS Actual October 1 Enrollments through 2010 Enrollment Projected October 1 Enrollments through 2020 2500 2250 Actual Enrollment Projected Enrollment 2000 ELEMENTARY ENROLLMENT 1750 1500 HIGH SCHOOL ENROLLMENT 1250 1000 750 MIDDLE SCHOOL ENROLLMENT 500 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 October 1, ---- 10/13/2010
- 3. Progression Rates Grade Rate K 1.22 1 1.07 2 1.00 3 1.01 4 1.00 5 1.00 Based on five- year average 6 0.97 7 0.98 8 1.00 9 0.97 10 0.99 11 0.98 12 0.99
- 4. Year Rate Year Rate Year Rate 60-61 1.18 70-71 1.38 61-62 1.13 71-72 1.41 62-63 1.17 72-73 1.38 63-64 1.19 73-74 1.39 64-65 1.17 74-75 1.33 65-66 1.32 75-76 1.25 Historical Birth-to-K 56-57 1.03 66-67 1.21 76-77 1.49 57-58 1.12 67-68 1.37 77-78 1.30 Progression Rates 58-59 1.13 68-69 1.44 78-79 1.24 59-60 1.15 69-70 1.24 79-80 1.28 One year variations in Birth-to-K 80-81 1.27 90-91 1.03 00-01 1.00 progressions rates are common 81-82 1.14 91-92 1.02 01-02 1.02 82-83 1.05 92-93 1.07 02-03 1.08 The progression rate used in the 83-84 1.16 93-94 1.13 03-04 1.14 current enrollment report is 1.22, 84-85 0.97 94-95 1.14 04-05 1.05 the average over the past five years. 85-86 1.03 95-96 1.15 05-06 1.14 Average 86-87 0.93 96-97 1.26 06-07 1.10 The 2009 report used 1.19 87-88 1.18 97-98 1.14 07-08 1.19 88-89 1.09 98-99 1.03 08-09 1.20 1.22 89-90 1.03 99-00 0.99 09-10 1.31 10-11 1.32
- 5. Distribution of HistoricalBirth-to-K Progression Rates Incidence 20 15 10 5 0 .9 to .99 1.0 to 1.09 1.1 to 1.19 1.2 to 1.29 1.3 to 1.39 1.4 to 1.49 Average progression rate over the past 55 years is 1.18 Birth-to-K progression rates have exceeded or equaled 1.0 in all but three years: .97 in 1984-85, .93 in 1986-87 and .99 in 1999-2000. updated 10/18/2010
- 6. Wellesley Public Schools Comparison of Births and Kindergarten Enrollments Births Kindergarten Enrollment 390 391 393 394 400 361 360 362 344 351 354 352 354 330 316 315 352 348 343 333 335 341 342 329 330 328 284 300 305 286 273 277 268 269 247 251 252 219 200 201 100 0 89-90 90-91 91-92 92-93 93-94 94-95 95-96 96-97 97-98 98-99 99-00 00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 95-96 96-97 97-98 98-99 99-00 00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 projected 10/13/2010
- 7. Five Year AverageProgression Rates - A Ten Year Look 1.22 1.20 1.18 Birth to K 1.16 1.14 1 to 2 1.12 1.10 2 to 3 1.08 3 to 4 1.06 1.04 1.02 1.00 4 to K 0.98 0.96 0.94 0.92 Birth to K 1 to 2 2 to 3 3 to 4 4 to K 0.90 FY '02 FY '03 FY '04 FY '05 FY '06 FY '07 FY '08 FY '09 FY '10 FY '11 updated 10/18/2010
- 8. K - 5Enrollment and Classroom Projection FY12 through FY21 Projection Projection Actual Based on Current Census and Births Based on 224 Projected Births FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 Projection 2,365 2,284 2,227 2,154 2,002 1,927 1,842 1,797 1,761 1,724 1,754 Classroom sections 113 110 107 103 96 93 89 86 85 83 84 Variance from regular classrooms inventory 8 5 2 -2 -9 -12 -16 -19 -20 -22 -21 Regular classroom inventory = 105 Net enrollment change = -611
- 9. ELEMENTARY SCHOOL ENROLLMENTS Enrollment DECLINING BIRTHS 2500 2400 2300 2365 ACTUAL 2284 2200 2227 2100 2154 2000 2002 1900 1927 1800 1829 1700 1763 1697 1600 1662 1606 1500 1400 1300 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 October 1, ---- A very conservative scenario was developed to assess future enrollment should births dramatically decline. This scenario is based on a projected decline in births at a rate of 2.9% per year beginning after this year. 10/13/2010
- 10. K - 5Enrollment and Classroom Projection FY12 through FY21 Projection Projection Actual Based on Current Census and Known Births Based on a projected declining birth rate of 2.9%/year FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 Projection 2,365 2,284 2,227 2,154 2,002 1,927 1,829 1,763 1,697 1,622 1,606 Classroom sections 113 110 107 103 96 93 88 85 82 78 77 Variance from regular classrooms inventory 8 5 2 -2 -9 -12 -17 -20 -23 -27 -28 Regular classroom inventory = 105 Net enrollment change = -759
- 11. K - 12ENROLLMENTS Actual October 1 Enrollments through 2010 Enrollment Projected October 1 Enrollments 3250 21 years Elem Actual Elem Projected 3000 MS Actual MS Projected HS Actual HS Projected 2750 2500 2250 23 years 2000 1750 21 years 1500 1250 1000 750 500 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 October 1, ---- 10/19/2010
- 12. Actual vs. ProjectedEnrollment School Comparison School Projected Actual Variance Bates 419 406 -13 Fiske 379 372 -7 Hardy 299 296 -3 Hunnewell 291 304 13 Schofield 360 359 -1 Sprague 414 402 -12 Upham 230 226 -4 Total Elementary 2,392 2,365 -27 Middle School 1,120 1,135 15 High School 1,285 1,291 6 TOTAL 4,797 4,791 -6
- 13. Space Implications Elementary Classrooms – Continue to use modular classrooms and art and/or music rooms, as necessary – Continue to monitor and analyze individual school enrollments – NO REDISTRICTING FOR NEXT SCHOOL YEAR
- 14. Space Implications Middle SchoolClassroom Space – FY12 and beyond - reconfiguration of internal spaces • recommendation at STM on December 6, 2010 – Continue to monitor and analyze enrollment and space requirements
- 15. Space Implications High SchoolClassroom Space – FY12 - contingency funds in capital budget to reconfigure internal spaces if needed – FY13 - new building ready for occupancy – Continue to monitor and analyze enrollment and space requirements
- 16.